Prayut: shaken, defensive and easily riled

[Odysseus123]

2 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

And breathe ?

carefully,breathe in...one,two..breathe out...

[Eligius]

14 minutes ago, Mad mick said:

Bank account almost full, once yellow submarine arrive from china all aboard off abroad new life UK the new Brazil of Europe Rich and on the run head straight to UK pay upon entry all good new id, passport, 10 year visa book audience with King Thaksin Shinawatra have a chat quiet chardonnay or 2 thanking him for leading the way how to rob Thai poor to give to rich only one thing as PM he got wrong thais dont love him like love Shinawatra family for robbing them , 

I understand what you are saying and I have some sympathy with some of your points; but I don't think the poorer Thais love Thaksin (and they do love him and Yingluck - especially now - more so than before, after the dreadful dinosaur period) because 'he was robbing them'.

 

The rural and poor Thais tend to love him because for the first time in their lives they were actually being listened to and given a voice. OK, Thaksin was largely in it for himself (as are all past Thai politicians, so far as I can see) - but the fact remains that the lives of the poor did noticeably improve under Thaksin's rule. For the first time, the poorer Thais felt that a Prime Minister was actually aware of their existence and was concretely doing something to aid them. This was new and revolutionary for the poorer Thais - and I believe it has changed the political landscape forever in Thailand. I don't think the rural and poor Thais will, long term, be content to be the forgotten and abused serfs of old.

 

And no amount of fancy mediaeval costumes will change their opposition to dinosaurs ruling over them or will quench their justified thirst for genuine democratic representation. In this - I am wholly with them!

 

Edited May 30, 2018 by Eligius

[KiwiKiwi]

1 hour ago, Odysseus123 said:

The Thai certainly march to the beat of a different drum then us Westerners do..for certs..but then so does the rest of Asia.

 

Please watch this and I think that it isn't really off topic altho' perhaps my intention is a little disguised.

 

Watched and mystified. Any elucidation available? I'm really not sure what the message is, though I'm sure there is one. To equate the Thai with the Japanese seems like a bit of a stretch. Different orders of magnitude entirely imho.

[lovelomsak]

So when Thanathorn said he was prepared to “rip up” the constitution and revoke Article 279, which has empowered the premier to overrule other laws, Prayut took it as a direct threat to his administration, legacy and authority.

  Thanathorn should probably liquidate ever thing he has and get out of the country. He will be completely destroyed if he stays. He will lose everything he has. He is heavily out gunned.

[Odysseus123]

3 minutes ago, KiwiKiwi said:

Watched and mystified. Any elucidation available? I'm really not sure what the message is, though I'm sure there is one. To equate the Thai with the Japanese seems like a bit of a stretch. Different orders of magnitude entirely imho.

The ultimate respect goes to royalty.

[Eligius]

7 minutes ago, KiwiKiwi said:

Watched and mystified. Any elucidation available? I'm really not sure what the message is, though I'm sure there is one. To equate the Thai with the Japanese seems like a bit of a stretch. Different orders of magnitude entirely imho.

I think a bit of reverse-engineering is called for: when I watched that video clip and heard someone call out from the audience, it sounded (to me) like 'GOODBYE'. I know it wasn't. But perhaps that is what is being referenced here: someone from the crowd - and then the whole crowd itself - to yell: 'GOODBYE'! Of course I am referring to wishing our great leader, Prayut, a happy farewell and retirement (ahem) ...!

 

 

Edited May 30, 2018 by Eligius

[Samui Bodoh]

There is some interesting speculation here, but we all are lacking in facts. However, that never stopped me before, so...

 

Some have speculated that Prayut might be moved up to the Privy Council or out on his ass. Respectfully, neither of those things is going to happen, in my humble opinion.

 

Prayut, for all his many faults, is the public face of the regime and there is no one even remotely close to being able to take over; the Evil Hobbit is the Evil Hobbit, and Evil Hobbits simply do not have the public persona to be the leader. And I make that comment without even mentioning the watches; it is not going to happen. Same with Anupong (spelling?); if he were capable of being a/the public persona, he likely would be one already as a means of both spreading the public face around and for avoiding the perception that it is a one man show. Finally, the potential appointment to the PC is not the choice of Prayut; if I were to do the choosing, I would select another person as a counter-balance to his public popularity (yes, we all hate to admit it, but there are Thais who like him. It is incomprehensible to me, but nonetheless...).

 

So, in my view, we are going to see him around for some time. Or at least until just after the elections...

