thaigene2

The above post by the New York Times' columnist about "The way GM goes, so goes America.." is just so true.

I couldn't believe my eyes the other day when I turned on TV in New York City to hear the local CBS channel 'business news bunny' telling me that Chrysler was giving its employees a 'mandatory two-week vacation'. In other words, it was shutting down its manufacturing lines for 2 weeks - to save money. They'll be selling off the fixtures from the executive washrooms next.

Two more little news nuggets:

1. I checked the Dow Jones graph for the year-to-year as it tells me more about the direction of a market than tracking just one month or three months. The result was 14,000 a year ago to around 11,000 at Friday's close - around a 20% drop. Now that may not be much given the climb it's had over 15 years or so. But am I the only one to think that even another 20-30% drop over the NEXT year wouldn't be a catastrophe for America and eventually the rest of the world? Continuing at this present rate, it would have lost 40% in two years..Could we live the lives we lived 15 years ago if the DJIA returned to the 2-3,000 levels? In other words, would things jusrt go back to the way they were? I doubt that.

2. The U.S. unemployment rate has now risen to 5.5%. Does 10% in another year from now sound that unlikely? And what would that mean if interest rates go higher, there are fewer jobs available, and you're overextended on your mortgage? Americans have, on average, negative-savings (in other words none, but with credit card debts, etc). How long could the average newly-unemployed working-class American with a mortgage last before losing his house? Two months? Three months?

The above debates in this thread are interesting, but to me it's not a question about being a pesimist or an optimist. It's a question of basic numeracy..You either get this or you don't I guess.

When I was working for government, we used to have huge crowds set up camp around the MOF and in the ministry compound. Literally living there, doing their cooking, sleeping. Surrounded by banners protesting whatever they were protesting. There would be the weekly 'gee-up' rally (probably when they got their pay), and then they would all go back to hanging around again.

The longest protest by a couple of hundered rice farmers went on for many months. It was an example of protest and democracy at work

(albeit rent-a-crowd democracy). It was a not to subtle way to reminded the minister and senior civil servants who drove in each morning.

Shame the PAD can't learn from those poor but simple 'farmers' and their peaceful demos - of course we know the reason is that the PAD don't want to protest they want their big brothers in the army to reset the clock of thailand's mentally-challenged view of democracy yet again - reset to the days of pooyai and poolek where everyone knows their place and where the poor should be grateful "they" let them vote at all..

The PAD movement = The Priviledged Against Democracy.

If a democractically elected Government were to resign because a minority of people are allowed (by their priviledged army friends) to roam the streets at will, lay seige to the parliament, etc, every time a government is elected that they don't like or threatens the middle-classes' patronage system - what would you call that? The word 'anarchy' comes to my mind.

And don't give me that nonesense about how everyone who voted for PPP was 'bought out' in cash. You know that's BS. The military, PAD and Democrat Party know it's BS too.

Don't forget - who was it that refused to allow international election monitors during the last election? The Pro-PAD Military installed government, that's who. And why? Because they knew the observers would report that more or less it was a fair vote.

To force these guys from office by mayhem on the streets - or worse by the army and their elite backers again (as incompetent and as agenda-driven they are by TRT forces behind the scenes) it is wrong and sends a clear message to the rest of the world, that Thailand doesn't recognize the right of governance brought about by one-person-one-vote.

from the website:

Flexible Options

Bangkok Bank offers a range of loan options tailored to meet your needs. We offer flexible lending and attractively low interest rates.

etc.

Not the info I was given two weeks ago at Bangkok Bank Asoke Branch, which was 40-50% down, max repayment term 10 years. But as most of us know, what one person says may not be what the actual situation is. I'd call up their head office or email them.

Some of the banks are now lending again in Thai baht to foreigenrs. Check UOB, Standard Charter, HSBC and perhaps even SCB. So the repayment is in Thai baht, but as with BBL there are big up front fees, and the way they calculate the interest seems a bit unexplained really. Does that mean they charge you the same way they charge on outstanding credit card fees? No thanks if that's the case.

You know h90, I'm just observing what the main international media are saying about this whole sorry state of affairs. The Economist, The BBC and others are saying the same thing as me. This is the minority elites trying to kick out Thakisn and his populist government(s). Problem is that little deomcracy thing keeps popping up.

Now then, I don't know what Radio Ostreich or others in Austria are saying (isn't the the only ultra-right wing whacko govt in Europe presently? Oh - sorry forgot Sarkozy!)

