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^^^^

I leave it to others to reply....

LaoPo

i know what you have in mind but i refuse to comply!

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:licklips:..oh come on, let's have some :crazy: fun :jerk: ....it's sooo boring sometimes in here

LaoPo

i am too busy "nut-hugging" Hu Jintao [according to Chunky] :whistling:

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^^^^

I leave it to others to reply....

LaoPo

i know what you have in mind but i refuse to comply!

av-11672.gif

:licklips:..oh come on, let's have some :crazy: fun :jerk: ....it's sooo boring sometimes in here

LaoPo

i am too busy "nut-hugging" Hu Jintao [according to Chunky] :whistling:

Yeah, that was a new one for me also....

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I don't understand why all of a sudden the media is on this tangent about how China has beaten the USA, as if Economics is some kind of zero sum game.

What does China have? A bunch of USD currency. What does the US have? A printing press that controls the value of said currency. What else does the USA have? The biggest share of the World's gold supply. Who has the rest of the gold? Europe. What is China doing? Printing Yuan to buy USD and in the process robbing their citizens of their purchasing power and ability to enjoy life as prices rise all so that they can subsidize the elite factory owners and lazy American material life style and continue the ponzi scheme which is the global economy. What scares the Chinese government the most? The notion that their people might one day demand democracy and reparations for the tens of millions who perished during the revolution.

I hate American fiscal policy but let's not delude ourselves here that the Chinese are 'winning'. I don't see farang on this message board complaining about not being able to work 10 hours a day in a factory for a dollar an hour! Go China People!

for your edification Chinas hard landing

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The US Economy is starting to look better. 2 years ago, it was all doom and gloom in the media...not true today. Big problems are still there, but things are improving.

Craig I am curious...... from your perspective what is improving in the US?

Has unemployment risen or dropped? Is food & gas prices rising or dropping?

Seems as of 1/22/11 the True UE rate is closer to 22% now

Are the 40 million on food stamps starting to make it on their own?

Just curious as I still live in the US & have not seen the improvements so wondered what your seeing?

Or do you mean what the media is reporting sounds encouraging?

Thanks

Edited by flying
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The US Economy is starting to look better. 2 years ago, it was all doom and gloom in the media...not true today. Big problems are still there, but things are improving.

Craig I am curious...... from your perspective what is improving in the US?

Has unemployment risen or dropped? Is food & gas prices rising or dropping?

Seems as of 1/22/11 the True UE rate is closer to 22% now

Are the 40 million on food stamps starting to make it on their own?

Just curious as I still live in the US & have not seen the improvements so wondered what your seeing?

Or do you mean what the media is reporting sounds encouraging?

Thanks

I (was) in the real estate biz in a small town outside Vegas. It's been dead for several years, but my partner is now seeing some signs of life. Not a huge improvement, but better than 2 years ago. She is actually moving some properties now after going through all of 2009 with zip.

I hear the same from my friends outside Bakersfield, California. One of the hardest hit areas in the US. One is in the carpet biz (huge player) and is for sure seeing an improvement. After laying off 70% of his staff in 2008 and 2009.

For sure, I base a bunch on the media. 2 years ago, it was all doom and gloom. Double dip recession, etc. I don't see that anymore. It ain't great, but it's better than it was 2 years ago. And forward looking is getting even better. The recent consensus of economists was all upbeat. First time in quite a while. This one came out today:

http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/24/news/economy/nabe_survey/index.htm

Excerpt:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- In another sign of a strengthening economy, U.S. companies say they are planning to hire more workers, and expect economic growth to pick up in the first months of 2011, according to a survey released Monday.

The National Association for Business Economics said the hiring outlook for the next six months is at a 12-year high.

Forty-two percent of companies surveyed said they expect to hire more workers in the next six months, a 13% increase over the same time last year. Meanwhile, 51% expect no change in hiring, while only 7% expect a decrease.

Even in Vegas, which is about the hardest hit place in the US, over Xmas, the stores were jammed. People were buying. My wife even commented "what recession?".

Now don't get me wrong, there's still a rough road ahead, and several things that could really change everything (foreclosures, debt, etc.). But, as I said earlier, I'm starting to see and read things that indicate an improvement. Time will tell....

