Gloomy Days Ahead For Asia's Housing Markets

[donx]

Sir, you are not a clone of the discredited Quiksilva? No?

No, I am not. Read my posts and you will see that I live in Maryland. Quiksilva lives in Thailand. I am a software engineer and he is in commercial real estate.

Sometimes your posts are very good. Other times, like this one, they are uncalled for. I am trying to have a serious discourse with you, but when pressed for more information you revert to personal attacks. That is not a very good way to reinforce your points.

I agree that there were several abandoned buildings, but you seem to make a claim that there still are several abandoned buildings. I agree that there are some abandoned buildings, but I haven't seen any reason to believe that there are several abandoned buildings.

As sophmoric as bingobongo is, at least he provides links to articles. His charts and diagrams are ridiculous if not out right hilarious.

[think_too_mut]

All I am asking for is where you got such an exact figure of 384 abandoned buildings from.

From a little bird.

Ask her, u may get the same answer.

Anyone who wanted to know could get that same figure. Go, search.

Qiiksilva, have you become so desperate to use this clone?

[Heng]

I don't think think_too_mut is claiming there are still 384 empty buildings. He doesn't even live here, right? I think his point was that there were that many empty buildings.

[donx]

I don't think think_too_mut is claiming there are still 384 empty buildings. He doesn't even live here, right? I think his point was that there were that many empty buildings.

I know that he isn't claiming that there are still 384 empty buildings. He is, however, claiming that many of them are still empty. I agree that there were several empty buildings - whether there were 384 or not I don't know. What I don't agree with is his claim that many of them are still empty. I agree that some of them are empty. What I am interested in knowing is how many of those 384 empty buildings from 1998 are still empty. My understanding of the situation is that only a few remain abandoned and empty. I could be wrong and that is why I'm asking think_too_mut if he knows how many remain empty to this day.

As far as I can tell, most of them have been restarted or even completed. I stayed in one of these abandoned buildings. It is the Millennium Hilton Bangkok hotel.

[Heng]

I'd probably go with "most" or at least "many" as well for that one, for buildings that are being revived or re-developed into something else.

[donx]

For those here who are as seriously interested in the issue regarding the abandoned buildings from the 1997 financial crisis, I have found the following article that states that less than 30% of those buildings remain abandoned as of September 24, 2007 when the article was published.

http://www.property-report.com/apr_op_arch...4&date=7924

Even though that number is significantly less than half of them, assuming there were some 384 buildings, this means that there could still be as many as 115 of these ghost towers. I find that number to be disturbingly high. The fact that so many years have past and that there could be well over 100 of these buildings remaining is quite amazing to me. I would have guessed the number to be much less, something less than 50.

[backflip]

"Now we have property values diminishig to zero."

Now we have IQs diminishing to zero.

"384"

Reminds me of Joe McCarthy - trying to impress on anyone who would listen - providing the number of communists working in the US State Department. The number would change, as his mood, but he could never provide the source of his number(s). Regardless, 384 abandoned buildings 10 years ago. So what?

[pkrv]

Sir, you are not a clone of the discredited Quiksilva? No?

No, I am not. Read my posts and you will see that I live in Maryland. Quiksilva lives in Thailand. I am a software engineer and he is in commercial real estate.

Sometimes your posts are very good. Other times, like this one, they are uncalled for. I am trying to have a serious discourse with you, but when pressed for more information you revert to personal attacks. That is not a very good way to reinforce your points.

I agree that there were several abandoned buildings, but you seem to make a claim that there still are several abandoned buildings. I agree that there are some abandoned buildings, but I haven't seen any reason to believe that there are several abandoned buildings.

As sophmoric as bingobongo is, at least he provides links to articles. His charts and diagrams are ridiculous if not out right hilarious.

donx - yes think_too_mut does have his ups and downs, I have seen some of his posts before they were deleted. However yes there are a number of skeleton buildings and I note that there have been some excellent posts on this subject in the past.

Things like if the reinforcing is clad in concrete the building is salvageable - Source a market expert. The skeleton building next to 'The Lakes' is now completed - Source the person who actually owns property at The Lakes. And of course countless others.

If anyone has read these threads over time they would have seen this stuff. Let me throw in an observation - Yes there is an eyesore on the landscape in one of think_too_mut's photos, it can be seen from the spar side of The Oriental. Oddly I was waiting for the boat when I saw husband with his wife and son discussing the building, quite clearly discussing future plans. I do not speak Thai, but I can sense body language. Does this count as a market mover?

