Financial Crisis

[flying]

Gerald Celente

Edited June 20, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

Is this thread running out of steam?

not at all! it gets better day by day. but i have to be careful not to read any postings whilst sipping some sweet drink. simple reason: i own a dozen keyboards or so but i only like the one i am using since several years. a heavy sweet Port, Sherry or juice (spit over the keyboard when roaring with laughter) would clog most of the key contacts and i'd be in real problems.

no problems, but in fact quite interesting are tales of Japan secretly disposing of UST. this is what i think the preparations were:

-BANZAI Finance Minister!

-BANZAI Prime Minister!

-Pearl Harbor not work and enemy made us buy too much tleasuly bonds.

-HAI PM!

-what can do FM?

-velly difficurt PM.

-no bliriant idea FM?

-maybe we sell UST?

-yes, but must be seclet!

-we use swiss bank? all swiss bank too mutt seclecy.

-good idea!

-how we get UST to swiss bank?

-we take UST flom safe centlar bank, put in suit case double bottom and let emproyees fry to Loma, Itary.

-and then?

-emproyees take tlain flom Loma to Chiasso and then go swiss bank where make change UST into cash.

-how we get cash 134 birrion to Rand of Lising Sun?

-we contact our fliends in Lussia, lent Antonov big airclaft for small money and fry cash to Tokyo.

-EXCELLENT Finance Minister. prease ploceed immediately.

[midas]

Is this thread running out of steam?

not at all! it gets better day by day. but i have to be careful not to read any postings whilst sipping some sweet drink. simple reason: i own a dozen keyboards or so but i only like the one i am using since several years. a heavy sweet Port, Sherry or juice (spit over the keyboard when roaring with laughter) would clog most of the key contacts and i'd be in real problems.

From News on Japan:

"The $134.5 billion was the exact amount remaining in the TARP fund on March 30. Coincidence? And add to this the fact that this story - front-page pedigree be the bonds real or Memorex - has been virtually blacked out by the U.S. mainstream media."

Consulate in Milan confirms 2 men carrying forged U.S. bonds as Japanese

Friday 19th June, 08:17 AM JST

ROME —

The Japanese consulate general in Milan said Thursday it has confirmed that two men who were briefly detained by Italian police after attempting to enter Switzerland with $134 billion worth of U.S. bonds were Japanese citizens.

The two in their 50s and 60s were questioned by Italian investigators on June 1 at a train station in Chiasso, at the border with Switzerland about 50 kilometers north of Milan. Most of the bonds they were carrying were later found to be bogus, according to diplomatic sources.

The men were released later that day after an Italian lawyer provided fidelity guarantee for them. The Italian authorities continue to probe how the two obtained the bonds and why they were trying to take the fake securities to Switzerland.

The consulate general said it has not confirmed the whereabouts of the men as Italian authorities are providing no information about them. The two were heading to Zurich by train when they were detained.

The forged bonds appeared shoddy and some of them had face values that were nonexistent. The Italian authorities said they wonder why the securities were produced because the bonds cannot be used even for fraud in view of their poor quality.

http://www.japantoday.com/category/crime/v...nds-as-japanese

[flying]

Supposedly there is no such thing as a Kennedy Bond and the total supply of paper US Gov bearer bonds is less than US$150m (yes that's an m.)

Not that it matters but if you search unredeemed bearer bonds many say 100 billion as the number outstanding

Like this woman mentions at about 28 seconds into this vid

Like I said doesn't matter but was curious

Edited June 21, 2009 by flying

[midas]

note is has a serial number and i dont think anyone would handover the money

without checking its authenticity.............so why bother to fake ?

[cloudhopper]

To all those who think foreign governments are or will be dumping their USTs, either surreptitiously or on the open market -

Who are their buyers going to be?

[AlexLah]

CH, I have here a thousand dollar, are you willing to exchange them for 25.000 THB, or 1.5 Baht Gold for example?

