Naam Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Deutsche Bank - Fixed Income Research - Europe Credit Outlook 2012 : Think the (even more) unthinkable...? Last year's 2011 outlook entitled "Think the Unthinkable" (December 8th 2010) raised the prospects of upcoming restructurings, defaults, haircuts, full fiscal European union or extreme levels of money printing. In many ways, we could copy much of our analysis for our 2012 Outlook as our views remain similar. However, the one difference is that the stakes have become far higher 12 months on. It's not inconceivable that 2012 could go down in the history books as the year the Euro broke up or at least moved much closer to it. In anything resembling a free market this would have already happened. The alternative scenario is that 2012 sees the ECB's balance sheet expand dramatically to accommodate the extraordinary debt levels that the free market has limited appetite re-financing. We don't think the latest EU summit is a game changer and market pressure may build ahead of a challenging Q1 redemption schedule for Euro sovereigns and banks. We think this may force a reluctant ECB to become more aggressive early in the year. The market may then start to become slightly more relaxed about the stresses in the system. However, we think the widespread austerity will mean that the European recession intensifies as 2012 progresses. Our shorter cycle theory has always targeted 2012 as a recession year and more worryingly the parallels to the 1930s are building. The longer a country stayed on Gold in the 1930s, the longer it took for its economy to pass its 1929 activity peak. If we're correct, by the time we enter H2, the market might start to widen aggressively as it may conclude that austerity is making it harder for countries to grow out of their debt burden. There may then be doubts over the domestic willingness to continue to pursue such policies and whether the ECB has the mandate or the desire to again step up purchases by enough to arrest the declines without some kind of dramatic ECB treaty change or cast iron move towards a fiscal European union. The good news is that non-financial credit, especially investment grade, remains a relative safe haven even if it won't be immune from widening in 2012. Unfortunately the same cannot really be said about financials who face three main challenges - long-term funding, liquidity and capitalisation. Without the authorities and particular the central banks continuing to back stop the sector, bond holders could still face huge losses, even from current stressed and distressed levels. So, overall the message is similar to last year's. By the second half of 2012 we think all outcomes will again be back on the table. Restructurings, defaults, haircuts, full fiscal European union or extreme levels of money printing will all be possibilities. It might be that unless the ECB has bought somewhere close to an extra trillion Euros of European Government bonds by the time we write 2013's outlook, we may be seeing the endgame of 'thinking the unthinkable'. Even if they have, we think this crisis may still continue to run and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Enough with the wild conspiracy theories. Finally, some straight talk about the FED. http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fed-bashing-gone-wild/2011/12/09/gIQA6sMDoO_story.html Although it helped save the economy from a deeper collapse :lol: Similar to the time you thanks Obama & Timmy G for saving us :lol: They help cause the problem....Then make it worse & kick the ever increasing in size can down the road & we are suppose to thank them now? Abolish the FED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackJack Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 or extreme levels of money printing will all be possibilities. my bet is that they will change the rules and start QE EU 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronz28 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 (edited) Kyle Bass CNBC video on European doomsday machine regarding the European bills that are due but no country can pay: http://www.cnbc.com/id/45669180 and his recent market letter: http://www.scribd.co...screen/74335711 Hypothecation license to steal http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuters.com/Securities/Insight/2011/12_-_December/MF_Global_and_the_great_Wall_St_re-hypothecation_scandal/ Edited December 14, 2011 by ronz28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midas Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Enough with the wild conspiracy theories. Finally, some straight talk about the FED. http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fed-bashing-gone-wild/2011/12/09/gIQA6sMDoO_story.html Although it helped save the economy from a deeper collapse :lol: Similar to the time you thanks Obama & Timmy G for saving us :lol: They help cause the problem....Then make it worse & kick the ever increasing in size can down the road & we are suppose to thank them now? Abolish the FED and have you noticed Robert J. Samuelson's fellow contributors to the Jewish World Review don't have a single bad word to say about the Fed either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mosha Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 JFK did and look what happened to him a few months later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midas Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Christine Lagarde: IMF Boss Says Gloomy Times Ahead And Every Economy Is At Risk " Speaking on Thursday Legarde said: "There is no economy in the