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Well, there's a bunch of Euro's wasted.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...VLOUs&pos=5

Greece received the first installment of a three-year emergency-loan package from euro-region allies, allowing the country to repay 8.5 billion euros ($10.6 billion) of bonds due tomorrow and avoid default.

The EU completed the transfer of 14.5 billion euros, with 10 euro-region countries, including Germany, contributing to the first payment

I wonder which banks received the EUR 8.5 billion. But why give them another 6 Billion to squander on Ouzo, second villas and lying around in the olive groves? Should have left it for the Greeks to sort out. The German tax authorities should be forced upon them. By collecting on the tax evasion over the last decade they could fix this problem with ease.

And in July they will surely come back with arms outstretched for more. :):D

The loans will cover Greece's financing needs for May and June

And what is this, talking up the EUR....

"The euro is a credible currency," Juncker said. "Price stability has been fully maintained in the euro area over 11 years and will equally be maintained in the years to come. This is a major feature of the euro and a major asset for investors."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aI_cVrVKkrqI

Still, maybe it's what the PIGS need, a big kick up the fiscal arse, as Spain and Portugal are hauled onto the austerity wagon.

austerity? with debt going up to 150% BEFORE any of the planned reductions kick in....

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Der TARP: Germany Is Hiding A Big Banking Problem

Greece had Europe -- and especially Germany -- over a barrel all along. Germany is hiding a big banking problem -- a problem that could be, proportionally, on the same scale as that of the U.S. financial system's through 2008 if not greater. And like U.S. banks through our financial crisis, German banks -- and the German government -- might be hiding the full scale and scope of the problem. Unusually erratic Chancellor Merkel is certainly behaving as though this is the case.

This could be what's driving up the LIBOR spread again, a telltale sign of banking system stress that flashed dangers signs like this leading up the Lehman Brothers disaster. It's certainly what's behind the jump in credit default swaps on German banks -- now approaching the levels of the PIGS countries -- as investors seek insurance from the risk of German bank failures.

In credit research published earlier this week, Royal Bank of Canada analysts said the lack of disclosure by German banks of their Greek exposure was partially responsible for market volatility. It said German banks had not fully disclosed their exposure to Greek debt and the risk they could be forced to write down a lot of it. They estimate, based on BIS data, that as much of 75% of German bank exposure to Greece has not been disclosed. The say Commerzbank has the highest exposure to Greek debt.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/205794-der...banking-problem

This is a fight between the US dollar and the Euro. Obviously the dollar can do no wrong because when Bernanke prints money, everyone is happy but when the ECB prints money, everyone calls their bluff. Why ? I don't know, maybe because all the rating agencies are based in the US.

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austerity? with debt going up to 150% BEFORE any of the planned reductions kick in...

Gambles, i'm not sure about the 150% but slowly i am getting ready to agree with you, jump on your bandwagon and sing 'second voice' vizz mine harsh tchermann ackzent "Das Yewroland und sine kurrenzy iss doomed". reason: i am listening since days what various nonsense our politicians in Berlin are voicing, what rubbish results they produce, in what fairy tales they believe and what products they are trying to make using blunt tools. the only thing that prevents my blood from boiling is that they have no tax access to my dough to waste it.

:)

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This is a fight between the US dollar and the Euro. Obviously the dollar can do no wrong because when Bernanke prints money, everyone is happy but when the ECB prints money, everyone calls their bluff. Why ? I don't know, maybe because all the rating agencies are based in the US.

except Fitch.

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austerity? with debt going up to 150% BEFORE any of the planned reductions kick in...

Gambles, i'm not sure about the 150% but slowly i am getting ready to agree with you, jump on your bandwagon and sing 'second voice' vizz mine harsh tchermann ackzent "Das Yewroland und sine kurrenzy iss doomed". reason: i am listening since days what various nonsense our politicians in Berlin are voicing, what rubbish results they produce, in what fairy tales they believe and what products they are trying to make using blunt tools. the only thing that prevents my blood from boiling is that they have no tax access to my dough to waste it.

:)

Well if Gambles was referring only to Greece, I reckon 150% is probably a low figure assuming they were 115% at end 2009.

