Financial Crisis

[jcon]

It's a sad <deleted> world we've arrived at.

Yep.

Remember the good old days when the thread title had "Ready to Kill" in it?

[flying]

It's a sad <deleted> world we've arrived at.

Yep.

Remember the good old days when the thread title had "Ready to Kill" in it?

Well if it makes a diff back in real life they passed the Cap & Trade which is equal to kicking us in the groin while we are down.

Big energy tax disguised as a climate bill. Climate bill that could only change the climate at most 2/10ths of a degree by 2100

In the meantime it will finish industry right when it needed help most.

Unless of course they pay & buy the credits. No need to guess who will pay for those credits eh? Not to worry too much about the title of some thread reality will prove to be much more exciting.

[Naam]

It's a sad <deleted> world we've arrived at.

Yep. Remember the good old days when the thread title had "Ready to Kill" in it?

i quite enjoy reading 12DM's postings... well... most of them. i am well aware that he adores Brown and Darling (the saviours of Brittania) but until now i never found out in what way he is personally affected.

perhaps you elaborate 12DM?

[Datsun240Z]

Even more worrying -> Digital money ? It actually means, there is nothing. Who said all digital money is really there? ..it's not~!

Yeah well one thing that would certainly make Marx roll in his grave (in fits of giggles) if, if the end of capitalism is marked not by revolution, not by war or swine flue but my some computer virus that wipes out all known records of peoples assets and liabilities.

This is not quite as absurd as it sounds. During the Thai financial crisis liabilities were being bought and swapped on a regular basis. I know of two people who actively tried to pay back their liabilities (at a discount) only to find that there was no record of the liabilities actually existing.

Makes me sick, when I log into my E-bank account, see maybe € 4700,00 ? Knowing some incredable hackers just put the " , " a few places to the right and bingo! RETIRE, al your dreams come true.

Image myself working my ass off in the hot sun, for a few louzy bucks, ander to give 25% away on TAX here.

[Abrak]

Makes me sick, when I log into my E-bank account, see maybe € 4700,00 ? Knowing some incredable hackers just put the " , " a few places to the right and bingo! RETIRE, al your dreams come true.

Image myself working my ass off in the hot sun, for a few louzy bucks, ander to give 25% away on TAX here.

Well you should worry?

I have had the same secretary for 12 years. I run my main Thai bank account out of Bangkok while I live in Phuket. I recently sent up a withdrawal slip from my account that the bank rejected because the signature 'didnt look genuine'. So my secretary took another withdrawal slip and signed it in my name on my behalf and that was accepted.

So perhaps I should simply accept that I have transferred by Thai bank a/c wealth to that of my secretary on the basis that she is the only one who can really withdraw it. (Luckily for now I still have an ATM card with an ATM number (but as she knows that too I guess she could change it.)) Evidently I trust her more than bankers.

[AlexLah]

It seems Naam is suffering from dementia as he gets older by the day, not remembering how this financial crisis negatively affected 12 or some other's like myself.

Maybe you have to recheck what is on your breakfast plate as it could be dog poo that your servants are feeding you as you seem to be so obsessed by it.....

Just an observation.

[teletiger]

Anyways I do know I have been overly tough on China in this thread but only because other people will not recognize its inherent political driven weaknesses....

you have been indeed and with all due respect to your overall financial knowledge... your overweighting of China has become quite boring

I tend to agree with Naam on this one. (Except the boring part )

In ways the US and China are very much alike. The Chinese government, through it's Nationalized banks extends low interest loans to Industry. These loans will never be repaid, just rolled over and interest paid each year's end. Sound familiar? Will the US National debt ever be repaid?

How different is this to the farming subsidies, payments to military lobbies for R&D, TARP, mortgage bailouts, auto bailouts, some I've forgotten and a few more to come. Soon.....on a screen near you. One difference is that China gets more "stuff' for it's money.

Regards.

[Abrak]

Here's one of the deflationists arguing that long bonds are the place to be in the second half of the year.

I am more tempted to be an inflationist with Bernanke at the helm but I think he might be right on a trading call. My real view is that I dont have one.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/16525584/Eclectica-Fund

[Datsun240Z]

Makes me sick, when I log into my E-bank account, see maybe € 4700,00 ? Knowing some incredable hackers just put the " , " a few places to the right and bingo! RETIRE, al your dreams come true.

