Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[flying]

Flying,

That might be @ $2000.

Better to like Silver and the S&P parity..........@$300.

Regards.

You know tele I'm ok with that too

But Silver at $300 would probably put gold at $16k + if using the roughly 55/1 ratio of today

Although "During the time of the industrialization from 1792 till today, the average gold/silver ratio was at 31."

So 31/1 with Silver at $300 would mean $9300 Gold

You could be right TT & I would be happy with either scenario

[Abrak]

Flying,

That might be @ $2000.

Better to like Silver and the S&P parity..........@$300.

Regards.

You know tele I'm ok with that too

But Silver at $300 would probably put gold at $16k + if using the roughly 55/1 ratio of today

Although "During the time of the industrialization from 1792 till today, the average gold/silver ratio was at 31."

So 31/1 with Silver at $300 would mean $9300 Gold

You could be right TT & I would be happy with either scenario

1792 seems a bit of an odd date to choose if you ask me. If you had looked at the previous 300 years you would see a fairly constant ratio of 15:1 (I am not sure why but it was very constant.)

BTW as a simple trading philosophy given that the gold Dow ratio has ranged from 47:1 to 1:1 and that the Dow valuations fairly stable on any fundamental basis, taken over the last 100 years, it simply wouldnt be prudent to set a strategy based on the extremes. Remember it is simply an ounce of gold weighted against a wide ranging mixed of other parameters in terms of assets (the dollar value is irrelevant to a large extent). If you could consistently trade at a 25:1, 4:1 ratio over time you would be very wealthy.

I find the concept of the Dow losing 90% of its value against gold and not being a buy as difficult as gold losing 90% of its value to the Dow and not being a buy. What is rather amazing is that neither really has to do much with the value of the dollar. You would not believe how boring and stable the fundamentals of the S&P500 are over the last 100 years if you smooth out cycles.

[flying]

You know tele I'm ok with that too

But Silver at $300 would probably put gold at $16k + if using the roughly 55/1 ratio of today

Although "During the time of the industrialization from 1792 till today, the average gold/silver ratio was at 31."

So 31/1 with Silver at $300 would mean $9300 Gold

You could be right TT & I would be happy with either scenario

1792 seems a bit of an odd date to choose if you ask me. If you had looked at the previous 300 years you would see a fairly constant ratio of 15:1 (I am not sure why but it was very constant.)

BTW as a simple trading philosophy given that the gold Dow ratio has ranged from 47:1 to 1:1 and that the Dow valuations fairly stable on any fundamental basis, taken over the last 100 years, it simply wouldnt be prudent to set a strategy based on the extremes. Remember it is simply an ounce of gold weighted against a wide ranging mixed of other parameters in terms of assets (the dollar value is irrelevant to a large extent). If you could consistently trade at a 25:1, 4:1 ratio over time you would be very wealthy.

I find the concept of the Dow losing 90% of its value against gold and not being a buy as difficult as gold losing 90% of its value to the Dow and not being a buy. What is rather amazing is that neither really has to do much with the value of the dollar. You would not believe how boring and stable the fundamentals of the S&P500 are over the last 100 years if you smooth out cycles.

Yeah 1792.....I have no idea & it is just something I quoted from an article I read on silver-info.com

The parity comment with the DOW was just an off handed comment of when to sell. Although I know seriously successful folks who believe it.

I do in fact have numbers for both Silver & Gold at which I will sell

Like you I would not consider dow/gold a trading tool.

I do take notice of it though but tend to look at the gold/silver ratio more & even that just mainly out of curiosity.

Also just out of curiosity looked at a few Dow/Gold charts just now & perhaps would now sell @ 2.5/1

Edited October 25, 2010 by flying

[Abrak]

You know tele I'm ok with that too

But Silver at $300 would probably put gold at $16k + if using the roughly 55/1 ratio of today

Although "During the time of the industrialization from 1792 till today, the average gold/silver ratio was at 31."

So 31/1 with Silver at $300 would mean $9300 Gold

You could be right TT & I would be happy with either scenario

1792 seems a bit of an odd date to choose if you ask me. If you had looked at the previous 300 years you would see a fairly constant ratio of 15:1 (I am not sure why but it was very constant.)

BTW as a simple trading philosophy given that the gold Dow ratio has ranged from 47:1 to 1:1 and that the Dow valuations fairly stable on any fundamental basis, taken over the last 100 years, it simply wouldnt be prudent to set a strategy based on the extremes. Remember it is simply an ounce of gold weighted against a wide ranging mixed of other parameters in terms of assets (the dollar value is irrelevant to a large extent). If you could consistently trade at a 25:1, 4:1 ratio over time you would be very wealthy.