Remember they were cash negative when they entered the Euro and since then incomes have risen 50% relative to the Germans. Imports are 3x exports (which are about 15% of GDP.) Government expenditures were 40% higher than revenues last year. Their underlying 'austerity' namely deflate your way out of a debt problem is virtually impossible to achieve.

For instance if they get their fiscal deficit down to 8% of GDP they will probably see at least 6% deflation of GDP this year. They still will have a current a/c deficit and their debt/GDP ratio would jump to 129%. The fact that their GDP is overstated by a factor of perhaps 30% is as big a problem as their debt levels in a fixed exchange rate environment.

Stopping the increase in the nominator is difficult enough but it will only be achieved with a reduction of the denominator.

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reason: i am listening since days what various nonsense our politicians in Berlin are voicing, what rubbish results they produce, in what fairy tales they believe and what products they are trying to make using blunt tools. the only thing that prevents my blood from boiling is that they have no tax access to my dough to waste it.

Yes but.... A government does not need physical access to your dough to lay waste to it

Devaluation via inflation or decree works well from a distance too :)

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This is a fight between the US dollar and the Euro. Obviously the dollar can do no wrong because when Bernanke prints money, everyone is happy but when the ECB prints money, everyone calls their bluff. Why ? I don't know, maybe because all the rating agencies are based in the US.

Maybe things will change, Merkel is once again spouting some sense.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets...t-sell-off.html

She also called for a European version of the rating agencies which have been accused of exacerbating the crisis.

"I would be in favour of introducing a European rating agency which would act as a competitor to other rating agencies on a level playing field," she said.

The Chinese and now the Europeans are getting fed up with the hegemony policies of the US. And then she continues

Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor who yesterday caused a stir by warning that the euro was in danger, today said she would campaign for a tax on financial markets at the G20 summit in Canada.

In a wide-ranging speech on financial regulation, she stressed the importance of tightening the fiscal rules governing the euro area, the breech of which has contributed to the current crisis.

"If you have a currency like the euro ... then you need stricter rules than other governments that just decide for their own currency," she said.

"We need to tighten up the Stability and Growth Pact," she insisted, ahead of a meeting of EU finance ministers and the EU president Herman van Rompuy to discuss the pact Friday in Brussels.

We could now be observing the financing battle between the US and the Europeans, both of whom are competing to finance their profligacy on the world's markets.

Maybe somebody could come up with an US equivalent of the PIGIS?

Here's a start, lots of letters in there.

http://www.swivel.com/workbooks/20788-FY20...Budget-Deficits

Edited by 12DrinkMore
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Maybe somebody could come up with an US equivalent of the PIGIS?

Here's a start, lots of letters in there.

Just to see Californication in there with their 21.3% of the general fund is enough eh?

Or just take Cali, Arizona, Rhode Island & Nevada ( keeper of the holy land Las Vegas :D ) .... & your already at 65.2%

So call it CARN short for carnage :)

Edited by flying
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reason: i am listening since days what various nonsense our politicians in Berlin are voicing, what rubbish results they produce, in what fairy tales they believe and what products they are trying to make using blunt tools. the only thing that prevents my blood from boiling is that they have no tax access to my dough to waste it.

Yes but.... A government does not need physical access to your dough to lay waste to it

Devaluation via inflation or decree works well from a distance too :)

i'm not an ignorant sheep Flying, therefore i can protect myself against the dangers you allege and i can act much faster than "my" government. but i can't protect myself and prevent the claws of Mr. Schäuble (our present finance minister) taking 46% of my income and 25% of any capital gains over and over and over again out of my pockets if i lived in Germany. not to mention the 21% additional tax on any goods and services and not to mention the zillion other ways Germans (and other Europeans) are fleeced by fees, surcharges and hidden taxes.

on a side note: Germany is still a "tax paradise" compared to other european countries, for example Denmark.

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Why? ... because 'Everyone' must believe in the "Full Faith and Credit" clause of the USA but they do not belive in the same (if there is one) of the fractured EU.

There you have it, the most crowded bubble position of all. The US dollar. Everyone loves the US dollar.

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Suppressing the Cognitive Dissonance of a Bogus Recovery

Despite a 24/7 campaign of carefully managed "good news," 76% of Americans do not

believe the U.S. "recovery." Hmm, I wonder why?

