Reform UK has achieved a significant milestone by surpassing the Conservatives in an opinion poll for the first time, marking a pivotal moment in British politics. According to a YouGov survey, Nigel Farage’s party is now at 19 percent, edging past the Conservatives, who are at 18 percent. Labour remains the frontrunner with 37 percent, maintaining an 18-point lead, while the Liberal Democrats trail in fourth place at 14 percent.

 

This unprecedented shift in the political landscape has prompted Farage to declare, “We are now the opposition.” The survey results came in the wake of the Tory manifesto launch, highlighting the growing concern among Conservative MPs and strategists about a potential "crossover moment" in the polls—a fear that has now materialized with Farage’s return to frontline politics and his takeover from Richard Tice as Reform leader.

 

In a statement, Farage expressed his confidence, saying, “We have now overtaken the Conservatives, we’re in second position in the country. In fact, we’re leading the Conservative Party in every single region apart from Scotland. This is the inflection point. The only wasted vote now is a Conservative vote. We are the challengers to Labour and we’re on our way.”

 

During a seven-way election debate on ITV, Farage emphasized the significance of the poll results: “Just before we came on air, we overtook the Conservatives in a national opinion poll. We are now the opposition to Labour.” His comments came in response to accusations from Penny Mordaunt, the Tory House of Commons leader, who labeled Farage a “Labour enabler.” Farage rebutted, “As for being the Labour enabler, we are now ahead of you in the national polls. A vote for you is actually now a vote for Labour.”

 

 

Mr. Tice, Reform’s chairman, expressed his satisfaction with the poll results, stating, “We’re absolutely delighted and YouGov is the gold standard of pollsters. We think they’ve been closest to our real support. And the direction of travel is that we’re heading north and the Tories are heading south. The people’s revolt is just gathering momentum.”

 

Reform UK's campaign strategy is set to intensify as Farage prepares to launch the party’s manifesto in the Welsh valleys, targeting Labour strongholds. Farage believes that Reform can capture seats from Labour in Wales, a region that voted strongly to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum. He argues that working-class communities in Wales have been neglected by Westminster since devolution and poorly served by the Labour-controlled Welsh Assembly.

 

 

The Reform manifesto will not only critique the Conservative government but also highlight what it describes as “the disaster of the devolved Labour government in a left behind part of the country.” The party aims to resonate with voters disillusioned with both major parties, capitalizing on the frustration felt in regions like South Wales, where many former mining communities voted Leave in 2016.

 

The Conservative campaign, meanwhile, has faced multiple setbacks. Recently, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had to apologize for leaving D-Day commemorations in Normandy early. Additionally, Sunak was embroiled in controversy after one of his aides placed a £100 bet on a July election just days before the Prime Minister announced it would take place on July 4, leading to an investigation by the Gambling Commission.

 

Lee Anderson, a former deputy chairman of the Conservative Party who defected to Reform in February, remarked on the poll results: “It’s happened, the crossover has actually happened. We are now polling ahead of the Conservative Party. Vote Conservative, get Labour.” A Tory MP from a marginal Red Wall constituency commented, “This is what happens when you fail to deliver on immigration.”

 

Reform’s surge in support since Farage’s return has caught Tory strategists off guard. A YouGov survey conducted just before Farage announced his comeback had Reform at 10 percent and the Tories comfortably in second place at 25 percent. Farage’s return to leadership has nearly doubled Reform's polling figures, disrupting the Conservatives’ election strategy.

 

Andrew Wells, head of European political and social research at YouGov, noted the significance of the poll: “Obviously all polls have a margin of error, so we can’t conclude for certain that more voters now back Nigel Farage’s party over the Conservatives. But what it does make clear is that at the very least the Conservatives and Reform are at a very similar level of support to each other. That in itself is remarkable given how close we are to an election when we might otherwise have expected smaller parties’ votes to be squeezed.”

 

Despite the poll’s implications, some Conservative figures remain skeptical. David Davis, the former Conservative Brexit secretary, urged voters to be cautious about poll results: “On the doorstep in my constituency, I don’t see it. I’m sure the polls are right today. But the other thing I know from my 10 different campaigns is the polls are always off. There’s only one opinion poll that’s not off and it’s the one they take as people come out of the polling station. All the others are off by between 6 and 20 percent.”

 

The Conservative Party’s warnings about a potential Labour super-majority have been highlighted in their social media campaigns, suggesting that the party could be reduced to a rump of just 57 seats, with the Liberal Democrats potentially overtaking them as the largest opposition party. As the political landscape shifts, the upcoming election promises to be a defining moment for all parties involved.

 

Credit: Daily Telegraph 2024-06-15

 

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It’s an ‘outlier’ result following the introduction by YouGov of a new methodology.

 

The polling averages and polling trends are a better indicator and at this stage MRP polls are probably the most reliable.

