drummer

You have the option of a null vote. So right now, 6/41 votes weer "I don't wanna vote, I jut wanna see the results"

sdo you mean the initial poll or are you responding to the previous message? If it is the initial poll, the first choice is "Not affected".... But you do bring up a point. This should be people in Thailand now. hmmmm

No - it isn't scientific, neither are the numbers I was crunching earlier - just the best picture I can get without leaving my computer chair The results would certainly be limited to active TV posters who visit the Visa Information section... and often. The percentage results after the first day (almost 100 votes) is very similar to the current results (160 votes)

In order to help get a better picture, we should take a tally of how many of the farangs/non-thais we know (who are/not active thaivisa members) are either leaving or staying.

You could phrase it like

*I personally have already left/am about to leave

*Everyone I know is still here

*I know 1 person who has left/about to leave

*I know 2 people who have left/about to leave

*I know 3 people who have left/about to leave

*I know more than three people who have left.

Except, mybe phrase it more so it would be clear that the respondant knows the person, well, personally, not simply a friend-of-a-friend kinda thing.

Incidentally, to that end, one in 20 seem to have already left or are in the process of it.

OOPS! You are quite right - Zimbabwe:sorry: thanks

All the new "B" visas and many of the newly issues "O" visas are going to increase Tax revenue. Certainly more beneficial to the country than having them running bars etc and not contributing to the economy.

Actually, those bar owners aer contributing to the economy and increasing tax revenue no matter if they aer actually paying tax themselves or not. They buy beer frmo Singh, which pys tax, they pay rent, which pays tax, they buy stuff @ 7-11, which pays tax, nd they buy food from the Som Tham lady, who may not pay tax, but SHE pys rent, buys stuff @ 7-11, etc etc.

Of course, tax income is greater if the bar owners pay tax, and I am a proponent of getting everyone to pay their fair share. Just pointing out that what you said wasn't strictly true, and it is good to keep in mind the reality of the situation when considering policy.

Doing this just because they fit a sense of morality ends up with policy's like Mugabe's returning all farmlnds to native (black) Nigerians - it turned Nigeria from Africa's biggest food exporter to africa's biggest food importer by giving all the farms to people who knew nothing about farming.

The idea itself, by itself, is morally sound, but its unintended consequences - well, weren't so productive

Agree. Some Filipinos who I talked to don't even seem to WANT to know the new rules. Even worse, they wait for some "favorable" rumor to come around (such as that the new rules "won't push thru") and then use that favorable rumor to give themselves "peace of mind" to continue on with what they're doing.

Similar to the "being in denial" thing. Sad.

Of course, it could be a more accurate reading of the situition .... we don't know yet!

According to the poll results so far, it looks like 2/3rd are not affected.

Why do people that are unaffected by the new visa regulations read this board, let alone vote here?

I would hazard a guess and say that the largest percentage of regular posters here are long term residents and only a small percentage are visa runners.

The results from this poll couldn't even come close to indicating the real situation.

I phrased the question so as to include them - at least I tried to. A lot of visa runners are in fact (semi)permanent residents - even if unofficially. I would suspecct the largest group you are not hearing from in the polls is the group that has already left. I wouldn't be back now, except I am curious to see how things are turning out because I'm married with children now.

I suspect you are right as well... from personal experience most farang are visa running. Good point as well, in that most of the people who look in this section in particular are asking about the non-imm visas, and as such the surery would be weighted heavily toward them. I wonder if I were to make another thread in teh general catagory if it would have a different result? That would be weighted toward the non-imm holding group as well, but less so, I expect. Can't tell, really.

I never figured this to be a scientific survey anyway, though - just a ballpark figure.

PS What , pray , is the difference between "No change (already

illegal-overstay)" and "Permanent overstay". Just the level

of optimism ?

Laws are like religion... meant primarily for the weak minded who can't adequately manage their lives without published rules and guidelines.

They say that the system is best if everyone follows the rules, BUT YOU. The next est is everyone follows he rules, but you and a few others. Then everyone follows the rules, lastly nobody follows the rules.

