Almost 3 decades ago Thailand's economy crashed...anyone that remembers the lead up to this, do you think we are looking at the economy crashing leading to a collapse in the strength of THB...?

That data says we certainly are and it will eclipse what happened the last time.

42 minutes ago, Slowhand225 said:

That data says we certainly are and it will eclipse what happened the last time.

I think so too. How long for this time, will it last a lot longer

The 400 billion baht "emergency" spending bill seems like a final cash grab. I don't even see the emergency they used to justify it. Thailand was supposed to run out of oil by now, but suddenly that isn't the case.

The BoT leader makes me nervous when he talks about subprime lending for "social" reasons. This always ends in disaster, and if they need to print money to pay back the loan and cover their 800 billion baht budget deficit, things could get really bad. Probably be OK for expats, though.

35 minutes ago, davb said:

The 400 billion baht "emergency" spending bill seems like a final cash grab. I don't even see the emergency they used to justify it. Thailand was supposed to run out of oil by now, but suddenly that isn't the case.

The BoT leader makes me nervous when he talks about subprime lending for "social" reasons. This always ends in disaster, and if they need to print money to pay back the loan and cover their 800 billion baht budget deficit, things could get really bad. Probably be OK for expats, though.

Household debt is at an all time high, jobs are vanishing o a daily basis. Recession is not good especially as it hits the poorest hardest but everything shows it's just around the corner

2 hours ago, baansgr said:

Almost 3 decades ago Thailand's economy crashed...anyone that remembers the lead up to this, do you think we are looking at the economy crashing leading to a collapse in the strength of THB...?

Yes. It's spelt: S-O-R-O-S

14 minutes ago, baansgr said:

Household debt is at an all time high, jobs are vanishing o a daily basis. Recession is not good especially as it hits the poorest hardest but everything shows it's just around the corner

Household debt is still at a fraction of what it is in the west

14 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

Household debt is still at a fraction of what it is in the west

I know but we are not in the west. It is the shocking rate that it has climbed in Thailand and the kind of unsecured debt it is that makes it so alarming

2 minutes ago, baansgr said:

I know but we are not in the west. It is the shocking rate that it has climbed in Thailand and the kind of unsecured debt it is that makes it so alarming

Household debt is calculated as a percentage of GDP, so doesn't matter Thailand isn't in the west.

Keep up the scaremongering, bet you need a much weaker baht to survive here financially

1 minute ago, CallumWK said:

Household debt is calculated as a percentage of GDP, so doesn't matter Thailand isn't in the west.

Keep up the scaremongering, bet you need a much weaker baht to survive here financially

Not scaremongering, just interested in people's views, am sure they are wide and varied. I would of course benefit if THB becomes weaker but I survive quite well on my civil service and private pensions. GDP is a false wether vain to a countries economic strength. Hey, I love Thailand, greatest place to be on Earth but sometimes you have to be realistic

3 hours ago, baansgr said:

Almost 3 decades ago Thailand's economy crashed...anyone that remembers the lead up to this, do you think we are looking at the economy crashing leading to a collapse in the strength of THB...?

So how afraid are you of a crash of the US economy? Looking at household, government and unsecured private debt, isn't the US economy much more likely to crash?

2 minutes ago, stevenl said:

So how afraid are you of a crash of the US economy? Looking at household, government and unsecured private debt, isn't the US economy much more likely to crash?

I don't follow the US economy

34 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

Household debt is calculated as a percentage of GDP, so doesn't matter Thailand isn't in the west.

Keep up the scaremongering, bet you need a much weaker baht to survive here financially

Correct.
The problem is, they don't account for the unsecured debt from loansharks and the like. Its probably 40% of the GDP debt, easily.

7 minutes ago, Slowhand225 said:

Correct.
The problem is, they don't account for the unsecured debt from loansharks and the like. Its probably 40% of the GDP debt, easily.

And that's where the increase in debt has mostly come from. The banks have bent over backwards lending money only for borrowers needing to resort to loansharks to keep up the payments. It's a bubble that is about to burst I feel

4 hours ago, CallumWK said:

Household debt is still at a fraction of what it is in the west

Not sure if that is the case when factoring in informal lending debt. I asked AI, and based on projections from Thai sources it could be as high as on par with the West, or even above.

https://www.bis.org/ifc/publ/ifcb25f.pdf

Grok (AI):

They were good times when you got just over 100 bhat to the pound, building materials were very cheap back then