I find the concept of the Dow losing 90% of its value against gold and not being a buy as difficult as gold losing 90% of its value to the Dow and not being a buy. What is rather amazing is that neither really has to do much with the value of the dollar. You would not believe how boring and stable the fundamentals of the S&P500 are over the last 100 years if you smooth out cycles.

Yeah 1792.....I have no idea & it is just something I quoted from an article I read on silver-info.com

The parity comment with the DOW was just an off handed comment of when to sell. Although I know seriously successful folks who believe it.

I do in fact have numbers for both Silver & Gold at which I will sell

Like you I would not consider dow/gold a trading tool.

I do take notice of it though but tend to look at the gold/silver ratio more & even that just mainly out of curiosity.

Also just out of curiosity looked at a few Dow/Gold charts just now & perhaps would now sell @ 2.5/1

Nice chart. On a slightly fundamental note. Stocks between 1900 and 1940 had a very high payout ratio (about 80%) so they didnt reinvest and grow their earnings so fast, so their price reflected a sort of static earnings profile like gold. Obviously in later years payour declined to current 30% which accelerated EPS and share price return (while reducing dividend return.)

I dont like PMs because I dont understand them but have silver as a hedge. I am vowed not really to take profits because the asset simply becomes more important as it rises and I have no desire to average down. However at 2.5:1 I would throw caution to the wind. Does it look the same on the S&P500. The Dow is the most incredibly stupid stockmarket barometer.

One thing I can guarantee for sure is that the idea of a gold constant is totally absurd. In reality the world doesnt really change over a long period of time and the volatility of the gold price can only really be justified as a very theoretical commodity proxy. Obviously any price of gold can be justified against paper but if anyone is intending to accumulate their wealth in paper US$ it is highly unlikely they are sane.

Edit: Yes everything is chaotic. But paper money is the most useless thing to compare gold to. In fact I suspect that the more paper money is rendered worthless there is a risk that you believe that gold is valuable. If say gold fell 90% against property then we are talking real assets and presumably gold must be a buy. Alternatively if gold rises 10x against property it should be a sell despite the fact that gold was undervalued before and property overvalued. Obviously things are different for those keeping a stash for when they are on the run.

Seriously property valuations havent really traded on more than a 5:1 basis on the last 450 years so you should be pretty safe.

Edited October 25, 2010 by Abrak

[cloudhopper]

Now that is an interesting chart Flying; even I can understand it.

Mr. T and I both pity the fool who thinks the behavior of chaotic phenomena can be successfully predicted however; the Fed is a very strange attractor indeed.

[Abrak]

Now that is an interesting chart Flying; even I can understand it.

Mr. T and I both pity the fool who thinks the behavior of chaotic phenomena can be successfully predicted however; the Fed is a very strange attractor indeed.

However, I do think I feel pretty foolish not having bought gold within two years of its bottom.IT could have been justified simply on the total lack of correlation to financial assets at the time. Difficult to find an asset like that at the moment.

[flying]

kor tort double post

Edited October 25, 2010 by flying

[flying]

Does it look the same on the S&P500. The Dow is the most incredibly stupid stockmarket barometer.

Edited October 25, 2010 by flying

[badge]

Now that is an interesting chart Flying; even I can understand it.

Mr. T and I both pity the fool who thinks the behavior of chaotic phenomena can be successfully predicted however; the Fed is a very strange attractor indeed.

Spot Gold prices could turn anywhere; must of been coincidence, again

[flying]

Spot Gold prices could turn anywhere; must of been coincidence, again

Good call....

Jesse's has been showing 1375 then a retrace but then onwards to 1455 for quite awhile now too.

Actually not sure when he started showing this chart but I know he has been since at least June

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/06/gold-daily-chart_30.html

Edited October 26, 2010 by flying

[george]

I'm getting cold feet, time to sell off 50% of gold investment?

[cloudhopper]

I'm getting cold feet, time to sell off 50% of gold investment?

There have been reports of profit realization and its attendant benefits. I won't offer any advice since I don't own it for investment purposes.

[Naam]

I'm getting cold feet, time to sell off 50% of gold investment?

There have been reports of profit realization and its attendant benefits. I won't offer any advice since I don't own it for investment purposes.

moreover, any forecasts -especially those pertaining to the future- are very difficult

[cloudhopper]

Here's another viewpoint on the OP.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/no-gold-or-silver-bubble-says-sprotts-john-embry

IMO as the various US states begin to implode under the weight of unkeepable public retirement and entitlement promises the (newly elected, regardless of party) US congress will authorize various emergency bail outs giving cover for massive QE. The UK seems to be heading down this path as well. This is all speculation regarding essentially political outcomes but anyone whose income and financial wealth is denominated in USD or GBP might well consider ways to insure against the increasing risk of resulting severe loss of purchasing power.