It seems to me that humans have, until very recently, all lived in societies that largely governed themselves. Populations have been too small to do anything but.

i'll give that job a crack as id make a top moderator and i have first hand experience.

Then we would need a moderator to moderate the moderator.

According to the poll results so far, it looks like 2/3rd are not affected. Half of those left have made themselves legal already, (whether legally or illegally) If new rules actually get in place, it looks like up to half of the guys on VOAs might leave - that would be somewhere around 200-300 thousand Europeans. This would seem to be the potential number, given the results of the polls and the numbers of back-to-back visa runners according to border Immigration numbers.

Of course, everyone is waiting to see what the new rules really are. If they start limiting Tourist visas, then the number of those departing would probably get a lot higher. If they make some sort of residency plan, then I expect most people would stay.

I tually turned down 2 lob offers with work permits when I left. I don't like the uncertainty game. Also, I make more money when the economy does well, and this wuld seem to indicate that the the government is more concerned with ideology than reality ... Look at Bush, Mugabe and Mao to see where that gets you... My own 2 satang is that they are trying to get farang to leave, and are probably going to make it harder to get a tourist visa locally. They are already making it harder to get a non-Imm visa and work permits.

At the end of the day very few countries make life difficult for their own citizen's foreign spouse, LOS seems to be one of them.

I wonder if Thailnd's de facto bygamy has anything to do with this attitude? i.e. Why is this so important when you probably have another wife or two back home?

Watch your steps! There is a POLITICAL/"IDEOLOGICAL" drive behind the new rules, it's very obvious.

While there were a number of reasons for my departure, this was a big one. I'm not going to wait around to see how bad things get, or if they merely remain uncomfortable. I don't need it.

This is just to see where TV posters are sitting with their visas. There are lots of reports of this and that. This is to see where you, personally, are. cheers

When you see a traffic cop in any country he is not spying on every driver passing him by, just looking for ones breaking the rules.

It could be that the Pu-Yai-Baan is just doing his job, but personally, I'd respect his reputation as being a neer-do-well and cover your bases as much as you can.

I rather suspect that the amount of 'sending wealth home' has far more to do with income potential than culture. Certainly, Asians respect their parents to a far greater degree than Westerners, and the Asian obligation (hey that'd make a good band name, along with Iranian Uranium) to give them financial help is a lot stronger, but the real mechanism is purely the income potential gradient.

I think another more important factor is the amount of manufacturing, which also puts Asia at an advantage. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I know America is running big trade deficits, and countries like Vietnam and China, and likely Thailand, are exporting more than they import. I don't doubt the conclusion, just that there are a lot more things going on.

My son has to enter the Thai miliary to keep his Thai citizenship. His American passport is his birthright. I certainly agree with your conclusion there. Personally, I suspect that a multicultural society is stronger than a homogenous one.

As far as the topic at hand, I'd like to add my 2 satang that the US+Europe generally have a better working system. First, if you are a tourist you should apply for a tourist visa. If you are an immirant you apply for an immirgant visa. The US doesn't want a lot of tourists (especially after 9-11) so it makes it really hard to get in. I think this is stupid, but still it is what it is (thanks, Bush). Also, tourists are a liability for illegal immigration. The key here is that there are reasonable options available for those who want to immigrate legally.

Thailand, like it has been said before, has a broken system. They want to keep all the immigrants out, while keeping all the tourists in. It is not fair, it impractable and inconsistent.

Comparing one tourist visa to another directly isn't accurate because Thailand encourages all tourism and the US generally discourages international tourism - apparantly there is a new system to discourage Americans from going abroad. Thanks, Bush!

This is surely a strange time for the implementation of new drastic immigration laws with largely unpredictable effets. It definitely seems to be more "ideological" than carefully thought-out.

It is the most natural of times! Thats when most ideologically driven changes occur - at the hands of the new rulers.