 

I don’t think it’s anywhere near indicative of actual voting intention, but if it further panics the Tories it’ll do for now.

 

 

...meanwhile in other news, the last genuine British Conservative leader is reportedly spinning in her grave at the debacle of a joke her party has become, and the decline of Britain into a banana republic. So much for Rule Britannia - the Britons have been enslaved.

 

R.I.P Maggie Thatcher.

I love a Nationalist !

God save Monsieur  Farage

Nationalism and associated divisive politics has never had a happy ending. Farage is yet another revolting sycophant of trump. This is the eight time Farage has tried to get elected as an MP - I sincerely wish he fails again.

14 minutes ago, simple1 said:

Farage is yet another revolting sycophant of trump.

 

I hope that both Farage and Trump become the leaders of their respective countries...they can hardly be any worse than the incumbents...marching us blindly to WWIII  after lurching from crises to crises

starting with bailing out the bankers and gone downhill from there.

1 hour ago, Gsxrnz said:

R.I.P Maggie Thatcher.

 

I didn't like Thatcher's policies but at least she had a vision and was a strong leader..nothing like the wishy washies in Parliament now days  with a few exceptions.

4 minutes ago, johng said:

 

I hope that both Farage and Trump become the leaders of their respective countries...they can hardly be any worse than the incumbents...marching us blindly to WWIII  after lurching from crises to crises

starting with bailing out the bankers and gone downhill from there.

Brilliantly executed 

I think what we are about to witness next month is just how broken democracy is in the UK.  What may come to pass is that Reform receive 20 something percent of the vote, with Labour (probably) receiving 30 something percent of the vote in what is likely to be the lowest turnout ever by voters in a General election.   From this Labour will most likely have 400+ seats, the Tories (with a lower vote count than Reform) will get 100ish seats and Reform will get only 1 or 2 seats.  

 

No doubt all those that were complaining about the Brexit vote being illegitimate based on the fact that the majority of the electorate did not vote for it will be completely silent on the fact that Labour are heading for a super majority and will be able to make sweeping socialist changes despite not really having the mandate from the majority of the electorate to do so, nor indeed having the kind of support for Labour that Tony Blair received.  

 

Labour will then use this majority to engage in gerrymandering and allow 16 year olds to vote (whilst at the same time banning 16 year olds from buying energy drinks) to ensure that there is as much chance of Labour losing the next election in the UK as there is of Putin losing an election in Russia.   

1 hour ago, James105 said:

I think what we are about to witness next month is just how broken democracy is in the UK.  What may come to pass is that Reform receive 20 something percent of the vote, with Labour (probably) receiving 30 something percent of the vote in what is likely to be the lowest turnout ever by voters in a General election.   From this Labour will most likely have 400+ seats, the Tories (with a lower vote count than Reform) will get 100ish seats and Reform will get only 1 or 2 seats.  

 

No doubt all those that were complaining about the Brexit vote being illegitimate based on the fact that the majority of the electorate did not vote for it will be completely silent on the fact that Labour are heading for a super majority and will be able to make sweeping socialist changes despite not really having the mandate from the majority of the electorate to do so, nor indeed having the kind of support for Labour that Tony Blair received.  

 

Labour will then use this majority to engage in gerrymandering and allow 16 year olds to vote (whilst at the same time banning 16 year olds from buying energy drinks) to ensure that there is as much chance of Labour losing the next election in the UK as there is of Putin losing an election in Russia.   

You are making a great argument for proportional representation, which would ensure the Tories never again regain power.

Wait till the muslims form their own political party.  Adios England.

2 minutes ago, koolkarl said:

Wait till the muslims form their own political party.  Adios England.

Triggered ?!

3 hours ago, simple1 said:

Nationalism and associated divisive politics has never had a happy ending. Farage is yet another revolting sycophant of trump. This is the eight time Farage has tried to get elected as an MP - I sincerely wish he fails again.

Tripe. People say all that but the bloke speaks a lot of sense... certainly can't do any worse than the wishy washy donkeys that have been running things into the ground and couldn't give a flying one about the average Joe. 

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

You are making a great argument for proportional representation, which would ensure the Tories never again regain power.

 

The 2 establishment parties no longer represent the people of the UK and represent their own interests.  If proportional representation prevents them from following the WEF agenda of "you will own nothing and be happy" then maybe it is time for PR but it's too late if Labour get a super majority.   Can you see your Labour party implementing something like PR when this would obviously prevent them from winning so many seats?   To do so would mean doing something in the interests of "the people" rather than the interests of "the party" so its pretty obvious it will not happen.   

This is likely as good as it gets for Reform. Nigel Farage dips in and out of politics when it suits and him and his fellow prospective MPs have little to zero experience of governing.

