Tat To Explain Political Unrest To Cushion Negative Impact On Tourism

[LaoPo]

And who're you gonna believe, real people or a bunch of numbers?

Maybe the Russians have, how shall I put this, a larger footprint than the statistics might lead one to believe..?

Perceptions are difficult to quantify, and even harder to dispel.

Peace

I was responding to a sentence by VegasVic that "a dozen or so couples-families (mostly Swedish, Danes and Brits)" claimed that the (280,000/2007 and 190,000/2006) Russians had ruined the Pattaya/Jomtien area and suggested that Phuket was heading for the same.

I find that an exaggeration beyond the factual truth but...it would be interesting to learn from long time Pattaya residents if the Russians in general are responsible for the ruin of Pattay/Jomtien area.

I will post a question in the Pattaya forum, ok ?

LaoPo

[Thai at Heart]

Yes indeed what about those Russians, Indians and Chinese! Lets take the Chinese first since in the long run they are the most important group. The Chinese middle class and upper middle class are (or in many cases "were" may be more appropriate) heavily invested in the Shanghai stock exchange, and since it hit its highs last fall the Shanghai exchange is down over 65% and still falling (thats quite a bite out of the family budget), then of course there is the added gremlin of nearly double digit inflation that has hit the Chinese people, so its not very likely that Thailand will be seeing an increase in Chinese tourists anytime soon. India is slightly different, I say that only because that India is suseptable to the worldwide economic virus, but like Korea it will be a slightly delayed reaction, so while it is possible that Indian and Korean tourisim could hold up this season, I would certainly keep an eye on it as it could prove to be the figuritive "canary in the coal mine". And now for the Russians The Russian stock market is also on a steep decline, but for vastly different reasons than the Chinese market. Mr. Putin's (oh wait a minute make tha Mr. Medvedev ) recent holiday incursion into the sovereign nation of Georgia and his failure to keep his word once again, along with his very unconcilliatory rhetoric has permanently damaged the Russian stock market and likely the future of Russian capitalisim. With that said I think there could very well be a strong contingent of Russians this tourist season, but depending on the Russians to make up for North American and European tourists creates a twofold problem: (1) Russia will increasingly become a one trick pony (oil), and if oil prices continue to deflate as worldwide demand decreases and nations across the globe go greener with biofuels, LNG, coal gasification and conservation, then many of those Russians will not have the disposable income in the out years to vacation in Thailand, (2) I found in my travels throuout Thailand that there is a universal distaste for Russian tourists, not only among most thais who have to deal with them, but with other farang expatriots and tourists alike. In particular I talked at length with a dozen or so couples-families (mostly Swedish, Danes and Brits) most of which had been taking regular holiday in Thailand for the past 15-20 years, and the same theme echoed in each of my discussions when the topic of what they called the "Russian invasion"came up. Each one of them told me virtually the same thing and that was that the Russians had ruined the Pattaya-Jomtien area where many of these folks use to spend some of their time but now they avoid it altogether, and they also said that Phuket was heading in the same direction as Patters. One of the Sweedish families I talked to who had been vacationing in the LOS for over 20 years said that they were heading for Ko Pi Pi when they leave Ko Chang because that was the one place that the Russians hadn't ruined yet, but they also mentioned that as much as they love Thailand and the Thai people if they find that Ko Pi Pi has gone the way of Pattaya and Phuket then they will have to consider a destination

other than Thailand for there future holidays. If I were running the TAT I would be very careful who I catered to and depended on for the future of Thai tourisim.

Really VV.....PLEASE, can't you just try to write in separate sentences ? Your Posts are almost unreadable for others.

Let me copy-and-paste your entire post and I'll show you what I mean.

In fact it is SO simple. If you finish a sentence: Press "Enter" and you will have a new line; hit it 2 times and you will get double space and with 'Backspace' you will return UP again. Just try it on an empty form or 'reply'.

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Yes indeed what about those Russians, Indians and Chinese! Lets take the Chinese first since in the long run they are the most important group.

The Chinese middle class and upper middle class are (or in many cases "were" may be more appropriate) heavily invested in the Shanghai stock exchange, and since it hit its highs last fall the Shanghai exchange is down over 65% and still falling (thats quite a bite out of the family budget), then of course there is the added gremlin of nearly double digit inflation that has hit the Chinese people, so its not very likely that Thailand will be seeing an increase in Chinese tourists anytime soon. (this is just ONE sentence...)

India is slightly different, I say that only because that India is suseptable to the worldwide economic virus, but like Korea it will be a slightly delayed reaction, so while it is possible that Indian and Korean tourisim could hold up this season, I would certainly keep an eye on it as it could prove to be the figuritive "canary in the coal mine".

And now for the Russians ohmy.gif The Russian stock market is also on a steep decline, but for vastly different reasons than the Chinese market.

Mr. Putin's (oh wait a minute make tha Mr. Medvedev laugh.gif ) recent holiday incursion into the sovereign nation of Georgia and his failure to keep his word once again, along with his very unconcilliatory rhetoric has permanently damaged the Russian stock market and likely the future of Russian capitalisim.

