Gold ... Safe-haven Or Ultimate Bear-trap

[lannarebirth]

Yes, now I have a clue to the wavecount.

We are in wave 3 down. In the larger context of my original call for wave C down on the daily chart, this current move would be wave 3 of (1) down.

I'll post a chart tomorrow.

If there are any 60-min. players, this is a huge chunk of profit for high leverage entries, so make sure you close out partial positions with trailing stops at a notch above each 1H bar. Don't get careless here. Wave 3 rides are for alert individuals as the profit per millimetre is substantial on even moderate leverage.

For my friend lannarebirth, when the Devil tempted Jesus he said, "behold, all this shall I give to thee, if .......

We know that Jesus turned him down. Why? ... Because he knew what Bobby Prechter defined so thoroughly (in his book) was just around the corner, "Wave 3s are wonders to behold"

Yes, I know.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=2244984

Anyway, nice trade, though it looks like you left a little on the table.

-----------------------------------

Thanks. Actually I left alot on the table but can't see myself trading on the 1H timeframe - too strenuous. Anyway I've analyzed this trade for errors. If you read the posts, let me know if you have other suggestions - other than suggesting I TRASH Elliottwave analysis.

By the way, noticed you use quite a few indicators in your charts - in a prev. Euro index chart you had, I believe, 3 indicators. Why?

I don't use indicators much, except to be aware if negative divergances are forming. I do like some, such as Price/Volume overlay to see if there is a potential "vacuum" in the market. My primary tools are Time, Price, and trendlines and the application of fibonacci, Golden Ratio, Lucas to them. Especially Time, which is much more important to me than price. Also I find "thinking like a criminal" can be quite helpful.

[churchill]

Dennis Gartman says he doesn't like being bullish on gold but now is a reluctant bull .

Edited March 20, 2009 by churchill

[Harmonica]

SHORT opened @ $957.1

STOP above the top @ 958.7

a low-leverage opening position to test the waters

------------------------------

Stopped out! Trade terminated.

-------------------------------------------

New market order for SHORT @ $953.25 - current price @ $963.7. So the order has not triggered yet.

--------------------------------------------

STOP on triggered SHORT from Friday = $965. Why? Because that if Price goes above that, I'm wrong.

[Harmonica]

Prof. Charles Bassetti's current position is LONG on Gold. Don't know what Dennis G's position is currently.

Here's a quote from Bassetti yesterday

"Gold in a quandry. The last few days are a clear buy signal. Sometimes you take a valid signal and get your nose bloodied. That’s life. That’s the markets. The stop is about 5% under the nearest low. Close only. When this market breaks out it will be too late to get aboard. Same for silver. This is a musical chairs market. We are undertaking a complete new analysis to see if a new strategy comes out of that"

-------------------

We've been on opposite sides of Gold since the March 2008 top.

[Harmonica]

SHORT opened @ $957.1

STOP above the top @ 958.7

a low-leverage opening position to test the waters

------------------------------

Stopped out! Trade terminated.

-------------------------------------------

New market order for SHORT @ $953.25 - current price @ $963.7. So the order has not triggered yet.

--------------------------------------------

STOP on triggered SHORT from Friday = $965. Why? Because that if Price goes above that, I'm wrong.

-----------------------------------------

Position closed @ 953.2. I'm flat now. No positions.

[Harmonica]

Everone bullish GOLD and so far they are correct. Trend is UP.

Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter just announced continuation bullmarket in Gold.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

This is just the kind of scene that turns BEAR on, namely, "everyone is on board" - then reverse course and bankrupt the lot of them.

I'm NOT buying Gold .... I believe Gold will go to 650, and possibly 525 or 500 and maybe lower. When complete that will be the time to load up on Gold, not now.

Tha't why I hold Yen and US Dollar and Thai Baht.

Reason: Gold's correction from March 17, 2008 top might not be complete at the Oct 2008 low but just wave A down. We are in wave B up. Yet to come is wave C down. Alternate could be a long-drawn-out sideways triangle stretching for years.

Wave Bs are sucker waves, draw them all in type waves.

Wave C down will send 'em all to the promised land.

-----------------------------------------------

-----------------------------------------------------

Last post for now.

My MAIN forecast for Gold remains unchanged:

Targets $650, $554

lower targets will be added only if there is failure at $554.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Alternative scenarios on the backburner:

Scenario 1:

I'm totally wrong and Gold blows past the previous March 2008 top at $1032 and goes into another bullrun. If this is the case I would probably wait for the corrective wave down to near $1040-60 or thereabouts to BUY physical Gold coins, not trade.