It is telling that the senior Tories who are being talked about as jumping accross to Reform are the very ones who got the UK into its current mess in the first place - Suella Braverman being the prime example.

The Tories will have to move back to the centre of the political spectrum if they want to win back favour with the electorate and when they do Reform will return to being marginalised and less relevant.

The majority of the UK electorate does not entertain extreme right or left wing dogma; never has and never will. In the late 80s and early 90s Labour rid itself of extreme left wingers and won 3 straight general elections. They are purging the left wing of the party now (still a work in progress) and Starmer appeals to the centre ground where the undecided voters sit.

The Tories will have to rid itself of their right wing idealogues if they want to return to becoming electable.

6 hours ago, Gsxrnz said:

...meanwhile in other news, the last genuine British Conservative leader is reportedly spinning in her grave at the debacle of a joke her party has become, and the decline of Britain into a banana republic. So much for Rule Britannia - the Britons have been enslaved.

 

R.I.P Maggie Thatcher.

Yes. Rust in Purgatory.

1 hour ago, daveAustin said:

Tripe. People say all that but the bloke speaks a lot of sense... certainly can't do any worse than the wishy washy donkeys that have been running things into the ground and couldn't give a flying one about the average Joe. 

Nah. Farridge don't speak a lot of sense.

He spews out platitudes which are gobbled up by a minority of the electorate....Sun, Wail, Express readers and compounded in Weatherspews.

Good job Weatherspews exist so that we know where to avoid ignorant right wing bigots.

24 minutes ago, Red Forever said:

He spews out platitudes which are gobbled up by a minority of the electorate

 

You spelt majority wrong.

 

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/immigration-tracker-march-2024

 

 

3 hours ago, koolkarl said:

Wait till the muslims form their own political party.  Adios England.

Already happened in a sneaky way . They have taken many large UK cities as Mayors and have a big influence on how their cities are run . 

3 hours ago, James105 said:

 

The 2 establishment parties no longer represent the people of the UK and represent their own interests.  If proportional representation prevents them from following the WEF agenda of "you will own nothing and be happy" then maybe it is time for PR but it's too late if Labour get a super majority.   Can you see your Labour party implementing something like PR when this would obviously prevent them from winning so many seats?   To do so would mean doing something in the interests of "the people" rather than the interests of "the party" so its pretty obvious it will not happen.   

Lol, blaming labour for something they may not do in the next years. How about looking at why it didn't happen in recent history and who is to blame for that?

4 hours ago, daveAustin said:

Tripe. People say all that but the bloke speaks a lot of sense... certainly can't do any worse than the wishy washy donkeys that have been running things into the ground and couldn't give a flying one about the average Joe. 

In the same tone as your post. "Tripe", the guy is a bottom feeder.

Nice one Nige.

 

About the only politician in Britain who can read the room.

 

The left are bricking it. 

 

 

11 hours ago, daveAustin said:

Tripe. People say all that but the bloke speaks a lot of sense... certainly can't do any worse than the wishy washy donkeys that have been running things into the ground and couldn't give a flying one about the average Joe. 

Do you mean when he campaigned champing all the benefits that would happen with Brexit? Well the latest poll I found states 31% are happy with Brexit.                                     https://www.statista.com/statistics/987347/brexit-opinion-poll/.             How about when he cheered on the Liz Truss budget that almost tanked the UK economy? Old Nig seems to always be on the wrong side of history

 

Edited June 15, 20242 yr by pegman

Latest survey, Reform 7 seats

1 hour ago, scubascuba3 said:

Latest survey, Reform 7 seats

I just hope George Galloway's Workers Party of Britain takes more seats. The best quote of the election so far was on a conservative leaning TV show were one of the commentators stated "Had George Galloway been at the 7 party debate he would've mopped the floor with the bunch of them."

On 6/14/2024 at 1:34 PM, Social Media said:

 

Reform UK has achieved a significant milestone by surpassing the Conservatives in an opinion poll for the first time, marking a pivotal moment in British politics. According to a YouGov survey, Nigel Farage’s party is now at 19 percent, edging past the Conservatives, who are at 18 percent. Labour remains the frontrunner with 37 percent, maintaining an 18-point lead, while the Liberal Democrats trail in fourth place at 14 percent.

 

This unprecedented shift in the political landscape has prompted Farage to declare, “We are now the opposition.” The survey results came in the wake of the Tory manifesto launch, highlighting the growing concern among Conservative MPs and strategists about a potential "crossover moment" in the polls—a fear that has now materialized with Farage’s return to frontline politics and his takeover from Richard Tice as Reform leader.

 

In a statement, Farage expressed his confidence, saying, “We have now overtaken the Conservatives, we’re in second position in the country. In fact, we’re leading the Conservative Party in every single region apart from Scotland. This is the inflection point. The only wasted vote now is a Conservative vote. We are the challengers to Labour and we’re on our way.”