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Now don't get me wrong, there's still a rough road ahead, and several things that could really change everything (foreclosures, debt, etc.). But, as I said earlier, I'm starting to see and read things that indicate an improvement. Time will tell....

Well I am all for good news ;)

Hopefully it is not just carpetbaggers buying up distress properties at short sales.

As for Xmas shopping I too did see folks buying but....Not sure if it is cash earned paying or credit.

Many here now have the <removed> them attitude & are charging up a storm only to walk on the bill & their credit ratings.

(I am not one of them)

But as I said I am all for good news....just have not seen an self sustaining green shoots myself.

The media..... :bah: They of course are hoping to stimulate spending & stock investing/gambling as always.

We will keep our fingers crossed but stick to our prepping for stormy times ahead.

Thanks

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Now don't get me wrong, there's still a rough road ahead, and several things that could really change everything (foreclosures, debt, etc.). But, as I said earlier, I'm starting to see and read things that indicate an improvement. Time will tell....

Well I am all for good news ;)

Hopefully it is not just carpetbaggers buying up distress properties at short sales.

As for Xmas shopping I too did see folks buying but....Not sure if it is cash earned paying or credit.

Many here now have the <removed> them attitude & are charging up a storm only to walk on the bill & their credit ratings.

(I am not one of them)

But as I said I am all for good news....just have not seen an self sustaining green shoots myself.

The media..... :bah: They of course are hoping to stimulate spending & stock investing/gambling as always.

We will keep our fingers crossed but stick to our prepping for stormy times ahead.

Thanks

I don't agree with your comment regarding the media. Some outlets are wacky for sure, but not all. 3 years ago, it was all doom and gloom. Can't understand how that stimulates spending and stock investing? Now, its much better. Here's another article out today. Wouldn't have seen that 3 years ago. Right? I know this is about like the Big Mac index, but I do believe it is an indication of things to come. Hopefully!!!!!!!

http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/25/news/economy/consumer_confidence/index.htm

http://jobs.aol.com/articles/2011/01/24/2011-job-forecast/

edit: Here is an interesting article on the US financial crisis, the report just came out from the investigating panel. Interesting read, good summary, and blames a lot of different people:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/26/business/economy/26inquiry.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=globasasa24

And of course, all the news isn't good:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/26/business/economy/26econ.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=globasasa24

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I don't agree with your comment regarding the media. Some outlets are wacky for sure, but not all. 3 years ago, it was all doom and gloom. Can't understand how that stimulates spending and stock investing? Now, its much better. Here's another article out today. Wouldn't have seen that 3 years ago. Right? I know this is about like the Big Mac index, but I do believe it is an indication of things to come. Hopefully!!!!!!!

Sorry what I meant about media was my perspective.

Since I mainly watch financial based news I tend to view it as cheer leading by the talking heads.

Of course when it does not go there predicted way they will always say....Well who could have seen that turn of events.....

Yet anyone with eyes could see..... Yes throw trillions at the banks & the casino/stock market will move

As for now it is "much better".....Well as I said I live here in the US & it does not in anyway appear "much better".

As to the articles..... Yes a consumer Confidence Index...Based on 5000 polled out of 300 million??...Yet even at that it is at 60 when they expected 53...Celebrate?

Yet again they also state a healthy reading would be above 90 with a strong growth being above 100

So I view this cheer leading in the same way I do the Unemployment or jobs report....When they celebrate only losing another 200,000 jobs instead of the expected 300,000

Not unlike that AOL job forecast you linked....Which is peppered with comments such as....

employers surveyed plan to hire

Thirteen percent of these employers expect to hire part-time employees in the next 12 months, up from 11 percent in 2010

So we will see if these things actually happen & like I said before I would be happy to see it.....But as yet it is not occurring.

They may *plan to* & they may *expect to* but as yet unemployment is raging here & it will take a lot more than a 1% growth per year to make a dent in it.

The other two articles....One says yet again it was avoidable & yes we all knew that for years now & yet none have been shot or hung for creating the worst situation the US has seen....Instead they get bail outs/ Stimulus/ TARP/ Bonuses...

