Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[ajarnpot]

Please pm me if interested.

{

are you charging VAT too?

}

Never thought of that pre3vious non advertisment VAT not included, apparently amateur fraudster is acceptable for work permit, so long as I hasve 4 thai empoloyees, lawyer, cleaner, secretary, and general assistant, BOI happy, I'm happy you will be happy to, just send me your gold

[Naam]

today is not a good day for the heavy metals.

[churchill]

today is not a good day for the heavy metals.

or paper Euros ...

[Naam]

today is not a good day for the heavy metals.

or paper Euros ...

or paper Sterling

because paper Dollar rules!

Edited July 12, 2012 by Naam

[flying]

Cyclist has said a week ago....

Markets will go up & down on debt driven news till the 17th

then we could see

a violent collapse into August first week as the same happened November 1929.

The signatures are all over the place.The US dollar could very well go to 87 or a 5 % jump with the Euro to 115.

Lets see..............

[mccw]

Naam I see your logic in thinking depression over inflation and basically agree with you on many the reasons you stated. But I think your missing one thing:

The QE is still entering the system and diluting the value of money I think because, although much is parked in bonds, much is "played" with in the casino. So prices of real things you and I need to purchase are inflated while the "real" economy stagnates or becomes worse and the bankers and moneyed elite continue to enrich themselves/ concentrate wealth and assets.

Also the effects of the ever expanding population and limits to supply from increasingly extreme weather for food or costs of extraction for minerals, energy, Etc come to make a price inflation scenario with out the need for wage inflation as a driving force (although this could also be said to of happened from the BRICs and such, just not the west).

Perhaps to come there can be ever great fluctuations in "spot" prices as the large concentration of money and lack of consequence for power players in the casino leads to greater and greater instability; but if anything this can lead to even higher prices as business try's, if they can get away with it, to cover the instability through the higher prices. This can be seen in fuel cost already; the pump price is higher than when market was at its peak Despite a the market now being 20% or so less and it's rise continued through the lows of the market around 08 aswell. Also think retail electric and gas companies.

Look at Thailand or most any other country- the price of staple foods and services continues to climb yet you say everything should be getting cheaper.

Some discretionary things maybe cheaper simply because smaller profits must be accepted simply to get a sale ; ie cars, tvs and such,

But

Just a few example from this week- my plane ticket was 611, 07 was 390 - my weekly shop now average 80 , 07 was around 40-50, - a full tank petrol now is 70 -80 , 07 was 50.

inflation rate of staples is probably much much higher than reported because these discretionary items are included in the way it's calculated.

I see this stagflation continue for maybe ten years until debt value debased; it's that or total melt down/ widespread gov and personal default.

Both scenario is very possible and why I hold physical PMs as hopefully a store of value, but mainly protection from bank runs or "IT" problems. (thats what RBS has to do with gold topic naam) It's not for a hope of some price explosion like some people would love to assume all bullion holders are.

------/-/-------

Again with the "every buy has a sell" argument; I thought we went over this already

Law of Demand and supply

Unlimited Creation of paper supply = ? Nothing? ???

---------

If growth is the way to escape the mire and conserted efforts taken then this too = inflation

[Naam]

The QE is still entering the system and diluting the value of money I think because, although much is parked in bonds, much is "played" with in the casino. So prices of real things you and I need to purchase are inflated while the "real" economy stagnates or becomes worse and the bankers and moneyed elite continue to enrich themselves/ concentrate wealth and assets.

mccw,

there's a limit that casino games can be played with commodities which you and i need to buy. when you look at the non-food commodities over the last few years you will realise a lot of burnt banker fingers who selected the wrong side of the trades. food items are of course different animals. you and me can hedge food items whereas Somchai Pornthip making 8k Baht a month cannot.

and if Somchai can't afford to pay for specific food he won't buy it and try alternatives. if he can't afford the alternatives Somchai, his wife and his children will go hungry. the bankster speculators cannot put their hands in a naked man's pocket.

[Naam]

Also the effects of the ever expanding population and limits to supply from increasingly extreme weather for food or costs of extraction for minerals, energy, Etc come to make a price inflation scenario with out the need for wage inflation as a driving force (although this could also be said to of happened from the BRICs and such, just not the west).

we have to differentiate between "normal inflation" and inflation caused by QE which i mentioned already is by the gurus who predict inflation and therefore global financial Armaggedon. some of them, especially the extremist Mark Faber have already not only piped down but don't put the word in their mouths anymore.