Scenario 2:

Gold prices go into an extended sideways triangle for several, several months, visible on both daily and weekly timeframes.

--------------------------------------------------

[AlexLah]

Hi Harmonica,

You are obviously a bit of a character but that is fine with me.

I can see you are very passionate about what you think you are doing, that's good, you believe in what you do.

I for example are much more interested in what you think and how you perceive what is going on in the world, other then quoting news articles and opinions of others.

Would you mind joining and contributing to the financial crisis thread?

And describe yourself and the position you are in.

I assume you still stay in the US but I could be very wrong about that, I am very interested what your "Feel" is about the situation in the US based on talks with the average US citizen.

What do they think, what do they feel?

Hope you can join and give us a bit of an idea from your point of view.

Kind regards,

Alex

[Umpatan]

For me farm land and a mortage free house is as well a safe-have, or a house with dwellings you can rent to others.

I heard that the Mormons (I am not one nor am I advocating their religion) hoard a year supply of food. When the economy bellies up in the USA, the state of Utah will be the breadbasket of the USA that people will be running to. Any Hurricane Katrina survivors would know how to work through hyperinflation and economic meltdown. The only difference is, there is no Hurricane. The National Guards not getting paid dollars that they can spend properly will not work properly too this time around.

Marines who say Semper Fi and Oorah won't have that loyalty when their country will betray them by giving them worthless hyperinflated dollars. Their Montgomery GI Bills will be worthless, so the US will focus on the problem back home, and ditch Iraq and Afghanistan as money wont be there for them. Obama being a democrat will probably just send the troops home to deal with policing within USA.

Imagine the sleeping security guards who get paid to play video games or read and took the job not because they wanted to be an authority figure but wanted a cushy job so they can watch DVD's all day or even practice Buddhist Meditation (The Art of Zen and the Security Guard) had to be given police powers that they dont want?

[Harmonica]

Everone bullish GOLD and so far they are correct. Trend is UP.

Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter just announced continuation bullmarket in Gold.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

This is just the kind of scene that turns BEAR on, namely, "everyone is on board" - then reverse course and bankrupt the lot of them.

I'm NOT buying Gold .... I believe Gold will go to 650, and possibly 525 or 500 and maybe lower. When complete that will be the time to load up on Gold, not now.

Tha't why I hold Yen and US Dollar and Thai Baht.

Reason: Gold's correction from March 17, 2008 top might not be complete at the Oct 2008 low but just wave A down. We are in wave B up. Yet to come is wave C down. Alternate could be a long-drawn-out sideways triangle stretching for years.

Wave Bs are sucker waves, draw them all in type waves.

Wave C down will send 'em all to the promised land.

-----------------------------------------------

-----------------------------------------------------

Last post for now.

My MAIN forecast for Gold remains unchanged:

Targets $650, $554

lower targets will be added only if there is failure at $554.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Alternative scenarios on the backburner:

Scenario 1:

I'm totally wrong and Gold blows past the previous March 2008 top at $1032 and goes into another bullrun. If this is the case I would probably wait for the corrective wave down to near $1040-60 or thereabouts to BUY physical Gold coins, not trade.

Scenario 2:

Gold prices go into an extended sideways triangle for several, several months, visible on both daily and weekly timeframes.

--------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------

On March 18 ... U.S. Govt. said it would buy its debt with Dollars created out of thin air.

Almost instantly goldbugs around the globe saw this as the sign of the coming of the Gold Christ meaning Gold rocketing to $2k or even perhaps $20k.

And Dennis Gartman bought a significant gold position. His subscribers too.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell has put 30% of his entire net worth into buying Gold.

Prof. Charles Bassetti, ab excellent trader/trend player been buying and buying and calling one buy signal after another. Remember that Gold spike that took Harmonica out of his 4H position? Bassetti saw that as a buy signal from Heaven

Goldbugs loaded up to the hilt for days thereafter.

So what happened days later?

Disillusionment is putting it mildly.

----------------------------------------------

Best way to handle Gold?

Trade it close to the chest for now - on the 1H timeframe and honor your STOPs.

Use BASIC technical analysis, no esoteric methods.