Incidentally your view of the "negotiations" involved in the alteration of Thai borders is misleading although has a sinilar drift to the hotchpotch of lies taught about history in Thai schools.Thailand or Siam was almost always on the back foot and reacting to the wishes of (and rivalry between) the great colonial powers.

I've always thought that too..If you look at Africa (esp) and East Asia, what you see is the Colonial Powers taking on strategic nations - but "trying" to avoid direct borders with each other (happened sometimes) because that would lead to more problems. So Thailand was a good 'buffer'. Anyone seriously think if any of the powers in those days had wanted to takeThailand they would have been stopped or afraid to proceed? Didn't stop the Japanese from occupying Thailand now did it?

Wheelin' and Dealin' with the PPP... from a wannabe-like Samak...

PPP Proposes Democrats Negotiate with PAD in Return for Censure Debate

A People Power Party MP has urged the opposition Democrat Party to negotiate with the People's Alliance for Democracy to stop the anti-government movement, saying he will ask the government to consider accepting the censure debate motion in exchange.

People Power Party MP for Maha Sarakam, Suthin Klangsaeeng, hosted a press conference today requesting that the Democrat Party help negotiate with the PAD to have them stop the ongoing anti-government movement.

Suthin says if the Democrat Party agreed with his proposal, he will ask the PPP-government to consider accepting the Democrat's censure debate motion submitted for the extraordinary Parliamentary session next month.

Suthin says that according to his plan, he will enlist 80 names of PPP MPs to request that the government consider accepting the debate motion.

When asked for evidence that other PPP MPs supported his opinion, Suthin merely said his prestige as a politician is a guarantee.

However, he said that personally, he agreed with the PPP-led government not to extend the special Parliamentary session as the censure debate proposed by the opposition party will not be good for the nation.

Suthin further added that the Democrat Party is responsible for the chaotic political situation at the moment.

The press reported that during the press conference, Suthin expressed his anger and opposed many of the questions posed by the press, especially when asked to clarify his sincerity in supporting the government to solve the national conflict. Before the end of the conference, the press were stopped from asking questions as the PPP MP shook his finger at reporters and asked them not to speak anymore.

- Thailand Outlook (today)

Clever move by the Government. Won't work of course as the Dems, the PAD, the military cronies, all those well-healed bureaucrats living way beyond their means, syncohants, etc, etc, have one goal - to find an excuse to have Big Brother Army step in on some trumped up charge to throw out the elected government and stamp out once and for all 'populism' - you can't have populism in a country that relies on oligarchy and guanxi - it would never work. They're as scared of that as they were of communism in the 1970s.

Anyway, I'm glad to see the US and others have made it clear to Thailand that they won't ride the fence this time. If the minority elites force a coup, they'll get punished for it. But my guess is they'll do it anyway as they think they have too many priviledges to lose otherwise..so to them it's worth it.

Good to know that there is a "Democrats Abroad" camp to esnure overseas Democrats get to vote, and that there is no such "Republican" thingy here in Thailand..

Assuring - but I'll wait til election-day-plus-one to party since we've all been so dumbfounded by the outcomes before.

Sorry for ranting Off-Topic. Will not get lured back (I hope)

Would You Support Another Coup?

yes I would ..... a peaceful coup that would bring a ban for life from politics that symbol of wishy washy liberalism, hypocrite khun Abhisit Vejjajiva and any member of his party. A coup that would instal a government charged to look into visas held by some expats, especially the decrepit, garrulous pensioner/fake-teacher variety. Get rid of them and Thailand would be better for it.

Would it be ok if they also got rid of the decrepit, garrulous retired US "servicemen" pensioners while they're at it?

Yeah... good ideas... tie 'em up then stack them on top of each other llike cord wood in the back of trucks... that'll get 'em out of here.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Guess you're from elsewhere than the USA. If not for those US service men you might be speaking Russian or German now.

From the tone of your post maybe you already do.

How cavalier to speak that way about people who had their lives on the line for others.

But having passed comments like that I guess you just don't get it and for sure have never been in combat...

Sorry, you missed the facetiousness of my response to a couple of trolling posts.

Frankly, Sriracha John, I don't give a rat's ass how many posts you have. Your kind are a joke. You and "Pepe" hide behind this veneer that you have fought the valiant fights (or did you?) - but all you and your prophets did was bring us to the unbridled capitalist state we're in now. Look at America - if that's what you think is the model state. What is there? Lower and middle class people losing their health and their homes because they got sucked into the "Consumerist" dream - is that what Ameica was supposed to be about...NO WAY, it was supposed to be about a country that looked after its own - but you hold nothing but contempt for that idea, don't you??! Instead, you've got CNBC and a government that now looks for skapegoats when the idiocy of the whole consumerism thing was obvious to anyone who didn't swallow all that bullshit at lest twenty years ago, if not from the get-go!