A massive outbreak of economic cognitive dissonance is being suppressed with wave

after wave of manufactured "good news." Every visibly negative bit of data is run through

a media and Central State assembly line to refashion it as "good news" and "evidence" that

the "nascent recovery is taking hold." Whatever cannot be rejiggered is simply buried or suppressed.

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2010/...sonance-of.html

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An interesting question is what is going to the Thai economy now. It is hardly as though the resolution of the protest as ended the underlying conflict.

Korn did make one rather interesting statement today. He says that when Q1 growth is announced shortly, year on year growth will be in double digits - i.e. above 10%.

He did also say that he felt that the problems had reduced growth by '0.5%' which I think is massively optimistic. But given first quarter growth the economy was heading for 7-8% growth this year compared to the official forecast of 3.5%-4.5%.

So we will almost certainly not see negative growth this year despite the problems - more likely the original BoT forecast will turn out about right or maybe some growth rather than economic collapse.

its only interesting of you believe this stuff . We now know based on the experinece in Greece that you cant believe a word

these people tell you :)

The only difference between Greece's blatant manipulation and falsification of its government statistics and what takes place in a number of other countries is that Greece got caught.

Greece's Statistical Lies - Are the Numbers Any Better in the U.S.?

http://nyinvestingmeetup.blogspot.com/2010...re-numbers.html

Ok so all the BoT statistics are lies.... they make up whatever they like.... presumably for their own benefit.

So explain this. Why would the BoT balance sheet show they have spent US$60bn shorting the baht (with losses currently running at US$10bn.) As one of the most incredibly stupid decisions made over the last 10 years, presumably they wouldnt let anyone know.

To be honest there are things they dont publicize such as 4Q QOQ SAAR growth was 15.3%.

But just logically, when the BoT has spent so much money trying to get the baht down, why would it constantly publishing figures that it should imply that it should appreciate?

They have the largest short baht position in the world by a factor of probably 10x - so falsifying their statistics to imply baht devaluation is a good conspiracy theory. Falsifying them destroy their own trading positions is totally absurd.

agreed 100% (although there are some other central banks in countries near here where the picture isn't nearly so clear....

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Here in Thailand you have a similar resource to scrutinise government claims and they pointed out twice how unreliable

Korn's estimates are :)

In April 2009

" Korn, the alleged Finance Minister, is the man who revises GPD forecast faster than his own shadow.

End of march, he said that the economy would contract by 2 to 3 %. Tuesday, he said that it could be worse. And now…

The Thai economy could contract by as much as 5 percent in the aftermath of the recent political upheaval, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said Wednesday.

Mr. Korn said the turmoil had shaken investor confidence significantly, as well as inflicting a major blow on the tourism sector. As a result, academics are now forecasting that the Thai economy will contract in the range of 4.5 to 5 per cent, from the pre-riot forecast of a 3 per cent contraction."

and again later in April 2009

" The GDP for 2009 would would decline beyond the -2.5% to -3.0% earlier expected because of the rioting by the red-shirt group, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said on Tuesday. Mr Korn said the Ministry of Finance would revise its GDP growth estimate for the year as it was certain that from tourism and exports would fall as a consequence of the unrest. (Bangkok Post) What a nice umbrella for a man who never believed there was a recession… And for a man who then said that economy could contract by 3 % "

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/category/e...my/gdp-economy/

Look Midas dont start spouting <deleted>.....

You make two accusations against Korn in April 2009....

(1) During the month he stated that growth could be anywhere between -2% and -5%. Now given that he gets forecasts from quasi-gov organizations such as - the MOF, BoT and the NESDB - as well as 'acedemics' that is hardly surprising. In fact back in April 2009 an indication of a more precise number would have been rather silly. As it turned out at - 2.6% he really did pretty well.

(2) It claims that Korn said there would be no recession. Well in December 2008 he said growth would be +2% so he probably did. Still in January 2009, the IMF cut its forecast from +4.0% to +2.6% so he wasnt exactly out of touch.

BTW the US adjusted their 3Q growth numbers by 1.8% after they first announced them and already had the figures. So you believe a FM who says in April growth will be -2.6% and sticks with it is more credible - actually the .6% end bit is simply ridiculous.