[Naam]

This can be seen in fuel cost already; the pump price is higher than when market was at its peak Despite a the market now being 20% or so less and it's rise continued through the lows of the market around 08 aswell. Also think retail electric and gas companies.

a common misconception is to compare and link prevailing pump prices with crude prices. we are not filling up our cars with crude but need crude derivatives such as gasoline and diesel. if crude falls 10% the production cost of cracking it into derivatives remains the same. if refineries have hedged their purchase prices of crude by placing their bets on the wrong side it may take months to converge again. the same applies to airlines which hedge their cerosine supplies for long periods. and basically the old business wisdom applies "ask for the highest price a customer is willing to pay!"

[Naam]

Look at Thailand or most any other country- the price of staple foods and services continues to climb yet you say everything should be getting cheaper.

believe it or not! we are spending less money on general living expenses than we spent a few years ago. the reason is that inflation is something that applies in a different way depending on the individual. we came to Thailand eight years ago and paid 4 Baht for one kWh electricity. today we still spend 4 Baht/kWh. that our energy cost has risen from an average of 10,000 Baht/month to an estimated 14,000/month is a self-inflicted cost increase because we like the comfort of aircondition and are not trying to save by sweating. should electricity go up x-% it will be our bad luck but it does not concern Somchai Pornthip (and a lot of expats who brag with their low electricity bills) because Somchai doesn't use airconditioning.

if the price of rice and pork or chicken increases by 50% Somchai and his family will suffer. we won't suffer because the percentage of our expenses on rice, pork and chicken is so miniscule that it will not or hardly show in the budget. i can't comment on services because the services for which we spent most money is maintaining our home and not all services are the same enabling me to compare, except that i paid 400 Baht per aircon service in 2007 and i pay 400 Baht today. but i am well aware that our friends who visit us in Thailand spend double or triple on hotel rooms and restaurants but neither Somchai nor we use hotels and visit restaurants very rarely and the higher prices are irrelevant for us. our friends also tell us of double and more flight cost. but that is because they fly mostly from Europe to Asia. we paid years ago business Thailand > Europe between 80 and 100k Baht and we pay the same now.

[Naam]

Cyclist has said a week ago....

Markets will go up & down on debt driven news till the 17th

then we could see

a violent collapse into August first week as the same happened November 1929.

The signatures are all over the place.The US dollar could very well go to 87 or a 5 % jump with the Euro to 115.

Lets see..............

i don't believe it but i'd like it and i am prepared, at least i think i am i also think that the "cyclist" stuck his neck too far out of the window. let's wait and see, first week of august is not far away.

and if the "cyclist" claims in the second week of august (if nothing happened) that he did not mean 2012 then

[binjalin]

Cyclist has said a week ago....

Markets will go up & down on debt driven news till the 17th

then we could see

a violent collapse into August first week as the same happened November 1929.

The signatures are all over the place.The US dollar could very well go to 87 or a 5 % jump with the Euro to 115.

Lets see..............

i don't believe it but i'd like it and i am prepared, at least i think i am i also think that the "cyclist" stuck his neck too far out of the window. let's wait and see, first week of august is not far away.

and if the "cyclist" claims in the second week of august (if nothing happened) that he did not mean 2012 then

I'm almost 'out' of PM's at 23950 and............ phew........... glad I am......... still got that 40 kilo of silver to 'dump' (got out at 43 and bought back at 34) but let's not get too 'how smart I am' it could all change in the twinkling of an eye... but I do fear a downturn to under 1500 at some stage

edit: jeeze just looked and down 1.27% today for Au to 1560 ish

Edited July 12, 2012 by binjalin

[yoshiwara]

Cyclist has said a week ago....

Markets will go up & down on debt driven news till the 17th

then we could see

a violent collapse into August first week as the same happened November 1929.

The signatures are all over the place.The US dollar could very well go to 87 or a 5 % jump with the Euro to 115.

Lets see..............

i don't believe it but i'd like it and i am prepared, at least i think i am i also think that the "cyclist" stuck his neck too far out of the window. let's wait and see, first week of august is not far away.

and if the "cyclist" claims in the second week of august (if nothing happened) that he did not mean 2012 then

I'm almost 'out' of PM's at 23950 and............ phew........... glad I am......... still got that 40 kilo of silver to 'dump' (got out at 43 and bought back at 34) but let's not get too 'how smart I am' it could all change in the twinkling of an eye... but I do fear a downturn to under 1500 at some stage

edit: jeeze just looked and down 1.27% today for Au to 1560 ish

So I think that currently you are about even on that one? If so why hold if you think a further lurch down on the other metal and the possibility of even higher volatility on silver?