Yeah, sure, Maj. Smith - you're a hero. We salute what YOU thought you were fighting for (and I do actually mean that), but look where we are now. So who ya going to blame now "Them Commies" - what a joke. Blame yourselves - blame your countries. Blame us all. Then go wave your flag.

You and all your "Major Frank A. Smith, U.S. Army (retired)" nutters that keep sending that crap to the Bangkok Post 'Post Bag"

Trying to sell our house, 100% failure rate so far, all who visited were turned down by the banks.

Speaking about loans, this chart is troubling.

Why the total (oustanding) credit by commercial banks explodes litteraly since february ?

What's going on ?

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2008/06/17...-and-of-growth/

On one hand we have an explosion of loans (in volume), but people on the ground who are turned down by banks, and banks themselves who are increasing their lending rates (beginning of june)... It's like credit is tightening... but meanwhile like a bubble.

Something is wrong. Something is missing.

Yeah, well it's the question I keep asking right? How many thai-chinese well healed 'kids' out there (ok 30ish) are buying places on credit to "rent" to farangs at inflated prices - then learning there aren't that many farangs to rent to?? (perhaps they missed their homework on business plans apparently en route to their paid-for MBAs?) versus how many are using credfit to traditionally buy-to-live-in? (different story of course - as long as they keep their jobs - they'll struggle but get by).

Do you think this is the beginning of the answer?

250$ a barrel at least.

It's not that bad right now when compared to :

Lipton Iced Tea 16 oz $1.19 ..........$9.52 (gallon)

Gatorade 20 oz $1.59 .... $10.17 (gallon)

Ocean Spray 16 oz $1.25 ......... $10.00 ( gallon)

Vick's Nyquil 6 oz $8.35 ... $178.13(gallon)

Pepto Bismol 4 oz $3.85 .. $123.20 (gallon)

Scope 1.5 oz $0.99 ....$84.48 (gallon)

Evian Water 9 oz $1.49 $21.49 a gallon !

Trying to sell our house, 100% failure rate so far, all who visited were turned down by the banks.

You forgot wine under Thai customs windfalls - average 75cl bottle is around - what - 600 baht? So multiple by 4 for a rough gallon and you get 2,400 Baht per gallon or 96,000 Baht per 40 gallon barrel (is that right, 40 gallon drums?). So at 32 baht to the USD that's 3,000 DOLLARS PER BARREL.

Hmm..know what I'd rather have.

To those that seem so confident that the price oil oil will fall dramatically

soon what about the ever-increasing possibility of a preemptive strike

by Israel against Iran ?

I think you raise a good point. Is Iranian oil purchased by the US or Europe? (not that it wouldn't have an impact - I agree- I ask because I don't know).

Last time I checked Alberta had provincial income tax, but no sales tax.

There is a big flaw in this poll (as often !),

No there isn't.

Would You Support Another Coup?

yes I would ..... a peaceful coup that would bring a ban for life from politics that symbol of wishy washy liberalism, hypocrite khun Abhisit Vejjajiva and any member of his party. A coup that would instal a government charged to look into visas held by some expats, especially the decrepit, garrulous pensioner/fake-teacher variety. Get rid of them and Thailand would be better for it.

Would it be ok if they also got rid of the decrepit, garrulous retired US "servicemen" pensioners while they're at it?

Yeah... good ideas... tie 'em up then stack them on top of each other llike cord wood in the back of trucks... that'll get 'em out of here.

Sort of a Thak Bai of old grey haired pony tails, no? But then there would be no "Seargent William A. Smith, US Army (retired)" to amuse us in the Bangkok Post - flaming away about "them commies" and how the wonderful Thai class-system is so correct.