Any Blog that starts with Korn, the 'alleged' FM isnt worth reading in the first place because he is the FM, and imho, given the crap politicians you have in this country, we are very lucky to have him.

And two final thoughts....

Everyone has theories and we all see statistics. As a general rule it is best to try and adjust your theories than assume all statistics are bogus and lies.

The BoT is one of the most transparent Central Banks around (far more than say the Fed). It produces a whole wealth of statistics on a weekly, monthly and quarterly basis. Noone really bothers to read them, and I guess you assume they are all lies. Of the 180 listed companies on the SET I aggregated, sales were up 19.4% YOY in 1Q - of course all their financial statements could be bogus too.

Sorry, Midas. I agree with you on many things but in this case, Abrak is just, plain right.....

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Here in Thailand you have a similar resource to scrutinise government claims and they pointed out twice how unreliable

Korn's estimates are :)

In April 2009

" Korn, the alleged Finance Minister, is the man who revises GPD forecast faster than his own shadow.

End of march, he said that the economy would contract by 2 to 3 %. Tuesday, he said that it could be worse. And now…

The Thai economy could contract by as much as 5 percent in the aftermath of the recent political upheaval, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said Wednesday.

Mr. Korn said the turmoil had shaken investor confidence significantly, as well as inflicting a major blow on the tourism sector. As a result, academics are now forecasting that the Thai economy will contract in the range of 4.5 to 5 per cent, from the pre-riot forecast of a 3 per cent contraction."

and again later in April 2009

" The GDP for 2009 would would decline beyond the -2.5% to -3.0% earlier expected because of the rioting by the red-shirt group, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said on Tuesday. Mr Korn said the Ministry of Finance would revise its GDP growth estimate for the year as it was certain that from tourism and exports would fall as a consequence of the unrest. (Bangkok Post) What a nice umbrella for a man who never believed there was a recession… And for a man who then said that economy could contract by 3 % "

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/category/e...my/gdp-economy/

Look Midas dont start spouting <deleted>.....

You make two accusations against Korn in April 2009....

(1) During the month he stated that growth could be anywhere between -2% and -5%. Now given that he gets forecasts from quasi-gov organizations such as - the MOF, BoT and the NESDB - as well as 'acedemics' that is hardly surprising. In fact back in April 2009 an indication of a more precise number would have been rather silly. As it turned out at - 2.6% he really did pretty well.

(2) It claims that Korn said there would be no recession. Well in December 2008 he said growth would be +2% so he probably did. Still in January 2009, the IMF cut its forecast from +4.0% to +2.6% so he wasnt exactly out of touch.

BTW the US adjusted their 3Q growth numbers by 1.8% after they first announced them and already had the figures. So you believe a FM who says in April growth will be -2.6% and sticks with it is more credible - actually the .6% end bit is simply ridiculous.

Any Blog that starts with Korn, the 'alleged' FM isnt worth reading in the first place because he is the FM, and imho, given the crap politicians you have in this country, we are very lucky to have him.

And two final thoughts....

Everyone has theories and we all see statistics. As a general rule it is best to try and adjust your theories than assume all statistics are bogus and lies.

The BoT is one of the most transparent Central Banks around (far more than say the Fed). It produces a whole wealth of statistics on a weekly, monthly and quarterly basis. Noone really bothers to read them, and I guess you assume they are all lies. Of the 180 listed companies on the SET I aggregated, sales were up 19.4% YOY in 1Q - of course all their financial statements could be bogus too.

I just spoke to my friend Theo in Athens and he says all politicians spout <deleted> :D

there you go - now I agree with you again!

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austerity? with debt going up to 150% BEFORE any of the planned reductions kick in...

Gambles, i'm not sure about the 150% but slowly i am getting ready to agree with you, jump on your bandwagon and sing 'second voice' vizz mine harsh tchermann ackzent "Das Yewroland und sine kurrenzy iss doomed". reason: i am listening since days what various nonsense our politicians in Berlin are voicing, what rubbish results they produce, in what fairy tales they believe and what products they are trying to make using blunt tools. the only thing that prevents my blood from boiling is that they have no tax access to my dough to waste it.