Image myself working my ass off in the hot sun, for a few louzy bucks, ander to give 25% away on TAX here.

Well you should worry?

I have had the same secretary for 12 years. I run my main Thai bank account out of Bangkok while I live in Phuket. I recently sent up a withdrawal slip from my account that the bank rejected because the signature 'didnt look genuine'. So my secretary took another withdrawal slip and signed it in my name on my behalf and that was accepted.

So perhaps I should simply accept that I have transferred by Thai bank a/c wealth to that of my secretary on the basis that she is the only one who can really withdraw it. (Luckily for now I still have an ATM card with an ATM number (but as she knows that too I guess she could change it.)) Evidently I trust her more than bankers.

MONEY MEANS NOTHING, IF YOU CAN'T BUY SHIT

[teletiger]

Here's one of the deflationists arguing that long bonds are the place to be in the second half of the year.

I am more tempted to be an inflationist with Bernanke at the helm but I think he might be right on a trading call. My real view is that I dont have one.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/16525584/Eclectica-Fund

"These bonds have an average yield of 8% and I would be happy to take you through it's finer details on request"

Is that a sales pitch Abrak?

"Deflation is a stronger wind than most observers think, for demographic reasons: the aging world population wants to defer consumption in order to buy securities , that is, trade present goods for future goods. Like Japan in the 1990s, that is deflationary".

"Nonetheless, one can’t keep swinging a sledge-hammer at the pilings of the American economy without consequences. The danger that world may dive into alternatives to the dollar — hard assets of all sorts — is substantial, even if it isn’t immediate". (Then again, if Israel bombs Iran’s nuclear facilities and Iran closes the Straits of Hormuz, we could reach the long-term a lot quicker than we might have thought).--end quote.

http://blog.atimes.net/?p=1066

Maybe he'll have both to deal with....lucky boy.

Regards.

Edit--quote-marks.

Edited June 28, 2009 by teletiger

[badge]

http://www.scribd.com/doc/16525584/Eclectica-Fund

"These bonds have an average yield of 8% and I would be happy to take you through it's finer details on request"

Is that a sales pitch Abrak?

Edit--quote-marks.

This report is Fund Commentary, its sent to Fund investors, so its unlikely to be a sales pitch as their money is already with Eclectica.

Hugh Hendry has a very tenuous record. Last year he had his best year ever I believe, returning in the region of 35%. The preceding 5yrs were all loses(in a time when benchmarks did very well).

[Naam]

It seems Naam is suffering from dementia as he gets older by the day, not remembering how this financial crisis negatively affected 12 or some other's like myself.

Maybe you have to recheck what is on your breakfast plate as it could be dog poo that your servants are feeding you as you seem to be so obsessed by it.....

Just an observation.

Alex, shall we "recheck" and compare our portfolios to find out what different results alleged old age dementia and young vigorous brain cells (like yours) provide during a crisis?

by the way, my question was directed at 12DMChang. i am sure that he can answer for himself and does not need your assistance. how the crisis affected you is besides the point.

p.s. keep on observing, watch out for UFOs, falling skies and global conspiracies. the Bilderbergs and Illuminati are out to get you! YOUTUBE IS YOUR FRIEND!

[Abrak]

"These bonds have an average yield of 8% and I would be happy to take you through it's finer details on request"

Is that a sales pitch Abrak?

Well it might be a pitch from them but certainly not from me. I know nothing about bonds, have never owned one (apart from convertibles) and I doubt I ever will. If I ever do recommend one, then it will probably be a good time to liquify tour holdings. Ido look at the occasionally because my portfolio is not properly hedged by the possibility of deflation (which although I see as unlikely is certainly possible.)

I posted it because I quite like the charts. It also rather supports my sell in may for and go away for equities view especially given the rapidly decline in M2. It seems unlikely that bond yields will head much above 4% on 10 year USTs with inflation fears cooling once again, so given the relative performance I can see some switching out of equities into bonds in the near term.

Hies portfolio of highly cash generative businesses with good yielding bonds seems fairly sensible (might even make you enough to pay the fees to get in and out of his fund and not lose money by Xmas.)

