Russia is losing about 6,000 more troops in Ukraine each month than it can recruit, western officials have said, despite an ongoing flow of new personnel to the battlefield. Recruitment GapOfficials estimated that Russia recruits about 1,000 people a day. However, they said the pace has not been enough to offset casualties in the past two months. One western official said the difference between the number of people Russia loses to casualties and the number it can recruit is roughly 6,000 per month. They said President Vladimir Putin’s response has been to broaden the pressure on Ukraine rather than rely solely on personnel replacement. Western officials pointed to an increase in strikes against civilian infrastructure and civilians. Missile Campaign And Energy TargetsThe assessment was that Russia is trying to wear down Ukrainian morale by targeting energy infrastructure during the winter. Officials said Moscow has fired more than 360 missiles since early July and has sought to take advantage of what they described as Kyiv’s limited defences against ballistic missiles. Western officials said the Kremlin has few options to address the scale of battlefield losses through recruitment alone. They added that further mobilisation would carry major political and economic risks. They cited the last such drive in autumn 2022, when about a million Russians left the country, often including people with valuable skills, with fewer than half returning afterwards. Officials also said it was unclear whether the Russian military could absorb several hundred thousand additional recruits because of shortages of equipment and officers. Ukraine Appeals For More HelpUkraine has repeatedly targeted facilities linked to Russian oil, which officials say has contributed to fuel shortages in Russia. Kyiv has also continued to urge allies to provide more support, including longer-range offensive missiles and additional air and missile defence systems. Andy Burnham, visiting Kyiv on his first overseas trip as prime minister, told Volodymyr Zelenskyy that the UK will share previously classified information about British-manufactured components used in long-range cruise missiles. Burnham also urged the international community to do more to protect Ukraine from Russian attacks, including by supplying more US-made Patriot interceptor missiles. He is expected to press the case at the UN general assembly in New York next month. Nato Risks And Possible RetaliationIn response, Russia has issued repeated threats of retaliation, including claims about attacks on UK military targets both inside and outside Ukraine. Western officials said the danger remains significant, but added that their view is that Putin is aiming to avoid a direct confrontation with Nato. They described Russia’s hostile rhetoric as consistent with established military practice, saying it is used to heighten fears among opponents and influence decision-making. Officials said Russia still has the capability to strike the UK through cyberattacks or through proxies against civilian targets, such as factories or warehouses. They pointed to last year’s conviction of six men linked to an attack ordered by Russia on a warehouse in east London housing aid for Ukraine. Western officials said Putin’s overall aim is to continue a war of attrition, counting on allied support for Ukraine to weaken over time. They said public concern about Russian threats could contribute to that outcome. One official said such threats are intended to help create a “fractured and more vulnerable Europe”. Another added that this approach is not new, pointing to Russia’s repeated references to the possible use of nuclear weapons in recent years to deter support for Ukraine. Join the discussion? 29 August 2026
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