Why Did Thaksin Opt For Violent Confrontation At This Time?

[thailandlover]

I have been watching the news on tv as well as reading it online and am not sure I understand why Thaksin chose this moment to go for broke and push for violent confrontation?

[katasyd]

It seems he has lost something.

[blackman]

I have been watching the news on tv as well as reading it online and am not sure I understand why Thaksin chose this moment to go for broke and push for violent confrontation?

he feels he is has lost something

he did say he was finding it difficult to survive whilst on the run with only $500 million

[lannarebirth]

Beause court cases concerning his frozen assets have been moving forward and are due to begin soon. Also his former party has been losing seats to the Democrats in recent by-elections held in the north and northeast. He was becoming irrelevant.

[sbk]

Posts have been deleted. A repeat performance of the off-topic hijacking, trolling and insults will result in suspension.

[MJo]

Thaksin was interviewed live in CNN couple of hours ago. Made a plea for all to act peacefully and solve the problems without violence.

[Marksamui]

I think this has been driven by Thaksin (notice I said I think as I don't want to step out of line!)

The reason I think he has done this is because he has few options left. His position has become increasing weakened over the last year and now his influence is as low as possible. Therefore drastic measures are taking place. The reason he is doing this are for his freedom and his money, not for the Thai people.

The solution to these problems......give him a pardon allow him to comeback, give him his cash and enter into talks with him. If they don't do this Thailand will become Military Ruled which will cause a lot of problems. I don't agree with what he is doing but I did not agree with the PAD either, but if they want out of this problem they need to forgive and forget and start to talk......Saying that they will chase after Thaksin to go to jail and serve his sentence and coming back to bite them!!

[rogercw]

He is not stupid. He sees that these tactics worked for PAD and the Democrats. Now he is using their own tactics against them. The difference is that the Army refused to help the Taksin governments but they are helping the current Democrat government.

[sbk]

He is not stupid. He sees that these tactics worked for PAD and the Democrats. Now he is using their own tactics against them. The difference is that the Army refused to help the Taksin governments but they are helping the current Democrat government.

OP asked why now, not for an analysis of Thaksin's intelligence.

[Marksamui]

I think this has been driven by Thaksin (notice I said I think as I don't want to step out of line!)

The reason I think he has done this is because he has few options left. His position has become increasing weakened over the last year and now his influence is as low as possible. Therefore drastic measures are taking place. The reason he is doing this are for his freedom and his money, not for the Thai people.

The solution to these problems......give him a pardon allow him to comeback, give him his cash and premiership for lifetime enter into talks with him. If they don't do this Thailand will become Military Ruled which will cause a lot of problems. I don't agree with what he is doing but I did not agree with the PAD either, but if they want out of this problem they need to forgive and forget and start to talk......Saying that they will chase after Thaksin to go to jail and serve his sentence and coming back to bite them!!

Are you talking football???

All they need to do is say they will talk, you don't need to talk.

Right now I am not sure they know where he is and he is managing to organise riots!! Something has to give. If the military can help the current government and bring peace without giving in to Thaksin then great I am all for it, but I am not sure they can, Thaksin has a lot of support.....

[MJo]

He is not stupid. He sees that these tactics worked for PAD and the Democrats. Now he is using their own tactics against them. The difference is that the Army refused to help the Taksin governments but they are helping the current Democrat government.

OP asked why now, not for an analysis of Thaksin's intelligence.

Is this admin or sbk talking ?

In any case c'mon. Valid comment. He's giving PAD the same treatment they gave to his guys. Now i don't agree to anything both red and yellows have done but it is pretty obvious that the reds are copying the yellows on this one in certain extend.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

I think this topic / question was answered? Thaksin was just on BBC and made it clear he is for a peaceful revolution, not violence. I don't think Thaksin encouraged violence per se and was as shocked (especially at the heavy handed military action) as everyone else.

By the way, there's a defaming / defacing picture on this topic in post #2. If I do that of Abhisit then I get banned. Clean it up please for the sake of fairness?

