Burma’s Protests

[John K]

To not expect some fallout in Thailand from the huge anti Junta protests in Burma you need to be doing the ostrich hiding thing. With reports of protesters in the ballpark of 100,000 people, and reports of the military staging for an offensive, it has the makings of a blood bath. No doubt at the least there will be a border run on Thailand if this goes south. Is this the next Tiananmen Square in world history?

What are your thoughts on this situation and how do you think it will effect Thailand?

[sonicdragon]

I sincerely hope there will be a peaceful transition to new regime. However that's probably wishful thinking. Whatever happens, I suppose it's inevitable that there will be an influx of burmese into thailand.

I noticed on Radio Thailand's news hour today that it wasn't even mentioned ! I guess the Thai government is quite scared of the possible fall out.

[absolutelyBangkok]

Thailand is embarrassingly quiet about Myanmar.

Amongst other things another sign how the people here look down on their poorer neighbor.

[wolfmanjack]

If there is a change of government it might mean many Burmese leave thailand to return home. It could also mean a new country for the companies that require cheap labor. If a democratically elected government gets in Burma I for one will be looking for business ops there.

[cdnvic]

Burma has far deeper problems than the clowns running the place. There's a lot of ethnic hatred simmering that without a strong government, could make the balkans look like a tea party, as many of these ethnic groups have their own armies.

Edited September 25, 2007 by cdnvic

[lannarebirth]

Despite whatever lipservice the Chinese or Thai governments may pay to the international community, both governments and private citizens of both countries, have huge investments in Burma. Those deals are mostly joint ventures with the currently ruling junta. They may take a public posture calling for restraint, but their interests are aligned with the junta in maintaining the staus quo. Prepare to be very disappointed by Thailands response to the demonstrations and the aftermath.

[cmsally]

This could get very interesting ; China and Thailand are predictably quiet, US and UK becoming more vocal and the protestors now have the Dalai Lama's approval.

If the military wants to turn nasty they might try to infiltrate the younger more militant faction of the monks. If this is not possible they might try and turn it by starting a crackdown somewhere where they think the media can't get the details.

It will be interesting to see the next few days unfold.

[britmaveric]

Since Burmese are lower than dirt in Thailand - I dare say they could care less. (old enemies grudge I suspect)

[Plus]

Thailand is waiting to pick a winning side. It always does. It's a national trait.

[Ducati]

Our burmese maid tells us of reports from her family and friends back in burma that the goverment is already taking action to permanently neutralise the protestors, including monks. Night time visits I understand. She also talks of the government confiscating or literally burning people's cash - I assume to reduce their ability to protest.

Although not directly involved in any of the current protests, she fears very much for her family including her son. But she will not travel back for fear that the goverment will not allow her entry back into Thailand (which is her and her family's main source of income).

[xyborg]

<br />Thailand is waiting to pick a winning side. It always does. It's a national trait.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

hA HA HA HA HA sad but true!!!!

[cdnvic]

She also talks of the government confiscating or literally burning people's cash.

As a sign of their competent leadership, outside of Burma the matches they use to light the fires are worth more than the kyats they're burning.

[markg]

I have been watching this unfold with great interest, excitement and hope.

I lived in Germany when the wall came down.

I hope yet to be still in Thailand when this Burmese regime crumbles.

Difficult to get decent news - the BBC appear to be doing all their reporting from Bangkok for example.

Could we possibly see the ironic situation of Burma being free and Thailand still being under a military junta? That would be funny.

I wonder if Thai's would migrate to Burma? That would be even funnier.

Course, its not going to happen. I just hope they get democracy, and it comes about peacefully.

[phazey]

If there is change, it won't be overnight......

[Shah Jahan]

if a revolution is in fact successful then i am immediately opening up an office in Yangoon

that place will be a goldmine and since it will most likely be US supported, it will be very friendly to do business

[cdnvic]

Or it could become very unstable and lawless.