[AlexLah]

Sorry the whole post I was editing partly went into digital heaven.

CH, I have here a thousand dollar, are you willing to exchange them for 25.000 THB, or 1.5 Baht Gold for example?

Here another example of MSM (BBC) making a "mistake" http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/theeditors/2009...y_happened.html

Teletiger, these wars are illegal because of the reasons said like : WMD, and chasing some raghead with a beard.

But hey, it provides a lot of peeps with a job and keeps the military industry going and make huge profits and save a lot of money

on storing nukulah waste as instead it can be used as "depleted" uranium ammunition. These wars are a great contributor to US GDP.

Now with the US having some (problem) financial crisis which is now admitted by Larry Summers and Geithner mainly caused by the big investment banks and insurance company AIG, the question is, what is the plan to get all these millions of jobless people a job again.

A while ago the US army changed some rule and now people can apply for a job up to 40 or 44 years of age (will provide link later) , I wonder why?

Ask yourself why are these needed?

How about a world without paper money and metal coins, something I mentioned a year ago or something, well guess what:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story...617-643,00.html

[flying]

Is this the death of the dollar?

After two smugglers were stopped last week with what at first appeared to be $134bn in US state bonds, the tension and paranoia surrounding the fate of the dollar hit a new high.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...the-dollar.html

[Naam]

To all those who think foreign governments are or will be dumping their USTs, either surreptitiously or on the open market -

Who are their buyers going to be?

do you really expect an answer CH?

[flying]

To all those who think foreign governments are or will be dumping their USTs, either surreptitiously or on the open market -

Who are their buyers going to be?

do you really expect an answer CH?

Same guys buying a lot of their own bonds now?

Willie goes round in a circle

"Just call the proposed action 'modified quantitative easing,' where the Fed buys bonds from a selected agency or agencies," Wang said. "The effect will be the same -- interest rates will drop, creating demand, and there will be more money in supply. The U.S. economy needs both."

The funny thing is none could make sh!t like this up....Yet here we are

When officials convene on June 23 and 24 in Washington, one idea on the table will be to stretch out over a longer period of time planned purchases of Treasury securities or mortgage-backed securities. Doing so would avoid an abrupt, and perhaps disruptive, end to the buying and give the Fed time to assess the outlook. The Treasury has set out to buy $300 billion of Treasurys by the end of August. It is on a path to buy $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities by the end of this year or early next year.

So far, the Fed has purchased $156.5 billion of government bonds. Officials could also change the mix of their purchases.

It is perfect really!!......Isn't it?

Edited June 21, 2009 by flying

[cloudhopper]

Is this the death of the dollar?

After two smugglers were stopped last week with what at first appeared to be $134bn in US state bonds, the tension and paranoia surrounding the fate of the dollar hit a new high.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...the-dollar.html

From the article - " Referring to the forged Treasury bonds picked up on the Japanese smugglers on the Swiss border, he adds: "There is a message here: we haven't heard much about anyone counterfeiting roubles. That is probably telling you something."

Exactly. Anyone thinking the USD is Charmin should go ahead and short USTs right now. Choke dee...

[Abrak]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...the-dollar.html

I think this Telegraph article is quite interesting in so far as I think it reflects 'Bernanke think' in his monetarist approach to the economy and slightly flies in the face of 'Krugman think' or more a more 'Keynesian' approach. I think Bernanke (and certainly Greenspan) looked at the dollar reserve as an excuse for 'irresponsible' growth, in that they saw the dollar as a reserve currency with its dollar pegs creating a total money supply.

To me the advantages of being a reserve currency in a debt driven economy are obvious to both sides in that creditors will end up sharing in the cost of the mistake. Monetarists like Bernanke obsessed with the influenced of price expectations can also see the advantages of pegged currencies in that they import deflation and hence promote promote growth/productivity (Laffer curves and all that - higher full employment at higher growth rates) while the Keynesians would look towards more of what was happening to the savings ratio and the build up of productive capital.

