Farm Cost Increases

[Loom]

I think what we are seeing on price increases on any product remotely connected to petroleum is price gougeing by manufactors. If, as one person noted petrolem prices are based on replacement costs, how do you replace a fuel supply which is disappearing, faster than we can find it? This is the same product that 7 years ago was selling for 12. dollar a bbl. There is a lot of Middle east oil that was intially produced for 2. dollars a bbl. I do not believe well production cost has not gone to 90 or 100 dollars on these wells. Refining charges quoted at 3 to 4 dollar a bbl are now using 20. here in Asia. When I see profits in 6 to 8 billion/ qtr from oil companies I feel vindicated in my orginal thought.No I am not anti oil, after working in that sector for more than 30 years, but do get kind of upset with some of the statements made by some of the powers that be, involved in the industry. No I do not have an answer or a solution, but do expect to pay too much for petroleum products, for awhile. Some people blame the funds for getting heavily involved in future markets.

In theory and allowing for the smoothing of prices over time as opposed to having the price directly linked to the commodities exchange at the pump (now there is a novel idea !) the fuel price would largely follow the crude prices with all other things remaining the same. However, it is the oil companies themselves who internally account for the future cost of ever more expensive exploration and extraction to justify the fairly static price they sell at to retailers.

In days of yore when these companies were largely controlled by families then bumper profits earned today would be retained to smooth future leaner years but with the average lifespan of a CEO ever decreasing and with both hedge funds and private investors wanting ever increasing dividends, the pressure to declare profits as they are earned is very high.

Oil pricing is more complicated than replacement cost. Supply and demand determine pricing at the margin. OPEC is bumping up against capacity and non-Opec production is flattish. Higher prices will make it economic to increase production of oil that wasn't economic before, but this will take a few years to happen. So supply isn't increasing much but demand is surging in China/India. There will probably be some relief on the demand side as the global economy slows in the coming months.

If biofuel is economic at $90 oil I'd expect substitution of traditional food products for biofuel crops (in Thailand I understand cassava and sugar cane are used for biofuel). That may be one reason explaining why grain prices are soaring in the global market. Another reason would be higher production-related fuel costs. In our area, the quantity of rice paid for land rental will be about 17% higher next season.

[Tilapia]

I have today purchased the remaining stock at my local Sahagon of 15-7-18 fertiliser for cassava @B715. The new price is B850. This represents a whopping 19% increase.

We bought a load of fish food yesterday, and the boss at our local Sahagon told me that the Rabbit brand 16-20-0 that we use in the ponds had gone to 950 bt a bag now.. thats from 590 to 950 in two rises over 2 months = 60% increase.

Hate to think what the 0-46-0 triple Superphosphate we used to use is now,it was 1150 bt a bag 6 months ago.

ozzy

Last October we were paying B335 for 20kg of Cargiol 30% protein fish feed. We are now paying B410 for the same feed. A 22% increase. Over the same time period the sales price of our catfish has gone from B33 to B36/kg or a 9% increase. With those numbers we're thinking about giving up...with a 60% increase in feed I'd pull the drain plugs on the ponds!

The price increase hit me as well, now the production cost for 30% protein floating pellets is 290 baht/bag of 20kg.

[chownah]

Being mostly organic I haven't had any price rises of any significance. I grow all the seed I use for my green manure crops and animal manures get created right here so if you keep some animals you've got your supply. When rice season comes around again I'll have to pay the higher price for the chemical fertilizers I will use there but I am expanding the area I'm growing organically so I won't need as much.....in a few more years I won't be having to buy any fertilizer at all I hope....we'll see....I still have to buy diesel fuel but its not a big expense and I'm working on making my tillage and pumping as efficient as possible...it all takes alot of time since there is no one here who has experience with this type of farming so I have to figure it out on my own.

Chownah

[Khonwan]

Being mostly organic I haven't had any price rises of any significance. I grow all the seed I use for my green manure crops and animal manures get created right here so if you keep some animals you've got your supply. When rice season comes around again I'll have to pay the higher price for the chemical fertilizers I will use there but I am expanding the area I'm growing organically so I won't need as much.....in a few more years I won't be having to buy any fertilizer at all I hope....we'll see....I still have to buy diesel fuel but its not a big expense and I'm working on making my tillage and pumping as efficient as possible...it all takes alot of time since there is no one here who has experience with this type of farming so I have to figure it out on my own.