[sbk]

photo deleted.

No, admin talking. I think we have more than enough posts and threads running with the same stuff from both sides of the issue, it would be nice to see some analytical non-propagandizing commentary for a change.

[mmushr00m]

I think it went out of control. I doubt he expected the Red Shirts to be burning buses, threatening to blow up Din Deang with a tanker full of petrol, beating the residents of DinDeang when they told the Red Shirts to bugger off or the army to move in.

So a miscalculation, an undiscipline mob that alienated and frightened the masses. So no massive up rising by the people. Hence he is not here "to lead the revolution".

[MonsieurHulot]

He is not stupid. He sees that these tactics worked for PAD and the Democrats. Now he is using their own tactics against them. The difference is that the Army refused to help the Taksin governments but they are helping the current Democrat government.

OP asked why now, not for an analysis of Thaksin's intelligence.

Why now?

That's an easy one.

Because the time is ripe.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

I think it went out of control. I doubt he expected the Red Shirts to be burning buses, threatening to blow up Din Deang with a tanker full of petrol, beating the residents of DinDeang when they told the Red Shirts to bugger off or the army to move in.

So a miscalculation, an undiscipline mob that alienated and frightened the masses. So no massive up rising by the people. Hence he is not here "to lead the revolution".

Yes, I think that's probably as close to the mark as we're going to get this evening.

Also, I can't imagine that every single person who's ever worn a red shirt in the last month or so is unanimously happy with recent events, to put it mildly. There are genuine grievances out there and it would be REALLY DUMB to ignore those, even dumber than the uneducated upcountry people are made out to be, Katasyd / #17. But turning Bangkok into a war zone is just not going to help anyone. Progress and empowerment of all classes must come through the political system, so I think there's much more mileage in getting that organized in the same stellar way as Thaksin managed with Thai Rak Thai.

Edited April 13, 2009 by WinnieTheKhwai

[MJo]

This is still ok at least when compared to other threads with thousands of repeated posts for all the colors. Stopped reading them already last night once i saw where they were heading.

mushr00m, you might be right here. It got out of hand first in Pattaya when they stormed the hotel. No need for that as they already blocked the ASEAN meeting in any case. But once you get it going on it is impossible to control the mob if they decide to take action. Also might be simple case of too many people pushing in front so that they forced the people thru the glass. For me it seemed that one the army personnel broke the glass intentionally to prevent people getting crushed against it. Himself included.

Second escalation when army and police responded by arresting their people and clearing roadblocks. Maybe they were not expecting this based on what happened with the PAD last time. But again there is no way back for the red leaders once they did decided to block the roads and i do not believe their people would have followed even if they did instruct them to pull back.

[geriatrickid]

I do not believe that Thaksin opted for violent confrontation. Unfortunately, whenever you get large groups of angry people, many under the effects of Songkran "joy", the mob mentality takes over. The time to have intervened was a couple days ago. Now it's too late to put the genie of disorder back in its bottle.

It's Songkran, the army, cops and the public would like to have a bit of a holiday, not a let's make life miserable event, so I don't believe this was planned in the conventional sense.

[PeaceBlondie]

Speaking as a pacifist who once trained folks in these methods,

For all their Buddhism, I doubt that Thais in their little world here have studied the incredibly difficult methods of organizing and supervising, training and limiting those who do non-violent direct action. Neither Thaksin, who had his hired goons beat up old men who protested when he was Prime Minister, nor Abhisit's advisors have graduate degrees in peace studies. Neither Mark at Oxford nor Thaksin at Sam Houston State Univ. learned this.

In the heat of the moment, heads get hot and things get thrown and burned. That is obvious to anybody who ever studied how to control such things. Thaksin was out of his element. Nevertheless, as a leader of the mob, he is responsible when it gets out of hand. So is Abisit when his troops exceed their legal authority. But the State has far more 'legitimate' power to quell insurrection.

[mmushr00m]

Massive miscalculation, when the UDD leaders admit that they cant control their people you know they f@cked up.