world, whether low-income countries, emerging markets, middle-income countries or super-advanced economies that will be immune to the crisis that we see not only unfolding but escalating," http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/12/15/christine-lagarde-imf-gloomy_n_1151977.html?1323983616&ref=uk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waza Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lovetotravel Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Maybe some justice is being dealt out? http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/16/news/companies/fannie_freddie_sec/index.htm?iid=HP_LN NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission charged six former executives of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with securities fraud on Friday for misrepresenting their holdings of high-risk mortgage loans.The SEC is targeting three former executives of Freddie Mac (FMCC, Fortune 500), including chief executive officer Daniel Mudd, chief risk officer Enrico Dallavecchia and executive vice president of single-family mortgage business Thomas Lund. The agency is also going after three former executives of Fannie Mae (FNMA, Fortune 500): CEO Richard Syron, executive vice president and chief business officer Patricia Cook and executive vice president for the single family guarantee business Donald Bisenius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackJack Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 well worth a look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackJack Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 JP MORGAN at it again We had a COMEX system failure in November. COMEX was ready to default on gold and silver in November. Rather than honor delivery demands in gold and silver- JP Morgan simply stole the money in the accounts that were going to stand for delivery. They had their pockets picked while they were standing in line at the delivery window. Notices of delivery were replaced at stolen accounts! JP Morgan averted both a COMEX default and a European sovereign debt implosion, and notice that JP Morgan increased the amount of silver in their registered vaults by precisely the amount that was supposed to be delivered! If JP Morgan can steal 140,000 futures accounts, what's to stop 250,000 MUTUAL FUND ACCOUNTS FROM BEING STOLEN!?! The Fed was staring at 20 Lehmans in Europe!! 20 Lehmans almost happened, and the fed rushed in, lowered interest rates for banks. If there is another big implosion and there is another string of contagion and big banks are dead in the morning, don't expect there to be any money in the accounts in the morning. What will JP and Sachs come up with next is there no stopping them? Looks like S&P will still downgrade countries and banks next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lovetotravel Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 JP MORGAN at it again We had a COMEX system failure in November. COMEX was ready to default on gold and silver in November. Rather than honor delivery demands in gold and silver- JP Morgan simply stole the money in the accounts that were going to stand for delivery. They had their pockets picked while they were standing in line at the delivery window. Notices of delivery were replaced at stolen accounts! JP Morgan averted both a COMEX default and a European sovereign debt implosion, and notice that JP Morgan increased the amount of silver in their registered vaults by precisely the amount that was supposed to be delivered! If JP Morgan can steal 140,000 futures accounts, what's to stop 250,000 MUTUAL FUND ACCOUNTS FROM BEING STOLEN!?! The Fed was staring at 20 Lehmans in Europe!! 20 Lehmans almost happened, and the fed rushed in, lowered interest rates for banks. If there is another big implosion and there is another string of contagion and big banks are dead in the morning, don't expect there to be any money in the accounts in the morning. What will JP and Sachs come up with next is there no stopping them? Looks like S&P will still downgrade countries and banks next week If you are quoting from internet sources, please include a link. it's only fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackJack Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 JP MORGAN at it again We had a COMEX system failure in November. COMEX was ready to default on gold and silver in November. Rather than honor delivery demands in gold and silver- JP Morgan simply stole the money in the accounts that were going to stand for delivery. They had their pockets picked while they were standing in line at the delivery window. Notices of delivery were replaced at stolen accounts! JP Morgan averted both a COMEX default and a European sovereign debt implosion, and notice that JP Morgan increased the amount of silver in their registered vaults by precisely the amount that was supposed to be delivered! If JP Morgan can steal 140,000 futures accounts, what's to stop 250,000 MUTUAL FUND ACCOUNTS FROM BEING STOLEN!?! The Fed was staring at 20 Lehmans in Europe!! 20 Lehmans almost happened, and the fed rushed in, lowered interest rates for banks. If there is another big implosion and there is another string of contagion and big banks are dead in the morning, don't expect there to be any money in the accounts in the morning. What will JP and Sachs come up with next is there no stopping them? Looks like S&P will still downgrade countries and banks next week If you are quoting from internet sources, please include a link. it's only fair. u work for JP do you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 If JP Morgan can steal 140000 futures accounts... http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=If+JP+Morgan+can+steal+140%2C000+futures+accounts%2C+what's+to+stop+250%2C000+MUTUAL+FUND+ACCOUNTS+FROM+BEING+STOLEN!