Chownah

I appreciate that organic works for you on your few rai but have you considered what you would do if you were farming 200 rai? Apart from the fact that manure costs 3 times as much as chemical fertiliser (nutrient basis), where exactly would you source 200-400 tonne?

[chownah]

Being mostly organic I haven't had any price rises of any significance. I grow all the seed I use for my green manure crops and animal manures get created right here so if you keep some animals you've got your supply. When rice season comes around again I'll have to pay the higher price for the chemical fertilizers I will use there but I am expanding the area I'm growing organically so I won't need as much.....in a few more years I won't be having to buy any fertilizer at all I hope....we'll see....I still have to buy diesel fuel but its not a big expense and I'm working on making my tillage and pumping as efficient as possible...it all takes alot of time since there is no one here who has experience with this type of farming so I have to figure it out on my own.

Chownah

I appreciate that organic works for you on your few rai but have you considered what you would do if you were farming 200 rai? Apart from the fact that manure costs 3 times as much as chemical fertiliser (nutrient basis), where exactly would you source 200-400 tonne?

Khonwan,

Before answering you questions I want to say the I posted in this topic to mention how farm cost increases were affecting me....this by and large what everyone is doing....so I did the same. I am not trying to convince anyone that they should become organic farmers. I more or less think that everyone should decide for themselves what they want to farm and how they want to do it. I present my experiences here just like eveyone else....but for some reason there are a number of farmers here who seem to think that I'm running some kind of campaign to promote organic farming everytime I post. To be honest I would like to promote organic farming but the best way to do it is to just talk about what it is like to be an organic farmer and to explain how it works and what the advantages and disadvantages are.....there are alot of disadvantages in being an organic farmer. One of the disadvantages is that alot of non-organic farmers in the world have got a big chip on their shoulder and anyone who even mentions organic farming is the equivalent of knocking the chip off the shoulder and starting a fight. It is not my intention to fight with anyone....it is my intention to post what my experiences and thoughts are. I am not writing this because I think that you are one of these people....I am writing this because it recently I feel that a renewed attack on my posting has been mounted.....an increased number of what I see as disrespectul comments seems to be happening especially in the last few weeks.....it seems like some people are trying to push my ideas off the forum through ridicule and rudeness......so......I thought I would take this opportunity to post my feelings about what is happening in the farming forum as an introduction to my answers to your questions....that introduction specifically being: I'll be glad to answer your questions but please don't think that I'm in any way trying to tell you that you should change your farming practices. I am not trying to challenge you in any way.

Ok....farming large tract organically usually does not include spreading huge amounts of manure. Exactly what must be done varies on the crop, soil, and climate. Green manure cropping is a major tool....crop rotation is another. Many people claim that organic can not work on large scale farms. Lundberg farms in the US is a huge farm growing organic rice.....they are running a huge and profitable organic rice farming operation....so this shows that it is at least possible sometimes to have a large farm profitably running on organic technology....these guys are big time.....they seed their rice with airplanes. I would give some advise on how to run a large farming operation organically but I have never done it so all my advise in that regard would be second hand or theoretic.

Cost comparison of manure to chemicals on a nutrient basis is a reasonable thing to do but it undervalues the manure. I'm not saying that you can fertilize a crop to the same degree with purchased manure for the same cost as with chemical fertilizers because you can not. If you want to run an organic operation and use manure for large fields then my advise is to raise some animals to generate the manure...or at least some of it....but as I said before usually large tracts are not fertilized by large applications of animal manures.

If you really do want to buy several hundred tonnes of manure (or is your question only rhetorical?) I suggest going to places where there are alot of animals....dairy farms, stock yards, chicken farms.....

If you really want to learn about what to do to grow large areas organically you should search the internet and learn about organic methods....one of them will be green manure cropping. Through growing a nitrogen fixing plant and plowing it into the soil can add a large amount of nitrogen to the soil and the decaying vegetable material will create organic acids which will make phosphorous and potassium (and other minerals) available for plant usage if they are already in the soil in insoluble/unusable forms......but.....if you really want to learn about organic farming then put some effort into an internet search and get familiar with how its done. It is sad to say but it seems like people who ask questions like yours usually have no real interest in organic farming but they just want to prove that organic farming is not viable.....I don't know what your intentions are in your post....I hope you are interested in learning about organic farming....that is why I have posted here.....

