Knightsbridge Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 Hi Just learnt with excitement the capital controls have been removed! That means the doors are open for foreign inflows. Don't want to be a speculator here, but would be interesting to know opinions of what could happen Monday? Will there be a mad rush of investors as various top Thai economists predict? What Thai resources will be target buys? what are the positives and the negatives? And any Baht earners going to buy up in the US? Will the GBP equually decline? Remember there was that massive selloff in December 2006 - will there be massive buy up? Monday awaits.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knightsbridge Posted February 29, 2008 Author Share Posted February 29, 2008 HiJust learnt with excitement the capital controls have been removed! That means the doors are open for foreign inflows. Don't want to be a speculator here, but would be interesting to know opinions of what could happen Monday? Will there be a mad rush of investors as various top Thai economists predict? What Thai resources will be target buys? what are the positives and the negatives? And any Baht earners going to buy up in the US? Will the GBP equually decline? Remember there was that massive selloff in December 2006 - will there be massive buy up? Monday awaits.... oops... I see they have mentioned they have alternative controls in place to stablise the baht - what could they be....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
begsaresponse Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 Is this because Thaksin has been appointed or offered a post to be an Economic advisor to the Government minister responsible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxcrc Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 HiJust learnt with excitement the capital controls have been removed! That means the doors are open for foreign inflows. Don't want to be a speculator here, but would be interesting to know opinions of what could happen Monday? Will there be a mad rush of investors as various top Thai economists predict? What Thai resources will be target buys? what are the positives and the negatives? And any Baht earners going to buy up in the US? Will the GBP equually decline? Remember there was that massive selloff in December 2006 - will there be massive buy up? Monday awaits.... well, after the news reached the market in just 6 MINUTES euro dropped from over 48 to 47.1. Look at the superrich exchange rate... very interesting... they spread the difference between buy and sell sharply....I think because they want protect themselves against possible sharp fluctution which could happen in few mintes like Friday. If they keep the buy/sell difference at only 10 cents of $, they can incurr in a risk to lose lots of money if they sell too cheap and they they may need to buy more expensive than that price. So now the difference is over 50 cents and almost 1 baht for the euro. They are protecting against possible strong fluctuations in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 so what do you think'll happen next??? it happened already. Baht stronger vs. any currency you can think of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxcrc Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 (edited) HiJust learnt with excitement the capital controls have been removed! That means the doors are open for foreign inflows. Don't want to be a speculator here, but would be interesting to know opinions of what could happen Monday? Will there be a mad rush of investors as various top Thai economists predict? What Thai resources will be target buys? what are the positives and the negatives? And any Baht earners going to buy up in the US? Will the GBP equually decline? Remember there was that massive selloff in December 2006 - will there be massive buy up? Monday awaits.... oops... I see they have mentioned they have alternative controls in place to stablise the baht - what could they be....? stabilize ? If they call it currency under control a currency which gains more than any other on the planet , how much would it be without any control ? 20 for 1 $ and 33 for 1 $ ? Alternative controls may be buying dollars massively just like China and Japan. Or putting money on the market, but this would fuel inflation and this is not a good idea with the oil prices galopping . I don t believe Thai govt. wants to adopt keynesian policies, maybe they will try to act to form consensus in order to buy dollars. It seems in the Philippines they are trying to do that. You see that after peso reached 40.5-40.6, it stopped appreciating, despite the dollar terrible perormance in the past 3-4 days. Filipinos working abroad ,specially in USA and in the Arab countries which have thier currencies pegged to the $, are desperate now, because their remittances are not enough to feed their huge families in the Philippines. I am afraid all these so-called adjustments are creating other big imbalances. Economies are always umbalanced, either in a way or in the other, since the market is in the hands of damned speculators, we will just experience swifting from one imbalance to other in the other way, but "perfect adjustments" will never be reached. Just look at the Brazlian real vs. Argentina peso. Peso was terribly overestimated at 1:1 with $ (it means peso was stronger than euro), now with the peso at 3.15 for $ and about 5 for 1 euro and almost 2 pesos for 1 real (!!), Argentina is a bargain even for the poorest brazilian living in the slums. Poorest brazilian cannot eat in Brazil but they can spree in expensive restaurants of Buenos Aires. So where is the adjustment ??? We swicthed from one distortion to another one even worse. I am afraid that today when we say "it is the market" ,we are just using a synonimous of "it is just speculation". Edited February 29, 2008 by