ADB Flags Thailand Slowest Growth in ASEAN for 2026

The manipulation of the too expensive THB does is doing more damage to the country than they know, It makes export of things expensive, while the same products in other countries are cheaper. surely for longer contracts. Besides it is also for the tourists that they have to pay more for their holiday, while for example Vietnam is cheaper for similar holiday. The retirees get less income if their pensions, because of the expensive THB, with a result they spend less too. Just a few examples of the damage, but it seems that nobody cares as long as there is some grow. And as usual in Thailand, only when the problems are huge, action will be taken. And with the new government nothing will change soon.

Although I downloaded the Report yesterday, and I have not read it, but I have skimmed portions on Thailand.

There is really nothing new here (except maybe in the details) - old problems/issues which recent governments have failed to address.

The chickens are coming home to roost - and with the concurrent oil, gas, fertilizer, plastics, etc. shocks, it is not going to be pleasant.

With the reduction in tourism, I am quite sure that GDP will be negative in 2026. However, someone will cook the books towards the end of the year to show how "well" the country is doing.

It will increase again as soon as they reduce the visa free periods for tourists to 30 days…😎😎😎

I can think of many countries who would be glowing to have a GDP growth rate like this .. yes it's not fantastic but starmer and co in the UK should take note ...

Meanwhile:

Vietnam's tourism sector in Q1 2026 achieved a record-breaking start, welcoming 6.76 million international visitors, a 12.4% year-on-year increase, driven by expanded visa policies and strong demand from China and South Korea.

Vietnam is targeting 45-50 million foreign arrivals annually by 2030, representing average growth of 16-19% a year from now.

Thailand: buy some submarines and frigates.

People miss the important issue which is that it is the QUALITY of GDP that counts. How is part of the GDP figures positive when some of this "growth" will be to do with the border war with Cambodia. Growth can come from more Police and more Prisons. Should we be cheering about this achievement ? Also growth is often concentrated in a few privileged sectors - so this is good too ?

There are so many factors that play here certainly the drop in tourism has hurt but still has the drop in the quality of tourists and they're spending power and that is entirely the fault of the government and visa policy.

Thailand is becoming less attractive for foreign investment for a number of reasons a lot of companies are shifting from Thailand to Vietnam, or India or elsewhere. Other nations are offering more attractive tax policy and more incentives for foreign companies to invest.

Thailand's unwillingness and inability to improve its infrastructure in regard to the highways and the regional airports is a bit of an abomination, and has to be considered a factor on several levels.

Lastly the difficulties that foreigners face when it comes to investing in Thailand, building and buying homes, and buying land is another stumbling block, and is based entirely on fear. Also, the strength of the Thai baht is an inhibiting factor and for many of us it feels artificially high.

30 minutes ago, Dogbarker said:

I can think of many countries who would be glowing to have a GDP growth rate like this .. yes it's not fantastic but starmer and co in the UK should take note ...

That’s a false equivalence. UK is a mature economy, Thailand, like the others (Vietnam, India, Indonesia) is a developing economy and that’s who they should be measured against and compared to which Thailand is doing very badly. Its poor and worsening performance in the Pisa educational tables (including English proficiency) are a key determinant of why - and too the political situation. The outlook for Thailand is really quite poor and will take a generation to fix, even if addressed now. There’s no inclination to do so, so expect more of the same, sadly.

Overall the Thai economy and the Thai people would benefit from a reduction in the value of the Baht. Powerful Thai overseas investors , however and as ever, do not agree so no change is likely.

1.8%..naah, try 1.3%. The petrolium crisis Thailand is in now will not likely not become any better until mid-2027. A few Thb drops in pump prices, maybe? that's all. Most of the daily products we consume will in a short time increase in price, and the poor will get a lot poorer!

This is just another desperate effort to try to keep Thailands Credit rating as present. Still, I think Thailand will be downgraded. That will have another huge and critical impact on Thailands economy. The main issue is that the government needs to borrow money at a higher interest to keep itself floating. Investors/money lenders will ask for higher interest because the risk is higher.

The one and only positive issue in this equation, Thailand still has a quite big "vault" of foreign currencies.

But will that be enough for new investors? Or will the trust in the Thb, slowly (or quick?) Fade?

The BIG question is, when will we see a significant drop in the Thb value vs. other currencies?..