Forget about fundamental reasons why Gold should do this or that because of the terribly economy. Ignore all of it. Don't even bother with News. Price is boss. Price has everything you need to know.

I was not here for the current trade entry so no credit for me this time, but for anyone SHORT like me,

current STOP @ $ 909.46

[trogers]

I started investing in tulips.

[Harmonica]

Everone bullish GOLD and so far they are correct. Trend is UP.

Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter just announced continuation bullmarket in Gold.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

This is just the kind of scene that turns BEAR on, namely, "everyone is on board" - then reverse course and bankrupt the lot of them.

I'm NOT buying Gold .... I believe Gold will go to 650, and possibly 525 or 500 and maybe lower. When complete that will be the time to load up on Gold, not now.

Tha't why I hold Yen and US Dollar and Thai Baht.

Reason: Gold's correction from March 17, 2008 top might not be complete at the Oct 2008 low but just wave A down. We are in wave B up. Yet to come is wave C down. Alternate could be a long-drawn-out sideways triangle stretching for years.

Wave Bs are sucker waves, draw them all in type waves.

Wave C down will send 'em all to the promised land.

-----------------------------------------------

-----------------------------------------------------

Last post for now.

My MAIN forecast for Gold remains unchanged:

Targets $650, $554

lower targets will be added only if there is failure at $554.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Alternative scenarios on the backburner:

Scenario 1:

I'm totally wrong and Gold blows past the previous March 2008 top at $1032 and goes into another bullrun. If this is the case I would probably wait for the corrective wave down to near $1040-60 or thereabouts to BUY physical Gold coins, not trade.

Scenario 2:

Gold prices go into an extended sideways triangle for several, several months, visible on both daily and weekly timeframes.

--------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------

On March 18 ... U.S. Govt. said it would buy its debt with Dollars created out of thin air.

Almost instantly goldbugs around the globe saw this as the sign of the coming of the Gold Christ meaning Gold rocketing to $2k or even perhaps $20k.

And Dennis Gartman bought a significant gold position. His subscribers too.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell has put 30% of his entire net worth into buying Gold.

Prof. Charles Bassetti, ab excellent trader/trend player been buying and buying and calling one buy signal after another. Remember that Gold spike that took Harmonica out of his 4H position? Bassetti saw that as a buy signal from Heaven

Goldbugs loaded up to the hilt for days thereafter.

So what happened days later?

Disillusionment is putting it mildly.

----------------------------------------------

Best way to handle Gold?

Trade it close to the chest for now - on the 1H timeframe and honor your STOPs.

Use BASIC technical analysis, no esoteric methods.

Forget about fundamental reasons why Gold should do this or that because of the terribly economy. Ignore all of it. Don't even bother with News. Price is boss. Price has everything you need to know.

I was not here for the current trade entry so no credit for me this time, but for anyone SHORT like me,

current STOP @ $ 909.46

------------------------------------------------------

Fast moving market to the downside so let's lock-in profits

50% of position at $909.46 (as before)

30% of position at $897

20% of position at $890.5

[Naam]

what about the waves Harmonica? you forgot to mention one or more out of x-number of waves. i trust you are feeling alright?

[Naam]

Fast moving market to the downside so let's lock-in profits

50% of position at $909.46 (as before)

30% of position at $897

20% of position at $890.5

going once... going twice... gone!

[BlackJack]

i have a gold dart board and after 10 V&T's i threw the dart

I missed the board and took this as the price of gold will go down

I was right

next I will try 15 V&T's and throw a dart

I will let you know what happens

[Naam]

i have a gold dart board and after 10 V&T's i threw the dart

I missed the board and took this as the price of gold will go down

I was right

next I will try 15 V&T's and throw a dart

I will let you know what happens

are you throwing the dart straight or in waves?

[BlackJack]

i have a gold dart board and after 10 V&T's i threw the dart

I missed the board and took this as the price of gold will go down

I was right

next I will try 15 V&T's and throw a dart

I will let you know what happens

are you throwing the dart straight or in waves?

after 15 I think waves

[Harmonica]

Everone bullish GOLD and so far they are correct. Trend is UP.

Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter just announced continuation bullmarket in Gold.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

This is just the kind of scene that turns BEAR on, namely, "everyone is on board" - then reverse course and bankrupt the lot of them.

I'm NOT buying Gold .... I believe Gold will go to 650, and possibly 525 or 500 and maybe lower. When complete that will be the time to load up on Gold, not now.

