The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[Mid]

"The slower recovery may stem from the fact that products available in the market do not meet customers' needs."

how right he is .........................

democracy is in aisle D.

[chinthee]

"The slower recovery may stem from the fact that products available in the market do not meet customers' needs."

how right he is .........................

democracy is in aisle D.

Well, real democracy is not in stock right now. Shipments aren't expected for a few years at best. There will be a democracy replica available on aisle A shortly.

Meanwhile, what in the world does that mean that products in the marketplace don't meet consumers' needs?? Nothing will put a brake on GDP growth quicker than nobody buying more fortuners and Dmax's.

[Mid]

ECONOMY / RECOVERY PROSPECTS IMPROVE

PM: Thailand will drive region

BOONSONG KOSITCHOTETHANA

Jaan Albrecht, CEO of the Star Alliance, presents a model plane to Gen Surayud at the opening of "Asia Forum 2007: The Future of Aviation" yesterday. — TAWATCHAI KEMGUMNERD

Thailand will reassert its role as an engine of regional economic growth following elections later this year, Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont said yesterday. ''Our future and progress will be derived from a political, economic and social base that is stronger, more equal and more sustainable,'' Gen Surayud told an international aviation gathering in Bangkok.

He assured 300 aviation executives at the Asia Forum 2007: The Future of Aviation, that the kingdom was on its way to returning to political stability.

great , everybody stand down , crisis over .....................

[chinthee]

ECONOMY / RECOVERY PROSPECTS IMPROVE

PM: Thailand will drive region

BOONSONG KOSITCHOTETHANA

Jaan Albrecht, CEO of the Star Alliance, presents a model plane to Gen Surayud at the opening of "Asia Forum 2007: The Future of Aviation" yesterday. — TAWATCHAI KEMGUMNERD

Thailand will reassert its role as an engine of regional economic growth following elections later this year, Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont said yesterday. ''Our future and progress will be derived from a political, economic and social base that is stronger, more equal and more sustainable,'' Gen Surayud told an international aviation gathering in Bangkok.

He assured 300 aviation executives at the Asia Forum 2007: The Future of Aviation, that the kingdom was on its way to returning to political stability.

great , everybody stand down , crisis over .....................

I read that yesterday, and thought, Thailand is one of the engines of growth in Asia?? Guess I missed something.

[soundman]

I read that yesterday, and thought, Thailand is one of the engines of growth in Asia?? Guess I missed something.

Food for the masses. That's the type of talk the sheep like to hear. Who cares whether there is a single iota of truth behind it.

Soundman.

[Jai Dee]

BOT reports improvement in Thailand's economy

The Bank of Thailand reports that Thailand's economic situation in May showed signs of positive growth.

The Senior Director of Domestic Economy to the Bank of Thailand, Mrs. Amara Sripayak (อมรา ศรีพยัคฆ์), reported on Thailand's economic and fiscal situation for May. Mrs. Amara said that the Thai economy showed signs of improvement, due to an increase from the nation's industrial index by 6.3 percent. Electronics and leather goods are among the leading industrial sectors.

Meanwhile the Ministry of Commerce has a total of 274.3 billion baht in trade reserves, an increase of 10.6 percent. Exports are also growing continuously, and have increased by 19.9 percent to stand at 12.839 billion US dollars. Goods with the highest export volume and value include rice, Cassava, and poultry. The Senior Director of Domestic Economy to the Bank of Thailand attributed these improvements to the government's economic stimulation policies.

The average exchange value of the Thai currency to the US dollar stands at 34.62 baht, a slight appreciation from April.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 29 June 2007

[highdiver]

Yup.. sounds like a crisis if I ever saw one!!

[number6]

Impressive list, but as we know there are lies, damned lies and statistics ... whatever you want to make of them. Still, if your data collection is correct, none bodes well. My perspective mostly comes from a social aspect.

I had a colleague of mine once tell me in Thailand that my perceptions were part of my own "pathology" if I dared to make these kinds of observations. The reason for his commitment to Thailand was (and is) his addiction to Thai boys. Denial, yes, and who's pathological?

Some folks have so much vested interest in their decisions about moving to Thailand or their lifestyle that they're willing to eat sh*t to stay. Go ahead and check in every three months. Go ahead and let the brother and the sister and the parents demand money. Go ahead and apologize for the truly frightening driving habits. Go ahead and try to protect your money. Go ahead and avoid drunk policemen with sidearms drinking in public ... hey man, that's normal.

This babbling has a point: there are many, many foreigners in Thailand who are in a state of denial, which indeed is a pathological state that refuses to accept information that is contrary to their dearly held grip on what they are doing.

Hence those who will not listen to what many say are the facts. No matter your sources, they will deny that the figures are accurate. It just don't fit in, man.