 

During a seven-way election debate on ITV, Farage emphasized the significance of the poll results: “Just before we came on air, we overtook the Conservatives in a national opinion poll. We are now the opposition to Labour.” His comments came in response to accusations from Penny Mordaunt, the Tory House of Commons leader, who labeled Farage a “Labour enabler.” Farage rebutted, “As for being the Labour enabler, we are now ahead of you in the national polls. A vote for you is actually now a vote for Labour.”

 

 

Mr. Tice, Reform’s chairman, expressed his satisfaction with the poll results, stating, “We’re absolutely delighted and YouGov is the gold standard of pollsters. We think they’ve been closest to our real support. And the direction of travel is that we’re heading north and the Tories are heading south. The people’s revolt is just gathering momentum.”

 

Reform UK's campaign strategy is set to intensify as Farage prepares to launch the party’s manifesto in the Welsh valleys, targeting Labour strongholds. Farage believes that Reform can capture seats from Labour in Wales, a region that voted strongly to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum. He argues that working-class communities in Wales have been neglected by Westminster since devolution and poorly served by the Labour-controlled Welsh Assembly.

 

 

The Reform manifesto will not only critique the Conservative government but also highlight what it describes as “the disaster of the devolved Labour government in a left behind part of the country.” The party aims to resonate with voters disillusioned with both major parties, capitalizing on the frustration felt in regions like South Wales, where many former mining communities voted Leave in 2016.

 

The Conservative campaign, meanwhile, has faced multiple setbacks. Recently, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had to apologize for leaving D-Day commemorations in Normandy early. Additionally, Sunak was embroiled in controversy after one of his aides placed a £100 bet on a July election just days before the Prime Minister announced it would take place on July 4, leading to an investigation by the Gambling Commission.

 

Lee Anderson, a former deputy chairman of the Conservative Party who defected to Reform in February, remarked on the poll results: “It’s happened, the crossover has actually happened. We are now polling ahead of the Conservative Party. Vote Conservative, get Labour.” A Tory MP from a marginal Red Wall constituency commented, “This is what happens when you fail to deliver on immigration.”

 

Reform’s surge in support since Farage’s return has caught Tory strategists off guard. A YouGov survey conducted just before Farage announced his comeback had Reform at 10 percent and the Tories comfortably in second place at 25 percent. Farage’s return to leadership has nearly doubled Reform's polling figures, disrupting the Conservatives’ election strategy.

 

Andrew Wells, head of European political and social research at YouGov, noted the significance of the poll: “Obviously all polls have a margin of error, so we can’t conclude for certain that more voters now back Nigel Farage’s party over the Conservatives. But what it does make clear is that at the very least the Conservatives and Reform are at a very similar level of support to each other. That in itself is remarkable given how close we are to an election when we might otherwise have expected smaller parties’ votes to be squeezed.”

12 hours ago, James105 said:

 

You spelt majority wrong.

 

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/immigration-tracker-march-2024

 

 

Despite the poll’s implications, some Conservative figures remain skeptical. David Davis, the former Conservative Brexit secretary, urged voters to be cautious about poll results: “On the doorstep in my constituency, I don’t see it. I’m sure the polls are right today. But the other thing I know from my 10 different campaigns is the polls are always off. There’s only one opinion poll that’s not off and it’s the one they take as people come out of the polling station. All the others are off by between 6 and 20 percent.”

 

The Conservative Party’s warnings about a potential Labour super-majority have been highlighted in their social media campaigns, suggesting that the party could be reduced to a rump of just 57 seats, with the Liberal Democrats potentially overtaking them as the largest opposition party. As the political landscape shifts, the upcoming election promises to be a defining moment for all parties involved.

 

Credit: Daily Telegraph 2024-06-15

 

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The UK has to do whatever is needed to get rid of that Cameron before he gets a world war going.

34 minutes ago, pegman said:

I just hope George Galloway's Workers Party of Britain takes more seats. The best quote of the election so far was on a conservative leaning TV show were one of the commentators stated "Had George Galloway been at the 7 party debate he would've mopped the floor with the bunch of them."

Galloway seems to be getting the muslim vote, good talker for sure

Come on, Farage!

14 hours ago, stevenl said:

Lol, blaming labour for something they may not do in the next years. How about looking at why it didn't happen in recent history and who is to blame for that?

 

This is the first sentence I wrote that you ignored:  "The 2 establishment parties no longer represent the people of the UK and represent their own interests. "

Unfortunately Farage will get elected this time. He's leading in most polls there. 

 

He then hopes the Tories get decimated. 

 

The old racist members of the Tory party clamour to make him leader. 

 

He winds up the Reform party and joins the Tory party. 

 

They make him leader. 

 

Depressing. 

Edited June 16, 20242 yr by DonniePeverley