[Naam]

I'm almost 'out' of PM's at 23950 and............ phew........... glad I am......... still got that 40 kilo of silver to 'dump' (got out at 43 and bought back at 34) but let's not get too 'how smart I am' it could all change in the twinkling of an eye... but I do fear a downturn to under 1500 at some stage

edit: jeeze just looked and down 1.27% today for Au to 1560 ish

in what form do you hold your silver?

[binjalin]

I'm almost 'out' of PM's at 23950 and............ phew........... glad I am......... still got that 40 kilo of silver to 'dump' (got out at 43 and bought back at 34) but let's not get too 'how smart I am' it could all change in the twinkling of an eye... but I do fear a downturn to under 1500 at some stage

edit: jeeze just looked and down 1.27% today for Au to 1560 ish

in what form do you hold your silver?

pellets in bags

[binjalin]

Cyclist has said a week ago....

Markets will go up & down on debt driven news till the 17th

then we could see

a violent collapse into August first week as the same happened November 1929.

The signatures are all over the place.The US dollar could very well go to 87 or a 5 % jump with the Euro to 115.

Lets see..............

i don't believe it but i'd like it and i am prepared, at least i think i am i also think that the "cyclist" stuck his neck too far out of the window. let's wait and see, first week of august is not far away.

and if the "cyclist" claims in the second week of august (if nothing happened) that he did not mean 2012 then

I'm almost 'out' of PM's at 23950 and............ phew........... glad I am......... still got that 40 kilo of silver to 'dump' (got out at 43 and bought back at 34) but let's not get too 'how smart I am' it could all change in the twinkling of an eye... but I do fear a downturn to under 1500 at some stage

edit: jeeze just looked and down 1.27% today for Au to 1560 ish

So I think that currently you are about even on that one? If so why hold if you think a further lurch down on the other metal and the possibility of even higher volatility on silver?

rather hold for a few years as I think there is more scope on breaking even on silver - maybe i'm wrong but...

[Naam]

I'm almost 'out' of PM's at 23950 and............ phew........... glad I am......... still got that 40 kilo of silver to 'dump' (got out at 43 and bought back at 34) but let's not get too 'how smart I am' it could all change in the twinkling of an eye... but I do fear a downturn to under 1500 at some stage

edit: jeeze just looked and down 1.27% today for Au to 1560 ish

in what form do you hold your silver?

pellets in bags

what do these pellets look like?

[binjalin]

I'm almost 'out' of PM's at 23950 and............ phew........... glad I am......... still got that 40 kilo of silver to 'dump' (got out at 43 and bought back at 34) but let's not get too 'how smart I am' it could all change in the twinkling of an eye... but I do fear a downturn to under 1500 at some stage

edit: jeeze just looked and down 1.27% today for Au to 1560 ish

in what form do you hold your silver?

pellets in bags

what do these pellets look like?

ermmm... silver round balls? dull in colour...? you're about to make some revelation? I have traded these successfully

[Naam]

ermmm... silver round balls? dull in colour...? you're about to make some revelation? I have traded these successfully

no revelation, just curious because "pellets" of different materials come in a variety of shapes.

[binjalin]

ermmm... silver round balls? dull in colour...? you're about to make some revelation? I have traded these successfully

no revelation, just curious because "pellets" of different materials come in a variety of shapes.

bought them here in Chiang Mai at one of the larger Gold shops

[mccw]

Also the effects of the ever expanding population and limits to supply from increasingly extreme weather for food or costs of extraction for minerals, energy, Etc come to make a price inflation scenario with out the need for wage inflation as a driving force (although this could also be said to of happened from the BRICs and such, just not the west).

we have to differentiate between "normal inflation" and inflation caused by QE which i mentioned already is by the gurus who predict inflation and therefore global financial Armaggedon. some of them, especially the extremist Mark Faber have already not only piped down but don't put the word in their mouths anymore.

Since the money supply is greater now than ever but like you say is not having a great effect over and above "normal" inflation because its all parked in bonds or what have you , does this mean that once stability returns that money will come in the the "real" economy through lending and could then have a great effect or not? If the printing does eventually capitalise banks enough then they will start lending I suppose. Or purchase more imaginative steps could come.

