Enormous Rise In Prices, Am I Just Dreaming?

[MART]

Just had a look at airfares for 2009, I can't believe what I found. Let me give you 3 examples for an economy one-month return ticket BKK-Berlin-BKK in march-april:

- Qatar: 1000€, used to cost around 600-700€ in 2007-2008, that's a 45-65% price increase

- Air Berlin: 900€, used to cost 600€, that's a 50% price increase

- Thai Airways: 1700€, used to cost 700-800€, that's a freckin' 110-145% price increase!!!!! Even British Airways and Air France are cheaper now! I guess I can throw away my Royal Orchid card...

OH MY GOD!

Gave may-june a try and it is not cheaper! I'm afraid business is going to be quiet for Thai tourism next year...

[lamai04]

Just had a look at airfares for 2009, I can't believe what I found. Let me give you 3 examples for an economy one-month return ticket BKK-Berlin-BKK in march-april:

- Qatar: 1000€, used to cost around 600-700€ in 2007-2008, that's a 45-65% price increase

- Air Berlin: 900€, used to cost 600€, that's a 50% price increase

I'm afraid business is going to be quiet for Thai tourism next year...

Yeah, the normal tax are around 50E, but for this winter Lufthansa wants 330E tax+fuel surchange and KLM 440E

Every tourism destination far away will suffer, but the 2 Samui resort I asked have increased december price from 1600b to 2400b, maybe there is something that i don't understand......

[LaoPo]

Just had a look at airfares for 2009, I can't believe what I found. Let me give you 3 examples for an economy one-month return ticket BKK-Berlin-BKK in march-april:

- Qatar: 1000€, used to cost around 600-700€ in 2007-2008, that's a 45-65% price increase

- Air Berlin: 900€, used to cost 600€, that's a 50% price increase

I'm afraid business is going to be quiet for Thai tourism next year...

Yeah, the normal tax are around 50E, but for this winter Lufthansa wants 330E tax+fuel surchange and KLM 440E

Every tourism destination far away will suffer, but the 2 Samui resort I asked have increased december price from 1600b to 2400b, maybe there is something that i don't understand......

..well...YOU understand but does the management of those premises understand that they're killing the goose with the golden eggs....? I suppose they don't realize what's going on in the world...

An increase of +50% .............. :D

LaoPo

[chiang mai]

Increasing prices in Thailand is a contagious thing, one person does it and everyone follows. Interesting that in all my years here I have never seen prices decline once they have been increased - I think it's a face thing.

[rak sa_ngop]

Increasing prices in Thailand is a contagious thing, one person does it and everyone follows. Interesting that in all my years here I have never seen prices decline once they have been increased - I think it's a face thing.

Not quite true. Hotel prices do come down in low seasons.

[tartempion]

Indeed,

Used to pay 20 to 25k in the early 2000's

May 2008 I paid 29.950B to Brussels on Ethihad,

Sept 2008 34.950B

And checking May 2009 42.560B economy, 94.450B business

Business used to be around 300% from eco, now closer to 200%, might consider flying business next year

[lomatopo]

It may be too fine a point but base fares haven't been increased for the most part. Airlines have chosen to add Fuel Surcharges (YQ) to supplement their top-line revenue, and cover their increased fuel costs, which does of course lead to higher "all-in" or total ticket prices. Fuel surcharges on direct, non-stop service between BKK and LHR are in the $400 range (round-trip, TG/BA/QF). Many airlines offer bulk discounts, especially to large corporations. The discounts are applied against the base fare per existing contracts and not to the fuel surcharge, hence the reason for having this as a separate line item and not adding it in to, and thereby increasing, the base fare.

With crude oil prices retreating somewhat, down below $118/barrel (from a recent high of $145+) it will be interesting to see if these fuel surcharges are rolled back. A lot of capacity (airline seats) has been cut from the system with route reductions/cuts, aircraft idling and even bankruptcy/closure, so this affects the supply side and maybe not a huge roll-back in fuel surcharges until we get closer to $80/barrel?

[NotNew2You]

Will not affect inbound monger numbers but the long-haul family markets will be much slower next year.

In any case, fine with me...more specials and discounts at stores and restos for us who live in LOS

[ovenman]

In any case, fine with me...more specials and discounts at stores and restos for us who live in LOS

Except that less customers/business usually translates to higher prices in Thailand.

[ZZZ]

With crude oil prices retreating somewhat, down below $118/barrel (from a recent high of $145+) it will be interesting to see if these fuel surcharges are rolled back. A lot of capacity (airline seats) has been cut from the system with route reductions/cuts, aircraft idling and even bankruptcy/closure, so this affects the supply side and maybe not a huge roll-back in fuel surcharges until we get closer to $80/barrel?