Also I like reading these things - although I missed the equity market (silly me) at least I wasnt stuffed up to the wazoo with bonds. I expect the above fund didnt suffer too badly because the corporate risk premium would have come down But I am looking forward to reading Hoisington Fund's quarterly report after its last one at the end of March confidently stated 'Therefore on a historical basis, U.S. Treasury bonds should maintain its position as the premier asset class as the U.S. economy struggles with declining asset prices, overindebtedness, declining income flows and slow growth'

[BlackJack]

July 2009 monthly mortgage resets are at US$ 15 billion per month

Mid 2007 monthly mortgage resets hit US$20 billion per month

CRISIS happens

late 2008 monthly mortgage resets hits US$ 35 billion per month

ongoing crisis

GREEN shoots in 2nd quarter of 2009 - (wall street nonsense sucker talk)

October 2009 to November 2011 mortgage resets hit us$38 billion per month

US$20 million per month in mortgage resets brought down Lehman Bros, Bear Sterns, Iceland. Going going gone are BAnk of America, ROyal Bank of Scotland, AIG, California, JApan.

Currency supply doubled (quantitative easing) in the last 2 years from us$850 billion to us$1700 billion = inflation

The printing presses are running flat out around the World = inflation

October 2009 to November 2011 mortgage resets hit us$38 billion per month (PLUS) = big inflation

NOT a conspiracy theory and happening now on planet earth!!!

So what do you do if YOU KNOW there is going to be inflation??

Think people think - instead of slagging each other off.

[Abrak]

The printing presses are running flat out around the World = inflation

October 2009 to November 2011 mortgage resets hit us$38 billion per month (PLUS) = big inflation

NOT a conspiracy theory and happening now on planet earth!!!

So what do you do if YOU KNOW there is going to be inflation??

Think people think - instead of slagging each other off.

Well if you KNOW there is going to be inflation then...

(1) You can buy TFT which is a short of the 20 year long bond - as long as the interest rate rise in line with inflation and the real yield doesnt fall then this should do very well.

(2) You can buy TIPs which have a fixed real yield index linked to the CPI

(3) You can buy gold that is an inflation hedge (but to the extent inflation is mild say 3-4%) then it may not do well as it is also seen as a hedge against risk, one of which if hyperdeflation.

(4) Finally, (if you see inflation at 3-4% as a result of a recovering economy) then equities will do well their value is based on discounted nominal earnings (and gold wont). However inflation of above 4% (according to Russell Napier) is bad for equities.

I think TIPs which at 10years is discounting 1.8% inflation p.a and TFT are your best bets. I am afraid I dont know enough about them to say which is the most highly geared - a 20 year TIP or TFT given a flat real yield but I suspect TFT is. It also has the advantage of being based more on peoples real perception of inflation rather than fudged CPI. I am sure there are some other good inflation plays out there but these are worth a look.

My concern with your argument is the basic underlying 'assumption'. I am worried that the QE we have see to date has simply replaced 'tertiary' money supply (which isnt included in say M2) that has been destroyed by the financial crisis. So this was not inflationary it simply prevented deflation.

IF you look at the Fed Res Funds Flow the numbers are all over the place

[BlackJack]

The printing presses are running flat out around the World = inflation

October 2009 to November 2011 mortgage resets hit us$38 billion per month (PLUS) = big inflation

NOT a conspiracy theory and happening now on planet earth!!!

So what do you do if YOU KNOW there is going to be inflation??

Think people think - instead of slagging each other off.

Well if you KNOW there is going to be inflation then...

(1) You can buy TFT which is a short of the 20 year long bond - as long as the interest rate rise in line with inflation and the real yield doesnt fall then this should do very well.

(2) You can buy TIPs which have a fixed real yield index linked to the CPI

(3) You can buy gold that is an inflation hedge (but to the extent inflation is mild say 3-4%) then it may not do well as it is also seen as a hedge against risk, one of which if hyperdeflation.

(4) Finally, (if you see inflation at 3-4% as a result of a recovering economy) then equities will do well their value is based on discounted nominal earnings (and gold wont). However inflation of above 4% (according to Russell Napier) is bad for equities.

I think TIPs which at 10years is discounting 1.8% inflation p.a and TFT are your best bets. I am afraid I dont know enough about them to say which is the most highly geared - a 20 year TIP or TFT given a flat real yield but I suspect TFT is. It also has the advantage of being based more on peoples real perception of inflation rather than fudged CPI. I am sure there are some other good inflation plays out there but these are worth a look.