%3F!&hl=en&num=10&lr=&ft=i&cr=&safe=images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12DrinkMore Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 MF Global and more.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLt05sN7vK0&feature=player_embedded#! We are not out of this by any means..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccw Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 MF Global and more.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLt05sN7vK0&feature=player_embedded#! We are not out of this by any means..... Great video. I wonder; who is it that's issuing the insurance/ credit default swaps? Ie who would be paying out in the event of crash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midas Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 (edited) MF Global and more.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLt05sN7vK0&feature=player_embedded#! We are not out of this by any means..... Great video. I wonder; who is it that's issuing the insurance/ credit default swaps? Ie who would be paying out in the event of crash? and here is more .....this is like watching a documentary on " The Mob " Edited December 19, 2011 by midas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigt3365 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 JP MORGAN at it again We had a COMEX system failure in November. COMEX was ready to default on gold and silver in November. Rather than honor delivery demands in gold and silver- JP Morgan simply stole the money in the accounts that were going to stand for delivery. They had their pockets picked while they were standing in line at the delivery window. Notices of delivery were replaced at stolen accounts! JP Morgan averted both a COMEX default and a European sovereign debt implosion, and notice that JP Morgan increased the amount of silver in their registered vaults by precisely the amount that was supposed to be delivered! If JP Morgan can steal 140,000 futures accounts, what's to stop 250,000 MUTUAL FUND ACCOUNTS FROM BEING STOLEN!?! The Fed was staring at 20 Lehmans in Europe!! 20 Lehmans almost happened, and the fed rushed in, lowered interest rates for banks. If there is another big implosion and there is another string of contagion and big banks are dead in the morning, don't expect there to be any money in the accounts in the morning. What will JP and Sachs come up with next is there no stopping them? Looks like S&P will still downgrade countries and banks next week If you are quoting from internet sources, please include a link. it's only fair. u work for JP do you You've been around long enough to know about fair use policies on Thaivisa.com, and the internet in general. If you are quoting from a source with a copyright, you need to provide the link and quote only the first 2 or 3 sentences. No more. Your post came up with so many hits, it's hard to say what the source is????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lovetotravel Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 MF Global and more.... http://www.youtube.c...ayer_embedded#! We are not out of this by any means..... Fantastic video....unfricking real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronz28 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Role of Rehypothecation in the shadow banking system. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/the-sizable-role-of-rehypothecation-in-the-shadow-banking-system-2/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fletchsmile Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 (edited) At least I think I understand David Cameron a lot better now...and his attitude towards Merkosy and co. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=_AumxDdL4Co Edited December 19, 2011 by fletchsmile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 At least I think I understand David Cameron a lot better now...and his attitude towards Merkosy and co. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=_AumxDdL4Co Some posts should come with a warning about clicking links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackJack Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 JP MORGAN at it again We had a COMEX system failure in November. COMEX was ready to default on gold and silver in November. Rather than honor delivery demands in gold and silver- JP Morgan simply stole the money in the accounts that were going to stand for delivery. They had their pockets picked while they were standing in line at the delivery window. Notices of delivery were replaced at stolen accounts! JP Morgan averted both a COMEX default and a European sovereign debt implosion, and notice that JP Morgan increased the amount of silver in their registered vaults by precisely the amount that was supposed to be delivered! If JP Morgan can steal 140,000 futures accounts, what's to stop 250,000 MUTUAL FUND ACCOUNTS FROM BEING STOLEN!?! The Fed was staring at 20 Lehmans in Europe!! 