[sonicdragon]

if a revolution is in fact successful then i am immediately opening up an office in Yangoon

that place will be a goldmine and since it will most likely be US supported, it will be very friendly to do business

I would imagine that China will do everything in it's power to ensure that it keeps a very big influence in Burma, and that would include preventing any direct US support.

[jumnien]

Every alcoholic cowboy journalist that's had his fill in the 'stans should be headed to Bangkok to party now and pick up a piece of the Burma protest prize! Nana and Cowboy should be a bit more crowded while this is on the front pages.

[Shah Jahan]

if a revolution is in fact successful then i am immediately opening up an office in Yangoon

that place will be a goldmine and since it will most likely be US supported, it will be very friendly to do business

I would imagine that China will do everything in it's power to ensure that it keeps a very big influence in Burma, and that would include preventing any direct US support.

you definitely have a point, if i remember correctly that is kinda how the vietnam war got started

right now the chinese (thai too) already have big influence, but they are one with the Junta - without the junta - then the chinese lose most of their pull

so they have more than one reason to see the junta hold power.

The US would obviously love to push the junta out and get the Cowboys in there for a healthy dose of capitalism. Burma if properly opened and secured, would very quickly become a fantastic international capital for culture, business and tourism.

i have a feeling this is going to become an interesting international game of chess that goes beyond a few murderous black magic players and the red monks who oppose them

The Junta is already a dead duck - what I estimate will happen is that the CIA will quietly back one of the ethic groups (I vote for the Karen) and the Chinese will back another one, and they will play civil war against each other (heard this story before?)

Edited September 25, 2007 by Shah Jahan

[markg]

I just showed one of the pictures of the monks protesting to one of our Thai heads of departments at school.

She had no idea at all of what the picture was.

I prompted her a little - (it's happening in a country nearby and it's happening right now)

nada.

So i said, "it's monks. Protesting. Any idea where?"

niet.

So i said, "it's in Burma. The people and monks are protesting for democracy........."

She just shrugged her shoulders and walked off.

Does any one know if any other Asian countries have made any political statements yet about all this?

[sriracha john]

Buddhist monks led an anti-government protest Monday through Yangon, Myanmar. The Associated Press estimated the crowd to be as large as 100,000 people.

New York Times

[qualtrough]

Burma has far deeper problems than the clowns running the place. There's a lot of ethnic hatred simmering that without a strong government, could make the balkans look like a tea party, as many of these ethnic groups have their own armies.

Spot on. While SLORC or whatever they go by now is reprehensible, the idea that everything would be hunky-dory if the military would just go away in naive. The regime was not imposed by outside forces, it is indigenous and supported by more Burmese than many probably imagine. There could well be tremendous bloodshed and turmoil--it won't be pretty.

[0Mix1up]

Supposedly Bush is going to announce new sanctions at a U.N. meeting.

Which at least draws world attention to that dreadful situation.

Hopefully a shift in a better direction without bloodshed is possible?

Thailand? aren't they in the same situ? sort of? just a different time span.

[wileycoyote]

I think Thailand is correct to stand aside.

I think China will be unable to control a junta ,that sees its powers slipping away .

Without being pessimistic,unless the junta create a massacre and their own soldiers join the protestors ,I doubt if there will any immediate change.

Wiley Coyote

[qualtrough]

BBC is now saying there are reports that riot police are on the move in Rangoon.

[sriracha john]

From ABC News:

US President George W Bush has announced new US sanctions against Burma's military rulers and has urged other countries to follow suit, amid Burma's biggest anti-government protests in 20 years.

In a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, Mr Bush said the Burmese people's desire for freedom was unmistakable.

"I'm announcing a series of steps to help bring peaceful change to Burma," he said.

"The United States will tighten economic sanctions on the leaders of the regime and their financial backers.

"We will impose an expanded visa ban on those responsible for the most egregious violations of human rights, as well as their family members."

