Andy Burnham is heading for Westminster at last — but first he must survive what could become the most explosive by-election in Britain.

Labour’s National Executive Committee has finally cleared the Greater Manchester mayor to stand in the Makerfield contest, opening a direct path back to Parliament and potentially toward a future Labour leadership battle with Sir Keir Starmer. The problem: Nigel Farage’s Reform UK now smells blood in one of Labour’s old industrial heartlands.

Labour’s Safe Seat Suddenly Looks Fragile

Makerfield has been Labour territory since 1983. Yet the numbers now tell a far darker story for the governing party.

Josh Simons held the seat in 2024 by just 5,399 votes over Reform UK. Since then, Labour’s support has slid sharply while Reform has surged across northern England.

This month’s local elections rattled Labour strategists. Reform swept every council ward inside the constituency, taking roughly half the vote while Labour slumped to little more than a quarter.

Burnham Becomes Labour’s Last Defensive Wall

Inside Labour, Burnham is increasingly viewed as the only candidate capable of stopping Farage.

Polling expert Sir John Curtice said Labour would have “less than 5 per cent chance” of holding Makerfield without him. Wes Streeting has already described Burnham as the party’s “best chance” of victory.

The mayor enters the race with unusually strong personal ratings. Pollsters rank him among Britain’s most popular politicians, particularly across the North West where his image as a regional champion still cuts through.

Reform Senses a Political Earthquake

Farage’s party sees the contest as a chance to prove Reform can break Labour’s old “red wall” for good.

There are fresh complications too. The Green Party is preparing its own campaign after stunning Labour earlier this year in nearby Gorton and Denton. Progressive vote-splitting could hand Reform a clearer run.

Some voters may also resent the sense that Makerfield is becoming a launchpad for Burnham’s national ambitions rather than a local fight.

Victory Could Trigger Even Bigger Upheaval

The stakes stretch well beyond one seat.

If Burnham wins, he would almost certainly emerge as a leading contender in any future Labour leadership contest. But victory would also force a costly Greater Manchester mayoral by-election running into millions of pounds.

For Labour, the contest is becoming a brutal test of whether Starmer’s authority can survive Reform’s advance — or whether the party’s future already lies elsewhere.

Can Andy Burnham actually beat Reform to take on Starmer?

‘The power’s gone to his head’: Burnham’s Makerfield gamble triggers Red Wall revolt

Andy Burnham has plunged straight into political danger territory after parachuting into a looming by-election in Makerfield — a Labour stronghold now wobbling under pressure from Nigel Farage’s Reform surge.

The resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons to clear the path for Burnham has turned the former mining seat into a brutal test of Labour’s grip on the Red Wall — and of Burnham’s own ambitions.

From ‘King of the North’ to Outsider?

Burnham’s northern brand once made him a hero to many voters during clashes with Boris Johnson’s government over Covid funding. But in Ashton-in-Makerfield, some residents now see a politician more associated with Manchester’s urban revival than towns left behind by it.

“He thinks more of himself now than other people,” said Ian Lavin, a semi-retired salesman who once admired Burnham. “The power’s gone to his head.”

Reform Senses Blood in the Water

Makerfield may have been Labour territory since 1983, but Reform swept all eight local council wards here last week, taking nearly half the vote. Immigration, economic decline and distrust of Westminster are fuelling the shift.

Locals point to boarded-up shops, vape stores and fading high streets as evidence that promises from London — and Manchester — have not translated into change on the ground.

Labour’s Calculated Risk Starts to Backfire

The by-election itself has angered some voters, who see it as a stitched-up political manoeuvre. Simons’s sudden exit, after only entering Parliament last year, has deepened cynicism about careerism inside Labour.

For many, Burnham’s move looks less like loyalty to Makerfield and more like positioning for national leadership.

A Red Wall Reckoning Looms

The irony is stark: Labour may only hold the seat with a candidate openly critical of the Labour government. Burnham’s appeal rests partly on distancing himself from Westminster — even as he tries to return there.

If Reform can convert local anger into a parliamentary upset, the consequences will stretch far beyond one Lancashire seat. It would send a warning shot through Labour’s northern heartlands — and through Burnham’s own leadership ambitions.

‘The power’s gone to Andy Burnham’s head’: What Makerfield thinks of its wannabe MP