Tha't why I hold Yen and US Dollar and Thai Baht.

Reason: Gold's correction from March 17, 2008 top might not be complete at the Oct 2008 low but just wave A down. We are in wave B up. Yet to come is wave C down. Alternate could be a long-drawn-out sideways triangle stretching for years.

Wave Bs are sucker waves, draw them all in type waves.

Wave C down will send 'em all to the promised land.

-----------------------------------------------

-----------------------------------------------------

Last post for now.

My MAIN forecast for Gold remains unchanged:

Targets $650, $554

lower targets will be added only if there is failure at $554.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Alternative scenarios on the backburner:

Scenario 1:

I'm totally wrong and Gold blows past the previous March 2008 top at $1032 and goes into another bullrun. If this is the case I would probably wait for the corrective wave down to near $1040-60 or thereabouts to BUY physical Gold coins, not trade.

Scenario 2:

Gold prices go into an extended sideways triangle for several, several months, visible on both daily and weekly timeframes.

--------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------

On March 18 ... U.S. Govt. said it would buy its debt with Dollars created out of thin air.

Almost instantly goldbugs around the globe saw this as the sign of the coming of the Gold Christ meaning Gold rocketing to $2k or even perhaps $20k.

And Dennis Gartman bought a significant gold position. His subscribers too.

Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell has put 30% of his entire net worth into buying Gold.

Prof. Charles Bassetti, ab excellent trader/trend player been buying and buying and calling one buy signal after another. Remember that Gold spike that took Harmonica out of his 4H position? Bassetti saw that as a buy signal from Heaven

Goldbugs loaded up to the hilt for days thereafter.

So what happened days later?

Disillusionment is putting it mildly.

----------------------------------------------

Best way to handle Gold?

Trade it close to the chest for now - on the 1H timeframe and honor your STOPs.

Use BASIC technical analysis, no esoteric methods.

Forget about fundamental reasons why Gold should do this or that because of the terribly economy. Ignore all of it. Don't even bother with News. Price is boss. Price has everything you need to know.

I was not here for the current trade entry so no credit for me this time, but for anyone SHORT like me,

current STOP @ $ 909.46

------------------------------------------------------

Fast moving market to the downside so let's lock-in profits

50% of position at $909.46 (as before)

30% of position at $897

20% of position at $890.5

------------------------------------------------------------

lock-in profits some more

50% of position at $909.46 (as before)

25% of position at $897

25% of position at $883

[Harmonica]

ex-wives waiting to ambush Harmonica and other SHORTS at the 200-day moving average @ $860. Just below at $851 is Gann's 144, a known hangout for mothers-in-law. Expect to find some kids you never knew about - from the former(s), not the latter.

Expect the unexpected, but be optimistic and pack some condoms, you might still get lucky and still make a clean getaway, again.

[flying]

Not to be rude & perhaps it is just your eccentric posting style but........... You have these long.....long....looooooong conversations with yourself on this board....Sometimes I need to wade through many of your predictions just to get to an actual post.

I just wondered do you actually read this forum or just use it to post notes to yourself for later?

You never seem to answer any posts that question yours & for the most part just quote & re quote your previous posts.

[Naam]

Not to be rude & perhaps it is just your eccentric posting style but........... You have these long.....long....looooooong conversations with yourself on this board....Sometimes I need to wade through many of your predictions just to get to an actual post.

I just wondered do you actually read this forum or just use it to post notes to yourself for later?

You never seem to answer any posts that question yours & for the most part just quote & re quote your previous posts.

egocentric monologue experts like Harmonica and Bingobongo never answer any posts from us common mortals

[flying]

egocentric monologue experts like Harmonica and Bingobongo never answer any posts from us common mortals

Funny you mention that because as I wrote it I thought the same..........Which makes me wonder why I wrote it....

Is this condition contagious?

[Naam]

egocentric monologue experts like Harmonica and Bingobongo never answer any posts from us common mortals

Funny you mention that because as I wrote it I thought the same..........Which makes me wonder why I wrote it....

Is this condition contagious?

yes it is, but not dangerous. we will survive!

[ronz28]

Using the ABC technical analysis of GLD (Gold ETF at about one tenth the price of gold but its a bit off today) discussed at TFNN.com I see the latest ABC down projected as follows:

A= $98.99

B= $86.83

C= $94.77

Projects to D at $82.61 as most likely

or $79.30

or $77.96

depending on price and volume action, to me, its close enough to tighten stops and scale out of shorts as Harmonica does. As always, that is totally up to you as no advice is given here.