By the way....one of the usual disadvantages of organic farming is a smaller profit margin.

Chownah

Edited February 18, 2008 by chownah

[Khonwan]

By the way....one of the usual disadvantages of organic farming is a smaller profit margin.

Chownah

Nuff said.

[ozzydom]

Chownah, Your comments regarding your perception that people are "having a go at you" is duly noted.

You must also understand that many of the members in the Farming Forum are in farming in a big way ,also being the astute farmers that they are ,I feel sure that they have considered any benefits that organics may have for their operations.

Growing green crops ,legume or not and ploughing it in was standard agricultural practice in some forms of farming, but those in the farming industry for profit can ill afford to tie their land up for the time required to do this.

In addition ,most cash crops here are grown to suit the seasons and to grow legume crops in the hot/dry season on a large scale would require irrigation ,the cost of which would make the excercise financially unviable.

Your intentions regarding organic farming are I believe noble ones and I am sure there are many small land-owners and gardeners with an interest in the practice,so might I suggest you start a thread pertaining to organics in which you and like-minded folk can share your common interest.

regards

ozzy

[chownah]

there are many small land-owners and gardeners with an interest in the practice,so might I suggest you start a thread pertaining to organics in which you and like-minded folk can share your common interest

Ozzydom,

Thanks for the advise. There already is a thread for this purpose. I will continue to post in any thread. There is no reason to segregate out different farmers to different threads based on their practices. If people are not interested in how organic growing relates to a thread or how a thread relates to organic growing then they can simply ignore that aspect of what I or anyone else posts in that regard.

Chownah

[chownah]

By the way....one of the usual disadvantages of organic farming is a smaller profit margin.

Chownah

Nuff said.

Indeed. I figured that last sentence would address your main concern.

Chownah

Edited February 18, 2008 by chownah

[Khonwan]

Just bought another 10 - 50kg bags of 20-8-20 fertilizer in Ban Phue this week end...990 baht per bag...

Stoneman

I was fortunate to buy the last 26 bags of 20-8-20 at my local Sahagon last week @730 baht.

Rgds

Khonwan

[ozzydom]

there are many small land-owners and gardeners with an interest in the practice,so might I suggest you start a thread pertaining to organics in which you and like-minded folk can share your common interest

Ozzydom,

Thanks for the advise. There already is a thread for this purpose. I will continue to post in any thread. There is no reason to segregate out different farmers to different threads based on their practices. If people are not interested in how organic growing relates to a thread or how a thread relates to organic growing then they can simply ignore that aspect of what I or anyone else posts in that regard.

Chownah

There was no ulterior motive to the suggestion chownah, I just had the idea that an organic gardening thread might get people involved who are a bit shy at posting in a basically commercial style forum. If you want to read anything else into the post that is totally up to you.

[chownah]

there are many small land-owners and gardeners with an interest in the practice,so might I suggest you start a thread pertaining to organics in which you and like-minded folk can share your common interest

Ozzydom,

Thanks for the advise. There already is a thread for this purpose. I will continue to post in any thread. There is no reason to segregate out different farmers to different threads based on their practices. If people are not interested in how organic growing relates to a thread or how a thread relates to organic growing then they can simply ignore that aspect of what I or anyone else posts in that regard.

Chownah

There was no ulterior motive to the suggestion chownah, I just had the idea that an organic gardening thread might get people involved who are a bit shy at posting in a basically commercial style forum. If you want to read anything else into the post that is totally up to you.

You may see this as a "commercial style forum" but I think this is just your take on it. This is the "Farming in Thailand" forum. Its about farming in Thailand and I don't think that it was ever meant to be "Commercial Style Farming in Thailand" forum. Not wanting to raise anyone's blood pressure but I think that my style of farming is more like what most Thai farmers do...at least it is more like what farmers around here do most definitely. Around here when people who don't know me ask my neighbors what I do they tell them that I am a chownah ...they tell them her REALLY IS a chownah...which means I am a farmer like all the local people are farmers...it doesn't mean that I am a commercial style farmer...it doesn't mean that I went to school to learn how to farm...it means I'm not afraid to walk the bull around on its rope...it means I have a two wheeled tractor and I walk behind it myself and do the hard work of farming Thai style...it means I smile even when I put in alot of hard work and it comes to nothing.