The housing article....Yes I am a contractor & know about the house prices & is why I mentioned in my last post that I hoped the sales you reported in LV were good sales & not just short sales to carpet baggers.

I do admire your optimism & like you truly hope there will be improvements ....

But again as yet I have not seen the government make one move in the right direction to so much as stop the bleeding let alone repair the wounds. Quite the opposite as they open the veins fully with each increase in wrongful spending.

edit...ooops on the population number ;)

Edited by flying
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I don't agree with your comment regarding the media. Some outlets are wacky for sure, but not all. 3 years ago, it was all doom and gloom. Can't understand how that stimulates spending and stock investing? Now, its much better. Here's another article out today. Wouldn't have seen that 3 years ago. Right? I know this is about like the Big Mac index, but I do believe it is an indication of things to come. Hopefully!!!!!!!

Sorry what I meant about media was my perspective.

Since I mainly watch financial based news I tend to view it as cheer leading by the talking heads.

Of course when it does not go there predicted way they will always say....Well who could have seen that turn of events.....

Yet anyone with eyes could see..... Yes throw trillions at the banks & the casino/stock market will move

As for now it is "much better".....Well as I said I live here in the US & it does not in anyway appear "much better".

As to the articles..... Yes a consumer Confidence Index...Based on 5000 polled out of 300 million??...Yet even at that it is at 60 when they expected 53...Celebrate?

Yet again they also state a healthy reading would be above 90 with a strong growth being above 100

So I view this cheer leading in the same way I do the Unemployment or jobs report....When they celebrate only losing another 200,000 jobs instead of the expected 300,000

Not unlike that AOL job forecast you linked....Which is peppered with comments such as....

employers surveyed plan to hire

Thirteen percent of these employers expect to hire part-time employees in the next 12 months, up from 11 percent in 2010

So we will see if these things actually happen & like I said before I would be happy to see it.....But as yet it is not occurring.

They may *plan to* & they may *expect to* but as yet unemployment is raging here & it will take a lot more than a 1% growth per year to make a dent in it.

The other two articles....One says yet again it was avoidable & yes we all knew that for years now & yet none have been shot or hung for creating the worst situation the US has seen....Instead they get bail outs/ Stimulus/ TARP/ Bonuses...

The housing article....Yes I am a contractor & know about the house prices & is why I mentioned in my last post that I hoped the sales you reported in LV were good sales & not just short sales to carpet baggers.

I do admire your optimism & like you truly hope there will be improvements ....

But again as yet I have not seen the government make one move in the right direction to so much as stop the bleeding let alone repair the wounds. Quite the opposite as they open the veins fully with each increase in wrongful spending.

edit...ooops on the population number ;)

I just watched the State of the Union address with Obama's emphasis on education

and that he says this represents the future in US together with innovation :blink:

What i kept asking myself throughout this speech is why has it taken them so long

to realise how far the education standards in US have fallen compared to say China?

And how can you expect entrepreneurs in US to flourish when they keep hitting them

with new taxes and charges ? :ermm:

It is like say one thing and do the opposite :rolleyes:

Edited by midas
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It is like say one thing and do the opposite :rolleyes:

Bottom line for me....

We have a government that we cannot afford & it is growing

We have a Military Industrial Complex we cannot/should not afford & it is growing

We have Banks that are too big to fail & they are happily getting bigger on our dime & future generations dimes

FUBAR

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It is like say one thing and do the opposite :rolleyes:

Bottom line for me....

We have a government that we cannot afford & it is growing

We have a Military Industrial Complex we cannot/should not afford & it is growing

We have Banks that are too big to fail & they are happily getting bigger on our dime & future generations dimes

FUBAR

100% agree...unfortunately!!!!! :(

midas: sounds like all the talk on alternative energy...we've been hearing that for 30+ years!!! But still no significant action.

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Why is Goldman Sachs borrowing $2.5 billion at nearly twice the current prime rate? What do they know that their lenders can't seem to figure out?

