CIMB Research further trims Thai growth forecast to 1.7 per cent

By THE NATION

 

Amonthep Chawla

 

CIMB Research Office has again lowered its economic growth projection this year from 2.3 per cent to 1.7 per cent, mainly due to impact from the Covid-19 outbreak on tourism and manufacturing, said Amonthep Chawla, head of the research office.

 

 

“Thailand’s economy will contract in the first half of 2020, and will recover rapidly in V shape in the second half” he said. “The government and private sector needed to find different economic stimulus to improve the situation, unless the economy this year would recover in U shape, or grow only 0.7 per cent”.

 

The research office said that Thailand’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is at risk of contracting for over two consecutive quarters, since the Covid-19 situation would decrease tourist arrivals by over 50 per cent in the first half.

 

Meanwhile, the export sector is likely to shrink continually, due to slowdown in the Chinese economy. In addition, Thai producers cannot export the usual amounts of products or materials to China, since its business sector has not fully opened. “This caused Thai entrepreneurs to reduce the production capacity or suspend their business temporarily” Amonthep added.

 

The contraction in production, export, and tourism tends to decrease employment in these sectors. Meanwhile, drought has lowered agriculture revenue, dampening the purchasing power of households, and affected domestic consumption.

 

Moreover, delay to the fiscal 2020 budget has prevented the government from spending in mega projects, and provide relief measures low-income earners. “The consumption of government and private sector will contract, at least in the first quarter,” he said.

The office predicted that the government would cut policy rate again from 1.00 per cent to 0.75 per cent.

 

“The reduction would occur within three months to help boost financial liquidity and lower the financial burden of entrepreneurs” he said.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30382582

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-02-22

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Someone is actually predicting a recession in Thailand this year.  First time I've ever seen this in a public news article.

 

He'll be arrested, of course.

59 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

“The government and private sector needed to find different economic stimulus to improve the situation, unless the economy this year would recover in U shape, or grow only 0.7 per cent”.

They're on to it..."Chim Shop Choi!"

1 hour ago, TheAppletons said:

Someone is actually predicting a recession in Thailand this year.  First time I've ever seen this in a public news article.

 

He'll be arrested, of course.

It feels like there is already a recession in some aspects of Thailand commerce.

 

Burn baby burn... cdn dollar already up... still a way to go though

All Coronas fault.

Nothing to do with the drug smugglers, the horologist and the treasonous and incompetent crooks that are running the country.

Wonder if they have Vegas odds for Thai economy.  I’d take a bet against it.

That,s it then...the baht will strengthen

2 hours ago, LazySlipper said:

Burn baby burn... cdn dollar already up... still a way to go though

A way to go? Try about 5 more years Corona virus takes a lot of the blame and baht will bounce when it gets contained 

Oz dollar looking very grim indeed 

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-21/australian-dollar-slumps-to-11-year-low-on-jobs-data/11987094?pfmredir=sm

 

V-curve my backside...

Surprise that Goldman Sachs don't have a fund or derivative that shorts a SET tracker. Now would be a good time to buy. 

https://www.thebalance.com/how-to-bet-on-a-country-s-economic-decline-1978846

21 hours ago, madmen said:

A way to go? Try about 5 more years Corona virus takes a lot of the blame and baht will bounce when it gets contained 

Oz dollar looking very grim indeed 

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-21/australian-dollar-slumps-to-11-year-low-on-jobs-data/11987094?pfmredir=sm

 

Kiwis been doing the worst and 5 years sounds about right.

 

Thats what it took to hit rock bottom.

On 2/22/2020 at 1:24 PM, LazySlipper said:

Burn baby burn... cdn dollar already up... still a way to go though

Canada doing a great job of sabotaging it's own currency value without any help from anyone except Trudeau.. 

21 hours ago, madmen said:

A way to go? Try about 5 more years Corona virus takes a lot of the blame and baht will bounce when it gets contained 

Oz dollar looking very grim indeed 

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-21/australian-dollar-slumps-to-11-year-low-on-jobs-data/11987094?pfmredir=sm

 

the whole world is going to go into the toilet over this one...