Thailand has revised its 2026 foreign tourist arrival forecast to 32.14 million and revenue projection to 1.52 trillion baht. This adjustment follows the economic fallout from the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, impacting global travel dynamics. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz after US strikes on Iran has significantly increased oil prices, leading to higher travel costs.
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The Tourism Confidence Index for Q1 2026 shows a recovery to 81 from the previous quarter's 72, but remains below last year's 83. Despite increased visitors during Chinese New Year, external factors continue to challenge Thailand's tourism sector. Rising fuel prices, and rerouted flights due to the Middle East conflict, are leading to higher operating expenses and affecting potential tourists' budgets in Europe, the Americas, and the Middle East.
Tour operators reported a confidence index of only 72, indicating reduced group bookings from Western markets. "Thailand is caught in a pincer move," a Tourism Confidence Report stated, highlighting benefits from Chinese tourist influxes, yet offset by domestic economic challenges. Diplomatic tensions between Beijing and Tokyo have redirected Chinese tourists from Japan to Thailand, offering some relief.
While the influx of Chinese tourists offsets long-haul declines, their average spending has decreased due to other economic pressures. Larger hotels with over 100 rooms are maintaining performance, with a 73% occupancy rate in Q1, while smaller operators face challenges. Overall national occupancy stands at 62%, with Bangkok leading at 66%.
As Thailand approaches the off-season, tourism confidence is expected to decrease further. Without targeted government support, the sector risks retreating below last year's levels. The industry remains cautiously alert to the ongoing global and regional developments.
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Adapted by ASEAN Now · The Nation · 01 Apr 2026
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