Still they are both right that the US has one big advantage in that its decline will be subsidized by the fact that it is the world reserve currency which absolves it of paying for much of its excesses (which is just as well because they are many.)

All solutions look pretty grim but if I have to pick between the two I choose Bernanke. Krugman's policies (basically increase the fiscal deficit) will simply end in a decade of lost growth (by his own admission) and are not politically feasible. Bernanke's solutions appear mad and unconventional but maybe that what's needed and appear a logical approach to the problem. I just doubt whether he will hold the post long enough to see through his grand plan.

My worst fear is that America will eventually fall foul to some sort of Christian moral rectitude - that they should pay for the sins of the past. Monetary and fiscal policy will be tightened and the economy will slip back into a worse recession than we are seeing now within 3 or 4 years.

[Abrak]

Is this the death of the dollar?

After two smugglers were stopped last week with what at first appeared to be $134bn in US state bonds, the tension and paranoia surrounding the fate of the dollar hit a new high.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...the-dollar.html

BTW if anyone doesnt get how being the world reserve currency means that creditors pay for your mistakes consider this.

Lets assume the world was upside down and the dollar was pegged to the yuan and all those USTs were YTs. Now everyone is looking at the USA - not arguing that they cannot repay their USTs but they cannot repay their YTs cos their currency is way overvalued and is going to depreciate. Remember the financial system is being financed on YTs too. US interests rates are at 13% to protect the peg. GDP is declining 10%+.

That makes people even less confident of YT repayments, so interest rates rise further. Eventually the peg goes, a financial system that almost imploded under a UST system totally implodes as YST liabilities increase in US$ terms. Housing market based on low cost YST loans falls further. Total shambles. IMF takes a sniff and gives up...

[flying]

Is this the death of the dollar?

After two smugglers were stopped last week with what at first appeared to be $134bn in US state bonds, the tension and paranoia surrounding the fate of the dollar hit a new high.

From the article - " Referring to the forged Treasury bonds picked up on the Japanese smugglers on the Swiss border, he adds: "There is a message here: we haven't heard much about anyone counterfeiting roubles. That is probably telling you something."

Exactly. Anyone thinking the USD is Charmin should go ahead and short USTs right now. Choke dee...

Or short the Ruble right? .........Or

According to Stephen Jen of BlueGold Capital Management: "People are having second thoughts not simply because they don't like the dollar, but they are having second thoughts about whether US assets are obviously the strongest assets to own."

You know I for one have never said the USD will disappear completely. Just because someone wants to hold less of something is not always a risk based decision.

Also we haven't heard much about anyone counterfeiting pounds...francs...yen...etc.

Then again this situation wouldn't fit any of those....

Neil Mellor, of Bank of New York Mellon, said: "We've got a situation where Geithner is smiling and has no choice but to stress the credibility and stability of the US financial and economic system, while the creditors [such as the Chinese] smile back and say they believe him, while at the same time giving hand signals to their reserve managers to get rid of these things."

Edited June 21, 2009 by flying

[flying]

Still they are both right that the US has one big advantage in that its decline will be subsidized by the fact that it is the world reserve currency which absolves it of paying for much of its excesses (which is just as well because they are many.)

I think Seigniorage/Seignorage ? May be a bit more than a big advantage

When a global financial crisis occurs. I can see how others will look at us & at some point get pretty upset with it. How upset remains to be seen.

http://economics.about.com/od/economicsglo.../seignorage.htm

Edited June 21, 2009 by flying

[Abrak]

The reason I am so reluctant to hold dollars however oversold they are is Bernanke intellectual career is based on destroying its value for the benefit of avoiding deflationary forces. It just seems about as sensible as walking into a minefield that has a big sign saying 'this is a minefield' - actually somewhat worse as, at least you probably wouldnt live to regret that decision if you got it wrong.

I am reminded of a famous saying 'Generally bear markets go through three psychological phases - "denial", "concern", and then "fear & capitulation". Most often, but not always, the market rallies between each phase.' Apparently we have passed denial.