Sorry, just being pathological...

mmmmm - well if this is a state of denial let it continue please please - here 6 years + lovely house, lovely wife lovely child

fantastic lifestyle - mmmmmmmmm - must be dreaming -

and yes ive put a lot here probably about $ 600k on houses cars fun games etc but them as ive always said dont put more

than about 30% of what you have here or anywhere thats not your country

so if and when it all goes pear hsaped - sad but what a fantastic 6 years

still have to pinch myself that im not dreaming but then i dont go to bars (i drink a lot) dont do boys dont go to Pattaya dont live

with low life forang here (and theirs tons of that) - live with thais eat at thia places stay where thais stay - dont support my

thai wifes family etc

I of course mean I mix with thais with money or who prove they are trustworthy and dont judge Thais by hangers on

etc who frequent bars Pattaya and other such places

[jomama]

Slowly but surely other countries and international firms will move their business interests out due to uncertainty. And many businesses must be asking themselved on a daily basis why they are in this crazy place with no logic and or sound business rules. They have been waiting for a nudge and nw they have it.

Yup, you may be right.

Not impacting me, but the storm clouds are such that people with vested interests are holding their breath right now. The storm might pass in the short term.

Maybe, to quote Dylan, the "hard rain" is yet not going to fall. But it will.

[bingobongo]

let me guess highdiver, Bloomberg is a rag magazine that has no credibility whereas you are all knowing? i'll stick to Bloomberg as opposed to you rhetoric......make sure you wear a helmet when you eventually "dive" into the reality pool......are you ready?

June 25 - Bloomberg (Shamim Adam): "Asset bubbles fueled by flows of cash into Asia may signal the risk of a financial crisis, policy makers in the region say. Capital flows have inflated real estate and stock prices, according to officials including Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Thai Finance Minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn. They spoke at the World Economic Forum on East Asia conference in Singapore, 10 years after Asia's financial crisis. 'While East Asia is in a stronger position today compared to 1997, mishaps can still happen,' Singapore's Lee said... 'Recent signs of market exuberance have created fresh concerns.'"

Edited June 30, 2007 by bingobongo

[Jai Dee]

SET down 0.11% yesterday

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index yesterday (Jun 29) lost 0.89 points, or down by 0.11 percent, to close at 776.79. The market value was approximately 16,971,350,000 baht, with about 3,244,392,000 shares being traded.

The SET 100 Index also closed lower at 1,195.47 points, decreasing by 2.49 while the SET 50 Index ended at 550.01 points, down by 1.14. The mai Index however increased 0.86 points to close at 229.29.

The top five most active values were as follows:

BANPU closed at 268.00 baht, up by 12.00,

PTT remained at 270.00 baht,

SCB closed at 73.00 baht, down by 0.50,

PTTEP closed at 108.00 baht, down by 1.00 and

PTTEP closed at 65.00 baht, up by 0.50.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 30 June 2007

[highdiver]

let me guess highdiver, Bloomberg is a rag magazine that has no credibility whereas you are all knowing? i'll stick to Bloomberg as opposed to you rhetoric......make sure you wear a helmet when you eventually "dive" into the reality pool......are you ready?

June 25 - Bloomberg (Shamim Adam): "Asset bubbles fueled by flows of cash into Asia may signal the risk of a financial crisis, policy makers in the region say. Capital flows have inflated real estate and stock prices, according to officials including Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Thai Finance Minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn. They spoke at the World Economic Forum on East Asia conference in Singapore, 10 years after Asia's financial crisis. 'While East Asia is in a stronger position today compared to 1997, mishaps can still happen,' Singapore's Lee said... 'Recent signs of market exuberance have created fresh concerns.'"

bingo... A couple of knights short of a Crusade.

bloomberg is a great magazine. I can only recomend you read the articles and not just the head lines.

i understand you lost a lot of profits...and that the condo market is doing remarkably well after you cashed out.

Not playing with a full deck? hel_l, you are not even in the game!

i undesrstand your anger and frustration deriving from the contridiction of your virtual reality that thailand is crashing and the real reality of the thai economy getting better every day.

your situation is a proof God has a sense of humor.

dont worry when the market does go down in 9 years you will be able to join the again...

enough of that.....

back to the real reality

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2nd-quarter recovery

Improved domestic demand, increased exports key factors

The economy showed signs of recovery in the second quarter, thanks to increased domestic demand and higher-than-expected export growth.

Amara Sriphayak, senior director for private consumption and investment at the Bank of Thailand (BOT), said the second quarter improved from the first because of government stimuli, low interest rates and inflation and improved business confidence.

The Business Confidence Index's investment component registered 50.7 points last month, passing the 50-point mark for the first time this year. This indicates investor confidence is improving and that they are ready to spend again, she said.