 

Another thought for consideration; don't you think that the (many) PTBs might be getting a bit nervous with all the power accumulated in Prayut's hands? And, if he manages to "win" an election and gain some legitimacy, that power will increase exponentially? Prayut has served the PTB well to date; note the increase of roughly 33% in the finances of Thailand's "1 Percent" class. My reading of Thai history is that there is a desire to have power concentrated in the 'Elite', yet at the same time spread around the 'Elite'. Perhaps a few people are starting to get a wee bit nervous and doing a little sabotage on the side...?

 

One final thought. The PTB in Thailand like the Chinese for making money, but send their children to Western countries for education and have their holidays in Western countries (NYC and London are two favourite destinations). I strongly suspect that many of the PTBs are getting a bit worried about Prayut as he seems to have close ties to China; if the PTBs can buy him off, why couldn't the Chinese? Finally, I have always thought that the 'Elite' in Thailand care a great deal about what Western countries think; the history of Thailand since the 1960s has been closely linked to the West. Although they might be publicly saying "we are Asian and want links to other Asian countries and people", I suspect that they care deeply about how they are seen by Western countries. And, currently they are not seen well.

 

Sooooo, those are some thoughts to ponder...

 

Edited May 30, 2018 by Samui Bodoh
Lack of coffee

[KiwiKiwi]

1 minute ago, lovelomsak said:

So when Thanathorn said he was prepared to “rip up” the constitution and revoke Article 279, which has empowered the premier to overrule other laws, Prayut took it as a direct threat to his administration, legacy and authority.

  Thanathorn should probably liquidate ever thing he has and get out of the country. He will be completely destroyed if he stays. He will lose everything he has. He is heavily out gunned.

 

hhhm. Maybe.

 

I suspect the big guns don't yet consider him a threat - partly through arrogance and partly through the legendary Thai stupidity. He's a threat alright, but not because of what he is but because of what I suspect is his representing what I perceive as a seething and simmering resentment of Prayuth, an awakening of sorts. Late yes, but that's Thailand, a day late and a dollar short on most things useful.

 

So the powers that be will wait and bluster until it's too late for anything but violence to work, even if that violence is only searching around for  convenient peg to hand yet another election delay on. There are at least 2 upcoming bereavements that would fill the bill, and both of them have large bodies of water named after them.

[Eligius]

12 minutes ago, Odysseus123 said:

The ultimate respect goes to royalty.

What can I say....?!

[KiwiKiwi]

11 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

There is some interesting speculation here, but we all are lacking in facts. However, that never stopped me before, so...

 

Some have speculated that Prayut might be moved up to the Privy Council or out on his ass. Respectfully, neither of those things is going to happen, in my humble opinion.

 

Prayut, for all his many faults, is the public face of the regime and there is no one even remotely close to being able to take over; the Evil Hobbit is the Evil Hobbit, and Evil Hobbits simply do not have the public persona to be the leader. And I make that comment without even mentioning the watches; it is not going to happen. Same with Anupong (spelling?); if he were capable of being a/the public persona, he likely would be one already as a means of both spreading the public face around and for avoiding the perception that it is a one man show. Finally, the potential appointment to the PC is not the choice of Prayut; if I were to do the choosing, I would select another person as a counter-balance to his public popularity (yes, we all hate to admit it, but there are Thais who like him. It is incomprehensible to me, but nonetheless...).

 

So, in my view, we are going to see him around for some time. Or at least until just after the elections at least.

 

Another thought for consideration; don't you think that the (many) PTBs might be getting a bit nervous with all the power accumulated in Prayut's hands? And, if he manages to "win" an election and gain some legitimacy, that power will increase exponentially? Prayut has served the PTB well to date; note the increase of roughly 33% in the finances of Thailand's "1 Percent" class. My reading of Thai history is that there is a desire to have power concentrated in the 'Elite', yet at the same time spread around the 'Elite'. Perhaps a few people are starting to get a wee bit nervous and doing a little sabotage on the side...?

 

One final thought. The PTB in Thailand like the Chinese for making money, but send their children to Western countries for education and have their holidays in Western countries (NYC and London are two favourite destinations). I strongly suspect that many of the PTBs are getting a bit worried about Prayut as he seems to have close ties to China; if the PTBs can buy him off, why couldn't the Chinese? Finally, I have always thought that the 'Elite' in Thailand care a great deal about what Western countries think; the history of Thailand since the 1960s has been closely linked to the West, and although they might be publicly saying "we are Asian and want links to other Asian countries and people", I suspect that they care deeply about how they are seen by Western countries. And, currently they are not seen well.