With that said I think there could very well be a strong contingent of Russians this tourist season, but depending on the Russians to make up for North American and European tourists creates a twofold problem:

(1) Russia will increasingly become a one trick pony (oil), and if oil prices continue to deflate as worldwide demand decreases and nations across the globe go greener with biofuels, LNG, coal gasification and conservation, then many of those Russians will not have the disposable income in the out years to vacation in Thailand,

(2) I found in my travels throuout Thailand that there is a universal distaste for Russian tourists, not only among most thais who have to deal with them, but with other farang expatriots and tourists alike. In particular I talked at length with a dozen or so couples-families (mostly Swedish, Danes and Brits) most of which had been taking regular holiday in Thailand for the past 15-20 years, and the same theme echoed in each of my discussions when the topic of what they called the "Russian invasion"came up.

Each one of them told me virtually the same thing and that was that the Russians had ruined the Pattaya-Jomtien area where many of these folks use to spend some of their time but now they avoid it altogether, and they also said that Phuket was heading in the same direction as Patters.

One of the Sweedish families I talked to who had been vacationing in the LOS for over 20 years said that they were heading for Ko Pi Pi when they leave Ko Chang because that was the one place that the Russians hadn't ruined yet, but they also mentioned that as much as they love Thailand and the Thai people if they find that Ko Pi Pi has gone the way of Pattaya and Phuket then they will have to consider a destination other than Thailand for there future holidays.

If I were running the TAT I would be very careful who I catered to and depended on for the future of Thai tourisim.

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You spend a lot of time writing your posts but I'm afraid that if you continue doing so and write such long sentences and without space between them, VERY FEW members will read them and I assume that's not what you wish to accomplish ?

Now, back on topic of tourism.

Maybe you should have a look here regarding tourism to Thailand.

In fact it's very simple:

2007:

China ca. 1 Million tourists and declining -3% versus 2006

India 500,000 +17,8% v 2006

Russia 280,000 +46,6% v. 2006

USA 623,000 and declining -2,66%

Tourism from Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore declined as well. Combined they are good for 4 Million tourists to Thailand and that's more than the whole of Europe, including Russia and Eastern European countries.

The 280,000 Russians can hardly be blamed by the people you mentioned as being the Russian Invasion ruining Pattaya/Jomtien. The Swedes outnumber them with 100,000 tourists and the UK 3 times as many.

THAILAND_2007_tourist_numbers_res_1_12_1.XLS International tourist arrivals in 2007 versus 2006

THAILAND_stay_1_5.XLS Average lenght of stay Jan-May in days of International tourists 2007 v 2006

However: I foresee a total drop of between 15-20% in total INBOUND Thai tourism for 2008.

The TAT numbers are painted; The 2007 number of 14,4 Million tourists include 2 Million 'tourists' from Malaysia and Laos alone.

Yeah...right.

LaoPo

These figures appear completely skewed. Anyone popping into Thailand for a day's business on a tourist visa from Laos then returning is a tourist in the strictest part of the word, but it grossly inflates the figures. 5 times a month, and there are 5 tourists. Likewise coming from Singapore for a 1 day meeting and leaving is probably counted as a tourist, even if ticking the "business" box on the immigration form.

Anyone have any idea what the true number of "holiday-makers" there are. In which case, the endless growth target for tourism of 14mn, is a completely baseless number anyway.

[LaoPo]

These figures appear completely skewed. Anyone popping into Thailand for a day's business on a tourist visa from Laos then returning is a tourist in the strictest part of the word, but it grossly inflates the figures. 5 times a month, and there are 5 tourists. Likewise coming from Singapore for a 1 day meeting and leaving is probably counted as a tourist, even if ticking the "business" box on the immigration form.

Anyone have any idea what the true number of "holiday-makers" there are. In which case, the endless growth target for tourism of 14mn, is a completely baseless number anyway.

You're right and I said so many times.

The TAT statistics are just a kind of fake, especially with the numbers from Malaysia, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia and probably also from Indonesia and Philippines. We are talking many millions here, and I'm not even talking tourist border crossers and visa-runners (few times/year).

I mentioned before that the likely number is somewhere between 9-10 Million REAL tourists but I'm afraid we will never know and it could even be lower.

LaoPo

[tommyj4]

"Well I've been working more than 10 years in a travel agency in Bangkok and my facts based on arrival from our company and what sales people in hotels says. Most of western tourists in our company book 4-7 days hotel accommodations when Russian tourists book for 10-14 days.. And based on what hotels says is that western tourist usually spend money outside of hotel when russians spend inside the hotel. "

Exactly......The Russians Chineese & Indians tend to stay inside rather than get out & spend all their lovely rubles etc....they dont tip either...maybe stay twice as long but only spend half as much....Cant remember the last time I saw an Indian or Chineese person in a million baht Fortuna/DMax....

[LaoPo]

Exactly......The Russians Chineese & Indians tend to stay inside rather than get out & spend all their lovely rubles etc....they dont tip either...maybe stay twice as long but only spend half as much....Cant remember the last time I saw an Indian or Chineese person in a million baht Fortuna/DMax....

Russians stay about 13+ days and spend Baht 4.030/day

Chinese ca. 7 days and spend almost Baht 4,400/day

Indians about 6 days average and spend Baht 4,700/day

To compare:

The average EU tourist spend Baht 3.800/day (but stay 15,26 days) whilst the average tourist from The Americas spend Baht 4,600/day and stay 10,81 days.

All numbers from TAT and 2007.

LaoPo

[0Mix1up]

tat just have to explain that they are fighting over who's turn at the trough it is.