Edited May 26, 2008 by pkrv

[shochu]

if these structures were using the right mixture of water, concrete (meaning the driver did not add any extra water while he took an extended lunch break or nap) and other ingredients for the climate, and they were using the right rebar (which I highly doubt back then), at least not tested to withstand the elements exposed for many years.

from my knowledge of structures, considering the climate in LOS - I would not buy into a structure that had been sitting exposed to the elements for many years - PERIOD

AND yes there are still many abandoned buildings due to many reasons - some being the obvious as they are not salvageable - but also because of rights issues. the scary thing which will play out in the future is - how many of the salvaged buildings were based on calculated risks?

[bingobongo]

pkrv, is this more LOS magic or a painful denial of what is happening?

it is ok to dream pkrv, but just make sure you know when it is time to wakeup

New streets protests in Thailand hurt stability

Fresh street protests in Thailand between supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his opponents could drag the army back into the forefront of politics and scare off foreign investors, analysts said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinanci...K17440920080526

Edited May 26, 2008 by bingobongo

[pkrv]

pkrv, is this more LOS magic or a painful denial of what is happening?

it is ok to dream pkrv, but just make sure you know when it is time to wakeup

New streets protests in Thailand hurt stability

Fresh street protests in Thailand between supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his opponents could drag the army back into the forefront of politics and scare off foreign investors, analysts said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinanci...K17440920080526

hi Bingobongo - flattered - donx has been trying to get in touch - perhaps you could respond? I think he is fretting. Look I am not made of money full stop. That is why Thailand is on my agenda. As a child I was carted around, Kenya, Cyprus, Aden, Gibraltar, Hong Kong, Gibraltar, Germany, these issues are not of significance to me. I understand (contracting edges of) Empire bred BACKBONE. What ho and all that. Good grief what are you doing in Thailand, if you are spineless?

[quiksilva]

Think-too-mut, I speak for myself.

Your recent posts seem to be more slanted to get a rise out of me, than they are to actually discredit the points I have made. (What is the definition of trolling?) I'm not here for a pointless internet fight, so I will not respond to those posts other than to say that they really say more about you, than me.

On the topic of the many so called 'ghost buildings'. Of course there are still some developers suffering from extended hangovers from 1997 and there are some high profile ones amongst these, but do some digging and you will learn that most projects have in fact restructured their loan agreements with their creditors. Once this is done they are typically either sold, and completed (or completed by the original owner).

Given the increase in construction costs, it is still cheaper to repair and make good even when they have engaged outrageously expensive detailed structural surveys and sophisticated engineering consultations from independent advisors (who happen to be accountable for their advice).

Many of these properties are owned, operated or occupied by some the most prominent companies in Thailand and indeed the world. This is not idle chatter, consider who are the owners, tenants and management companies of the following revived 'ghosts', to name but a few:-

The Millennium Hilton

State Tower

Central World Tower

Exchange Tower

Q House Lumpini

Jamjuree Square

Cyberworld Towers

Times Square (Sukhumvit Soi 12, This office building and retail plaza was, unfinished and exposed to the elements for 7 years, yet there it is)

The Lakes

Centrepoint Sawasdi (Sukhumvit 31)

Does this mean that all ghosts can be repaired, and completed: Of course not, this is the real world, and the real world is not that black and white. Some are good, some are bad. However, in this case a great deal of the so called 'ghosts' have been completed and have been doing very nicely ever since.

These ghosts were mostly caused by foreign loans that doubled in liability during the Baht crisis. The difference today is that most project financing is undertaken locally. ALOT of people got burnt very badly last time and the Thais dont forget those lessons. But before the bulls rush in and say everything will be rosy though we must also remember that there will always be some projects that will fail, and some old ghosts will hang around for a long time to come (as they have very complex deep seated problems that stem not only from exposure to the elements, but from complicated debt structures with large amounts of creditors (foreign and local) and ongoing legal disputes, which can take an age to settle.

Just as surely as the sun sets some people will never listen and thus will never learn from the mistakes of others, and they will fail in life and business. However, the 1997 experience has certainly made the market a lot more mature today than it was before.

Now, I'm keen to continue this discussion on this topic and will happily listen to alternative points of view, but please lets keep the discussion civil, and leave the insults for the playground.

Edited May 27, 2008 by quiksilva

[Ray1167]

I've enjoyed reading all the comments on this particular thread. Just one thing ......

bingo bongo - i strongly believe you also post messages as "koko the monkey" on this forum ( link attached ) .

http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...1279&st=350

One that is exclusively pessimistic about global house prices .

And looks very much like this forum , which of course may just be a coincidence .

Good reading .