But; Perpetual crises looks to be almost a nessecity while US, UK gov debt is so large; a move of big money out of bonds could tip the balance towards bankruptcy, or ever greater printing to pay off the debt. This is why a high and steady inflation scenario seems to be the unannounced but chosen course until some balance restored.

I think they reckon BRICKs + growth will slow but not reverse, our western currencies devalue and exports to them pick up and debt ratio is bought under control through mix of austerity and dilution. 10-15years plan. Western general populas will no longer be so comparatively wealthy by the end of it and will have lost many of the social services in the process.

Maybe this is what needs to happen - benefits systems rewarding idleness and irresponsibility, law weighted on protecting the bloody human rights of criminals and scumbags; it's a freakish abnormality of history and an affront to the notion of a just civilisation; personally a stripping back of the nanny state will be the silver lining of this whole mess.

I'm rambling; apologies.

(I don't profess to be a guru with all the answers and fully functional crystal ball; I just share my thoughts occasionally and find it interesting when they are challenged or commented on so it triggers further contemplation. Often the conclusions change or are many in possibilities but I'll just talk a couple; no dogma - more shifting % likely hoods of many outcome scenarios; this is how I make a plan for life and investments- so all reasoned and sensible input is much appreciated)

[yoshiwara]

Also the effects of the ever expanding population and limits to supply from increasingly extreme weather for food or costs of extraction for minerals, energy, Etc come to make a price inflation scenario with out the need for wage inflation as a driving force (although this could also be said to of happened from the BRICs and such, just not the west).

we have to differentiate between "normal inflation" and inflation caused by QE which i mentioned already is by the gurus who predict inflation and therefore global financial Armaggedon. some of them, especially the extremist Mark Faber have already not only piped down but don't put the word in their mouths anymore.

I think they reckon BRICKs + growth will slow

I think you mean the BRICs unless you are chucking in Kazakhstan, Kenya or Kuwait for free.

[mccw]

The QE is still entering the system and diluting the value of money I think because, although much is parked in bonds, much is "played" with in the casino. So prices of real things you and I need to purchase are inflated while the "real" economy stagnates or becomes worse and the bankers and moneyed elite continue to enrich themselves/ concentrate wealth and assets.

mccw,

there's a limit that casino games can be played with commodities which you and i need to buy. when you look at the non-food commodities over the last few years you will realise a lot of burnt banker fingers who selected the wrong side of the trades. food items are of course different animals. you and me can hedge food items whereas Somchai Pornthip making 8k Baht a month cannot.

and if Somchai can't afford to pay for specific food he won't buy it and try alternatives. if he can't afford the alternatives Somchai, his wife and his children will go hungry. the bankster speculators cannot put their hands in a naked man's pocket.

Yeah; just a steady stagflation for a decade or so is my guess.

So how do you hedge?

Mine is properties (mortgaged) for income.

PMs as a more liquid reserve to cover any bank runs, currency devaluation etc.

The gamble is obviously the mortgages- I think the currency will devalue and interest rates can not go up too much because of the load of debt in system they would not risk to tip the economy over the edge any time soon (5-10years I'm guessing and in the time the PMs might have gained substantially- but even if not PMs will still serve the purpose of what I consider a safer store than "lending" it to a bank at tiny interest or simply held in cash; but I do keep some that also. Only enough numbers on screens for operating business and normal life through the direct debts and payment /transfer services banks are useful for.

[mccw]

Look at Thailand or most any other country- the price of staple foods and services continues to climb yet you say everything should be getting cheaper.

believe it or not! we are spending less money on general living expenses than we spent a few years ago. the reason is that inflation is something that applies in a different way depending on the individual. we came to Thailand eight years ago and paid 4 Baht for one kWh electricity. today we still spend 4 Baht/kWh. that our energy cost has risen from an average of 10,000 Baht/month to an estimated 14,000/month is a self-inflicted cost increase because we like the comfort of aircondition and are not trying to save by sweating. should electricity go up x-% it will be our bad luck but it does not concern Somchai Pornthip (and a lot of expats who brag with their low electricity bills) because Somchai doesn't use airconditioning.

if the price of rice and pork or chicken increases by 50% Somchai and his family will suffer. we won't suffer because the percentage of our expenses on rice, pork and chicken is so miniscule that it will not or hardly show in the budget. i can't comment on services because the services for which we spent most money is maintaining our home and not all services are the same enabling me to compare, except that i paid 400 Baht per aircon service in 2007 and i pay 400 Baht today. but i am well aware that our friends who visit us in Thailand spend double or triple on hotel rooms and restaurants but neither Somchai nor we use hotels and visit restaurants very rarely and the higher prices are irrelevant for us. our friends also tell us of double and more flight cost. but that is because they fly mostly from Europe to Asia. we paid years ago business Thailand > Europe between 80 and 100k Baht and we pay the same now.