maxcrc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britmaveric Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 will weaken exports - not going to be pretty for thai industries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tingtong Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 to look the sunny side, my thai house worth more in $ terms day-by-day. the only question how to pay the growing bills off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNGLIFE Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 Good for me since I planned to start a venture in LOS later this year. Bad for the Thais who will be losing manufacturing and export jobs and the related trickle-down affects on the economy - assuming of course the increased investment is not greater than the business lost. Looks like BoT is optimistic that foreign investment will pour into the economy. Likening the move to a nightclub, they have effectively lifted the cover-charge from the front door. However, the drinks inside are still more expensive than the other clubs in the area. They seem to want to compete on something other than price. Thai quality perhaps? <giggle> Perhaps Thaksin and foreign friends want to bring a few baht in to reward (invest in) supporters until they release his domestic money boxes. Knowing his history of Thailand's #1 investment cheerleader, it would make sense. He's been in the mix abroad surely pumping up Thailand to the rich and connected as THE place to invest after his return... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasabi Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 I just bought TTF up 4% today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxcrc Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 Likening the move to a nightclub, they have effectively lifted the cover-charge from the front door. However, the drinks inside are still more expensive than the other clubs in the area. They seem to want to compete on something other than price. Thai quality perhaps? <giggle> Good point. What value added products have Thailand to justify such stronger currency ? There are but not enough. Thailand is not Korea. It definitely cannot compete with China with low prices, but it is thousands miles away to compete with high standard high tech heavy industry products like in Korea and I don t think either Thailand can rival Singapore or Hong Kong like financial hub. What I am seeing in Thailand is LOTS of money coming from rich Arabs, rich Chinese,Singaporeans,..., rich Indians and thousands of Russians with money of doubtful procedence.(it is a matter of say, it is clear where their money come from). Special cards for millionaire, golf courtyards, stunning resorts, high class restaurants, hotels and nightclubs,hospitals which looks like 5 stars hotels,high class medical treatments, esthetic surgery,..... It seems this country is becoming a place for the millionaire with clean or dirty money (whatever), to spree,relax,shop and cure themselves. This is the only sector I can see really booming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knightsbridge Posted February 29, 2008 Author Share Posted February 29, 2008 What about the most active value stocks on the SET 50? Seems a lot of trade in the energy and bank/ finance sectors the last few weeks - proabably by foreigners. Will they be valuable enough to boom from Monday? Do you think there will be big speculative trade next week? Some good profits for long term traders to reinvest later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knightsbridge Posted February 29, 2008 Author Share Posted February 29, 2008 I just bought TTF up 4% today. what's TTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasabi Posted March 1, 2008 Share Posted March 1, 2008 I just bought TTF up 4% today. what's TTF? http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ttf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irene Posted March 1, 2008 Share Posted March 1, 2008 Just to share the reactions. A few brokers have been recommending SPF (samui airport) and CPNRF for a few weeks already in anticipation of the revocation of the 30% order. Liquidity is poor for SPF but slightly better for CPNRF. I have been collecting the two for a few months now with not much volume. This news has a direct impact on all property fund on the Exchange because previously foreigners are subject to this imposition if they buy the units of property fund. I expect liquidity could jump up for CPNRF but not much for SPF. There will be manipulative actions. The other sector that has an indirect benefit is the property companies, such as LPN, LH and QH since their sales especially on condos from foreigners could be spurred up by this news. All they need is another pep-up of the government being liberal on Foreign Business Law (there is no indication yet because the Minister just recovers from his collapse). Other than that, the general atmosphere should be euphoric at the beginning but likely to be dampened by regional exchange indexes which are sure to fall heftily on Monday's early openings because of 3% drop of Dow Jones index on Friday. It is this area that no one can be certain whether the SET punters would care that much or the excitement could override that bad news from US. I tend to think of the latter because I expect foreigners will come in in drove in the afternoon. Why? Because of the baht would strengthen further at least by another Baht 1 which is a trend that foreign investors could gain from exchange upon disposal. With that, I will collect all the companies of PTT group if the prices do not shoot up by more than two spreads. I am not an expert but the above is something that I am thinking aloud just to see others' reactions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tingtong Posted March 1, 2008 Share Posted March 1, 2008 interestingly I collected the same prolerty funds Even if prices dont move, I am happy with the 8-10% dividend. however, if you are right and prices shoot up, meaning that div. falls under 7%, I am happy to sell. Euphoria doesnt last long... Like it was with UOBAPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knightsbridge Posted March 1, 2008 Author Share Posted March 1, 2008 I calculated the average decrease of my current stocks as on 19th December 2006 - can't say whether this is the true investor method of doing things- and it was a total average of 10% negative. I feel my stock holding is broadly representative of all industries. So I would think, or Monday and better experienced investors would otherwise tell me, there could be a 10 - 15 % increase in stock. great if you have millions of B tied up on the set .