That I can answer: Despite what Goldman's sock puppets are telling us, there really is inflation brewing in the system, and Goldman is relatively assured that it will be paying back that $2.5 billion with much, much weaker dollars.

What I can't answer is why anyone listens to these guys at all anymore.

Yours truly,

Adam

Taipan Daily

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I don't understand why all of a sudden the media is on this tangent about how China has beaten the USA, as if Economics is some kind of zero sum game.

What does China have? A bunch of USD currency. What does the US have? A printing press that controls the value of said currency. What else does the USA have? The biggest share of the World's gold supply. Who has the rest of the gold? Europe. What is China doing? Printing Yuan to buy USD and in the process robbing their citizens of their purchasing power and ability to enjoy life as prices rise all so that they can subsidize the elite factory owners and lazy American material life style and continue the ponzi scheme which is the global economy. What scares the Chinese government the most? The notion that their people might one day demand democracy and reparations for the tens of millions who perished during the revolution.

I hate American fiscal policy but let's not delude ourselves here that the Chinese are 'winning'. I don't see farang on this message board complaining about not being able to work 10 hours a day in a factory for a dollar an hour! Go China People!

for your edification Chinas hard landing

for your edification Chinas hard landing

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It is like say one thing and do the opposite :rolleyes:

Bottom line for me....

We have a government that we cannot afford & it is growing

We have a Military Industrial Complex we cannot/should not afford & it is growing

We have Banks that are too big to fail & they are happily getting bigger on our dime & future generations dimes

FUBAR

100% agree...unfortunately!!!!! :(

midas: sounds like all the talk on alternative energy...we've been hearing that for 30+ years!!! But still no significant action.

And another thing - even if they do suddenly start respecting teachers ( all of a sudden )in the US

as Obama advocated in his speech this morning and they throw squilions at the probelm - it still doesnt

solve the fact that some students will never have respect for authority which is the fault

of parents and no family values in USA ( unlike China and India ).

If that is best you can come up with Mr President I dont envy your task at all :unsure:

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It is like say one thing and do the opposite :rolleyes:

Bottom line for me....

We have a government that we cannot afford & it is growing

We have a Military Industrial Complex we cannot/should not afford & it is growing

We have Banks that are too big to fail & they are happily getting bigger on our dime & future generations dimes

FUBAR

100% agree...unfortunately!!!!! :(

midas: sounds like all the talk on alternative energy...we've been hearing that for 30+ years!!! But still no significant action.

And another thing - even if they do start respecting teachers ( all of a sudden )in the US

as Obama advocated in his speech this morning and they throw squilions at the probelm - it still doesnt

solve the fact that some students will never have respect for authority which is the fault

of parents and no family values in USA ( unlike China and India ).

If that is best you can come up with Mr President I dont envy your task at all :unsure:

Edited by midas
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I don't understand why all of a sudden the media is on this tangent about how China has beaten the USA, as if Economics is some kind of zero sum game.

What does China have? A bunch of USD currency. What does the US have? A printing press that controls the value of said currency. What else does the USA have? The biggest share of the World's gold supply. Who has the rest of the gold? Europe. What is China doing? Printing Yuan to buy USD and in the process robbing their citizens of their purchasing power and ability to enjoy life as prices rise all so that they can subsidize the elite factory owners and lazy American material life style and continue the ponzi scheme which is the global economy. What scares the Chinese government the most? The notion that their people might one day demand democracy and reparations for the tens of millions who perished during the revolution.

I hate American fiscal policy but let's not delude ourselves here that the Chinese are 'winning'. I don't see farang on this message board complaining about not being able to work 10 hours a day in a factory for a dollar an hour! Go China People!

for your edification Chinas hard landing

for your edification Chinas hard landing

:rolleyes: Yeah right ...and at the same time Editorial Director of Taipan Publishing Group, Mr. Justice Litle, writes:

"Now, thanks to a 'secret' deal cut with a Communist Party hero, you could start making four times your money off this company tomorrow. Act immediately and you could.......blahblahblah..." same-same as above.

Writing "IF" articles and promote China at the same time.

SO: hurry and start making FOUR TIMES YOUR MONEY.....TOMORROW!!

