As tensions escalate around the Strait of Hormuz, markets have focused on the immediate threat to oil and gas. But a quieter, potentially more dangerous shock is emerging — one that could ripple through farms and food prices worldwide.

If shipping through the Gulf chokepoint remains restricted amid the conflict involving Iran, the world may face a sudden squeeze on fertiliser supplies. Analysts warn that disruption to this overlooked supply chain could hit global agriculture within months.

The Chemical Backbone of Modern Farming

Modern agriculture depends heavily on nitrogen fertiliser — a product made using natural gas through the industrial process pioneered by Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch.

Their breakthrough enabled the mass production of ammonia, the foundation of fertilisers such as urea. Today these chemicals underpin crop yields for staples including wheat, maize and rice. Without them, global harvests would plunge and food supply would tighten rapidly.

Hormuz: A Bottleneck for Fertiliser and Gas

Roughly a third of the world’s traded urea passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf region — including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — has built vast fertiliser production hubs thanks to abundant, cheap natural gas.

That gas not only powers fertiliser plants in the Gulf but also fuels facilities abroad via liquefied natural gas shipments. If tankers cannot pass through Hormuz, both fertiliser exports and the energy needed to produce them elsewhere could stall.

Farmers Face Brutal Choices

The first warning signs would appear during planting seasons across the northern hemisphere. Delayed shipments or soaring prices could force farmers to reduce fertiliser use or switch crops entirely.

Even small reductions in nitrogen application can cause outsized declines in yields. Millions of tonnes of lost grain would ripple through global supply chains — pushing up feed costs, squeezing livestock production and ultimately raising supermarket prices.

Food Security Risks Spread Worldwide

Major agricultural economies are more exposed than they appear. India depends heavily on Gulf LNG imports to run domestic fertiliser plants, while Brazil relies on imported nutrients to sustain soybean and maize output.

In poorer regions such as sub-Saharan Africa — where fertiliser use is already low — higher prices could slash yields further and deepen food insecurity.

Energy shocks hit petrol pumps overnight. Fertiliser shocks arrive months later — when harvests fall and food prices surge. If Hormuz stays closed, the real crisis may not be fuel, but the cost of feeding the world.

How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming

1 hour ago, bannork said:

As tensions escalate around the Strait of Hormuz, markets have focused on the immediate threat to oil and gas. But a quieter, potentially more dangerous shock is emerging — one that could ripple through farms and food prices worldwide.

If shipping through the Gulf chokepoint remains restricted amid the conflict involving Iran, the world may face a sudden squeeze on fertiliser supplies. Analysts warn that disruption to this overlooked supply chain could hit global agriculture within months.

The Chemical Backbone of Modern Farming

Modern agriculture depends heavily on nitrogen fertiliser — a product made using natural gas through the industrial process pioneered by Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch.

Their breakthrough enabled the mass production of ammonia, the foundation of fertilisers such as urea. Today these chemicals underpin crop yields for staples including wheat, maize and rice. Without them, global harvests would plunge and food supply would tighten rapidly.

Hormuz: A Bottleneck for Fertiliser and Gas

Roughly a third of the world’s traded urea passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf region — including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — has built vast fertiliser production hubs thanks to abundant, cheap natural gas.

That gas not only powers fertiliser plants in the Gulf but also fuels facilities abroad via liquefied natural gas shipments. If tankers cannot pass through Hormuz, both fertiliser exports and the energy needed to produce them elsewhere could stall.

Farmers Face Brutal Choices

The first warning signs would appear during planting seasons across the northern hemisphere. Delayed shipments or soaring prices could force farmers to reduce fertiliser use or switch crops entirely.

Even small reductions in nitrogen application can cause outsized declines in yields. Millions of tonnes of lost grain would ripple through global supply chains — pushing up feed costs, squeezing livestock production and ultimately raising supermarket prices.

Food Security Risks Spread Worldwide

Major agricultural economies are more exposed than they appear. India depends heavily on Gulf LNG imports to run domestic fertiliser plants, while Brazil relies on imported nutrients to sustain soybean and maize output.

In poorer regions such as sub-Saharan Africa — where fertiliser use is already low — higher prices could slash yields further and deepen food insecurity.

Energy shocks hit petrol pumps overnight. Fertiliser shocks arrive months later — when harvests fall and food prices surge. If Hormuz stays closed, the real crisis may not be fuel, but the cost of feeding the world.

How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming

On top of that, "bio farming" is advocated. Proplem is, without "artificial fertiliser", crop yields drop by 30%.