:)

American and European politicians - turning a crisis into a total <deleted> catastrophe

150% is the level that Greek debt is projected to rise to before projected cuts create a projected surplus which causes the projected debt to start falling again (according to the projections)

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austerity? with debt going up to 150% BEFORE any of the planned reductions kick in...

Gambles, i'm not sure about the 150% but slowly i am getting ready to agree with you, jump on your bandwagon and sing 'second voice' vizz mine harsh tchermann ackzent "Das Yewroland und sine kurrenzy iss doomed". reason: i am listening since days what various nonsense our politicians in Berlin are voicing, what rubbish results they produce, in what fairy tales they believe and what products they are trying to make using blunt tools. the only thing that prevents my blood from boiling is that they have no tax access to my dough to waste it.

:)

Well if Gambles was referring only to Greece, I reckon 150% is probably a low figure assuming they were 115% at end 2009.

Remember they were cash negative when they entered the Euro and since then incomes have risen 50% relative to the Germans. Imports are 3x exports (which are about 15% of GDP.) Government expenditures were 40% higher than revenues last year. Their underlying 'austerity' namely deflate your way out of a debt problem is virtually impossible to achieve.

For instance if they get their fiscal deficit down to 8% of GDP they will probably see at least 6% deflation of GDP this year. They still will have a current a/c deficit and their debt/GDP ratio would jump to 129%. The fact that their GDP is overstated by a factor of perhaps 30% is as big a problem as their debt levels in a fixed exchange rate environment.

Stopping the increase in the nominator is difficult enough but it will only be achieved with a reduction of the denominator.

Yup!

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We have seen the unrest in Greece on the tv news so let us see what happens to

overall " sentiment ' on the 2nd June.

Fighting words here ................ :)

Spanish unions prepare demonstrations all over the country over recent ‘austerity measures’

For its part, the UGT expressed its "utmost support" for the general strike of public employees on 2 June and announced that it will review a "proportionate response" to the welfare cuts announced by the Government, which represent a significant breach of trust by the Government.

The unions are preparing mobilizations in the streets to express their rejection of the government Adjustment Plan for the financial crisis.

http://www.barcelonareporter.com/index.php...er_recent_aust/

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You easily get a sense of how bad things are regarding Europe…………

You now have the US President of all people doing the hussling of all these other world leaders like an insurance salesman.

“US President Barack Obama had called Mr Zapatero the day before his announcement to discuss the importance of "Spain taking resolute action as part of Europe's effort to strengthen its economy and build market confidence".

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/eu...ed-1972211.html

I find this even more amazing because in fact Obama has more than enough DEBT problems to deal with in his own Union !

32 States Now Officially Bankrupt: $37.8 Billion Borrowed From Treasury To Fund Unemployment; CA, MI, NY Worst ”

Edited by midas
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water on Midas' mills (courtesy zerobull... Dyler Turd) :) :

Total US debt just hit $12,987,823,000,000, $13 billion from lucky $13 trillion. As next week the US Treasury is auctioning off another gross $140+ billion in Bonds, we will pass this totally irrelevant resistance level on May 25, when Timmy issues another $42 billion of 2 Year Notes. The next important support level of $14 trillion will be surpassed around the time the Democrats get destroyed in the mid-term elections, while the statutory debt limit of $14.3 trillion will likely have to be raised in January 2011 by a new Republican majority, an action which will promptly reduce popular republican support following their election victory, thus starting the pointless D->R->D->R etc cycle all over again. Also, at approximately that time headlines that US debt is now 100% of GDP will take the US bond vigilantes out of hibernation and will send US interest rates soaring, assisted by Ben Bernanke's most recent announcement that the Fed will be "forced" to purchase another $1.5 trillion in treasuries and mortgages. Stepping away from the Ouija board, we also notice that so far in April, the Treasury has rolled another unsustainable amount of Treasuries: $397 billion, of which $$359 billion is in Bills.