My concern with your argument is the basic underlying 'assumption'. I am worried that the QE we have see to date has simply replaced 'tertiary' money supply (which isnt included in say M2) that has been destroyed by the financial crisis. So this was not inflationary it simply prevented deflation.

IF you look at the Fed Res Funds Flow the numbers are all over the place

i am talking hyper inflation

[Abrak]

BTW as another inflation play you could always buy the Traditional Halifax Property Price Index Futures.

I think the index is at about GBP155k.

The one year future is -GBP19k

The 3 year future is -GBP21k

And the 5 year future is -GBP17.5k

Those numbers are not a lot changed from 3 months ago despite some optimistic indicators out from the market. If you KNOW there is going to be inflation that 5 year future looks pretty attractive.

[lannarebirth]

July 2009 monthly mortgage resets are at US$ 15 billion per month

Mid 2007 monthly mortgage resets hit US$20 billion per month

CRISIS happens

late 2008 monthly mortgage resets hits US$ 35 billion per month

ongoing crisis

GREEN shoots in 2nd quarter of 2009 - (wall street nonsense sucker talk)

October 2009 to November 2011 mortgage resets hit us$38 billion per month

US$20 million per month in mortgage resets brought down Lehman Bros, Bear Sterns, Iceland. Going going gone are BAnk of America, ROyal Bank of Scotland, AIG, California, JApan.

Currency supply doubled (quantitative easing) in the last 2 years from us$850 billion to us$1700 billion = inflation

The printing presses are running flat out around the World = inflation

October 2009 to November 2011 mortgage resets hit us$38 billion per month (PLUS) = big inflation

NOT a conspiracy theory and happening now on planet earth!!!

So what do you do if YOU KNOW there is going to be inflation??

Think people think - instead of slagging each other off.

If I had one of those ARM's that was due to reset in a year or two, and I just knew there was inflation coming, I'd have already refied a fixed rate mortgae by now. Perhaps others have as well.

[Abrak]

i am talking hyper inflation

Ok, so if you KNOW there is going to be hyper-inflation.

This is theoretically a wet dream for PMs in that it is both risk and inflation so gold (and even consider silver which is more highly geared.) Problem is there are no guarantees. It should do well but it is only perception.

The other problem is that we dont know what is going to happen to real interest rates but I suspect that hyper inflation will first be marked by negative real rates to inflate away debts and then high real rates to bring down inflation.

On that basis, TIPs with a guaranteed indexed linked real return should be your best bet - reasonably long dated - at least 10 years.

BTW the sensible thing to do is to have some of each because the price movement of the two are not particular highly correlated even with regards to inflation. This is for a number of reasons (1) Gold is more volatile (2) rising inflation is usually associated with rising real yields to stop it so index linked underperform (but this shouldnt happen this time or else buy TFT) and (3) Gold is a dollar hedge. (I also think you should look at TFT - the value destruction under hyperflation might give you more leverage there even assuming negative real rates.)

Edited June 29, 2009 by Abrak

[badge]

i am talking hyper inflation

we call it something different where I come from

[ronz28]

A few more retailers closing in USA:

Rite Aid: As Many as 117 Stores

J. Jill: 75 Stores

Jones Apparel: 225 Stores

Jo-Ann Stores: 30 Stores

Whataburger: 14 Locations

Advanced Auto Parts: 40-55 Stores

Waldenbooks: 250 Stores

Advance America Cash Advance Centers: 130 Locations

Ruehl: All 29 Stores

Boater's World: 129 Stores

General Motors: Over 1,000 Dealerships

Chrysler: 789 Dealerships

PacSun: 35-50 This Year & 150 Over 3 years

http://www.walletpop.com/specials/retail-s...s-closing-doors

Anything like this going on in Thailand yet?

[lannarebirth]

Anyways I do know I have been overly tough on China in this thread but only because other people will not recognize its inherent political driven weaknesses....

Simply read this article...

"Even though state-controlled enterprises produce between one-quarter and one-third of all output in the country, they receive more than 75 per cent of the country's capital, and the figure is rising.

China's state sector owns almost two-thirds of all fixed assets in the country. This is the reverse of what occurred in South Korea (as well as Japan and Taiwan), where the private sector received more than three-quarters of all capital during the 1960s and 1970s."