Interesting discussion. The only thing I have to say is that took the estimated numbers of European longstay "tourists" and calculated their cumulative income - the conservative estimate came to 0.5% of the Thai GDP. That is Europeans only. No, its not a need, but it is a lot. That is the longstayer, not the real tourist. Most of their money is spent in 'non-tourist' sectors.

It is my feeling that the financial impact of the longstayer is higher than many expect (although hardly the only reason Thailand is doing better than its war-wracked neighbors)

Additionally, LOS has the most inhumane VISA rules for married couples. In the US and EU, if you are married to locals it is as easy as pie to get a VISA to stay with your family. In LOS, they treat you like dirt... WHAT A SHAME!

You should spend some time reading the followig threads : Visas and migration to other countries

Then come back and read your statement that it is easy to get visa to US and EU

it is not easy it is either a lottery or a humiliating experience they have to got through

I assure you it is niether, Krub. As a farang married to a Thai, I still have to do border runs. I can't buy land, I can't get a job without the work permit process (I can't take any job a Thai can do, and they company actually has to go through all the paperwork+expense)

We are currently applying for a spousal visa for my wife, which will go through. It is a lot of paperwork, and it takes a few months, true. But when she gets it she will be able to dow hat she wants. She can become an American if she wants. This is something I wouldn't never be able to do in Thailand - whether I could obtain a passport or not.

You have made this comment before, and it is starting to sound like sour grapes after a percieved loss of face more than anything. It is clearly not a lottery (or do you posit that a rice worker from Khorat has the same chance of getting a tourist visa as you? )

If you want to talk about the outflow of wealth and assets + investment in one's local environment: given the nature (broad generalization alert, and it varies of course) of Asian cultures vs. western cultures, this results in an outflow of wealth and assets from western countries more than it does from Asian countries.

Actually, I'd expect that in the last 200 years the outflow of wealth has benefitted Europe - colonialism really had a way of doing that. For example, after Hernan Cortes conquored Mexico City, he sent 7 thousand tons of silver to Europe and more than one thousand tons of gold. Thats more than double what all of Europe had. And where is Mexico today?

Of course, Thailand itself was never colonized, so I guess thats a bit of a tangent.

Also, the US is importing TRILLIONS in loans, laregly from Asia. But I guess this doesn't cuont, either.

Taking the GSE is like sticking a cork up your .... you don't have a bowel movement for 12 hours and when it does it is solid. Again, I'd highly recommend it. Some people think its a uer-all ... I doubt that, but it does work for diahhrea...

the latter. too many holes in the story. The kids of all the immigrants I know are bilingual if their parents - even one of them - doesn't speak English. how fdid the Mom talk to her son? Her son was six years in Thailand? come on!

Either a troll or a candidate for Mr. Gullible ...

This means that all Nigerians are dealing coke? I met an Italian guy who got busted for dealing drugs, as well as several Scandanavians. All those darned Vikings - nothing better to do than sling hash! I also know another black American who got arrested fo dealing coke because he's black, not because he did it!

I don't doubt your story - I have met more than a few African dealers in BKK ... they really make themselves known! But, on the other hand, I have met the same number of evangelicals. A lot of them live near Pratunam as well, and seem to work there.

I expect that a higher percentage of Nigerians by nationality deal drugs than most other nationalities. On the other hand, this has nothing whatsoever to do with their bodies, and this is a stereotype. Most Nigerians don't deal drugs - most are in legitimate businesses (or are evangelicals. )

I think you lot need to reed The Clash of Civilisations and the Remaking of World Order by Samuel P. Huntington to find out what a civilization is in the first place and how they developed and why. The keys to early development lie in food security and storage which then leads to development from hunter gatherer existance because people don't have to spend all day looking for food and can become soldiers or artisans for instance. Now you can protect your village, develop further technologically and invade and grow etc etc.

Good book.

Good book, but pretty much total BS regarding the keys to early Civilization. Hunter Gatherers spend LESS of their day working than not... Strange but true. Most of the antropology on hunter gatherers is BS. They are strangely LESS reliant on weather patterns for their food than agriculturalists. They have smaller groups that can move around and know a billion food sources and water sources. That line of reasoning sounded good at the time so it got accepted without any actual testing.

