OPINION

Hot politics could turn 2018 into Year of the Mad Dog

By Suthichai Yoon 
The Nation

 

Deputy Premier Somkid Jatusripitak says 2018 will be the year Thailand “takes off” – whatever that means in practical terms.

He was probably referring to the rate of economic progress – predicting GDP growth of at least 4 per cent from this year’s average of around 3.5 per cent. But he also pointed out in one of his speeches that without stable and “good politics”, hope of steadying the economy would be undermined.

 

So, is he implying that the country will only “take off” if the return to electoral, parliamentary democracy is implemented in a smooth manner?

 

It’s not easy to draw the country’s “economic tsar” into political discussion, despite talk of a new “military party” being formed with him at the head.

 

Initially he denied the rumour outright. But his latest response to lingering questions was somewhat diluted. “Don’t take it seriously. I am getting old. I would rather go home to take care of my grandkids.”

 

That, in Thai political parlance, does not amount to a denial. Has he really been approached to undertake a mission to “finish what Prayut started” when he staged the coup in 2014?

 

Nobody is ready to respond to such a direct and sensitive question. But there is no shortage of clear signals from many quarters that serious attempts are being made to pave the way for Premier Prayut Chan-o-cha to remain the country’s leader after the election through clandestine moves being made in public and behind the scenes.

 

In a way, 2018 could be described as the “take-off” year for politics: It will feature 12 months of intense activity on all sides. 

 

Prayut’s Article 44 order issued on December 22 to “reset” political parties has touched off a major controversy that will inevitably spill over into the new year.

 

The order gives newly launched political parties a one-month head start over existing ones when it comes to in registering members.

 

That clause has been slammed by veteran politicians, who are convinced that the move is aimed at aiding new political outfits while placing veteran parties at a huge disadvantage.

 

The requirement that existing party members must reaffirm their allegiance in writing within the month of April 2018 is seen as a tool to weaken the traditional parties. This is the first time that the grass-roots are being required to go through a cumbersome process to retain their party membership.

 

A frustrated and angry senior Democrat politician declared: “We have about 2.8 million party members, the highest among all parties. But if we have to follow the new ruling, we will be lucky to still have about 100,000 legitimate members left by the end of the procedure.” 

 

Doubts have been raised as to the real motive behind the rewriting of the rules. Uppermost in the mind of critics is the suspicion that this amendment and others have been drawn up for one obvious objective: To pave the way for a military-backed political party, which would then use the new provisions to draw members of existing parties to defect to its own ranks.

 

The ultimate aim of this complicated web spinning new rules for the political game? To put General Prayut back in power after the election.

 

And that’s not all. Loopholes in the new organic laws could well open the way for former MPs from existing parties to defect to new parties without having to go through the humiliating process of formally abandoning their old affiliations.

 

Things will get messier if politicians decide to challenge the legality of the new rules in the Constitutional Court. Such a move would pour oil on a fire already burning with widespread predictions that the new clauses will cause indefinite delay to the election timeline.

All this does not augur well for 2018 and hopes that the economy would rebound with the return to electoral democracy.

 

The much-heralded 2018 “take-off” for Thailand may end up being aborted, with the country’s economic engines staying grounded after a decade of drawn-out conflict.

 

If political controversies do overshadow the economic outlook, 2018 could end up being the Year of the Mad Dog. 

 

Let’s hope I am proved wrong on all counts in 12 months’ time. 

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30334928

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2017-12-28

14 minutes ago, webfact said:

The much-heralded 2018 “take-off” for Thailand may end up being aborted, with the country’s economic engines staying grounded after a decade of drawn-out conflict.

 

If political controversies do overshadow the economic outlook, 2018 could end up being the Year of the Mad Dog. 

 

Let’s hope I am proved wrong on all counts in 12 months’ time. 

While I don't wish to see Thailand go through another year of lower economic growth, ie. the Year of the Mad Dog, it is inevitable if the military continues to interfere in politics.

 

There are those who believe that the coup was justified by the violence on the street (I am not one of them), but even those must admit that the military is simply bad at governing. A quick look at the rates of economic growth, especially compared with Thailand's immediate neighbours, shows that the country is lagging behind. Further, the systemic degradation of human rights in Thailand has been on-going since the military took over. Finally, look at the number of laws that have had to be suspended and/or re-written; the appointed, rubber-stamp legislature has failed the country.

 

Once a country loses momentum for the future, as I believe Thailand has, there needs to be a serious change at the top of the government.

 

If the price of Thailand's being a democratic, functioning and happy country again is another year of low economic growth, so be it. It is worth it in the long run.

2 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

A quick look at the rates of economic growth, especially compared with Thailand's immediate neighbours, shows that the country is lagging behind.

rubbish .........   in fact it is the opposite.  Please read latest GDP figures as well as export numbers. Tourist numbers are up year on year and more projects have been started in the past year than in the previous 5 years.

......  aha .....    another keyboard warrior who wants to believe otherwise ....  lol

A troll post has been removed. 

 

Posts containing charts/content from unspecified sources have been removed as being in violation of fair use policy. 

2 hours ago, webfact said:

“Don’t take it seriously. I am getting old. I would rather go home to take care of my grandkids.”

Considering how the country is being “taken care of”, I’d be afraid grandkids...I’d be very afraid. 

Edited December 28, 20178 yr by Bluespunk

23 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

While I don't wish to see Thailand go through another year of lower economic growth, ie. the Year of the Mad Dog, it is inevitable if the military continues to interfere in politics.

 

There are those who believe that the coup was justified by the violence on the street (I am not one of them), but even those must admit that the military is simply bad at governing. A quick look at the rates of economic growth, especially compared with Thailand's immediate neighbours, shows that the country is lagging behind. Further, the systemic degradation of human rights in Thailand has been on-going since the military took over. Finally, look at the number of laws that have had to be suspended and/or re-written; the appointed, rubber-stamp legislature has failed the country.

 

Once a country loses momentum for the future, as I believe Thailand has, there needs to be a serious change at the top of the government.

 

If the price of Thailand's being a democratic, functioning and happy country again is another year of low economic growth, so be it. It is worth it in the long run.

Wrong on all counts .... !!    please stop trying to spread false information.

 

Thailand’s economy grew faster than economists estimated last quarter and is on track for a strong year in 2018, underpinned by a pick-up in exports and booming tourism.

BANGKOK, August 24, 2017 – Economic growth in Thailand is gaining momentum, with global growth and a recovery from severe drought buoying an expansion of GDP by 3.3 percent in the first quarter and 3.7 percent in the second quarter of 2017, exceeding market expectations. Economic growth for the full year 2017 is now projected around 3.5 percent, says a new World Bank report.

The statistics agency said the economy will probably expand 3.9 percent for the whole of 2017, and 3.6 percent to 4.6 percent next year, supported by export growth of 5 percent.

 

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2017/08/24/economic-growth-in-thailand-gains-momentum 

 

“Economic growth next year will accelerate from this year,” Porametee Vimolsiri, secretary general of the statistics agency, or National Economic and Social Development Board, told reporters in Bangkok. “We may see 4 percent level, supported by an improving global economy, government investment and a clearer recovery of private investment. We will see improving employment and revenue.”

 

Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha has adopted measures to boost growth, including a 1.5 trillion baht ($46 billion) infrastructure spending plan, and tax breaks for year-end shopping. Thailand -- under military rule since 2014

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-20/thailand-s-economic-growth-beats-forecasts-as-exports-rise

Edited December 28, 20178 yr by metisdead
Edited to put the supporting links in the correct places.