Economy is a basket case from decades of political incompetence, sadly I don't see that changing any time soon

Can you still call a developing country a developing country if its growth rate is this low? It could be argued that the development of such a country has stopped.

3 hours ago, milesinnz said:

People miss the important issue which is that it is the QUALITY of GDP that counts. How is part of the GDP figures positive when some of this "growth" will be to do with the border war with Cambodia. Growth can come from more Police and more Prisons. Should we be cheering about this achievement ? Also growth is often concentrated in a few privileged sectors - so this is good too ?

this is sarcasm, right? 555

7 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

The manipulation of the too expensive THB does is doing more damage to the country than they know, It makes export of things expensive, while the same products in other countries are cheaper. surely for longer contracts. Besides it is also for the tourists that they have to pay more for their holiday, while for example Vietnam is cheaper for similar holiday. The retirees get less income if their pensions, because of the expensive THB, with a result they spend less too. Just a few examples of the damage, but it seems that nobody cares as long as there is some grow. And as usual in Thailand, only when the problems are huge, action will be taken. And with the new government nothing will change soon.

Be careful not to critizise the corruption, some expats are very sensetive about this issue.

In the end to increase more tourism: get the Baht down like we had in Thaksin's roaring early 2000s when Europeans flocked here and happily brought property & holiday homes. When the Baht hovers between 40 to 42 Baht to £ ( before ATM charges) its not a good look. Back then it was circa 50+ to £.

Poor government leaders with little or nothing in the way of original, bold ideas. When something new and progressive is somehow finally proposed, it's talked to death in useless committee after useless committee.

4 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

There are so many factors that play here certainly the drop in tourism has hurt but still has the drop in the quality of tourists and they're spending power and that is entirely the fault of the government and visa policy.

Thailand is becoming less attractive for foreign investment for a number of reasons a lot of companies are shifting from Thailand to Vietnam, or India or elsewhere. Other nations are offering more attractive tax policy and more incentives for foreign companies to invest.

Thailand's unwillingness and inability to improve its infrastructure in regard to the highways and the regional airports is a bit of an abomination, and has to be considered a factor on several levels.

Lastly the difficulties that foreigners face when it comes to investing in Thailand, building and buying homes, and buying land is another stumbling block, and is based entirely on fear. Also, the strength of the Thai baht is an inhibiting factor and for many of us it feels artificially high.

4 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

There are so many factors that play here certainly the drop in tourism has hurt but still has the drop in the quality of tourists and they're spending power and that is entirely the fault of the government and visa policy.

Thailand is becoming less attractive for foreign investment for a number of reasons a lot of companies are shifting from Thailand to Vietnam, or India or elsewhere. Other nations are offering more attractive tax policy and more incentives for foreign companies to invest.

Thailand's unwillingness and inability to improve its infrastructure in regard to the highways and the regional airports is a bit of an abomination, and has to be considered a factor on several levels.

Lastly the difficulties that foreigners face when it comes to investing in Thailand, building and buying homes, and buying land is another stumbling block, and is based entirely on fear. Also, the strength of the Thai baht is an inhibiting factor and for many of us it feels artificially high.

4 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

There are so many factors that play here certainly the drop in tourism has hurt but still has the drop in the quality of tourists and they're spending power and that is entirely the fault of the government and visa policy.

Thailand is becoming less attractive for foreign investment for a number of reasons a lot of companies are shifting from Thailand to Vietnam, or India or elsewhere. Other nations are offering more attractive tax policy and more incentives for foreign companies to invest.

Thailand's unwillingness and inability to improve its infrastructure in regard to the highways and the regional airports is a bit of an abomination, and has to be considered a factor on several levels.

Lastly the difficulties that foreigners face when it comes to investing in Thailand, building and buying homes, and buying land is another stumbling block, and is based entirely on fear. Also, the strength of the Thai baht is an inhibiting factor and for many of us it feels artificially high.

Fair comment- and I am sure many on here are familiar with the Thai bureaucracy nightmare if you want to buy property, open a bank account or get a long term visa

14 hours ago, Dogbarker said:

I can think of many countries who would be glowing to have a GDP growth rate like this .. yes it's not fantastic but starmer and co in the UK should take note ...