20 Lehmans almost happened, and the fed rushed in, lowered interest rates for banks. If there is another big implosion and there is another string of contagion and big banks are dead in the morning, don't expect there to be any money in the accounts in the morning. What will JP and Sachs come up with next is there no stopping them? Looks like S&P will still downgrade countries and banks next week If you are quoting from internet sources, please include a link. it's only fair. u work for JP do you You've been around long enough to know about fair use policies on Thaivisa.com, and the internet in general. If you are quoting from a source with a copyright, you need to provide the link and quote only the first 2 or 3 sentences. No more. Your post came up with so many hits, it's hard to say what the source is????? its on several sources http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/12.11/implosion.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fletchsmile Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 At least I think I understand David Cameron a lot better now...and his attitude towards Merkosy and co. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=_AumxDdL4Co Some posts should come with a warning about clicking links. Probably true - unless you're German and use to that sort of thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fletchsmile Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 (edited) Great news on Jefferies today. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-20/jefferies-profit-drops-23-as-revenue-falls.html I'm not that positive about the US stock market, but in a few years from now I think people will look back and realise how cheap the financial institutions that might have survived are. I took a small position in Nov on each of JPM, MS and Jefferies, as they look overly beat up to me. JPM and MS have fared OK, but JEF looked like there was a risk of it tanking completely. JPM and MS are still on trailing P/Es of only around 6. Sure there'll be a roller coaster of a ride and there's some large risks, but providing you can tolerate the possible losses they're interesting. Having bought in just over 12 on JEF, was nice to see them above 14 today, after seeing my trade (or should I say in this case "bet") down 20% at one point and a downward spiral below 10 not long after buying + a few weeks in the red Kudos to Richard Handler in the way he's handled the sh*ts spreading misinformation and shorting the company. His openness and transparency were a key reason for buying for me. Also highlights that in my view the time has come to phase out short selling on individual equity stocks. This one sailed very close to the wind, and could even have gone under due to all the malicious rumours and lies spread. One of the biggest problems with the US markets is that traders with significant clout have realised it's easier for them to make money out of wrongfully destroying businesses, than it is to constructively do something or get things right. Anyone can spread lies, rumours and destroy, it takes more to properly analyse businesses and help them constructively go somewhere. In the US it's not just the financial markets though, there are leeches throughout society making more on destruction, lies, rumours, litigation, which are going to be a major drag on the economy actually growing and going anywhere. Sad to say Europe and UK isn't far behind. The media likewise seems to thrive on putting people down. If the west is to go anywhere it needs to reward the positives and positive behaviour, and stop people making money from negative actions. Ending on a positive - nice to see the company coming thru, with a decent CEO, and respectable results today Edited December 20, 2011 by fletchsmile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12DrinkMore Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 I wonder; who is it that's issuing the insurance/ credit default swaps? Ie who would be paying out in the event of crash? You already know the answer. Take a glance in the mirror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 If JP Morgan can steal 140,000 futures accounts... then investors think JPM is a good company and that must be the reason why its stock went up 5% in yesterday's trading session. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midas Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 If JP Morgan can steal 140,000 futures accounts... then investors think JPM is a good company and that must be the reason why its stock went up 5% in yesterday's trading session. but not without smoking something first " JPMorgan faces about $31 billion in class-action cases, according to McCarthy Lawyer Links, a legal consulting firm. The potential dollar cost of the mortgage mess has kept growing this year; many analysts estimate it may be more than $100 billion for the industry. But as a team of bank analysts at FBR, a firm in Arlington, Va., put it in a report that estimated the liabilities: “Does anyone really know?” " http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/17/business/economy/investors-scrutinizing-jpmorgans-mortgage-bonds.html?_r=2&source=patrick.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 If JP Morgan can steal 140,000 futures accounts... then investors think JPM is a good company and that must be the reason why its stock went up 5% in yesterday's trading session. but not without smoking something first so what? here's a pragmatic view: a million dollars invested in JPM stock on monday raked in profits yesterday to buy today 31 ounces of gold equivalent to 4 years salary of a Farang teacher in Thailand or 67,000 bottles of Chang bought in a supermarket.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lovetotravel Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Seems MF Global has found $700M??? http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/21/news/companies/mf_global_uk/index.htm?iid=HP_LN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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