 

Sooooo, those are some thoughts to ponder...

 

I think you're wrong, though I'll cheerfully admit that might well be wishful thinking.

 

I think they might well unload Prayuth, even though, as you suggest, there is a paucity of any kind of talent among those who might replace him. A large pool of talent-less and otherwise unemployable bums gathered around the bum-in-chief and his diminuitive catamite. No, what I think might happen is an apparent change of mindset, and a capitulation to holding an election this year as demanded by the students. After which his nastiness will sink without a trace. A veiled capitulation on instructions from the same source as flowed the dire order in respect of his unholiness the Issara.

 

I sense that this may not be long in the coming, but that too, might well be wishful thinking of course, I'm only human and my abilities/insights don't really extend to politics.

[Happyman58]

4 hours ago, faraday said:

Get Cathy Newman to interview him.

lol  Be a very short interview

[KiwiKiwi]

7 minutes ago, Eligius said:

What can I say....?!

 

Nowt might be the best option, though it is probably as obvious to you as it is to me that the 2 instances are hardly comparable.

[Odysseus123]

28 minutes ago, Eligius said:

What can I say....?!

Exactly.

Seriously "banzai" in those circumstances has been "restrained" for nigh on 72 years.

 

So..something is happening here..and..we don't know what it is but the monk/monks might give us a clue.

 

Having said that I am beginning to be really influenced by Prof.Ian Morris' "Why The West Rules-For Now' and the book's companion volume.

Edited May 30, 2018 by Odysseus123

[Eligius]

2 minutes ago, Odysseus123 said:

Exactly.

Seriously "banzai" in those circumstances has been "restrained" for nigh on 72 years.

 

So..something is happening here..and..we don't know what it is but the monk/monks might give us a clue.

 

Having said that I am beginning to be really influenced by Prof.Ian Morris' "Why The West Rules-For Now' and the book's companion volume.

I see what you mean. I must check out that book you mention. Sounds very interesting.

[ChidlomDweller]

Censored myself!

Edited May 30, 2018 by ChidlomDweller

[Eligius]

6 minutes ago, ChidlomDweller said:

Censored myself!

And by doing so - censoring yourself - you are being very eloquent about life in 21st-century Thailand!

[rosst]

Excellent article, go Thanatorn. 

Initially I thought it was the wrong move but I think it is bold enough that they may not be able to nobble him. 

This could be a winning move, it could form a rallying point for the anti Prayut voters who want their constitution back again and remove the threat of the army wielding political power after the election. 

Wishful thinking, come on Thailand, throw off the yoke of serfdom. 

[Eligius]

2 minutes ago, rosst said:

Excellent article, go Thanatorn. 

Initially I thought it was the wrong move but I think it is bold enough that they may not be able to nobble him. 

This could be a winning move, it could form a rallying point for the anti Prayut voters who want their constitution back again and remove the threat of the army wielding political power after the election. 

Wishful thinking, come on Thailand, throw off the yoke of serfdom. 

I am with you. I think Thanathorn is a very intelligent individual and (it appears) endowed with a social and moral conscience too (unusual amongst the 'elites' of Thailand, to say the least). He has astutely recognised that there can be no progress for Thailand at all until that dreadful 'Constitution' is shredded. It has no legitimacy whatsoever and was foisted upon the Thai people without any free and open debate being allowed (10 years in prison if you pointed out any of its disgraceful provisions). Also, that 'Constitution' was altered after the referendum 'vote' (but I can say no more ...).

 

 

[lovelomsak]

59 minutes ago, KiwiKiwi said:

 

hhhm. Maybe.

 

I suspect the big guns don't yet consider him a threat - partly through arrogance and partly through the legendary Thai stupidity. He's a threat alright, but not because of what he is but because of what I suspect is his representing what I perceive as a seething and simmering resentment of Prayuth, an awakening of sorts. Late yes, but that's Thailand, a day late and a dollar short on most things useful.

 

So the powers that be will wait and bluster until it's too late for anything but violence to work, even if that violence is only searching around for  convenient peg to hand yet another election delay on. There are at least 2 upcoming bereavements that would fill the bill, and both of them have large bodies of water named after them.

I am quite sure this will happen. I have seen it before.