"The economy will probably bottom out, but I don't dare conclude that," she said.

The bank's Monetary Policy Committee meeting next month will evaluate the situation and may revise economic forecasts.

Amara said improved domestic demand was in line with BOT projections made in April but that export growth was higher than expected, due to better performance in the economies of trading partners.

"We predicted consumption and investment would accelerate in the second quarter, leading to a rise in imported goods, and as a result the economy won't grow a lot," she said.

Without negative factors, the economy will continue to grow, spurred by government spending, decreasing interest rates and an improved political situation.

The Private Consumption Index (PCI) in April and May declined 0.4 per cent year on year, compared with a 0.5-per-cent contraction in the first quarter. The Private Investment Index (PII) in April and May was down 2.7 per cent year on year, compared with a 3.9-per-cent contraction in the first quarter.

Calculated on a month-on-month basis, the PCI in May rose 1 per cent, compared with a 0.4-per-cent decrease in April. Passenger-car and motorcycle sales grew 23.8 per cent and 25.8 per cent, respectively, said the BOT.

The PII in May was up 1 per cent month on month, compared with 1.2-per-cent growth in April. Real imports of capital goods increased 2.4 per cent, higher than the 1.9-per-cent growth of the previous month.

Exports grew 19.9 per cent last month, thanks mostly to an increase in export quantity. Exports in April and May rose 18.3 per cent year on year, compared with 18.5-per-cent growth in the first quarter.

Total imports in the first two months of the second quarter were up 9.3 per cent, higher than the 5.3-per-cent growth in all of the first quarter. Last month, growth escalated 6.2 per cent, due mainly to vehicle, raw-material and capital-goods imports.

The trade surplus was US$400 million (Bt13.81 billion) in April and May, compared with a first-quarter surplus of $3.6 billion. The current-account surplus was $100 million, lower than the first quarter's $4.9 billion.

Amara said external stability remained in line with earlier bank projections.

Anoma Srisukkasem

The Nation

yes.... definatly a crisis

[Mid]

Thailand's investor confidence index in May rose sharply above 50

Saturday 30 June 2007 03:02:33 PM (GMT+7:00)

BANGKOK, June 30 (TNA) - Thailand's investor confidence index in May improved to 50.7, the first time in the four months that it had jumped above the 50 level, a senior Bank of Thailand (BoT) official said.

Amara Sriphayak, senior director of BoT's Domestic Economic Department, said the increase in investor confidence index in May was in line with rises in the private investment index and private consumption which each gained one per cent for two consecutive months.

Sales of passenger cars and motorcycles in May improved slightly from April. Sales of passenger cars in May contracted 4.9 per cent, compared with 17.2 per cent in contract in April while sales of motorcycle contracted 11.7 per cent from 33.3 per cent in April, she said.

Imports in May rose 6.2 per cent to about US$12.18 billion of which imports on raw materials alone soared 13.3 per cent, in line with sharp increases of local consumption and investment. Although imports of capital goods expanded only 6.3 per cent, exports soared 19.9 per cent on earnings of US$12.84 billion, enabling the country to enjoy trade surplus in May of US$656 million.

Trade balance in the past five months enjoyed a surplus of about US$5 billion, she said.

Because of the impressive economic performances in April and May, there are chances for BoT to revise up economic growth for 2007, earlier projected by the central bank at around 3.8-4.8 per cent, said Mrs. Amara.

The revision in growth is expected to be announced by BoT on July 27.

impressive economic performances in April and May

[highdiver]

I am sorry but.... I told you so.. over and over again for the past 2 months...

oh that kool aid tastes so good...

[Mid]

Sales of passenger cars and motorcycles in May improved slightly from April. Sales of passenger cars in May contracted 4.9 per cent, compared with 17.2 per cent in contract in April while sales of motorcycle contracted 11.7 per cent from 33.3 per cent in April, she said

never fear , there's plenty left ,

kool-aid that is .

[bingobongo]

red sure is a pretty color........

[Mid]

I'll just drop this in here , as it IS relevant .....................

Election could be delayed 60 days

Sun, July 1, 2007 : Last updated 6:39 am

Sonthi says polls by end of the year might be difficult

Doubt grew yesterday over possible delay in the promised general election when the Constitution Drafting Assembly (CDA) controversially approved an extended deadline for the completion of the elections for both the House of Representatives and the Senate by another 60 days.

Pravit Rojanaphruk

The Nation

[Mid]

and more ..............

July 1, 2007 : Last updated 12:52 pm

The Thai Chamber of Commerce asked the Monetary Policy Committee for cutting an interest rate for 75 basis points to 1 percentage points today in order to stimulating domestic slumping consumption and stem the baht's continued strength.

Chalida Ekvitthayavechnukul

The Nation

[Mid]

just keeps coming ...........