It is actually settling down in one location itself that dose that - once you have a villiage you have to protect it. you have to store food because your coverage area is much smaller and your population tends to be larger. Necessity is the mother of invention, not spare time or extra food!

I think I missed something ... where is the vitriol coming from? Did you wake up on the wrong side of a ladyboy last night?

There comes a time when even a close blood relative, even a son or daughter, can go too far, and supporting them becomes not supporting them.

But you are in Asia, and your wife is Thai. they haev different mores and expectation. ANY time there is a conflict of any sort, both parties lose face. One gains face by dealing with the situation calmly. Not inviting her would be a loss of face for the whole family, and inviting her would be a gain of face for you.

My brother didn't invite our sister to his wedding - they fued constantly - and it majorly harmed his relationship with our parents to this day! IMHo better to put up with her. Everyone who matters sees what a c**t she is...

As a homo erectus, I think that last remark resembles me.

If colder climate makes for better workers and a more organized culture, what would explain the pyramids in the deserts of Egypt and the Yucatan, jungles of Guatemala, etc.? The Mayas discovered zero before Europe did, had a more accurate calendar, etc., and some Maya closely resemble the Hill Tribes of northern Thailand. And how could the Mongols from the frozen wastelands of Asia conquer Europe?

It's too complex to explain in 74 posts on ThaiVisa, or 3,989 pages of advanced textbooks in anthropology.

I met a Slovenian recently. He teaches English. Same with the Belgians. But the guy from Sierra Leone taught it better.

Not necessarily organized cultures (as heat does not stop law and order), but extreme creativity.

Creativity? Descartes got a lo of his best ideas hen lying around in bed because he was too lazy to get up... That is a stretch even without considering the definistion of creativity, or how creativity is affected by temperature, now without considering even how creativity manifests itself in various cultures.

Twas just a thought. But correct me if I am wrong, most companies do not expect people to come up with bright ideas in an office environment that is 40C. Room temperature or below is standard. Honestly speaking, how creative are you in the sweltering heat. Most people are miserable and just want to figure out a way to cool down. Now then how creative are you when the weather is colder?

A god question, I expect, but nowhere on earth is it 40C all the time - or even most of he time. Most civilizations live near major water sources. That would give an easy solution for cooling off, wouldn't it? Sitting in the shade? There are a LOT of ways...

Leave a kid in the mud and he will mold a mud house. Leave one on the beach and he will build a sand castle. The civilizations you refer to built buildings, and temples, not steam engines and light bulbs. Their creativity was not limitless.

Actually, modern neurophysiology and astrophysics are mining ancient Indian ideas for insight and coming up with great success in a testable scientific framework. Isan was the site of the the first ever bronze smelting (although that would probably be the Khmers - Thailand took Issan from Laos and forcibly imported a great many Laotians into Issan in the 1800s)

The civilizations I refer to built a great many things, they were ONLY behind in the industrial revolution. And they are catching up rapidly. Just read any foreign policy periodical!!! They built aquaducts, made fine art, almost certainly had complex music forms.

Besides there is a theory that people from the Mediterranean area (presumably Atlantis) sailed to the Americas and it is through them that we have structures similar to those found in Egypt. Caves have also been discovered that have drawings that show the great flood which only supports the theory of sea travelers.

Being able to count and tell time is almost basic The desire to divide, ravage and pillage is a power trip.

But like I said, it was just a thought.

Being able to tell time is basic - you look at the sun. Being able to tell time exactly is a lot harder and more comlpex.

The Phoenecians (aka Carthagenians) were a thesselaocracy and took their saiing secrets to the grave when the Romans invaded and killed everyone, razed their cities and salted their farmlands. They very well may have discovered America before Columbus. The Vikings did, and the Pacific Islanders almost certainly came and went constantly, as they could travel all the way around the Pacific in a month. (Pacific islanders, BTW, are genetically close to native Taiwanese... )