Iran’s power struggle — mixed signals shake global markets

Asim Munir (left), Pakistan’s military chief, welcomed by Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, in Tehran last week

Confusion over the Strait of Hormuz has laid bare deep fractures inside Iran’s leadership, with rival power centres issuing conflicting orders as tensions with Donald Trump escalate. What should have been a clear signal to global markets instead turned into a chaotic display of institutional dysfunction.

Within hours, Iran appeared to open the world’s most critical oil chokepoint — then effectively closed it again.

Diplomacy Undone by the Generals

Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi declared the strait “completely open” — a move that could have eased global energy fears. But the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps swiftly contradicted him, asserting control and firing on vessels.

The message was unmistakable: in Iran, diplomats do not command the battlefield. Authority lies elsewhere — and it is willing to act.

Hardliners Turn the Pressure Inward

The backlash in Tehran was immediate and fierce. Hard-line media figures linked to Ali Khamenei demanded the decision be reversed, while state broadcasters questioned why policy was announced online before being explained at home.

Criticism fell squarely on Araghchi, not the military. The imbalance reflects a system where civilian officials can be attacked — but not those who wield force.

Negotiating Without a Single Voice

The deeper problem is structural. Iran appears unable to present a unified position, even on issues as critical as Hormuz. Conflicting narratives — from ceasefire conditions to strategic intent — have left allies, adversaries and even Iranian citizens guessing.

That uncertainty weakens Tehran’s leverage. Deals require clarity; ambiguity invites exploitation.

Trump Seizes the Narrative

Into that vacuum stepped Trump, claiming concessions from Iran while maintaining pressure. With no coordinated response from Tehran, his version of events dominated — shaping global perception before Iran could react.

For hardliners, the optics are damaging: concessions made, pressure sustained, and no clear gain.

A System Without a Referee

The breakdown runs deeper than messaging. With Ali Khamenei no longer able to enforce discipline and key mediators gone, rival factions are openly competing for control.

The result is a state speaking in multiple voices — at the worst possible moment.

Global Stakes, Local Dysfunction

For markets and governments, the implications are stark. Hormuz is too vital for mixed signals, yet Iran’s internal divisions make consistency elusive.

In a crisis where clarity is power, Tehran’s fragmentation may be its greatest vulnerability — and the world’s growing risk.

Hormuz chaos shows Iran is too fractured to speak with one voice