When the Red Shirts, who are supposedly the voice of the poor and oppressed, are fighting with people from Din Deang and Nang Lerng (who are poor and oppressed and who probaly vote for Mr T) you know things have gotten horribly out of control.

Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Taksin screwed up with the language he used, too inflamatory and got the red shirts all eager for a showdown, and he underestimated Abhisit. He probably thought that due to Abhisits inaction in Pattaya the man was soft. Well he may be soft but the Generals are not. And they used brains too in the way they handled the situation, I am surprised.

[lannarebirth]

Massive miscalculation, when the UDD leaders admit that they cant control their people you know they f@cked up.

When the Red Shirts, who are supposedly the voice of the poor and oppressed, are fighting with people from Din Deang and Nang Lerng (who are poor and oppressed and who probaly vote for Mr T) you know things have gotten horribly out of control.

Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Taksin screwed up with the language he used, too inflamatory and got the red shirts all eager for a showdown, and he underestimated Abhisit. He probably thought that due to Abhisits inaction in Pattaya the man was soft. Well he may be soft but the Generals are not. And they used brains too in the way they handled the situation, I am surprised.

I don't think it "got out of hand" accidentally. The UDD leaders ordered the followers to "attack" the government, the prime minister. It's funny how this stuff gets spun, but it's clear violence was intended from the beginning.

[TonySoprano]

They are just following PADs lead.

[passingby]

They are just following PADs lead.

It is easy to say the red is just repeating what the yellow did.

If they are really sincere about their course, they could have done something different and do not

have to do things even worse then the yellow by going against ordinary fellow citizens.

[bravingbangkok]

How can you trust a man who would buy Man City....some people tuhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Poor old Tacky you have to feel for the guy. How things can change in life so quickly with the wrong step.

[zaphodbeeblebrox]

The protests started off peaceful. The ASEAN summit invasion showed signs of thuggishness. Thaksin then urged the red shirts to engage in a revolt. He egged them on with his poor choice of words. Maybe he didn't specifically tell them to resort to violence, but his interview denial doesn't erase the fact that he incited the red shirts to riot. That's an additional criminal offense on his part.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

> That's an additional criminal offense on his part.

Well, add it to the list. Looking at how this type of offense is prosedded for PAD leaders in the Thai 'justice' system I think it's one he can safely not worry too much about.

[zaphodbeeblebrox]

> That's an additional criminal offense on his part.

Well, add it to the list. Looking at how this type of offense is prosedded for PAD leaders in the Thai 'justice' system I think it's one he can safely not worry too much about.

I don't think the issue is that the offense is prosecutable. It's an offense against the Thai people who had to watch their country torn apart as the result of the rantings of a megalomaniac, who doesn't even live in the country anymore.

[TonySoprano]

> That's an additional criminal offense on his part.

Well, add it to the list. Looking at how this type of offense is prosedded for PAD leaders in the Thai 'justice' system I think it's one he can safely not worry too much about.

I don't think the issue is that the offense is prosecutable. It's an offense against the Thai people who had to watch their country torn apart as the result of the rantings of a megalomaniac, who doesn't even live in the country anymore.

Yes but did you forget what happened to the ranting PAD speaker? He got named Foreign Minister. Same Same, But Different, right?

[Pierrot]

A quick reply.

First, he wasn't given much choice. The escalation is the result of PAD/democrats/xxx action that keep on changing the rules when they lose. The reds’ actions are the copy of the yellows’, Thaksin didn’t choose this path, it was forced upon him.

Second, when the PAD was a highly organized movement, very centralized, the reds are a loose alliance of people unhappy with the government. I have sometime doubt that they can be controlled. Abhi opened the Pandora box when he refused to prosecute the PAD leaders, if someone is responsible for the current violence, it’s him.

[Mosha]

The frightening thing is, Thaksin and the UDD leadership have let the genie out of the bottle with their poor choice of words. Even if they do get the genie back where it belongs, they've lost the cork.