If people are a bit shy at posting here it is because they are treated so shabbily.

Chownah

[ozzydom]

quote==

If people are a bit shy at posting here it is because they are treated so shabbily.

Chownah

Would you care to substantiate that statement with some facts and instances of posters being treated shabbily in the Farming Forum, I only see exchanges of information and assistance for posters who ask for it.

A point you seem to have overlooked is that Thaivisa is primarily an ex-pats forum ,not a Thai farmers forum,if your choice is to try to emulate a village Thais lifestyle that is your decision,but most members here aspire to do better than that.

I extended to you an olive branch,but it appears that you have some personal problem with me ,if so I would be only too happy to sort it out per PM,

Alternatively if you would prefer to direct any grievances to administration ,I am sure they will get a fair hearing.

[stoneman]

Just bought another 10 - 50kg bags of 20-8-20 fertilizer in Ban Phue this week end...990 baht per bag...

Stoneman

I was fortunate to buy the last 26 bags of 20-8-20 at my local Sahagon last week @730 baht.

Rgds

Khonwan

Did you happen to ask them what the new price will be when they get their new stock in?

Stoneman

[chownah]

Ozzydom,

Since you asked here is an example. It is nothing to make a big deal over. I chose it because it was close at hand and is an example of a continual ongoing subtle disrespect:

"if your choice is to try to emulate a village Thais lifestyle that is your decision,but most members here aspire to do better than that."

You probably don't get it so I'll explain. It is saying that a village lifestyle (or wanting to emulate one) is an unworthy thing to aspire to and that most people have much better things to aspire to.

Here's another....on this one I'll recreate the entire post:

".....oh dear oh dear......where are we heading.. "

This one is probably more appropriate for this thread than the one I've taken it from.....I'm following your lead here Ozzydom.....where are we headed? Do you want more examples....I could go back and find some really juicy examples which you should probably remember but evidentally have forgotten.....but you know really the most blatant ones have been deleted after they were pointed out to the moderators.....so sorry I can't recreate the really really good ones. More recent ones are just the ongoing stuff like the first two....although I have been recently accused of "posting trash again".

Chownah

[Maizefarmer]

Yes Chownah - its the same problem everyone has with you. Its the same problem you have here and elsewhere - you just never learn, do you.

I should actually have shut my mouth, but seen as you wish to requote what I have said I'm going to add my 2 cents....

While you have every right to use this forum as much as anyone else don't patronise folk - we can all Goolge info, we're all online and we all have access to Google.

Demonstrate practical knowledge - folk here are looking for practical and real world solutions they can implement to their questions - that are commensurate with their scale of farming - not thousands of posts referancing Google writeups which may well be bang on correct theoreticaly, but seldom of any realisable end-user benefit, considering the circumstances and restrictions most ex-pats have to work with in Thailand.

Do you realise the differance?

[fruity]

Monday morning in the feed merchants, everything up a further 4% across the board as from start of business! Sickening! This is the fourth price hike in six months! 4% doesn't sound much, however, when coupled with all the other increases of late it adds up to be a fair bit of doe.

[Maizefarmer]

... and theres more on the way fruity

[fruity]

... and theres more on the way fruity

sigh:(.........When will it stabilise I wonder?

[chownah]

quote==

If people are a bit shy at posting here it is because they are treated so shabbily.

Chownah

Would you care to substantiate that statement with some facts and instances of posters being treated shabbily in the Farming Forum, I only see exchanges of information and assistance for posters who ask for it.

Ozzydom,

Here's another example....right here in this thread:

------------------

Yes Chownah - its the same problem everyone has with you. Its the same problem you have here and elsewhere - you just never learn, do you.

I should actually have shut my mouth, but seen as you wish to requote what I have said I'm going to add my 2 cents....

While you have every right to use this forum as much as anyone else don't patronise folk - we can all Goolge info, we're all online and we all have access to Google.