 I knew a guy in Wang thong near Pitsanulok that was a politician from Bangkok. He  had picture hanging on his wall at home of Ronald Reagan  meeting and shaking his hand at the airport in the USA. This guy was quite successful in Bangkok and area well his party was in power. He  had a chain of convenience stores and was doing well. When the army decided to go after him he lost it all in 3 months. Moved to Wang Thong with one of his wife's,3 daughters and grandson. His family tried to make a go of it . But all his daughters were banned from the markets in Pitsanulok  and then banned from the markets in Wang Thong.He could not even keep up with payments on a small 2 bedroom home. Moved to  Isaan  and ended up making and selling white whiskey .

   Thanatorn is a thorn and he will be removed for sure.To just suggest what he did is to write his political end. Threat or not he is a problem. They will remove the problem.

[Odysseus123]

9 minutes ago, lovelomsak said:

I am quite sure this will happen. I have seen it before.

 I knew a guy in Wang thong near Pitsanulok that was a politician from Bangkok. He  had picture hanging on his wall at home of Ronald Reagan  meeting and shaking his hand at the airport in the USA. This guy was quite successful in Bangkok and area well his party was in power. He  had a chain of convenience stores and was doing well. When the army decided to go after him he lost it all in 3 months. Moved to Wang Thong with one of his wife's,3 daughters and grandson. His family tried to make a go of it . But all his daughters were banned from the markets in Pitsanulok  and then banned from the markets in Wang Thong.He could not even keep up with payments on a small 2 bedroom home. Moved to  Isaan  and ended up making and selling white whiskey .

   Thanatorn is a thorn and he will be removed for sure.To just suggest what he did is to write his political end. Threat or not he is a problem. They will remove the problem.

Possibly...

 

But what happens if Thanatorn has very powerful backers?

 

Remember that in the East power is really exercised by those behind the veiled curtain rather than those in the front.

 

Viziers come and go.

Edited May 30, 2018 by Odysseus123

[Eligius]

4 minutes ago, lovelomsak said:

I am quite sure this will happen. I have seen it before.

 I knew a guy in Wang thong near Pitsanulok that was a politician from Bangkok. He  had picture hanging on his wall at home of Ronald Reagan  meeting and shaking his hand at the airport in the USA. This guy was quite successful in Bangkok and area well his party was in power. He  had a chain of convenience stores and was doing well. When the army decided to go after him he lost it all in 3 months. Moved to Wang Thong with one of his wife's,3 daughters and grandson. His family tried to make a go of it . But all his daughters were banned from the markets in Pitsanulok  and then banned from the markets in Wang Thong.He could not even keep up with payments on a small 2 bedroom home. Moved to  Isaan  and ended up making and selling white whiskey .

   Thanatorn is a thorn and he will be removed for sure.To just suggest what he did is to write his political end. Threat or not he is a problem. They will remove the problem.

Very informative post. I like your phrase (it should be used widely): 'Thana-thorn is a thorn' in the side of the repressive dinosaurs!

I definitely agree with you: if Thanathorn is sincere and genuine (and so far he appears to be), then he will be stopped by Prayut and his junta (if they continue to hold power - which they will do everything possible to ensure).

 

Thanathorn seems to me to represent a whole new face of modern Thailand - a face of fairness, justice, democracy and reason. Whether that face is backed up by substance or is just a mask - remains to be seen. But I must confess that increasingly I am being impressed by Thanathorn's (apparent) principled bravery.

[KiwiKiwi]

10 minutes ago, lovelomsak said:

I am quite sure this will happen. I have seen it before.

 I knew a guy in Wang thong near Pitsanulok that was a politician from Bangkok. He  had picture hanging on his wall at home of Ronald Reagan  meeting and shaking his hand at the airport in the USA. This guy was quite successful in Bangkok and area well his party was in power. He  had a chain of convenience stores and was doing well. When the army decided to go after him he lost it all in 3 months. Moved to Wang Thong with one of his wife's,3 daughters and grandson. His family tried to make a go of it . But all his daughters were banned from the markets in Pitsanulok  and then banned from the markets in Wang Thong.He could not even keep up with payments on a small 2 bedroom home. Moved to  Isaan  and ended up making and selling white whiskey .

   Thanatorn is a thorn and he will be removed for sure.To just suggest what he did is to write his political end. Threat or not he is a problem. They will remove the problem.

I sincerely hope you are wrong, not about the example you quote, but about the new guy being stopped.

 

Because that would only leave 1 option, and the Thais are unlikely to have the cojones for that.