I tripled it yesterday and left the "four times" for you guys. :whistling:

LaoPo

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If you read the State of the Union speech you wouldn't even know that the USA has a debt problem. He thinks the government can spend money which will lead to technological progress and thus business progress, as opposed to simply cutting spending and taxes and allowing the free market to choose where to invest. :rolleyes:

Also, anybody else find it hilarious when Obama says stuff like "I am freezing government salaries for 5 years which cuts 400 billion dollars from the budget". Um, how about actually cutting their salary from where it is now? :blink:

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If you read the State of the Union speech you wouldn't even know that the USA has a debt problem. He thinks the government can spend money which will lead to technological progress and thus business progress, as opposed to simply cutting spending and taxes and allowing the free market to choose where to invest

Also, anybody else find it hilarious when Obama says stuff like "I am freezing government salaries for 5 years which cuts 400 billion dollars from the budget". Um, how about actually cutting their salary from where it is now? :blink:

Average federal salaries already exceed average private-sector pay in 83% of comparable occupations....They are very generous employers on our dime.

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2011/01/reactions-to-the-state-of-the-union-speech.html

Eliminating regulation: The idea is that removing unnecessary regulation will improve our ability to innovate, and this will help the economy create new, good jobs. However, it wasn't lack of innovation or lack of competitiveness that got us into this mess, it was an out of control financial sector. The President talked about eliminating unnecessary regulation, but far too little was said about the need to implement new regulations where they are needed. In addition, by focusing so much on helping business, the president risks sending the message that what is good for business is necessarily good for the nation. Businesses need the right environment to thrive, but we must not lose sight of the fact that it's the skills of the people that work at businesses that matters most. Our ultimate goal is the best possible life for as many people as possible, and that requires a broader focus than businesses alone.
Edited by flying
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FED Rate remains unchanged as announced today

They say 600B will be spent on long term treasuries in 2nd quarter of 2011

They also say Employers still reluctant to add to payrolls

Progress in Economy Disappointingly slow

High unemployment still causing consumers to not spend

FOMC pledges to keep rates low for *extended Period*

edit: now online

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110126-712862.html

Edited by flying
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FED Rate remains unchanged as announced today

They say 600B will be spent on long term treasuries in 2nd quarter of 2011

They also say Employers still reluctant to add to payrolls

Progress in Economy Disappointingly slow

High unemployment still causing consumers to not spend

FOMC pledges to keep rates low for *extended Period*

edit: now online

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110126-712862.html

But i thought there were millions of Americans who could afford to spend

because they are still not paying their mortgages ? :huh:

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FED Rate remains unchanged as announced today

They say 600B will be spent on long term treasuries in 2nd quarter of 2011

They also say Employers still reluctant to add to payrolls

Progress in Economy Disappointingly slow

High unemployment still causing consumers to not spend

FOMC pledges to keep rates low for *extended Period*

edit: now online

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110126-712862.html

But i thought there were millions of Americans who could afford to spend

because they are still not paying their mortgages ? :huh:

Consumer spending is on the rise, this is the second article I've seen this week talking about it:

http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/26/news/economy/consumer_spending_rebound/index.htm

This one is interesting also:

http://features.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2011/01/26/rogoff-on-the-economy/

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I see the FOMC statement I posted is truncated as per Wall Street Journal pay to see plan :(

Read it for free at the horses mouth...

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20110126a.htm

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions. Growth in household spending picked up late last year, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.
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I don't understand why all of a sudden the media is on this tangent about how China has beaten the USA, as if Economics is some kind of zero sum game.

What does China have? A bunch of USD currency. What does the US have? A printing press that controls the value of said currency. What else does the USA have? The biggest share of the World's gold supply. Who has the rest of the gold? Europe. What is China doing? Printing Yuan to buy USD and in the process robbing their citizens of their purchasing power and ability to enjoy life as prices rise all so that they can subsidize the elite factory owners and lazy American material life style and continue the ponzi scheme which is the global economy. What scares the Chinese government the most? The notion that their people might one day demand democracy and reparations for the tens of millions who perished during the revolution.