It just seems we are at the 'concern' level now. China and say Russia knew they were up shit creek before but didnt say anything because it would possibly only make matters worse. Arguably they even helped support the dollar - maybe. Now that their surpluses have disappeared, they are caught in a 'bull trap' and cant support the dollar if they wanted to.

Next year, I guess, China may become dependent on debt to finance its growth and may want to even issue Panda bonds or US$ bonds. If the general view is the dollar is going to fall then the interest rate will be high, so they could sell their USTs to finance their deficit, rates may go higher and USTs lower. Eventually they have to have their own currency.

I just wonder whether 'fear and capitulation' comes first.

Edited June 21, 2009 by Abrak

[flying]

Bernanke intellectual career is based on destroying its value for the benefit of avoiding deflationary forces

Eventually they have to have their own currency.

I just wonder whether 'fear and capitulation' comes first.

Good Post Abrak

I think your comment about having their own currency is something that they & a few others have realized.

[flying]

Are they serious?

Goldman to make record bonus payout

Surviving banks accused of undermining stability

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/ju...-bonus-payments

Staff at Goldman Sachs staff can look forward to the biggest bonus payouts in the firm's 140-year history after a spectacular first half of the year, sparking concern that the big investment banks which survived the credit crunch will derail financial regulation reforms.

Edited June 21, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

Is this the death of the dollar?

After two smugglers were stopped last week with what at first appeared to be $134bn in US state bonds, the tension and paranoia surrounding the fate of the dollar hit a new high.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...the-dollar.html

From the article - " Referring to the forged Treasury bonds picked up on the Japanese smugglers on the Swiss border, he adds: "There is a message here: we haven't heard much about anyone counterfeiting roubles. That is probably telling you something."

Exactly. Anyone thinking the USD is Charmin should go ahead and short USTs right now. Choke dee...

it is interesting to see that the stupidity of jour@sslists seems to be without any limits.

[Naam]

my dog just informed me that he read in www.seeking_bullshit.blogspotplanet.com that the Bilderbergs are planning to aggravate the global financial crisis by adulterating dog food with cat food which has to be paid for in precious metals as payment in UST will be rejected.

do you think he is pulling a fast one or could he be right and we should discuss that problem?

[midas]

I will guarantee that the finance sector will one area. Overall, my crystal ball is no better than yours but when/if CONFIDENCE is restored employers will employ. When/if DEMAND returns increased employment will follow.

Chaima well i I hope the finance sector can make up for the loss in these other areas

This is point I am making..........the trend is the wrong way ?

Business support jobs to implode by 2013, says CEBR

More than 300,000 jobs will disappear in the business services sector by 2013 as contractions in both the private and public sectors take their toll.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...br-1712417.html

[badge]

After two smugglers were stopped last week with what at first appeared to be $134bn in US state bonds, the tension and paranoia surrounding the fate of the dollar hit a new high.

No it did'nt.

I recall years ago $1.5bln of USTs were found in Manila too. They were fake. The owners get arrested. End of story.

[midas]

After two smugglers were stopped last week with what at first appeared to be $134bn in US state bonds, the tension and paranoia surrounding the fate of the dollar hit a new high.

No it did'nt.

I recall years ago $1.5bln of USTs were found in Manila too. They were fake. The owners get arrested. End of story.

But that is the point

In this case the owners were let go ................why ?

And that is why this story will not go away

[flying]

After two smugglers were stopped last week with what at first appeared to be $134bn in US state bonds, the tension and paranoia surrounding the fate of the dollar hit a new high.

No it did'nt.

I recall years ago $1.5bln of USTs were found in Manila too. They were fake. The owners get arrested. End of story.

Did you read the article?

That title was just the usual sensationalism

The article gave just a passing mention to the fake bonds in the first 3 paragraphs.