Somchai or kkawczynski might now matter to you; but these are the people I rent half my rooms to for biz; so its worth my time thinking about. 20% a year for staples limits my ability to raise rents etc while my own operating costs (ie utilities) are still rising.

[Naam]

Somchai or kkawczynski might now matter to you; but these are the people I rent half my rooms to for biz; so its worth my time thinking about. 20% a year for staples limits my ability to raise rents etc while my own operating costs (ie utilities) are still rising.

i understand but it just proves my point that inflation is something that cannot be generalised and applied across the board.

[mccw]

Somchai or kkawczynski might now matter to you; but these are the people I rent half my rooms to for biz; so its worth my time thinking about. 20% a year for staples limits my ability to raise rents etc while my own operating costs (ie utilities) are still rising.

i understand but it just proves my point that inflation is something that cannot be generalised and applied across the board.

Guesstimating that at least 95-99% of the worlds population will feel the effects through various degrees of suffering or lowering of living standards and purchasing power.

[Jayman]

MineWeb: Indian central bank wants people to exchange metal for paper

The Reserve Bank of India is looking to mobilise the country's idle gold deposits. The apex bank is mulling ways other than direct curbs on imports of gold to reduce the current account deficit.

With gold imports contributing substantially to India's current account deficit, a bank instituted panel is looking into the aspects of devising some alternative routes.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=155071&sn=Detail&pid=110649

[yoshiwara]

Look at Thailand or most any other country- the price of staple foods and services continues to climb yet you say everything should be getting cheaper.

believe it or not! we are spending less money on general living expenses than we spent a few years ago. the reason is that inflation is something that applies in a different way depending on the individual. we came to Thailand eight years ago and paid 4 Baht for one kWh electricity. today we still spend 4 Baht/kWh. that our energy cost has risen from an average of 10,000 Baht/month to an estimated 14,000/month is a self-inflicted cost increase because we like the comfort of aircondition and are not trying to save by sweating. should electricity go up x-% it will be our bad luck but it does not concern Somchai Pornthip (and a lot of expats who brag with their low electricity bills) because Somchai doesn't use airconditioning.

if the price of rice and pork or chicken increases by 50% Somchai and his family will suffer. we won't suffer because the percentage of our expenses on rice, pork and chicken is so miniscule that it will not or hardly show in the budget. i can't comment on services because the services for which we spent most money is maintaining our home and not all services are the same enabling me to compare, except that i paid 400 Baht per aircon service in 2007 and i pay 400 Baht today. but i am well aware that our friends who visit us in Thailand spend double or triple on hotel rooms and restaurants but neither Somchai nor we use hotels and visit restaurants very rarely and the higher prices are irrelevant for us. our friends also tell us of double and more flight cost. but that is because they fly mostly from Europe to Asia. we paid years ago business Thailand > Europe between 80 and 100k Baht and we pay the same now.

Somchai or kkawczynski might now matter to you; but these are the people I rent half my rooms to for biz; so its worth my time thinking about. 20% a year for staples limits my ability to raise rents etc while my own operating costs (ie utilities) are still rising.

In Hong Kong I worry about the rising price of custard tarts.

[muchogra]

What made gold go up today as of now? There are always reasons given by people when it goes up or when it goes down. Hey, people who write make their livings from writing. Take it with a grain of salt please!

Am I glad that I had covered my short. Now I'm short on August gold and long on December and I made a solemn promise to myself that I'll let the August one expire irrespective of what it is in the interim!

[Jayman]

What made gold go up today as of now? There are always reasons given by people when it goes up or when it goes down. Hey, people who write make their livings from writing. Take it with a grain of salt please!

Am I glad that I had covered my short. Now I'm short on August gold and long on December and I made a solemn promise to myself that I'll let the August one expire irrespective of what it is in the interim!

My guess is that it's the same things that caused the EU make new highs today.