Middle East Iranian Opposition Gains Momentum Amid Crisis, but Unity Remains Elusive

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Iranian Opposition Gains Momentum Amid Crisis, but Unity Remains Elusive

 

A handwritten banner recently unfurled on a bridge in Tehran carried a stark message from the shadows: “Those who experienced the Iran-Iraq war demand no war again.” Behind this act of defiance were dissidents who, like so many before them, had taken grave risks in a country where criticism of the Islamic regime can lead to prison or worse. But as the political ground trembles beneath the feet of Iran’s leadership, even the most cautious critics now sense a turning point.

 

 

One of the protest’s organizers explained their motivation plainly: “We believe Iran is very close to opening a new regional war, which will cost Iran and all Iranians … Enough is enough. If you don’t take risks, you can’t expect rewards.”

 

 

The moment feared by these mostly young, student-led dissidents — reminiscent of the revolutionary fervor that helped Ayatollah Khomeini overthrow the Shah in 1979 — has now arrived. As Israel steps up its military campaign and the U.S. issues evacuation warnings, the question arises: how strong is Iran’s opposition, and can it truly threaten the Islamic Republic?

 

 

Some believe the time for discreet protest is over. A recent manifesto circulating among dissident networks made a bold call to arms: “Take to the streets and the squares because the future of us all is at stake. Destroy and disable street cameras. Light a fire in the streets and fight the regime’s mercenaries. Break the windows and doors of government and security facilities and block them and take them under your control.” Yet so far, these appeals have not sparked a mass uprising. For now, the majority in Tehran are focused on survival. The Israeli defence minister has bluntly warned the capital “will burn,” prompting a wave of fear and flight.

 

Opponents of the regime, who polls suggest represent a majority of Iranians, have also voiced outrage at Israel’s deadly campaign, which has devastated civilian neighborhoods. Toomaj Salehi, the dissident rapper jailed for supporting 2022’s women-led protests, lashed out in an Instagram post: “If your intention is to kill the people of Iran, at least have the honesty not to hide the burden of that responsibility.” He questioned how nine million people were supposed to evacuate the city.

 

Israel insists its conflict is not with the Iranian people and has encouraged them to rise against the regime. Despite incendiary language from some Israeli officials, political spokespeople have emphasized that their war is with Iran’s clerical leadership, not its citizens.

 

Still, domestic criticism of Iran’s own leadership has grown louder. A public letter signed by several dissidents, including two Nobel laureates, called for Iran to accept a ceasefire and halt uranium enrichment — key demands from both Israel and the U.S. Mostafa Tajzadeh, a former government minister turned imprisoned reformist, issued his own appeal from behind bars: “I believe that for a peaceful transition to democracy, there must be an insistence on a constituent assembly to change the constitution, and compel the government to establish it.” He condemned the Israeli airstrikes, saying they lacked “political and moral justification,” but made it clear that change must also come from within.

 

Iran’s opposition remains fragmented, a loose coalition ranging from religious moderates to liberals, communists, and the controversial Mujahidin e-Khalq — a group responsible for a string of deadly attacks during the revolution. Abroad, Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah, has lent his voice to the Israeli campaign. Though widely unpopular inside Iran, he retains a vocal following among expatriates. “He’s the prince of nowhere,” remarked Sanam Vakil of Chatham House. “The opposition can be described as a mix of activists and technocrats and moderates that would like to see the Islamic Republic move away from ideology and enmity, and transition to an empowered presidential and parliamentary system.”

 

Some of that transition may already be under way. Iranians have become increasingly disengaged from regime politics, with voter turnout at historic lows and public cynicism deepening. But it remains to be seen whether this dissatisfaction can coalesce into coordinated resistance. “If there were no war,” Vakil added, “I think there would have to be a modest acceptance that, with these key people still there, the Islamic Republic’s transformation wasn’t going to be quick, perhaps generational. What Israel is doing is pouring an accelerant on the process, and we are losing control in terms of understanding the direction.”

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from The Times  2025-06-19