[flying]

I'm getting cold feet, time to sell off 50% of gold investment?

What was your premise when you bought?

That should help you decide

[Naam]

I'm getting cold feet, time to sell off 50% of gold investment?

There have been reports of profit realization and its attendant benefits. I won't offer any advice since I don't own it for investment purposes.

the mia noi i would like to "acquire" is not meant for sex. all i want is to play monopoly with her

[tijnebijn]

I'm getting cold feet, time to sell off 50% of gold investment?

There have been reports of profit realization and its attendant benefits. I won't offer any advice since I don't own it for investment purposes.

the mia noi i would like to "acquire" is not meant for sex. all i want is to play monopoly with her

Should change your avatar to Dagobert Duck , from Walt Disney .

[cloudhopper]

Interesting interview featuring the Thai baht ("the strongest currency in the world right now"), gold and more...

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/10/23_Gold_%26_Silver_Report_-_Greg_Weldon.html

[flying]

Interesting interview featuring the Thai baht ("the strongest currency in the world right now"), gold and more...

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/10/23_Gold_%26_Silver_Report_-_Greg_Weldon.html

Thanks CH that was good

[Naam]

I'm getting cold feet, time to sell off 50% of gold investment?

There have been reports of profit realization and its attendant benefits. I won't offer any advice since I don't own it for investment purposes.

the mia noi i would like to "acquire" is not meant for sex. all i want is to play monopoly with her

Should change your avatar to Dagobert Duck , from Walt Disney .

Dagobert Duck had a mia noi?

[Abrak]

Does it look the same on the S&P500. The Dow is the most incredibly stupid stockmarket barometer.

Thanks and one of the most bullish charts I have seen on gold.

[teletiger]

the mia noi i would like to "acquire" is not meant for sex. all i want is to play monopoly with her

2 Years, or so, ago (Baht 12,500) I bought 2 years expenses in gold as insurance. Never to be sold at any price, even a drop down to double figures. I initially thought I would need to top it up as time went by and prices rose. Now I find my monthly expenses are less than Herr Naam's electric bill. Literally. I'm now holding about 3 years expenses.

Warning: I cry if I can't get the "top hat" on monopoly.

Regards.

[churchill]

Following on from an earlier discussion

Dr M: Gold backing of currency doesn't make it Islamic

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/fmt-english/politics/barisan-nasional/12063-dr-m-gold-backing-of-currency-doesnt-make-it-islamic

[Abrak]

the mia noi i would like to "acquire" is not meant for sex. all i want is to play monopoly with her

2 Years, or so, ago (Baht 12,500) I bought 2 years expenses in gold as insurance. Never to be sold at any price, even a drop down to double figures. I initially thought I would need to top it up as time went by and prices rose. Now I find my monthly expenses are less than Herr Naam's electric bill. Literally. I'm now holding about 3 years expenses.

Warning: I cry if I can't get the "top hat" on monopoly.

Regards.

What were you actually insuring against?

[ExpatJ]

Well i have finally diversified my investment portfolio into Gold- up until now my portfolio has been divided equally between property, stocks and cash. Now going to move 10% into gold...even with the big increase over the last year the signs are pointing towards a continued increase in the next 1 year or so to 'bubble' status. More printing money in US/UK, decreased confidence in the US/EU stock markets, the already big increase in gold prices will all result in more average household investors piling into gold....perfect bubble inducing environment (and great for investors who can sell at or nearish the top).

This is my preliminary assessment based on some back ground reading in last few days- i know this forum has many knowledgeable gold investors...so, am i deluded in my assessment?

[teletiger]

What were you actually insuring against?

A fiat collapse.

On that other PM....

"CFTC's Chilton Admits Silver Market Subject To "Fraudulent" Influences, Says Manipulation Should Be Prosecuted"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cftcs-chilton-admits-silver-market-subject-fraudulent-influences-says-manipulation-should-be

Regards.

[Naam]

the mia noi i would like to "acquire" is not meant for sex. all i want is to play monopoly with her

2 Years, or so, ago (Baht 12,500) I bought 2 years expenses in gold as insurance. Never to be sold at any price, even a drop down to double figures. I initially thought I would need to top it up as time went by and prices rose. Now I find my monthly expenses are less than Herr Naam's electric bill. Literally. I'm now holding about 3 years expenses.

Warning: I cry if I can't get the "top hat" on monopoly.

Regards.

am i right to assume that all other monthly expenses are paid for by your wife or father-in-law?