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water on Midas' mills (courtesy zerobull... Dyler Turd) :) :

Total US debt just hit $12,987,823,000,000, $13 billion from lucky $13 trillion. As next week the US Treasury is auctioning off another gross $140+ billion in Bonds, we will pass this totally irrelevant resistance level on May 25, when Timmy issues another $42 billion of 2 Year Notes. The next important support level of $14 trillion will be surpassed around the time the Democrats get destroyed in the mid-term elections, while the statutory debt limit of $14.3 trillion will likely have to be raised in January 2011 by a new Republican majority, an action which will promptly reduce popular republican support following their election victory, thus starting the pointless D->R->D->R etc cycle all over again. Also, at approximately that time headlines that US debt is now 100% of GDP will take the US bond vigilantes out of hibernation and will send US interest rates soaring, assisted by Ben Bernanke's most recent announcement that the Fed will be "forced" to purchase another $1.5 trillion in treasuries and mortgages. Stepping away from the Ouija board, we also notice that so far in April, the Treasury has rolled another unsustainable amount of Treasuries: $397 billion, of which $$359 billion is in Bills.

Another historic moment :D

Naam you not only joined the doom and gloom brigade but here you are actually reading and quoting Zerohedge !! :D

12 months ago they would have said it could never be done :D

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I just spoke to my friend Theo in Athens and he says all politicians spout <deleted> :)

there you go - now I agree with you again!

I tried to get hold of Theo but I was told he was having an afternoon siesta.

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Naam you not only joined the doom and gloom brigade but here you are actually reading and quoting Zerohedge !! :)

12 months ago they would have said it could never be done :D

as an old soldier i use military tactics Midas. pouring water on your mill might soften your stance vs. my [not so] humble self and sooner or later i hope you will accept my invitation to an exquisite bottle of wine in my home which we will consume having much fun, comparing the yields of our rice and vegetable fields while lighting cuban cigars with high denominations of fiat money. it goes without saying that at the end of this meeting i expect you (being the Commanding G&D Officer) to promote me from recruit to Private First Class of the G&D brigade. there is no free lunch bottle of wine!

:D

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I just spoke to my friend Theo in Athens and he says all politicians spout <deleted> :)

there you go - now I agree with you again!

I tried to get hold of Theo but I was told he was having an afternoon siesta.

touché :D

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Naam you not only joined the doom and gloom brigade but here you are actually reading and quoting Zerohedge !! :)

12 months ago they would have said it could never be done :D

as an old soldier i use military tactics Midas. pouring water on your mill might soften your stance vs. my [not so] humble self and sooner or later i hope you will accept my invitation to an exquisite bottle of wine in my home which we will consume having much fun, comparing the yields of our rice and vegetable fields while lighting cuban cigars with high denominations of fiat money. it goes without saying that at the end of this meeting i expect you (being the Commanding G&D Officer) to promote me from recruit to Private First Class of the G&D brigade. there is no free lunch bottle of wine!

:D

that souns great Naaam ...........will you invite Dyler Turd as well ? :D

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My favorite quote from Tyler Durden is this...

Warning: If you are reading this then this warning is for you. Every word you read of this useless fine print is another second off your life. Don't you have other things to do? Is your life so empty that you honestly can't think of a better way to spend these moments? Or are you so impressed with authority that you give respect and credence to all that claim it? Do you read everything you're supposed to read? Do you think every thing you're supposed to think? Buy what you're told to want? Get out of your apartment. Meet a member of the opposite sex. Stop the excessive shopping and masturbation. Quit your job. Start a fight. Prove you're alive. If you don't claim your humanity you will become a statistic. You have been warned

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that souns great Naaam ...........will you invite Dyler Turd as well ? :D

if he is willing to entertain my dogs that they don't bother us while we conduct serious discussions and exchange views... the answer is yes. :)

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My favorite quote from Tyler Durden is this...

Warning: If you are reading this then this warning is for you. Every word you read of this useless fine print is another second off your life. Don't you have other things to do? Is your life so empty that you honestly can't think of a better way to spend these moments? Or are you so impressed with authority that you give respect and credence to all that claim it? Do you read everything you're supposed to read? Do you think every thing you're supposed to think? Buy what you're told to want? Get out of your apartment. Meet a member of the opposite sex. Stop the excessive shopping and masturbation. Quit your job. Start a fight. Prove you're alive. If you don't claim your humanity you will become a statistic. You have been warned

That should be 'pinned' somewhere in ThaiVisa as well...

:)

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