[raybingham]

I've enjoyed reading all the comments on this particular thread. Just one thing ......

bingo bongo - i strongly believe you also post messages as "koko the monkey" on this forum ( link attached ) .

http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...1279&st=350

One that is exclusively pessimistic about global house prices .

And looks very much like this forum , which of course may just be a coincidence .

Good reading .

OOOOOOOOOH !

De'ja vue

[bingobongo]

lets see, inflation rampant, interest rates about to rise, and gvt instability, makes it a fantastic place to invest? i think not

how long does it take to warm up a military tank?

Thai Chamber, Trade chair warns of sinking investment prospects

BANGKOK: -- Investor confidence and subsequent foreign investment in Thailand could be eroded if the current political turmoil continues and the ongoing rally demanding that the coalition government of Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej scrap its plan to rewrite the constitution turns into violence, a senior Thai executive said Tuesday.

Pramon Suthiwong, chairman of both the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Board of Trade of Thailand, said investment confidence would not be greatly impacted if the demonstration demanding the government to halt its plan to rewrite the charter ends soon without bloodshed.

Now foreign investors are worried about political strife in Thailand and have delayed a committing a considerable amount of investment in this country, Mr. Pramon said.

Activists of the People's Alliance for Democracy held their protest for the third day Tuesday near the United Nations ESCAP (Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific) building on Rajadamnoen Avenue.

Pro-government demonstrators have camped nearby and both sides were locked in scuffles on Sunday in which about 20 protesters from both sides were injured.

On Monday, Mr. Samak said he was told by three Thai envoys stationed abroad that the present political troubles in Thailand would deter foreigners from investing in the kingdom.

Touching on Thai economic growth projections for 2008, Mr. Pramon said the Thai Chamber of Commerce had forecast since the beginning of this year that growth would not be less than 5 per cent but the economy in general could be affected due to volatility in global oil prices.

Thailand's economic growth in 2008 could fall below 5 per cent if world oil prices continue to increase like now and the government should urgently find measures to stimulate the economy to grow not less than 5 per cent, he added.

-- TNA 2008-05-27

Edited May 28, 2008 by bingobongo

[Ray1167]

Let me see , The same day bingo bongo joined this forum , he wrote this message in : http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...1279&st=350 :

My wife has family in Thailand, but I have no intention to emmigrate to Thailand as finding work their as a "farang" would be impossible given the new visa requirements. My wife bought a condo in 2005 so I am interested in seeing how much it has fallen in value. It has taken her 18 months to find a tennant. It is located in the Thonglor section. I reside in the US.

I know where i'd rather live .

[pkrv]

Let me see , The same day bingo bongo joined this forum , he wrote this message in : http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...1279&st=350 :

My wife has family in Thailand, but I have no intention to emmigrate to Thailand as finding work their as a "farang" would be impossible given the new visa requirements. My wife bought a condo in 2005 so I am interested in seeing how much it has fallen in value. It has taken her 18 months to find a tennant. It is located in the Thonglor section. I reside in the US.

I know where i'd rather live .

Ray1167 - I think you make a very good point here. After a lifetime of work (it seems like longer) it becomes a question of living life as you wish it to be. For me I have had enough of the daily commute and dealing with <deleted> who are singularly ill equipped 'to push out the envelope', yet desire what others have, and as such desire 'to push out the envelope'. The term utter boredom, with these failures, who drag down companies with their 'strategies' pales into insignificance with their negative achievements, which are only punished when the company finally goes bust.

We are going to do this our way - I have just been advised that the few remaining units (Thai quota only) at The Park are now on the market for 60 to 65% more than we paid. As far as I am concerned I think I know what I am doing, have got this one right, and am very happy with my choices so far.

If you are not happy with Thailand, the answer is extraordinarily simple; move on, it is a big world. I for one will be staying.

Edited May 28, 2008 by pkrv

[bingobongo]

lol, amateur hour appears to be in full effect...........anyway

interest rates will rise.........and the genius of overbuilding continues

Thailand's Political Tensions Increase

A sudden rise in inflation driven by soaring food and fuel prices is adding to the political tension, as is an annual military reshuffle expected in September which has driven a wedge between Thailand's armed forces and civilian politicians in the past.

Many Thais are already struggling with an inflationary spike which has affected economies around the world.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1211974631...=googlenews_wsj

[pkrv]

lol, amateur hour appears to be in full effect...........anyway

interest rates will rise.........and the genius of overbuilding continues

Thailand's Political Tensions Increase

A sudden rise in inflation driven by soaring food and fuel prices is adding to the political tension, as is an annual military reshuffle expected in September which has driven a wedge between Thailand's armed forces and civilian politicians in the past.