[Mr E]

Coming soon to a Political Theatre near you:

 

Amart 2 - The Awakening

[Artisi]

25 minutes ago, Eligius said:

I am with you. I think Thanathorn is a very intelligent individual and (it appears) endowed with a social and moral conscience too (unusual amongst the 'elites' of Thailand, to say the least). He has astutely recognised that there can be no progress for Thailand at all until that dreadful 'Constitution' is shredded. It has no legitimacy whatsoever and was foisted upon the Thai people without any free and open debate being allowed (10 years in prison if you pointed out any of its disgraceful provisions). Also, that 'Constitution' was altered after the referendum 'vote' (but I can say no more ...).

 

 

Say no more, unless you feel like a bit of re-education and straightening out ?

[Eligius]

5 minutes ago, KiwiKiwi said:

I sincerely hope you are wrong, not about the example you quote, but about the new guy being stopped.

 

Because that would only leave 1 option, and the Thais are unlikely to have the cojones for that.

Spot on! I think now that Thanathorn represents the best hope for Thailand in the coming years. None of the other political leaders here in Thailand come even up to his shoulders in terms of (his seemingly) genuine support for democracy and justice. I think how different Thailand would look on the world stage if it was led by a Thanathorn. Thailand would have a leader they could be proud of - a guy with a brain in his head, and a conscience in his heart (or so it seems). 

 

I hope, KiwiKiwi, that whatever or whoever decides these things will allow Thanathorn to go forward and usher Thailand into a new and much juster age ...

[saminoz]

1 hour ago, lovelomsak said:

So when Thanathorn said he was prepared to “rip up” the constitution and revoke Article 279, which has empowered the premier to overrule other laws, Prayut took it as a direct threat to his administration, legacy and authority.

  Thanathorn should probably liquidate ever thing he has and get out of the country. He will be completely destroyed if he stays. He will lose everything he has. He is heavily out gunned.

"He is heavily out gunned.".

Not intellectually, apparently.

[Eligius]

11 minutes ago, saminoz said:

"He [Thanathorn] is heavily out gunned.".

Not intellectually, apparently.

Even an ant has more intellectual firing power than the present Thai leadership!

They actually make Yingluck look highly intelligent. Now that is one stunning achievement!

 

By the way, doesn't Yingluck (for all her faults) appear so very much more human and sympatico - after four years of authoritarian, oppressive dinosaur rule?

 

 

Edited May 30, 2018 by Eligius

[ChidlomDweller]

22 minutes ago, lovelomsak said:

I am quite sure this will happen. I have seen it before.

 I knew a guy in Wang thong near Pitsanulok that was a politician from Bangkok. He  had picture hanging on his wall at home of Ronald Reagan  meeting and shaking his hand at the airport in the USA. This guy was quite successful in Bangkok and area well his party was in power. He  had a chain of convenience stores and was doing well. When the army decided to go after him he lost it all in 3 months. Moved to Wang Thong with one of his wife's,3 daughters and grandson. His family tried to make a go of it . But all his daughters were banned from the markets in Pitsanulok  and then banned from the markets in Wang Thong.He could not even keep up with payments on a small 2 bedroom home. Moved to  Isaan  and ended up making and selling white whiskey .

   Thanatorn is a thorn and he will be removed for sure.To just suggest what he did is to write his political end. Threat or not he is a problem. They will remove the problem.

Remember Songkran Grachangnetara, who used to write opinion columns for the  BP during the Orwellian-named PDRC protests?   He always nailed it, being fair-minded, cosmopolitan and intelligent.  Then one day his columns stopped.  His main line is as an entrepreneur.  I have no doubt they told him what a nice little business he has and what a shame it would be if something happened to it.

[Artisi]

Thanathorn would be very wise and not venture too close to any high rise balcony railings, maybe he is unaware how dangerous they can be. 

[Eric Loh]

Let’s not get too far ahead of reality as Thanathorn and his party will not win the election neither will he be the PM. His party is still new and he is lesser known outside Bangkok. He has to earn the barami with the population in the south and north. He and his party will have to work diligently and maintain their ideology and show the electorate that they have the vision and intellectualism to move Thailand forward to be a government to be considered.

 

IMHO at in the coming election, his party will be mid-size and capable to win 12-15 seats in Bangkok, central and part of the south. PTP will win their incumbent seats at around 220 seats. Together with FFP and CTP, they should gain the majority.

 

It will be interesting if the coalition will have Thammasat law lecturer Khun Piyabutr as Justice Minister whose portfolio will be law reform and Khun Thanathorn as Defense Minister in charge of the military and police.