Johnpa, I am glad to hear that you are not one of those bitter expats that I so frequently run into here on TV, as far as the high mucky muck from Exxon is concerned, what would you expect him to say, that oil should be at $45-$50/bbl? (of course not). The boys at Exxon are loving this bubble as they are setting new net profit records each and every quarter. Here's a free tip, don't put too much faith into what the talking heads are saying on CNBC or Bloomberg as they are generally talking up their book just as the Exxon executive was doing. If you took a few minutes and did some DD of your own you would have found out that a year ago the price of oil was in the $65-$70/bbl range (and even at that level there was a $15 or so of speculation priced in), then if you dug a little further you would have found out that oil use in the U.S. has been down 4% over that last 12 months, and worldwide it has been flat to down 1%. Now my friend all you have to do is connect the dots, you have a commodity that at best has had a flat usage demand over the last 12 months and yet the price has more than doubled during that same timeframe. You don't need to be a Milton Friedman or a John Maynard Keyenes to figure this one out, oil has replaced gold as an inflation hedge and when that hedge comes off the price of oil will tumble, the price of gold will crash, and barring an Obama victory the dollar will strengthen qiute markedly. Please feel free to continue posting about the books you are reading and how they are telling you that oil is going to $200/bbl ect. ect., but when the oil market does break down and the speculators are in a panic to sell off their positions, remember this post of mine

I think you're right that the bubble will burst and prices will tumble faster than they rose. However, don't read too much into the flat demand in the U.S. The bubble and speculation has formed because of rising demand in the East and South Asia - not because of the US - rather in spite of it.

But it's funny how there's always an 'oil' crisis whenever a Texas Bush is in office though, huh? Mayhem in Iraq, Kuwait, always good for the US oil companies..

On the other hand, southern Alberta is awash in cash from this because the US oil companies there are taxed and the money used for the province and its people. Around the first 'crisis' in Gulf War One, the province paid off its debt. It is the only state/province in N America (best of my knowledge) that is 'debt-free' - ("debt" free - not just deficit free). And they have universal health care (like the rest of Canada) and good state schools - also free. The kicker is that the province has been run by right-of-center politicians for decades..not "loony-lefties"..

Would You Support Another Coup?

yes I would ..... a peaceful coup that would bring a ban for life from politics that symbol of wishy washy liberalism, hypocrite khun Abhisit Vejjajiva and any member of his party. A coup that would instal a government charged to look into visas held by some expats, especially the decrepit, garrulous pensioner/fake-teacher variety. Get rid of them and Thailand would be better for it.

Would it be ok if they also got rid of the decrepit, garrulous retired US "servicemen" pensioners while they're at it?

When the politicians are leading the nation into talking down the Baht, the best thing to do is to PANIC.

Joseph Kennedy was the president of an American bank. He invested in shares. Then he heard all the talk about a "bubble", and ANTICIPATED the Wall Street Crash. He panicked first, and got his money out in time.

There followed the great depression. Nobody had any jobs.

However, to be rich it is not sufficient to have money. Others have to be poor. If everybody is rich, they will demand huge sums for their services. This lowers the value of the currency. If you are rich and they are poor, you can stretch out the money, and get huge amounts of service from others.

Joseph Kennedy had made himself into the richest Irish-American.

I recommend to all that you prevail upon your politicians to call off the "poor-mouthing", and the "bubble babble". If they don't listen, you should panic.

Charles Douglas Wehner

Dear Charles,

Joseph Kennedy was a Mafia bootlegger, a gangster. Kennedy was Irish. Another very successful Mafioso was a Welsh guy called Griffiths. Never heard of him? Quelle surprise!

Joe Kennedy was so successful a gangster, he was able to go legitimate, respectable. In other words, he had earned so much money he was able to join what I call the Aristocratic Mafia - that is a tiny minority of unimaginable wealth & power. These Mafiosi operate from the great banks. They own our world.

They engineered the 1929 Wall Street Crash. Then they bought gilt-edged for pennies in the dollar. To realize the potential of those assets in the resulting Great Depression, they financed Adolf Hitler & WWII. Result, a BOOM in the strategic industries they had bought.

Fantastic nonsense? Ah, so most people believe. That is why the magnificently malignant minority gets away with it, time & time again.

Please folks, stop blaming the little sharks of Thailand, the Bangkok Bandits. There are much bigger fish out there waiting to snap them up.

George Bush II & the Aristocratic Mafia use robbery with violence to steal the oil of Iraq. They then engineer the oil panic to push prices thru the roof. The Aristocratic Mafia owns the mass media. As long as you schmucks swallow their fairy stories about economics & politics, the big cruising sharks continue to get away with mass murder & extortion. Old git Tom

What about America's constant support for Israel? Regardless of Bush/Obama - Any mafia involed there? Just wondering..

When the politicians are leading the nation into talking down the Baht, the best thing to do is to PANIC.

Joseph Kennedy was the president of an American bank. He invested in shares. Then he heard all the talk about a "bubble", and ANTICIPATED the Wall Street Crash. He panicked first, and got his money out in time.