"The massive bias towards the state sector would be acceptable if the 120,000 state-controlled enterprises could learn to innovate and adapt. Unfortunately, except for a handful of centrally managed state-controlled enterprises, this is not the case.

To put the situation in perspective: China's overall use of capital is half as efficient as India's. World Bank findings indicate that about one-third of recent investments made by the state-controlled sector generated zero or negative returns. This might increase the chances of the Chinese Communist Party remaining in power, but at enormous cost to the country."

http://www.nst.com.my/Current_News/NST/Tue...icle/index_html

I do not believe I am putting forward a conspiracy theory here. Merely pointing out one of the tragic inherent weaknesses of its growth model. Perhaps everything that I wish to say and needs to be said about China and its ultimate failings is said in the above article. You see if what is written is true ultimately no rational capitalist will be willing to do business in the country and then you will be left back at square one - with nothing but the state (and of course a financial crisis.)

Given that I believe there is a truely productive private sector hiding behind a truely non-productive public one - it would surely be criminal if the result of this financial crisis was to crowd out the genuine private sector by creating growth through artificial non-productive quasi public sector investment.

I'm shocked! Shocked I tell you!

<H1><H1>Reports: China loan spree goes to stocks, property

Reports: China lending spree going to stocks, real estate; economists warn of bubbles

• On Monday June 29, 2009, 7:17 am EDT
  

• 
  

SHANGHAI (AP) -- China risks frittering away its stimulus spending on speculation in stocks and real estate, reports said Monday, citing economists who say surging bank loans risk inflating risky asset bubbles.

The comments by prominent economists came as Shanghai's benchmark Composite Index hit another high for the year, gaining 1.6 percent, or 47.10 points, to 2,975.31. The index has gained more than 60 percent since the beginning of the year.

While recent gains in shares and property prices are a welcome respite for investors, putting funds meant for stimulus projects into speculative investments could undermine the government's effort to boost growth and reduce the economy's heavy reliance on exports.

About 20 percent of bank lending is going into stock speculation, and another 30 percent or so is going into the property market, state-run newspapers cited Wei Jianing, an economist with a Cabinet-level think tank, as saying.

</H1></H1>http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Reports-Chin...sset=&ccode=

[ronz28]

Refinancing an Adjustable Rate Mortgage is not an option for many because the appraised value of their home has dropped far enough below the mortgage balance that they cannot come up with the difference in cash to refinance at the current appraised value. Lending standards are tougher now and some have lost their jobs and are living off of credit cards. It feels like another flush is coming.

[flying]

If I had one of those ARM's that was due to reset in a year or two, and I just knew there was inflation coming, I'd have already refied a fixed rate mortgae by now. Perhaps others have as well.

I can tell you why many have not done so here in the US..........

When they took out their original ARM their house was worth...

Well..... I should say the price they paid was..... because it was never *worth*

what they paid.

There in lies the rub............

They bought a house for say 600k on a interest only or a arm short thinking as you said they would refinance it. In fact most thought the way the market was flying they would probably sell & move up or pull equity.

Well they went to re-fi & find their home is now appraised at 300k....if that.

Re-fi??? hmmmm

As severe as my example sounds trust me the real numbers are that severe & in many areas worse.

Edit : oops I see ronz said the same already.

Anyway this is the truth & also the bigger problems yet to come.

Many many homes are being abandoned even before foreclosure.

Now the banks are doing short sales where they accept an offer of even less than what is owed..

Of course & sounds like a good cut your loss & run strategy.

Yet they accept the offer & then have no limit of time to act on it.

I know speculators here that have waited 8 months while a bank holds their deposit.

Very messed up... Then to make it worse they are sitting on the ones they really should let go

& yet they release for a cheap price the ones that they probably should have waited on & could

have done better. No rhyme or reason to it....really.

Edited June 29, 2009 by flying

[flying]

http://www.reuters.com/article/wtUSInvesti...E55P51I20090626

U.S. housing misery poised to enter new phase

Hmmmm

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=azdWynpwVWN0

Faber Doesn't See New Stock Market Lows; Favors Gold: Video

Edited June 29, 2009 by flying

[lannarebirth]

If I had one of those ARM's that was due to reset in a year or two, and I just knew there was inflation coming, I'd have already refied a fixed rate mortgae by now. Perhaps others have as well.

I can tell you why many have not done so here in the US..........

When they took out their original ARM their house was worth...