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knightsbridge Posted March 1, 2008 Author Share Posted March 1, 2008 Well, I'd agree that there would be a flurry of excitement this coming week on the stockmarket. I think certain value stocks will go up 10-30%, but then the capital gain will fall back and the true gain will be 5% on many stocks. Which is a very sweet thing for long term investors. The big risk would be to sell and miss out on unexpected lows, surprising flurries and further future increases. Hold, I say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knightsbridge Posted March 1, 2008 Author Share Posted March 1, 2008 I just bought TTF up 4% today. what's TTF? http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ttf Ah it's on US markets! Thanks for that... Just out of interest can you trade via yahoofinance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dr_Pat_Pong Posted March 1, 2008 Share Posted March 1, 2008 Is this because Thaksin has been appointed or offered a post to be an Economic advisor to the Government minister responsible? I thought Toxin had promised to stay out of politics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crushdepth Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 Will there be a mad rush of investors as various top Thai economists predict? What Thai resources will be target buys? what are the positives and the negatives? There was certainly a mad rush when they introduced them - out!! I don't think removing the capital controls will do much to boost anyone's confidence in the reliability of the Thai government. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chang_paarp Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 Is this because Thaksin has been appointed or offered a post to be an Economic advisor to the Government minister responsible? I thought Toxin had promised to stay out of politics. Following this announcement and the appointment of various heads of department to less strenuous activities Tarissa sure did a quick about face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasabi Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 I just bought TTF up 4% today. what's TTF? http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ttf Ah it's on US markets! Thanks for that... Just out of interest can you trade via yahoofinance? I personally use Ameritrade. I also think ILF is a great regional ETF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knightsbridge Posted March 2, 2008 Author Share Posted March 2, 2008 Some of you say Thailand is not as attractive as say Korea, Singapore, HK and so the 30% removal will not bring in enough interest. Quite possible due to the Thai governement's past interference (ie Asian crash 1996, 30% capital imposition December 2006, and then all the recent coup hoo-ha). Outsiders would think a little harder to invest in an unrealiable-looking country. But after staying here for a while I can see stability and propsperity amongst the all unusual happenings - economics just gets it right amidst the seemingly Thai chaos.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 so what do you think'll happen next???it happened already. Baht stronger vs. any currency you can think of. Interesting that this morning OANDA (offshore) shows 62.57, a near three baht weakening over the weekend, I would have expected the reverse to happen - Bangkok Bank is quoting 61.97 and XE at 59. something. It doesn't make a lot of sense currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knightsbridge Posted March 3, 2008 Author Share Posted March 3, 2008 Yes, something to to do with the Jap stock market selling off its export companies due to the high Dollar - a real shivers-sender around the world and an unfortunate surprise for the morning.... and probably affecting the afternoon..... sigh .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott123 Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 (edited) I am new to Thailand. If I wire in dollars to speculate baht currency, will there be any trouble once I decide to sell all my baht and wire equevilant dollars back to U.S.? how much do Thai banks charge for wiring fees? Edited March 3, 2008 by Scott123 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trader1 Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 so what do you think'll happen next???it happened already. Baht stronger vs. any currency you can think of. Compared to what time frame? Even in the last 12 months teh NZD and AUd have both strenghted against the baht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 so what do you think'll happen next???it happened already. Baht stronger vs. any currency you can think of. Interesting that this morning OANDA (offshore) shows 62.57, a near three baht weakening over the weekend, I would have expected the reverse to happen - Bangkok Bank is quoting 61.97 and XE at 59. something. It doesn't make a lot of sense currently. today Baht is even weaker against a weaker Dollar. on friday THB/USD 31.30, today 31.45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britmaveric Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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