As many airlines hedge the cost of future fuel prices there may have been a few that panicked when there was talk about $200 oil prices and locked in the future price when it peaked around $130-$140. In that case they will be stuck with this price and will not be able to do anything if the price of oil drops. This will keep the ticket prices up, it may also break a few airlines which will mean less competition and higher prices.

[lomatopo]

As many airlines hedge the cost of future fuel prices there may have been a few that panicked when there was talk about $200 oil prices and locked in the future price when it peaked around $130-$140. In that case they will be stuck with this price and will not be able to do anything if the price of oil drops. This will keep the ticket prices up, it may also break a few airlines which will mean less competition and higher prices.

Agreed in principle but not that many airlines hedge. I am pretty sure TG does not currently hedge. LH and WN have won high praise for their hedging, I think LH makes more money from their 15 person hedging group than their 75,000+ airline/catering/maintenance employee group. "Tell me again why we're running an airline?" But yes, some may get stuck, be forced to match potentially lower fuel surcharges and then suffer big losses.

[chiang mai]

Increasing prices in Thailand is a contagious thing, one person does it and everyone follows. Interesting that in all my years here I have never seen prices decline once they have been increased - I think it's a face thing.

Not quite true. Hotel prices do come down in low seasons.

The reference was to year on year increases and not seasonal adjustments.

[britmaveric]

In any case, fine with me...more specials and discounts at stores and restos for us who live in LOS

Except that less customers/business usually translates to higher prices in Thailand.

If this was the case then low season prices wouldnt be so much cheaper.

[philstone]

Just had a look at airfares for 2009, I can't believe what I found. Let me give you 3 examples for an economy one-month return ticket BKK-Berlin-BKK in march-april:

- Qatar: 1000€, used to cost around 600-700€ in 2007-2008, that's a 45-65% price increase

- Air Berlin: 900€, used to cost 600€, that's a 50% price increase

I'm afraid business is going to be quiet for Thai tourism next year...

Yeah, the normal tax are around 50E, but for this winter Lufthansa wants 330E tax+fuel surchange and KLM 440E

Every tourism destination far away will suffer, but the 2 Samui resort I asked have increased december price from 1600b to 2400b, maybe there is something that i don't understand......

..well...YOU understand but does the management of those premises understand that they're killing the goose with the golden eggs....? I suppose they don't realize what's going on in the world...

An increase of +50% ..............

LaoPo

Stop the crying everyone claims they made so much selling the dollar short.

What is a little raise if Air Fare to so many who made so much in the stock marker and the Real Estate market.

Also Many Expats have rich Thai wives for very Ho So families.

And for got to add the important well paing jobs they have.

As for me I am a poor person you don't see be crying about my business class ticket.

[Mali1964]

Interesting that in all my years here I have never seen prices decline once they have been increased - I think it's a face thing

Fuel price drops are there for all to see

[dumball]

Just had a look at airfares for 2009, I can't believe what I found. Let me give you 3 examples for an economy one-month return ticket BKK-Berlin-BKK in march-april:

- Qatar: 1000€, used to cost around 600-700€ in 2007-2008, that's a 45-65% price increase

- Air Berlin: 900€, used to cost 600€, that's a 50% price increase

I'm afraid business is going to be quiet for Thai tourism next year...

Yeah, the normal tax are around 50E, but for this winter Lufthansa wants 330E tax+fuel surchange and KLM 440E

Every tourism destination far away will suffer, but the 2 Samui resort I asked have increased december price from 1600b to 2400b, maybe there is something that i don't understand......

..well...YOU understand but does the management of those premises understand that they're killing the goose with the golden eggs....? I suppose they don't realize what's going on in the world...

An increase of +50% ..............

LaoPo

Stop the crying everyone claims they made so much selling the dollar short.

What is a little raise if Air Fare to so many who made so much in the stock marker and the Real Estate market.

Also Many Expats have rich Thai wives for very Ho So families.

And for got to add the important well paing jobs they have.

As for me I am a poor person you don't see be crying about my business class ticket.

Flew Phnom Penh to BKK on Bankok air a few weeks ago , fare was 3,500 Baht , the return trip 2 weeks later was 7,000 Baht after checking with several agents some as high as 7,900 Baht . I had to cough up the extra to return to Phnom Penh as my arms were too tired to transport myself , that is a 100% increase in just 2 weeks , so what is the gripe about 50% over 1 year ?