I hate American fiscal policy but let's not delude ourselves here that the Chinese are 'winning'. I don't see farang on this message board complaining about not being able to work 10 hours a day in a factory for a dollar an hour! Go China People!

for your edification Chinas hard landing

for your edification Chinas hard landing

:rolleyes: Yeah right ...and at the same time Editorial Director of Taipan Publishing Group, Mr. Justice Litle, writes:

"Now, thanks to a 'secret' deal cut with a Communist Party hero, you could start making four times your money off this company tomorrow. Act immediately and you could.......blahblahblah..." same-same as above.

Writing "IF" articles and promote China at the same time.

SO: hurry and start making FOUR TIMES YOUR MONEY.....TOMORROW!!

I tripled it yesterday and left the "four times" for you guys. :whistling:

LaoPo

not suggesting you buy subscription but rather look at the other side of the coin

balance it out with a few facts and figures from every source

take a different view - another angle

from the top down

side to side

the whole financial crisis is smoke and mirrors and we aint seen the end yet

so take it all in a decide which way your going to go

so you gotta ask yourself

do ya feel lucky punk

well

do ya?

PS the report is from Societe Generale, the French investment bank, has put together a special report titled 'The Dragon which played with fire.' The report is focused on risks of a China hard landing, and possible actions to take in light of one.

Edited by BlackJack
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Fwiw here is my time line:

higher interest rates in emerging markets -> emerging markets stocks down -> less dollar demand in emerging markets -> more dollars in the usa -> higher prices in the usa -> more Fed bond buying -> higher US stock market -> emerging markets transforming their economies to rely more heavily on domestic consumption -> even higher prices in the usa -> even more Fed money printing -> even higher usa stock market -> even higher prices in the usa -> USA EXPLODES

Obama's whole plan is for the explosion to occur after 2012.

B)

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Fwiw here is my time line:

higher interest rates in emerging markets -> emerging markets stocks down -> less dollar demand in emerging markets -> more dollars in the usa -> higher prices in the usa -> more Fed bond buying -> higher US stock market -> emerging markets transforming their economies to rely more heavily on domestic consumption -> even higher prices in the usa -> even more Fed money printing -> even higher usa stock market -> even higher prices in the usa -> USA EXPLODES

Obama's whole plan is for the explosion to occur after 2012.

B)

" explosion " or " implosion " - imo the latter ? :blink:

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not suggesting you buy subscription but rather look at the other side of the coin

balance it out with a few facts and figures from every source

take a different view - another angle

from the top down

side to side

the whole financial crisis is smoke and mirrors and we aint seen the end yet

so take it all in a decide which way your going to go

so you gotta ask yourself

do ya feel lucky punk

well

do ya?

PS the report is from Societe Generale, the French investment bank, has put together a special report titled 'The Dragon which played with fire.' The report is focused on risks of a China hard landing, and possible actions to take in light of one.

That's what I'm doing day-in-day-out, looking at both sides of the coin and the overwhelming flood of reports by @nalysts, from all over the world, doesn't make it any easier since all of them project another light on both stories, Western, Asian an Brick countries involved.

ALL of them know better than the other so it's hard to keep up and the truth is somewhere in the middle; maybe some of you remember the IT stocks debacle? Right before the domino stones started falling over, ALL of those @nalysts (including the ones from SG), predicted that the sky was the limit...right...the sky on the bottom of the oceans... <_<

I read many reports on a daily basis and I believe not a single report, from whatever source; I only believe in myself and my opinion, based on a filter in my head, filtering all those stories, reports and news, published in a few languages.

AFTER that, I phone Naam's gardener and together we come to a conclusion; that's my secret ;)

LaoPo

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I read many reports on a daily basis and I believe not a single report, from whatever source; I only believe in myself and my opinion, based on a filter in my head, filtering all those stories, reports and news, published in a few languages.

AFTER that, I phone Naam's gardener and together we come to a conclusion; that's my secret ;)

LaoPo

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I read many reports on a daily basis

do you receive our near daily "anal"-reports without problems? i had a few complaints that the "EM-handbook" (distributed january 24) arrived in a number of mailboxes truncated and has to be resent again.

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