Tom Obrien of TFNN says about $840 should be where gold turns back up but as always he will be watching the price and volume action as it gets down there. You can listen to their programs in the free achieve area of their site after free registration and some programs are also currently free on Itunes (see Tom's videos).

Edited April 7, 2009 by ronz28

[VegasVic]

Using the ABC technical analysis of GLD (Gold ETF at about one tenth the price of gold but its a bit off today) discussed at TFNN.com I see the latest ABC down projected as follows:

A= $98.99

B= $86.83

C= $94.77

Projects to D at $82.61 as most likely

or $79.30

or $77.96

depending on price and volume action, to me, its close enough to tighten stops and scale out of shorts as Harmonica does. As always, that is totally up to you as no advice is given here.

Tom Obrien of TFNN says about $840 should be where gold turns back up but as always he will be watching the price and volume action as it gets down there. You can listen to their programs in the free achieve area of their site after free registration and some programs are also currently free on Itunes (see Tom's videos).

I see $810 getting taken out this time around and then $770 will be tested If this move in the market turns out to be just a bear rally and peters out in early May, then gold could bounce off the mid $700's very nicely, but the yearly high for gold has already been put in!

[Nouf]

Not to be rude & perhaps it is just your eccentric posting style but........... You have these long.....long....looooooong conversations with yourself on this board....Sometimes I need to wade through many of your predictions just to get to an actual post.

I just wondered do you actually read this forum or just use it to post notes to yourself for later?

You never seem to answer any posts that question yours & for the most part just quote & re quote your previous posts.

Hmmmm i thought it was only me who only noticed this, one thing i have noticed is that eventually if pushed Mr Harmonica will answer.

He does from time to time have some interesting points, me and Mr Harmonica dont exactly see eye-eye, on the trading front, but in the most part similar(although i am not exactly a UBER bear i take both sides into making decisions)

(geeezzzz did i say that i agree with some of Harmonica`s post`s crap its a disease that has got me)

Anyhow, i have noticed that with the other Person Naam mentioned, If posters are going to post information that is NOT accredited to them at least show the source, and not come across as taking credit for someone elses work

I have objections when posters quote stuff than is clearly written by others yet they some how want to take the credit for others work

If posters are going to make conclusions at least have the repsect to answer questions on that posting, not run and hide from questions.

I am sure Mr Harmonica will choose if he so wishes to answer your question, but dont hold out on that he is known to be selective

[flying]

I see $810 getting taken out this time around and then $770 will be tested If this move in the market turns out to be just a bear rally and peters out in early May, then gold could bounce off the mid $700's very nicely, but the yearly high for gold has already been put in!

Now Vic................

Dont make me dig up all the posts where you said this before.

Although it is a good indicator that Gold will surely rise now that you have said it again.

Remember early Jan this year when you said it had made it's high for the year?

Edited April 7, 2009 by flying

[AlexLah]

And here it is, straight from the occult lab where the sinister Alexlah is once again using all known and unknown mathematical models and other non sensical tools to update us on where Gold will go in the short term using a long turn ratio.

Just look at the development on the right side of the I mark (center) you see it follows the lines and interline crossings including lows and highs.

From there you can clearly see what the next target is.

Houston we have a problem!

[Harmonica]

She came close to my STOP.

but still no close above $883 on 1H so all positions are still intact.

[Harmonica]

She came close to my STOP.

but still no close above $883 on 1H so all positions are still intact.

-----------------------------------

Tired, so i've closed out the $883 STOP position.

The other 2 STOPs are now on auto pilot and still open.

Buenas noches.

[ace]

The Chinese have already stated that they know about this and hate being in this situation with all those USD bonds.

Somehow I am sure that the Chinese are looking for a way out of this situation. They are much more astute than the short termers running the western banks and countries. The Chinese are surely now buying up commodities and stocking up their reserves with the USDs at a rate which won't upset the USA in order to prepare themselves for the future.

t..............he Chinese will prevail.

Couple of points. Agree with you in general. Chinese $ debt is 740billion. $ Inflation is therefore a bit of a concern . Second, the Chinese are indeed buying up commodities (including copper - thanks guys :-) Here's a fact 4u "With 90% of the world's rare earth metals now under China's control, ...." - that's a quote.