Many Thais are already struggling with an inflationary spike which has affected economies around the world.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1211974631...=googlenews_wsj

Weren't flowers put on the tanks and didn't tourists flock to the streets totally unafraid, to take pictures of the exciting events last time? I bet it boosted tourism. Bingo my school run in Aden consisted of a light tank, heavily armoured school bus (that contained the school) complete with sandbags and machine gun nest on the roof and armed soldier as conductor, followed by an armoured personnel carrier. As far as I was concerned that was how all kids travelled to school (I didn't know any better). Bingo as a word of advice I think you need to get out more.

<Edit - Oh I forgot bingo a 65% increase means 9.5m THB - and guess what it doesn't mean anything. I have to live somewhere and that is what I truly care about, somewhere to be happy, try it some time /end edit>

Edited May 28, 2008 by pkrv

[backflip]

"Many Thais are already struggling with an inflationary spike which has affected economies around the world."

Wow, I had no idea. Thanks for the info!

[quiksilva]

Quiz time

Which country:

- is the #1 producer of rubber and hard disk drives?

- ranks #11 as the most attractive economies for the location of FDI 2007-2009?

- is #14th largest producer of automotives?

- Ranks #15 in the World Bank Ease of Doing Business 2008?

- is the 19th largest economy by purchasing power?

- has the 20th largest manufacturing output worldwide?

[pkrv]

Quiz time

Which country:

- is the #1 producer of rubber and hard disk drives?

- ranks #11 as the most attractive economies for the location of FDI 2007-2009?

- is #14th largest producer of automotives?

- Ranks #15 in the World Bank Ease of Doing Business 2008?

- is the 19th largest economy by purchasing power?

- has the 20th largest manufacturing output worldwide?

I suspect if you had added in tourism and rice production as questions it would have given the answer away? Very Very interesting indeed.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

It seems to me that the post that are the most critical about Thailand are from posters who don't even live in LOS and don't plan to. Now you kind of wonder why that would be? Could it be that they can't afford to live here and are jealous of those who do, and hope there post will influence others not to?

If you don't live here and don't want to be here why even belong to TV?

[bingobongo]

now do you think this be in the glossy pullout proclaiming the "hi-so" lifestyle? i think not

Thai general hints at coup over alleged royal insult

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hVjWH4t...NcT02gD90V8NAG1

[pkrv]

It seems to me that the post that are the most critical about Thailand are from posters who don't even live in LOS and don't plan to. Now you kind of wonder why that would be? Could it be that they can't afford to live here and are jealous of those who do, and hope there post will influence others not to?

If you don't live here and don't want to be here why even belong to TV?

SNAP

[bingobongo]

with oil and commodities prices rising up as they have, instead of getting richer, consumers are paying out more and more of their incomes to fill their tanks and feed their families.

so in terms of spending power, they are getting poorer. their ability to buy expensive housing (aka overpriced/oversupplied condo) is diminishing, not increasing

interest rates will rise and housing values/equity/inflation will fall no matter what somchai the builder says

Edited May 29, 2008 by bingobongo

[backflip]

Yet Thailand survives, much to your dismay.

[bingobongo]

keep trying backflip keep trying, vietnam banking system is on verge of collapse due to rampant inflation and once vietnam circles the bowl, the rest of asia will take it on the chin

inflation is rampant in LOS as well, and interest rates will rise, do not let your frustration pollute your thinking

dont hate me backflip because i am right, hate yourself because you are wrong

[palm]

keep trying backflip keep trying, vietnam banking system is on verge of collapse due to rampant inflation and once vietnam circles the bowl, the rest of asia will take it on the chin

inflation is rampant in LOS as well, and interest rates will rise, do not let your frustration pollute your thinking

dont hate me backflip because i am right, hate yourself because you are wrong

lol, more advice from the person who was saying all the 'smart money' was going to Vietnam.

How soon we forget.

[palm]

I've enjoyed reading all the comments on this particular thread. Just one thing ......

bingo bongo - i strongly believe you also post messages as "koko the monkey" on this forum ( link attached ) .

http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...1279&st=350

One that is exclusively pessimistic about global house prices .

And looks very much like this forum , which of course may just be a coincidence .

Good reading .

Great detective work! It's now easy to see why he's so bitter. An expat who clearly got his fingers badly burnt in Thailand. Maybe we can ask Thaivisa to set up a collection of unwanted clothes or food stamps or something? At the next ThaiVisa gathering, maybe we could organise a raffle?