The other 28 paragraphs was about the dollar sans the bonds story

Edited June 22, 2009 by flying

[flying]

my dog just informed me that he read in www.seeking_bullshit.blogspotplanet.com that the Bilderbergs are planning to aggravate the global financial crisis by adulterating dog food with cat food which has to be paid for in precious metals as payment in UST will be rejected.

do you think he is pulling a fast one or could he be right and we should discuss that problem?

I think for your dog we better stick with pictures eh?

Dees does them best

Edited June 22, 2009 by flying

[midas]

After two smugglers were stopped last week with what at first appeared to be $134bn in US state bonds, the tension and paranoia surrounding the fate of the dollar hit a new high.

No it did'nt.

I recall years ago $1.5bln of USTs were found in Manila too. They were fake. The owners get arrested. End of story. I DONT BELIEVE SO !

The Bond Saga: It Gets More Odd

So let's see if we can try to sort out what we're "learning":

*

The bonds are declared fake by the Treasury, stating that there's only $100 million outstanding and obviously $134 billion have to be fake.

*

Italy claims to have seized $800 million in real US Bonds in the last year.

*

The last legitimate issue of paper US Treasuries (that is publicly admitted to) was in the early 1980s when bearer instruments were outlawed. All are now stated to be electronic (just a serial number and amount.)

*

The two gentlemen are allegedly Japanese, and there are various stories about who they really are - from notorious counterfeiters who have served hard time for previous offenses to Japanese finance officials. Most notably, there has been no public statement from Italy about these gentlemen's actual identities.

*

It appears from all reports that these two were detained but not arrested, with some reports that they were not only released but took the allegedly-fake instruments with them, even though Italian law precludes both your release and return of your fake instruments if you are caught with fake securities or currency.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/authors/2-Karl-Denninger

[cloudhopper]

The reason I am so reluctant to hold dollars however oversold they are is Bernanke intellectual career is based on destroying its value for the benefit of avoiding deflationary forces. It just seems about as sensible as walking into a minefield that has a big sign saying 'this is a minefield' - actually somewhat worse as, at least you probably wouldnt live to regret that decision if you got it wrong.

I am reminded of a famous saying 'Generally bear markets go through three psychological phases - "denial", "concern", and then "fear & capitulation". Most often, but not always, the market rallies between each phase.' Apparently we have passed denial.

It just seems we are at the 'concern' level now. China and say Russia knew they were up shit creek before but didnt say anything because it would possibly only make matters worse. Arguably they even helped support the dollar - maybe. Now that their surpluses have disappeared, they are caught in a 'bull trap' and cant support the dollar if they wanted to.

Next year, I guess, China may become dependent on debt to finance its growth and may want to even issue Panda bonds or US$ bonds. If the general view is the dollar is going to fall then the interest rate will be high, so they could sell their USTs to finance their deficit, rates may go higher and USTs lower. Eventually they have to have their own currency.

I just wonder whether 'fear and capitulation' comes first.

I didn't hear anything about China's surplus disappearing. You have to wonder why half of the UST long bonds were bought by foreign CBs just last week if they thought the USD would crash, much less weren't actually complicit in supporting the USD. All I'm saying is betting against that seems very risky...

[badge]

After two smugglers were stopped last week with what at first appeared to be $134bn in US state bonds, the tension and paranoia surrounding the fate of the dollar hit a new high.

No it did'nt.

I recall years ago $1.5bln of USTs were found in Manila too. They were fake. The owners get arrested. End of story. I DONT BELIEVE SO !

Its the end of the story as far as Im concerned.

Infact within a couple of hours of the news breaking last week, and the Treasury laughing the notion off, it was the end of the stroy as far as Im concerned, as far as the Bond markets concerned, and as far as the USD is concerned.

You disagree.

Have fun

[midas]

Its the end of the story as far as Im concerned.

Infact within a couple of hours of the news breaking last week, and the Treasury laughing the notion off, it was the end of the stroy as far as Im concerned, as far as the Bond markets concerned, and as far as the USD is concerned.

You disagree.

Have fun