He added that Americans were "outraged" by rights abuses in Burma.

On Monday (local time), Buddhist monks had been joined by reports of tens of thousands of protesters on marches in Burma in the biggest demonstration against the ruling generals since they crushed student-led protests nearly 20 years ago.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told Reuters in an interview on Monday that the US would step up pressure for the UN Security Council to take action. China and Russia vetoed a resolution on Burma in January.

"The international community's got to stand up much more than it has," Dr Rice said.

"I think what the Burmese junta is doing is just a reminder of how really brutal this regime is."

[sriracha john]

Myanmar police try to quell protests

YANGON -- Riot police Tuesday moved to quell week-long pro-democracy protests in the streets of Myanmar's capital, but at least 10,000 people failed to heed warnings.

Britain's Daily Telegraph reported military trucks took to the streets, blaring warnings against joining the demonstrations, but without making specific threats.

Some 100,000 Buddhist monks, who have been leading the protests, and civilians marched Monday in Yangon.

Students joined the protest for the first time Tuesday in defiance of a televised order by the junta Monday warning the protests were illegal and would be "dispersed by military force," the BBC reported.

- United Press International

[ourmanflint]

We can only wait and see how the junta will react to this quite audacious series of protests by the monks, China has been urging restraint, it is itself rediscovering it's Buddhist past and there will be a lot of pressure from them to not openly attack protesting monks.

I'll be going over to Yangon at the end of October, it should be a very interesting time to be there. I only hope it will be a peaceful trip.

[sriracha john]

Brown calls for Burmese 'restraint'

Gordon Brown has called on Burmese authorities to "exercise restraint" as thousands of monks march for an end to military rule in the country.

The Prime Minister called for an "immediate international action" to stave off any military crackdown as around 10,000 monks defied warnings by the ruling generals and took to the streets chanting "democracy, democracy".

After demonstrators left the area around the Sule Pagoda in central Yangon, the destination of a week of marches by the deeply revered maroon-robed monks, riot police and troops moved in.

Eight trucks arrived with police carrying shields, batons and rifles while 11 army trucks packed with soldiers also drove in, suggesting the rulers, or junta, is filling up the city centre to counter any attempt at a repeat, witnesses said.

The area around the Sule Pagoda was the scene of the worst bloodshed during a crackdown on nationwide pro-democracy protests in 1988 in which 3,000 people are thought to have been killed.

In letters to the current holder of the European Union presidency, Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates, and United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon, Mr Brown called for a warning to Rangoon of tougher sanctions if there is a crackdown.

He told Mr Ban he would support an urgent visit to Burma by UN special envoy Ibrahim Gambari, as well as discussions at the UN Security Council.

And Foreign Secretary David Miliband told Labour's conference: "The situation there is tense, the world wants to see restraint from the authorities.

"But I also want to say this. I, for one, thought it was brilliant to see Aung San Suu Kyi alive and well outside her house last week. I think it will be 100 times better when she takes her rightful place as the elected leader of a free and democratic Burma."

Meanwhile, in Taunggok, a coastal city 250 miles northwest of Yangon, up to 40,000 monks and civilians took to the streets as the campaign against 45 years of military rule swelled in size.

In a gesture of defiance, some waved the bright red "fighting peacock" flag, emblem of the student unions that spearheaded a the 1988 uprising, one the darkest episodes in Burma's modern history.

Vehicles mounted with loudspeakers toured the city in the morning blaring out threats of action under a law allowing the use of military force to break up illegal protests.

The broadcasts said: "People are not to follow, encourage or take part in these marches. Action will be taken against those who violate this order."

A stall-holder said: "I'm really worried about the possible outbreak of violence. We know from experience that these people never hesitate to do what they want."

China, the closest the generals have to an ally, has remained silent apart from calling for national reconciliation and a "democracy process that is appropriate for the country".

- Independent Television News (UK)

[Plus]

Could various Burmese threads be merged? They are largely duplicating each other.