Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[cheeryble]

Been pondering playing the volatility of oil for a while

As a matter of interest mccw you probably know that to take a position in a market one has to exactly know one's advantage.

Just wondering in the big bad world of oil movements....what is your advantage over all those taking a position the other way, and why would you back yourself against them?

(ps: genuinely trying to be helpful here)

In case you are going long have you looked in depth at fracking?

Are you aware that the bubbling methane coming out of water pipes on rare occasions have on full investigation never once been associated with fracking. They have always happened historically. There simply is gas under the ground which gets into the water supply.

Edited November 28, 2012 by cheeryble

[mccw]

Been pondering playing the volatility of oil for a while

As a matter of interest mccw you probably know that to take a position in a market one has to exactly know one's advantage.

Just wondering in the big bad world of oil movements....what is your advantage over all those taking a position the other way, and why would you back yourself against them?

(ps: genuinely trying to be helpful here)

In case you are going long have you looked in depth at fracking?

Are you aware that the bubbling methane coming out of water pipes on rare occasions have on full investigation never once been associated with fracking. They have always happened historically. There simply is gas under the ground which gets into the water supply.

Hi. Basically my bets on the short term oil price would be largely political. ie anything mid to low80s I'd consider a buy and with a bit of flare up in Middle East pop it goes to 110-125 sell zone. I was thinking this a bit ago to just catch a couple of pops but think now I may of left it too late. Not because of the politics stabalising or anything, but because of the global slow down/ crunch/ potential Armageddon coming end 2013/14 having a greater effect. Maybe still time to squeeze another couple in first?

I'm aware of fracking and how gas prices have dropped through the floor in America. Much talk of building infrastructure to export. It hailed as a true revolution. But to be honest I don't buy the hype. I think alot of money got carried away with investing in it and twisted the market. The energy in out and profit margins at today's prices I expect many to go broke and the honey moon to be over before 2015. I could be totally wrong and maybe it will do great things for electricity prices for a decade or two but I still see oil as a long term bull since there is so much can be done with it which gas can not do. Oil is well past peak and the energy in out equation doesn't get any better with technology. I wouldn't by and hold right now but could be tempted to get in at 5 past big slump around 40 bucks like last time.

On the environmental side - no real baring on me, as nothing I could do about it- but I read that in the uk they suspended trail drilling in the midlands after a few unusual earthquakes around Liverpool. Plus what exactly is the stuff they use to push the gas out? Load of chemicals in the ground can't be too good for drinking water / irrigation food health etc in EU might be more difficult to get widespread take up unlike US but sure it won't stop the rest of the world.

[mccw]

On the exact words "knowing ones advantage" not sure exactly what you mean?

[Jayman]

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/14790

Paul van Eeden on Why Gold is Overvalued

TICKERS: EVM, MRO, MAD

Source: JT Long of The Gold Report (11/28/12)

Many goldbugs like gold as a hedge against Federal Reserve policies and high inflation. Paul van Eeden, president of Cranberry Capital, says he does not fear high inflation due to Fed policies. Van Eeden is a different kind of goldbug and in this interview with The Gold Report, he explains how his proprietary monetary measure, "The Actual Money Supply," is the reason why.

[mccw]

Paul talks of no inflation , "no data to suggest" it as high; but as previously shown inflation is in fact running high , only the way the statistics are compiled have made it appear low, using readily available data it can be shown that inflation of essentials in most countries is 8-10% or more by the govs own techniques from 90s or 80s and if using ones own analysis of bare essentials to live such as energy, food , then its even higher still.

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Something about inflation and money supply argument ie more money in commerce equals higher prices because more money chasing less goods. But what about less money in circulation equals even less goods = higher prices? I mean because the critical scale of production to maintain low prices can not be met! While simultaneously the total money, even though its locked up in vaults / securities, it is still getting evaluated internationally and there is potentially massive extra "supply" if those internationally held reserves were sold in to the market.