Well..... I should say the price they paid was..... because it was never *worth*

what they paid.

There in lies the rub............

They bought a house for say 600k on a interest only or a arm short thinking as you said they would refinance it. In fact most thought the way the market was flying they would probably sell & move up or pull equity.

Well they went to re-fi & find their home is now appraised at 300k....if that.

Re-fi??? hmmmm

As severe as my example sounds trust me the real numbers are that severe & in many areas worse.

Edit : oops I see ronz said the same already.

Anyway this is the truth & also the bigger problems yet to come.

Many many homes are being abandoned even before foreclosure.

Now the banks are doing short sales where they accept an offer of even less than what is owed..

Of course & sounds like a good cut your loss & run strategy.

Yet they accept the offer & then have no limit of time to act on it.

I know speculators here that have waited 8 months while a bank holds their deposit.

Very messed up... Then to make it worse they are sitting on the ones they really should let go

& yet they release for a cheap price the ones that they probably should have waited on & could

have done better. No rhyme or reason to it....really.

I'm sure that's true and I have read similar elsewhere, but I just can't relate to that. The only way I would ever consideran ARM is if I had the full amount on deposit somewhere drawing greater interest than my mortgage.

[flying]

I'm sure that's true and I have read similar elsewhere, but I just can't relate to that. The only way I would ever consider an ARM is if I had the full amount on deposit somewhere drawing greater interest than my mortgage.

Well that is because your a smart person with resources.

The majority of ARM owners are by products of NINJA loans.

Just trying to get their first home.

And also of course there are the just plain greedy non thinking folks.

During the boom they all thought that all they had to do was get financed.

In a year they would flip the homes & make 100k at least easy.....

So they thought..........

Edited June 29, 2009 by flying

[Abrak]

http://www.reuters.com/article/wtUSInvesti...E55P51I20090626

U.S. housing misery poised to enter new phase

The UK seems to be a bit different - there is definitely signs of life.

You have heard of it anecdotally now you are seeing it in some of the indices (which tend to lag.).

Here is Kensington and Chelsea as of May....

http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/houseprice...%202009&t=1

Obviously this is the very top end of London property... but some low end areas are also showing signs of life...

http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/houseprice...%202009&t=1

Now these are very selective charts, I could have chosen others with prices going straight down. The TOTAL market FELL 0.2% last month. The Kensington and Chelsea one wasnt that selective in that it was in response to a comment that someone made to me that prices turned 2 to 3 months ago, offers had been withdrawn and prices were now nearly back up to previous highs in 'prime areas of London'.

This is just about possible.

The signs of a turn are there though - unlike the US a) there is not a large overhang of supply and it appears that most people borrow based on short term interest rates so the average mortgage rate is 3.28% down some 200 basis points from a year ago in stark contrast to the US where it is over 5% down say 75 basis points.

Those futures prices look a pretty good trade to me....

[flying]

The signs of a turn are there though - unlike the US a) there is not a large overhang of supply and it appears that most people borrow based on short term interest rates so the average mortgage rate is 3.28% down some 200 basis points from a year ago in stark contrast to the US where it is over 5% down say 75 basis points.

Those futures prices look a pretty good trade to me....

You need to see if you folks have a chart like this one.

Then you can take a peek ahead

[Abrak]

Hmmmm

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=azdWynpwVWN0

Faber Doesn't See New Stock Market Lows; Favors Gold: Video

I cant see the video but I can imagine what he is saying from his commentaries. First he envisages a hyperinflationary end game so while he might not see new market lows in stocks in nominal terms he is not that bullish. He has a mixed view on stocks.... On the one hand there are some big cash calls coming through caused by the market bounce and high interest rates...

...as well as insider selling...

But on the other sentiment is decidely bearish pointing the fact we havent hit a major high yet...

He just likes equities better than bonds because of charts like this which will only improve with inflation...

Obviously he likes commodities best of all and those least affected by short term slow/negative growth i.e. gold best (also likes sugar). Apologies for over simplification (cant post a link.)

The reason I dont really buy the hyperinflation argument (although its a possibility) is just looking at M2 in the last 2 months. The Fed has still been active in QE and yet M2 has actually fallen. To assume QE must lead to hyperinflation is a massive extrapolation. Still equally others assume it will lead to no inflation at all which I find equally hard to fathom.