0.7% predicted for the UK I read. Slightly differently structured economy to that of Thailand. Western European countries are probably a better comparison for the UK

“The weak outlook reflects the impact of the Middle East conflict, which has driven up energy costs and weighed on tourism, exports and domestic demand.”

The Middle East impact certainly hurts, but the same could be said for the other countries listed.

Thailand has some endemic issues that it needs to resolve and which are longstanding. The Middle East conflict just makes them worse

14 hours ago, Srikcir said:

Meanwhile:

Vietnam's tourism sector in Q1 2026 achieved a record-breaking start, welcoming 6.76 million international visitors, a 12.4% year-on-year increase, driven by expanded visa policies and strong demand from China and South Korea.

Vietnam is targeting 45-50 million foreign arrivals annually by 2030, representing average growth of 16-19% a year from now.

Thailand: buy some submarines and frigates.

I know they aren't the same but hopefully Viet Nam will learn from the mistakes that thailand made pushing for such high numbers year after ysar

Infrastructure needs to keep pace with the boom. Greed kept in check and corruption...well.

17 hours ago, blaze master said:

I know they aren't the same but hopefully Viet Nam will learn from the mistakes that thailand made pushing for such high numbers year after ysar

Infrastructure needs to keep pace with the boom. Greed kept in check and corruption...well.

Vietnam has a more « culture «  oriented outlook on tourism. It is also recovering from years of war, they throughly deserve the success. The kids all want to go to UNI and all learn English . Everyone I know who has visited Vietnam have not sat on a beach for 2 weeks. For Thailand Tourists go straight from Paris, London etc direct to the islands or Pattaya. Education has never been approached in Thailand, poverty is rife, it’s all arranged for the very rich and the government to make more riches for themselves. And what do we get, chaos on the roads, young people turning into trans and bargirls , farmers dirt poor ,smoking the country out with their pollution because they can’t afford to do otherwise and are NOT educated to understand. This is 2026.

I won’t comment on letting all foreigners buy freehold in Thailand, not my country. But there should be clear intelligent directions for everyone that is accepted here , not a money under the table system. Same for retirement visas and tourist visas. Treat the people who come to thailand properly.

Thailand has huge competition now. It costs half the price for tourists to spend 2 weeks in India than Thailand. Same for Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia. Look how tourism has ruined Bali ! It’s shocking! So will Thailand end up like that ?

On 4/11/2026 at 2:00 PM, spidermike007 said:

Lastly the difficulties that foreigners face when it comes to investing in Thailand, building and buying homes, and buying land is another stumbling block, and is based entirely on fear.

Is there any comparable country in SE Asia that allows you to buy and own land "as a foreigner" ? People mention Vietnam as great but the government owns ALL the land there and the visa system is sh!tty. The main thing people seem interested in are geo-arbitraige, so "Vietnam is cheaper for a coffee, go there", and many will jump all sorts of hurdles just for that

Are there any similar SE Asian countries with any paths to residency, sure some South American countries but none in SE Asia so you cant be kicked out on a whim etc I kind of understand it, some poor rural Thai in Buttfungbadangdang can't compete with some lower-middle income immigrant from the developed world wanting to buy a few Rai.

Cambodia has their CM2H visa with a path to citizenship if you have the $ is about the only serious one I am aware of. The Philippines has some convoluted unattainable thing. Malaysia's MM2H has been neutered as it's developing at an astonishing rate. They all seem highly ethnocentric and xenophobic.

On 4/11/2026 at 1:37 PM, milesinnz said:

Growth can come from more Police and more Prisons. Should we be cheering about this achievement ? Also growth is often concentrated in a few privileged sectors - so this is good too

Indeed as Bill Bryson pointed out, the best thing in the US for GDP growth is a rich person undergoing stage 4 cancer treatment and an acrimonious divorce, apparently that's the metric many people like to use to exclaim about how great a country is, especially when they point to France having a lower GDP then some random red neck US state. Everyone being forced to buy a car and live in enforced penury from health care bills in the US is seen as a good thing because of its impact on GDP is positive but catching the train in Paris and sitting at a table in a park playing chess is a bad thing.

The first step would be to get realistic with the value of the Thai baht. When Yingluck was prime minister I was getting 33.5 baht for one Australian dollar. She got kicked out and the military muscled in and in the space of a few months World currencies dropped 30% to the Thai baht and have never recovered since.