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Just because the Emir hords all the gold does not mean the price of chicken must fall to an affordable level- it just means average people won't be able to eat it and a load of chicken farmers go broke!

Similarly if the rulers had debased all their gold coin 50/50 with tungsten when he went to trade with the Nieghbouring kingdom his money would not hold the same power no mater his general population was poor or not.

[cloudhopper]

I found this a good read -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-30/gold-and-potential-dollar-endgame-part-2-paper-gold-what-it-good

[Naam]

I found this a good read -

http://www.zerohedge...ld-what-it-good

i found quite a number of facts distorted by bias, assumptions and irrelevant comparisons.

significant, in my [not so] humble view is the reference to the "World Gold Council" without using "inverted commas" or an explanation what this "council" represents respectively stands for. interesting is also the use of the "who" instead of "which" for the "council"

The World Gold Council, who has been advocating for the inclusion of gold as a high-quality liquid asset under Basel III, wanted the LBMA to help demonstrate the depth and liquidity of the gold market.

[Jayman]

http://blogs.wsj.com...ng-gold-market/

China Moves Forward in Opening Gold Market

Bloomberg

China will allow over-the-counter gold trading between banks for the first time Monday, a significant financial reform for the world’s second-largest buyer of the precious metal.

The move reflects the Chinese government’s latest effort to develop Shanghai into a major gold trading center, and mirrors similar developments in the country’s currency and oil markets.

Edited December 1, 2012 by Jayman

[cloudhopper]

i found quite a number of facts distorted by bias, assumptions and irrelevant comparisons.

It seems though that 'paper' gold, like credit money and all their derivatives, has been created and re-hypothecated at extreme and (one would think) unsustainable, multiples to the underlying collateral. The underlying collateral being the thing to ideally be in actual physical possession of, like bank notes and PM, should the day come when this mass hallucination magnificent theory of modern money proves vulnerable to mathematical certainties.

[Naam]

i found quite a number of facts distorted by bias, assumptions and irrelevant comparisons.

It seems though that 'paper' gold, like credit money and all their derivatives, has been created and re-hypothecated at extreme and (one would think) unsustainable, multiples to the underlying collateral. The underlying collateral being the thing to ideally be in actual physical possession of, like bank notes and PM, should the day come when this mass hallucination magnificent theory of modern money proves vulnerable to mathematical certainties.

CH,

i don't deny the potential danger of the potpourri you described but i see a bigger danger (for you, me and for anybody who worked hard and saved a bundle) by the implosion of highly indebted industrial countries and its results. whether banknotes and/or gold will be "life vests" remains to be seen.

[cloudhopper]

CH,

i don't deny the potential danger of the potpourri you described but i see a bigger danger (for you, me and for anybody who worked hard and saved a bundle) by the implosion of highly indebted industrial countries and its results. whether banknotes and/or gold will be "life vests" remains to be seen.

Yeah and the capacity of desperate governments to change the rules should not be underestimated when considering the possible outcomes and their countermeasures...

Did you ever envision TARP, the suspension of standard accounting practices or QE even 10 years ago? I sure never thought it would happen.

[Naam]

CH,

i don't deny the potential danger of the potpourri you described but i see a bigger danger (for you, me and for anybody who worked hard and saved a bundle) by the implosion of highly indebted industrial countries and its results. whether banknotes and/or gold will be "life vests" remains to be seen.

Yeah and the capacity of desperate governments to change the rules should not be underestimated when considering the possible outcomes and their countermeasures...

Did you ever envision TARP, the suspension of standard accounting practices or QE even 10 years ago? I sure never thought it would happen.

less than 10 years ago i was dreaming liquidating 90% of my paper assets into cash, leading a more relaxed life by putting the cash in different currencies at 4% on overnight rates which would enable me to switch currencies in no time and use 10% of the proceeds to gamble with high yield / high risk assets.

little did i know! i never expected that major currencies will yield zero when placed on overnight or a pittance even when placed in fixed deposits. instead of a relaxed life the rat race to accumulate more "reserves" should Armageddon happen has become even more hectic and the stakes/risks have risen.

and if somebody had told me 10 years ago not to hold too much cash in a single bank i would have smiled. no smiles anymore. the crooks are all over. not only in financial institutions but also in governments. look what happened to the poor àssholes creditors who held Greek government bonds and who were told by the Troika (ECB, IMF, EU et al) "sorry chaps, your bonds were mandatory tendered by your banks. now shut up and take the 70% loss gallantly!"