[londonthai]

the airfare in a low season drops a few months before the date - if you are trying to buy 10 months in advance you would be wasting your money.

for the best fares in march-april try to buy in january/february, when the fares are the lowest

[Sophon]

the airfare in a low season drops a few months before the date - if you are trying to buy 10 months in advance you would be wasting your money.

for the best fares in march-april try to buy in january/february, when the fares are the lowest

That may be true for some routes but definitely not for all. I normally buy my tickets (CPH - BKK) 8-10 months in advance, because I get by far the best fare that way. If I wait until two months before traveling the prices are almost always 30-50% higher (and in high season often double). But that route is always completely sold out (at least the direct flights). The only time I have ever seen an empty seat when travelling to or from BKK was during the SARS outbreak when I went via Singapore.

However, I do believe things might be a little different now. Because of the uncertainty about the future oil prices, I think the airlines will be careful about selling cheap tickets too far in the future.

Sophon

[wileycoyote]

Me too,I am going to start planning now

[MaiChai]

I have been flying back and forth BKK Europe for about 13 years mostly with Thai Air or other Star Alliance carriers, and this year I returned to Europe with BA/Quantas because it was considerably cheaper. What I see in Europe is that people are still flying but mainly short haul. Thus I would say Thailands tourism from Europe/America will be severely affected, but from Asia and the Middle East, no change.

Thus those that make money from the foreigner will just get used to the change in clientele So is this the end of the Thai love affair with the farang? Monied Arabs/Koreans/Japanese become more appealing?

Edited August 16, 2008 by MaiChai

[think_too_mut]

Thus I would say Thailands tourism from Europe/America will be severely affected, but from Asia and the Middle East, no change.

You think that Asians love to see their airfares doubling over 1 year?

In 2007, price for NRT-BKK was what is today just starting point.

What is today fuel surcharge is more than last year's total price on cheapest airlines (United, Biman Bangladesh, North West, Air India).

They were charging 380$ for whole lot.

Yesterday's example:

Airfare (Detail):

AIR TICKET(OVERSEAS) JAL 67,000 X 1 67,000YEN (~670US$)

INTL AIRPORT TAX TAX 2,340 X 1 2,340YEN

FUEL SURCHARGE 40,600 X 1 40,600YEN

AIRPORT FACILITY CHARGE CHUBU 2,500 X 1 2,500YEN

Total Due 112,440YEN (~1120US$)

You see? Instead of 670$ it is now 1120$. And what made you say that won't affect tourism from Asia?

Thus those that make money from the foreigner will just get used to the change in clientele So is this the end of the Thai love affair with the farang? Monied Arabs/Koreans/Japanese become more appealing?

Of course they are. You never associate Arabs, Koreans and Japanese with drunkness, tatooes and rothweiler breeding.

Edited August 17, 2008 by think_too_mut

[McFarang]

How about this oneI work in Angola live in Thailand and my company let me sort out my Air Fares Biz Class Angola Bangkok via Paris.

Angola Paris return $8500 Paris Bangkok return $4500 twice the distance half the price as for Thai they were $5000 more expensive for the Paris Bangkok part of the trip so out the window compared to Air France pity as I am nearly on a Gold Royal Orchid card.

My sister and family from Scotland were coming over at Christmas but Air Fares are so expensive it just is not viable .

[PhilHarries]

My sister and family from Scotland were coming over at Christmas but Air Fares are so expensive it just is not viable .

Yes but don't forget Christmas always was, is and will continue to be the expensive time of year to travel particularly Europe - Tropics. Back in '05 what I could book for 400GBP for May-June would cost 1000GBP December-January, same airline same flights.

The last flight I took was Da Nang-HCMC-BKK return and the taxes and fuel surcharge came to as much as the base ticket price. What cost me $180 back in May was over $350 July/August.

[ged]

I have been flying back and forth BKK Europe for about 13 years mostly with Thai Air or other Star Alliance carriers, and this year I returned to Europe with BA/Quantas because it was considerably cheaper. What I see in Europe is that people are still flying but mainly short haul. Thus I would say Thailands tourism from Europe/America will be severely affected, but from Asia and the Middle East, no change.

Thus those that make money from the foreigner will just get used to the change in clientele So is this the end of the Thai love affair with the farang? Monied Arabs/Koreans/Japanese become more appealing?

Spot on MaiChai ,

At the end of the month I am off to Pattaya and Phuket to sit on my own and drink 2 and 3 GBP bottles of beer( I have just checked the Bangkok banks FX rates and the pound is now 59.72 thb).