KTB's bad loans on the rise again

Sun, July 1, 2007 : Last updated 6:39 am

White Knight Viroj's lavish lending rode the firm into the red Krung Thai Bank (KTB) has witnessed a rise in bad loans for the first time in 10 years now that money lent during former president Viroj Nualkhair's "White Knight" campaign has started to turn non-performing.

The bank will be forced to set aside more provisions for the bad debt, president Apisak Tantivorawong said.

Somruedi Banchongduang

The Nation

Edited July 1, 2007 by Mid

[chinthee]

Mid's trying to ruin an otherwise quiet Sunday morning I see.

[Mid]

yep ,

don't like the message ,

shoot the messanger ................................

[jomama]

Thailand's investor confidence index in May rose sharply above 50

Saturday 30 June 2007 03:02:33 PM (GMT+7:00)

BANGKOK, June 30 (TNA) - Thailand's investor confidence index in May improved to 50.7, the first time in the four months that it had jumped above the 50 level, a senior Bank of Thailand (BoT) official said.

Amara Sriphayak, senior director of BoT's Domestic Economic Department, said the increase in investor confidence index in May was in line with rises in the private investment index and private consumption which each gained one per cent for two consecutive months.

Sales of passenger cars and motorcycles in May improved slightly from April. Sales of passenger cars in May contracted 4.9 per cent, compared with 17.2 per cent in contract in April while sales of motorcycle contracted 11.7 per cent from 33.3 per cent in April, she said.

Imports in May rose 6.2 per cent to about US$12.18 billion of which imports on raw materials alone soared 13.3 per cent, in line with sharp increases of local consumption and investment. Although imports of capital goods expanded only 6.3 per cent, exports soared 19.9 per cent on earnings of US$12.84 billion, enabling the country to enjoy trade surplus in May of US$656 million.

Trade balance in the past five months enjoyed a surplus of about US$5 billion, she said.

Because of the impressive economic performances in April and May, there are chances for BoT to revise up economic growth for 2007, earlier projected by the central bank at around 3.8-4.8 per cent, said Mrs. Amara.

The revision in growth is expected to be announced by BoT on July 27.

impressive economic performances in April and May

Do you believe her and her comments about "impressive economic performances" (sic)?

[bingobongo]

yep ,

don't like the message ,

shoot the messanger ................................

dont hate the player, hate the game

[bingobongo]

and more ..............

July 1, 2007 : Last updated 12:52 pm

The Thai Chamber of Commerce asked the Monetary Policy Committee for cutting an interest rate for 75 basis points to 1 percentage points today in order to stimulating domestic slumping consumption and stem the baht's continued strength.

Chalida Ekvitthayavechnukul

The Nation

pure genius i tell you, thats it, flood the economy with more liquidity, whats the worst that can happen beside continuously rising food prices and more oversupply of condos being built due to cheap loans?.......well done junta, well done

[Mid]

impressive ??

of course ,

there are both positive and negative connotations to the word , thus the smile .

[chinthee]

and more ..............

July 1, 2007 : Last updated 12:52 pm

The Thai Chamber of Commerce asked the Monetary Policy Committee for cutting an interest rate for 75 basis points to 1 percentage points today in order to stimulating domestic slumping consumption and stem the baht's continued strength.

Chalida Ekvitthayavechnukul

The Nation

pure genius i tell you, thats it, flood the economy with more liquidity, whats the worst that can happen beside continuously rising food prices and more oversupply of condos being built due to cheap loans?.......well done junta, well done

Yeah, and you can't cover up or gloss over lack of domestic spending.

[ThaiGoon]

Hello all Nobel prize laureates in economics on here. I have a question for you. There's only either a boom or a crisis for an economy? There's nothing in between? Right?

Just wanted to make sure that I got this right.

Edited July 1, 2007 by ThaiGoon

[chinthee]

There is no big crisis and certainly no boom. What we have is a gradually eroding economy that will probably have lower growth rates in the future for many reasons. Certainly no boom on the horizon.

[ThaiGoon]

There is no big crisis and certainly no boom. What we have is a gradually eroding economy that will probably have lower growth rates in the future for many reasons. Certainly no boom on the horizon.

I'm willing to humbly put in about $1000 bet that Thailand's GDP growth for next year will be better than this year. Are you game?

[chinthee]

There is no big crisis and certainly no boom. What we have is a gradually eroding economy that will probably have lower growth rates in the future for many reasons. Certainly no boom on the horizon.

I'm willing to humbly put in about $1000 bet that Thailand's GDP growth for next year will be better than this year. Are you game?

No, I actually agree with you, maybe 4.1 instead of 4.0. Fundamentally, while important neighbors grow at 8%+ this 4% will be ok, but Thailand will certainly fade into the background more so than now.