[Naam]

Cloudhopper,

remember when i told you more than a year ago in a private message about a potential German law concerning bank lockers and their contents? at that time is was all "secret" and rumours. now the cat is out of the bag. the law will soon be passed by the parliament and another related law is already in effect, namely a central register of each and every bank locker with the names of its beneficaries respectively the names of the persons who hold power of attorney to handle the locker.

[mccw]

How much gold does one need?

http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/80075/jeff-clark

[cloudhopper]

How much gold does one need?

http://www.peakprosp...0075/jeff-clark

Well IMO this article is terrible and its author does not have a clue about the nature of inflation, gold or the scenarios where it would be useful.

[Naam]

i am very grateful that Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst at Casey Research, where he serves as editor of their Big Gold newsletter revealed how many ounces of Gold i need for my remaining statistical lifetime assuming that "high inflation" starts tomorrow and lasts till they carry me to the crematorium.

to be on the safe side i need to spend "only" 2,294,804 Dollars and 80 Cents to top up our existing ounces (assuming that Mrs Naam agrees that we sell any Gold ever... which i doubt)

[Naam]

How much gold does one need?

http://www.peakprosp...0075/jeff-clark

Well IMO this article is terrible and its author does not have a clue about the nature of inflation, gold or the scenarios where it would be useful.

how dare you?!

[muchogra]

Is gold going nowhere that this thread has stopped?

Where are the gold buffs?

Somewhere in the news, they do survey of some 20 people or so, presumably professionals. When majority says it'll be up next week, it's high percentage that it's the opposite. That's the guideline for ins and outs. Reading too much is hazardous. Sure, gold in the long term is good - that is, before you hit the bucket. I have gold in my safe deposit boxes and at homes and it hasn't done anything for me!

[falkan]

who is buying in again? ฿24000 in two weeks =)?

Edited December 4, 2012 by falkan

[cheeryble]

Is gold going nowhere that this thread has stopped?

Where are the gold buffs?

Somewhere in the news, they do survey of some 20 people or so, presumably professionals. When majority says it'll be up next week, it's high percentage that it's the opposite. That's the guideline for ins and outs. Reading too much is hazardous. Sure, gold in the long term is good - that is, before you hit the bucket. I have gold in my safe deposit boxes and at homes and it hasn't done anything for me!

......you never did mention where you live?

Edited December 4, 2012 by cheeryble

[binjalin]

who is buying in again? ฿24000 in two weeks =)?

time to buy? or wait?

[binjalin]

http://blogs.wsj.com...ng-gold-market/

China Moves Forward in Opening Gold Market

Bloomberg

China will allow over-the-counter gold trading between banks for the first time Monday, a significant financial reform for the world’s second-largest buyer of the precious metal.

The move reflects the Chinese government’s latest effort to develop Shanghai into a major gold trading center, and mirrors similar developments in the country’s currency and oil markets.

presumably this will lead to shortage and gold spike?

[Naam]

http://blogs.wsj.com...ng-gold-market/

China Moves Forward in Opening Gold Market

Bloomberg

China will allow over-the-counter gold trading between banks for the first time Monday, a significant financial reform for the world’s second-largest buyer of the precious metal.

The move reflects the Chinese government’s latest effort to develop Shanghai into a major gold trading center, and mirrors similar developments in the country’s currency and oil markets.

presumably this will lead to shortage and gold spike?

yes, it will. then there is the Hindu auspicious marriage season starting soon (in about 11 months), the central banks left, right, up, down, back and forward which have nothing else in mind than to increase their gold holdings. front runners are the U.S. of A. and Germany because their Gold is gone. learned eggsbirds claim the Gold was "stoled" from Fort Knox.