Demonstrate practical knowledge - folk here are looking for practical and real world solutions they can implement to their questions - that are commensurate with their scale of farming - not thousands of posts referancing Google writeups which may well be bang on correct theoreticaly, but seldom of any realisable end-user benefit, considering the circumstances and restrictions most ex-pats have to work with in Thailand.

Do you realise the differance?

---------------

The fact is that I'm here looking for practical and real world solutions that I can implement.....I'm not here looking for abuse and to be treated shabbily by post like this one.

Chownah

[ozzydom]

Chownah,I previously suggested that if you had any LEGITIMATE grievances ,to take them up with either myself or Admin per PM ,but it seems that you are intent on arguing the point on open forum.

For a start, to me a spade is a spade, I do not put hidden meanings in my posts, if you want to interpret my or anybody elses posts other than what they are or say,then that is a personal problem you have to deal with.

IMHO,Maizefarmers post is factual and to the point,(but feel free to get a higher opinion).

Why on earth you keep insisting that you are the "injured " party is way beyond me. Your style of posting whereby you ask mundane questions then Google up alternate views just to be arguementive and antagonistic in your replies gets up peoples noses and the sooner you come to this realisation the better.

Most people learn from their mistakes,your past record makes you the exception.

This is my final word on the matter in open forum, if you wish to take it further please use the PM facility.

ozzydom

[Khonwan]

Just bought another 10 - 50kg bags of 20-8-20 fertilizer in Ban Phue this week end...990 baht per bag...

Stoneman

I was fortunate to buy the last 26 bags of 20-8-20 at my local Sahagon last week @730 baht.

Rgds

Khonwan

Did you happen to ask them what the new price will be when they get their new stock in?

Stoneman

I had purchased 15-7-18 just days before @715 baht (15 baht cheaper than 20-8-20). The new price of 850 baht was already being charged for 15-7-18 at the next closest Sahagon. I don't know what the new price of 20-8-20 is but would guess around 870 baht. I'll try to get a new price list when I next pass their office.

[ozzydom]

Has anybody else noticed the large price hikes in stock food and fertilizer etc lately ?

In one week our fish feed went from 220 baht a bag to 255 baht, 16-20-0 fertilizer I use for greening the ponds went from 590 baht to 850 baht .

I cant see where these kind of increases can be attributed to fuel costs , maybe just an excuse for a bit of profiteering.

If these increases flow on to the end product I can see tough times ahead for the consumers, already Pla Nin supplied by CP to the market vendors are now 60-65 baht compared to 45-50 baht 2 weeks ago.

Could be the reason most pig sty,s are empty at the moment even though pork is at about 48 baht, lots of villagers put suckers in as soon as they finish rice harvest , but this year seems an exception.

Any thoughts ?

Where does it bloody end,just been out to stock up.

15.5% fish food now 285 baht ,up from 220 in Jan

16-20-0 fertilizer now 1020 baht bag, up from 590 in Jan

0-46-0 fertilizer now 2380 baht bag up from 900 in Jan

cow poo now 200 baht per cm up from 100 in Jan

The red line has just breached the black and I cant find any other cost savings so unless things change dramatically it will be "shut the gate mate" at the end of our current stock.

[Pierrot]

Sorry, I don't have very good news for people invested in farming.

I just learned this morning from Chinese fertilizer producers (in China) that the central governement announced a 100 percent tax on fertilizer exports on April 17 (effective on April 22).

For the big picture : http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/01/bus.../fertilizer.php

So be ready for more increase to come

[himachal]

Seems a lot of the posts in this thread concentrate on the cost of fertilisers and one alternative (ie. going organic) doesn't seem popular with some posters.

So my question is: if any farmers here feel they must use fertilisers to make a profit, what can be done to use them more sparingly and so save a bit of money?

[ozzydom]

Seems a lot of the posts in this thread concentrate on the cost of fertilisers and one alternative (ie. going organic) doesn't seem popular with some posters.

So my question is: if any farmers here feel they must use fertilisers to make a profit, what can be done to use them more sparingly and so save a bit of money?

The main types of crops grown here, the traditionally poor soil and the methods of cultivation do not lend themselves to (ie. going organic).

By your definition ,I take it you are referring to building up the soil organically,if so the constraints of time are a problem.