[flying]

Banks Short 20,000 tonnes of gold

So, before any pundit makes a price forecast, and before anyone lucky enough to own gold thinks about selling, they should dwell on this important question: in this extraordinary market where the central banks are at war, where the devil and at what price are we going to find 20,000 tonnes of gold?

Edited October 26, 2010 by flying

[flying]

Silver Subject to Price Manipulation, Chilton Says

Also on Jesse's

The manipulation in the silver market with two or three banks holding enormous undeliverable short positions was obvious, for years.

The CFTC was complicit in turning a blind eye to this, stonewalling and whitewashing the corruption, as were many market commentators and participants. Ted Butler and GATA did a wonderful job of highlighting this enormous fraud but were ignored and even vilified for the past twelve years in the same vein as whistle blower Harry Markopolos was in raising concerns about Madoff's investment scheme.

Bart Chilton is speaking out as he said a few weeks ago he would if the CFTC was not making progress in correct this travesty. This is the sort of reform that the people were seeking when they swept the Democrats into office, a reform which they never received.

This obviously should be investigated by an independent body, given the regulatory capture held by the banks who manipulated the market to the detriment of the world in suppressing prices and creating an artificial shortage that will be painful to unwind.

This is not a partisan issue, but involves politicians of both parties going back twenty years or more, in both London and New York. And the corruption is pervasive and ongoing in multiple US finanical and commodity markets. The regulators and ratings agencies have not been doing their jobs.

Some will attempt to dismiss what Mr. Chilton is saying here as inconclusive. Keep in mind that he is a high profile CFTC official, and what he says comes through a 50,000 watt megaphone, so he must choose his words with great care. But this is almost unprecedented for an official to speak out against his own administration.

The response to these sorts of revelations seem to be a blanket of media silence and whispered character assassination, which is the mark in trade of those who have no sense of duty, honor, and country. Their crime is betrayal of the public trust, and the public's fault is apathetic complicity. 'Silver did not rally on the news, it must not be significant. I did not hear about this on television, so it must not be true.'

But the dominos are starting to fall, and more revelations are to come.

Also on Reuters

CFTC's Chilton raises alarm about silver market

WASHINGTON

Tue Oct 26, 2010 9:30am EDT

Oct 26 (Reuters) - There have been repeated attempts to influence prices in silver markets, Bart Chilton, a commissioner at the U.S. futures regulator, said on Tuesday.

"There have been fraudulent efforts to persuade and deviously control that price," Chilton said in prepared remarks before a Commodity Futures Trading Commission meeting.

Chilton said he could not pre-judge the outcome of the CFTC's ongoing investigation of the silver markets, but said public deserves some answers to their concerns.

Gold and silver are no bubbles. It is a reverse Ponzi scheme that goes back for decades, that has sold many more ounces of metal than can possibly be delivered at today's artificially low prices, that was tolerated and even promoted by those who were running a monetary control fraud, quite probably the greatest in history. The banks and insiders are trapped and desperate, trying to bluff and buy themselves out of another fraud yet again. They will never give up, but will have to be rooted out. It is unlikely that reform can come from within, since the righteous anger of the people and the will to change will be co-opted by those very forces that have manipulated the system and perpetrated the fraud.

Fortunes will be made and lost, and careers ruined, as the revelations of manipulation and corruption are made over the next ten years. And this will make for dangerous times, as an empire of deceit collapses not at once, but in stages. There will be new threats and more bailouts for the banks to be paid by 'austerity' for the common person who is caught up in their own web of petty diversions, apathetic cynicism and denial. There is little better example of this than Britain but America is not far behind.

But the tide has turned and change is in the wind.

Edited October 26, 2010 by flying

[Naam]

Banks Short 20,000 tonnes of gold

So, before any pundit makes a price forecast, and before anyone lucky enough to own gold thinks about selling, they should dwell on this important question: in this extraordinary market where the central banks are at war, where the devil and at what price are we going to find 20,000 tonnes of gold?

The only major bullion bank that declares its bullion holdings is HSBC, which at the end of 2009 held gold valued at $13.757bn (392.6 tonnes). We shall assume that this bullion is held against HSBC’s unallocated accounts and we shall further assume a reasonable fractional reserve multiple of 10, which gives us net uncovered liabilities of 3,533 tonnes for HSBC alone.

However, there are 35 banks listed as full members of the LBMA, and it can be assumed that nearly all of them offer unallocated account facilities[ii]. It is also possible, even likely, that the fractional reserve multiple for many of these banks is higher than 10, because banks have been generally reluctant to hold the one reserve currency that pays no interest.[iii] Furthermore, some of these banks are among the largest in the world. Taking all this into account, it is possible that LBMA members are short of over 20,000 tonnes on their unallocated accounts.