[binjalin]

http://blogs.wsj.com...ng-gold-market/

China Moves Forward in Opening Gold Market

Bloomberg

China will allow over-the-counter gold trading between banks for the first time Monday, a significant financial reform for the world’s second-largest buyer of the precious metal.

The move reflects the Chinese government’s latest effort to develop Shanghai into a major gold trading center, and mirrors similar developments in the country’s currency and oil markets.

presumably this will lead to shortage and gold spike?

yes, it will. then there is the Hindu auspicious marriage season starting soon (in about 11 months), the central banks left, right, up, down, back and forward which have nothing else in mind than to increase their gold holdings. front runners are the U.S. of A. and Germany because their Gold is gone. learned eggsbirds claim the Gold was "stoled" from Fort Knox.

hmmm funny - but I was a bit serious because presumably if the Chinese are now allowed to buy 'over the counter' there 'could' be domestic shortage in China which 'could' lead to a spike - imagine tons of wealthy Chinese buying up Au? no?

[Naam]

hmmm funny - but I was a bit serious because presumably if the Chinese are now allowed to buy 'over the counter' there 'could' be domestic shortage in China which 'could' lead to a spike - imagine tons of wealthy Chinese buying up Au? no?

funny is the fairy tale that there is a gold shortage in China, that Chinese were not allowed to buy OTC and that these restrictions were lifted.

restrictions exist since 1984 on exports of gold and silver (including jewelry) from China which were paid for in domestic currency.

[binjalin]

hmmm funny - but I was a bit serious because presumably if the Chinese are now allowed to buy 'over the counter' there 'could' be domestic shortage in China which 'could' lead to a spike - imagine tons of wealthy Chinese buying up Au? no?

funny is the fairy tale that there is a gold shortage in China, that Chinese were not allowed to buy OTC and that these restrictions were lifted.

restrictions exist since 1984 on exports of gold and silver (including jewelry) from China which were paid for in domestic currency.

thus had I heard (on this thread) - ok if not true not true

[Naam]

thus had I heard (on this thread)...

Edited December 5, 2012 by Naam

[Jayman]

presumably this will lead to shortage and gold spike?

the story as written says

“From a government perspective, gold is seen as currency, and the government is slowly releasing the controls on currency. We expect the [gold] market will be opened up to more foreign banks,” he said.

Given their trading volumes, Chinese banks already play a significant role in determining international gold prices, so the move will have a limited impact on prices, Mr. East said.

China offers a massive gold market, albeit one that is tightly controlled. The country is the world’s biggest gold producer and ranked as the No. 2 gold consumer in the third quarter of this year. It has official gold reserves of 1,054 metric tons, the world’s sixth-largest, World Gold Council data show. But gold exports are banned and only a handful of banks hold import licenses.

Until now, member banks have been able to trade physical gold between themselves on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, but the absence of an over-the-counter market restricted them from becoming market makers in gold. In an over-the-counter market, transactions are quoted and conducted between parties on a principal-to-principal basis rather than being traded through a broker on an exchange.

[mccw]

http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/CheviotLetter-11-29-2012.png

[Jayman]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/05/korea-economy-reserves-idUSL4N...

SEOUL, South Korea -- South Korea's central bank said on Wednesday it bought 14 tonnes of gold in November using its foreign reserves in order to spread its portfolio risks, while releasing data showing total reserves rose after talk of market intervention.

The Bank of Korea bought the gold for $780 million, the fourth purchase in about 1 1/2 years, lifting the proportion of gold in its total foreign reserves to 1.2 percent from the previous 0.9 percent, it said in a statement.

"Gold is a physical, safe asset and allows" the country "to deal with changes in the international financial environment more effectively," it said in a statement, without providing more details on the purchase.