There followed the great depression. Nobody had any jobs.

However, to be rich it is not sufficient to have money. Others have to be poor. If everybody is rich, they will demand huge sums for their services. This lowers the value of the currency. If you are rich and they are poor, you can stretch out the money, and get huge amounts of service from others.

Joseph Kennedy had made himself into the richest Irish-American.

I recommend to all that you prevail upon your politicians to call off the "poor-mouthing", and the "bubble babble". If they don't listen, you should panic.

Charles Douglas Wehner

I agree with you actually. The signs are there -it may be time for wire transfer at least.

Regular bullshit from Miss Tarisa.

Like Bernanke, she discovers that there is an inflation problem, that cutting interest rates would be bad, so that it would be good to increase rates...

So do it !

None of these guys here know what to do - including her. The homegrown have no cognitive understanding of anything (speaks volumes about the artificial control over education here doesn't it?). The real concern should be the change in value of the baht. But they have no way to counter it. The same could be said for China actually, excpet the only thing that saves China from getting whacked is their currency control - for now.

so if you have a cash surplus there may be a few bargains?

Keep your powder dry. BOT is in there now trying to support the baht at below 33. They learned NOTHING from 1997. Morons.

Give it 1 to 2 years & you will get some stunning buys on Condos.

Yep - agree with that advice.

I just love how this always turns into the TRT were the "only" vote buyers in Issan story..

ALL THE main parties used to REGULARLY go into ALL these areas of the country and show off their cash and how 'poo-yai' they were with big cash for the 'poo-lek'.

Nobody had to vote for anyone of course (though they were expected to vote - sicne they were given cash - the idea was that they WOULD VOTE - and preferrably for the guy who gave them cash). The Democrats slowed this down to a trickle in Issaan as they knew it was a waste of money AND becuase they wasnted to use it as the weapon you now see unfolding (rather laughably actually..like so many of their weak minded ideas - rich kids who paid someone else to do their theses..how rich but how 'ordinary' they really are - they'd never cut it in the West.).

That's it. Ce tout. "set laou"

Wait for the US recession to kick in. The oil price story will be yesterday's news as China and India growth slow (fewer exports to US and eventually Europe), and demand for all commodities (inc. oil, steel) slows, and the latent ramping up of oil supplies at that near-future moment finds it no longer has a market demand.

Economics 101. But something CNBC doesn't tell ya about.

Sorry for the edit - forgot to say that defense/defence companies will be the long-haul stocks to watch. You heard it here first. (now sell those Houston and Alberta assets while the gettin's good - steel too - bail on Mittal).

The condo market is going to a new direction - and that is fascinating..

The GREAT thing for all is that Sino-Thai "Brats" have been buying not just to let but to LIVE in. A big change that will haunt the Thai establishment for years to come. When the market drops, and the rents remain static (with no one to rent to)...and grand-daddy with the sino-thai face and the silk shirt (who co-signed the loan) has to cough up the cash burried in the garden from his portion of his support for the last coup/public works program, to pay off Junior's stupid purchase - then THERE IS YOUR ANSWER, my friend.

What's your point?

If they bought through credit to rent out then the whole traditional Thai paradigm of 'prices never drop' will change. If they purchased with cash then it's an investment that just sits there but no big deal.

PKRV's Hampstead maissonette will, like all properties in London, also be affected by the UK property downturn.

My main point is that when you itnroduce a lot of Thais into the condo market ON CREDIT as I believe has been happening for the last 2-3 years as speculators, and they run out of renters or property prices soften in general, then the overall direction will be down - not sideways like last time.

Surely you were around for some of the modern revolutions which were extremely violent and deadly;

Russia 1905 & 1917, Cuba 1956-1959, China 1931-1949, Vietnam (It started as a communist revolution),Hungary 1956, Mexico 1911, Algeria 1954-1962, Biafra 1967-1970, Eritrea (1961-1991), Sandanistas in Nicaragua 1978-79, Guatemala 1978, El Salvador 1980.

You forgot some of the bloodiest and nastiest of all. Overthrow of Chile's Allende by Pinochet (that 'nice old man'..backed by Uncle Sam wasn't he?), Argentina, the Contras in central America backed by Uncle Sam were worse than the Sandanistas, and let's not forget the grand-daddy of them all - the Spanish Civil War against right-wing fascists which the free democracy-loving people of Spain bravely fought but lost.

History teaches us a lot you're right - never forget that it is the rich who use the poor to fight their wars in order to protect and/or furtehr their own interests...that's the golden rule.