I could sit on the beach with the Russians or smoke Hubbly Bubbly with the Arab tourists.

Seriously though, if the rate drops much more I may have to spend my Hols in Cambodia.

OH no ! the dollar is rising also. Ah well at least it will stop the chavs going to LOS

[torrenova]

With crude oil prices retreating somewhat, down below $118/barrel (from a recent high of $145+) it will be interesting to see if these fuel surcharges are rolled back. A lot of capacity (airline seats) has been cut from the system with route reductions/cuts, aircraft idling and even bankruptcy/closure, so this affects the supply side and maybe not a huge roll-back in fuel surcharges until we get closer to $80/barrel?

As many airlines hedge the cost of future fuel prices there may have been a few that panicked when there was talk about $200 oil prices and locked in the future price when it peaked around $130-$140. In that case they will be stuck with this price and will not be able to do anything if the price of oil drops. This will keep the ticket prices up, it may also break a few airlines which will mean less competition and higher prices.

Not so.

Firstly they are buying call options so their only loss is the premium. If the current spot plus the premium paid is less than the exercise price then the option will be out of the money and thus will not be exercised. They will then buy at spot.

Now if some airlines did buy call options then the exercise price will have been above $140 if $140 was spot in rising market. Thus, it is unlikely they will exercise their options.

Finally, as prices retrenched, it would be prudent for airlines who actually know what they are doing to reduce their forward position and sell some contracts at a loss, but recovering some of their premiums.

[robee]

Thus I would say Thailands tourism from Europe/America will be severely affected, but from Asia and the Middle East, no change.

You think that Asians love to see their airfares doubling over 1 year?

In 2007, price for NRT-BKK was what is today just starting point.

What is today fuel surcharge is more than last year's total price on cheapest airlines (United, Biman Bangladesh, North West, Air India).

They were charging 380$ for whole lot.

Yesterday's example:

Airfare (Detail):

AIR TICKET(OVERSEAS) JAL 67,000 X 1 67,000YEN (~670US$)

INTL AIRPORT TAX TAX 2,340 X 1 2,340YEN

FUEL SURCHARGE 40,600 X 1 40,600YEN

Saw the same thing with my Thai airways fix so ima fly bargain air

AIRPORT FACILITY CHARGE CHUBU 2,500 X 1 2,500YEN

Total Due 112,440YEN (~1120US$)

You see? Instead of 670$ it is now 1120$. And what made you say that won't affect tourism from Asia?

Thus those that make money from the foreigner will just get used to the change in clientele So is this the end of the Thai love affair with the farang? Monied Arabs/Koreans/Japanese become more appealing?

Of course they are. You never associate Arabs, Koreans and Japanese with drunkness, tatooes and rothweiler breeding.

[Ricardo]

But Arabs all wear long white, or for females black, flowing-robes. So how do you know that they don't have tatoos ? Indeed many Arab women seem to like those henna decorative-patterns on their hands ??

Edited September 4, 2008 by Ricardo

[Razzler1973]

Those henna marking are for festivities, such as weddings, etc. Not all Arabs wear the robes either, especially here in the UAE.

You can be pretty sure the Arab chicks dont have tattoes, it's not really 'the done thing'

[Nongwahyay]

Just had a look at airfares for 2009, I can't believe what I found. Let me give you 3 examples for an economy one-month return ticket BKK-Berlin-BKK in march-april:

- Qatar: 1000€, used to cost around 600-700€ in 2007-2008, that's a 45-65% price increase

- Air Berlin: 900€, used to cost 600€, that's a 50% price increase

- Thai Airways: 1700€, used to cost 700-800€, that's a freckin' 110-145% price increase!!!!! Even British Airways and Air France are cheaper now! I guess I can throw away my Royal Orchid card...

OH MY GOD!

Gave may-june a try and it is not cheaper! I'm afraid business is going to be quiet for Thai tourism next year...

I was searching 2 days ago myself for flights in Jan/Feb for my wife and myself from Berlin to BKK and back and was also horrified. However, I found prices of around 800 Euros or just below as of the middle of March. You can fly even cheaper if you use Aeroflot......however we used them a year ago and it was absolutely atrocious!!! I would never fly with them again and would rather pay double the price!!!! I´ll have a look later and let you know what airline it was.

[tw25rw]

I just bought a business class ticket LHR-SYD with stopovers in BKK in December for £100 more than I paid in April, so it's still possible to get reasonable prices if you choose carefully. This is on Thai, as was the previous flight.