To say,grow green crops or Nitrogen fixing crops to be ploughed under, requires irrigation which many farmers dont have the resources of either water or equipment , besides which this does not replace expended elements, (prime or trace).

Adequate fertilizer can mean differences of !00% and more in yield and yield is the name of the game.

[himachal]

Seems a lot of the posts in this thread concentrate on the cost of fertilisers and one alternative (ie. going organic) doesn't seem popular with some posters.

So my question is: if any farmers here feel they must use fertilisers to make a profit, what can be done to use them more sparingly and so save a bit of money?

The main types of crops grown here, the traditionally poor soil and the methods of cultivation do not lend themselves to (ie. going organic).

By your definition ,I take it you are referring to building up the soil organically,if so the constraints of time are a problem.

To say,grow green crops or Nitrogen fixing crops to be ploughed under, requires irrigation which many farmers dont have the resources of either water or equipment , besides which this does not replace expended elements, (prime or trace).

Adequate fertilizer can mean differences of !00% and more in yield and yield is the name of the game.

I hear what you're saying, Ozzydom. I appreciate that most farmers don't have the luxury of being able to wait for their land to 'get a good year's sleep'! But my question is if you're going to use chemical fertilizers, how can you make the same profit as last year if the price keeps rising? Any methods members here use to 'spread the muck a little thinner' as it were? (Maybe this question should be in the Chemistry forum!!!)

[ozzydom]

Seems a lot of the posts in this thread concentrate on the cost of fertilisers and one alternative (ie. going organic) doesn't seem popular with some posters.

So my question is: if any farmers here feel they must use fertilisers to make a profit, what can be done to use them more sparingly and so save a bit of money?

The main types of crops grown here, the traditionally poor soil and the methods of cultivation do not lend themselves to (ie. going organic).

By your definition ,I take it you are referring to building up the soil organically,if so the constraints of time are a problem.

To say,grow green crops or Nitrogen fixing crops to be ploughed under, requires irrigation which many farmers dont have the resources of either water or equipment , besides which this does not replace expended elements, (prime or trace).

Adequate fertilizer can mean differences of !00% and more in yield and yield is the name of the game.

I hear what you're saying, Ozzydom. I appreciate that most farmers don't have the luxury of being able to wait for their land to 'get a good year's sleep'! But my question is if you're going to use chemical fertilizers, how can you make the same profit as last year if the price keeps rising? Any methods members here use to 'spread the muck a little thinner' as it were? (Maybe this question should be in the Chemistry forum!!!)

Simple, unless your produce price keeps pace with your costs rises you go backwards.

Getting soil analysis done will mean you only apply the amount of fertilizer required to correct deficiencies and not waste it where it is not needed.

[slapout]

Just reviewing cost of fertilizer in the US will try to put this into baht for comparision purposes. The aim of the article was to encourge soil testing on small areas (5 to 8 rai) and fertilize your crop land by area and crop, thus changing crop if fertilizer requirement cost, is too high for profit on said crop. 16-20-10 fertilizer in 100 pound lot. Cost of each ingredent 22-27-25 baht per pound. By my math this would put the cost of 100 lbs of 16-20-10 at about 1142 baht without adding in cost of inert material, etc. The 0-46-0 quoted above at 2380 baht would work out to about 1282, plus inert material, etc. I think that this type of thinking and number crunching, along with demand for a fertilizer mix that is needed by the farmer for the crop he is growing, and not what the suppliers have on hand or want to promote will have to invade the Thai farming sector to keep it at a profit level. The harvesting of feed forage is under close study, as letting certain crops mature 7 days too long can decease protein content from 21% to 13% thus requireing high priced supplements to get gain ratio on cattle back to a 3 to 1 ratio. If any of you farmers can convience the Thai family, help, suppliers of feed and fertilizer etc of this approach to farming, let me know. You might also try the Ministry of Agriculture while your in the education mode.

[Gary A]

Has anyone tested their soil themselves? Communication problems and trying to get soil tests have proven very difficult for me. I found this link and the information sounds good but whether it is worth the time and money is beyond me.

http://www.biconet.com/testing/rapitestSoilKit.html

ADDED - My wife and most of the locals are using 16-16-16 for everything. I'm sure that in many cases. it is a waste of hard earned baht.

Edited May 21, 2008 by Gary A