Stronger Baht/usd

[Harmonica]

You're welcome, Butterfly!

For thedude and others who are playing the SET Index and possibly have thrown all caution to the wind; hey, don't let me discourage you -- knock yourselves out, but somewhere in the labyrinth of your mind, please tuck this seemingly insignificant thought -- one that nobody, not even a single broker, is willing to "thought" or "thunk"

A vehicle needs fuel to go from A to B. If it is going to go fast it is going to need even more.

Local time is 11:30 AM -- SET has been open for 1.5 hours already, but the Volume is only 3.7 billion Baht.

This is equal to approx. 2.5 billion Baht per hour, or extrapolated @ same rate, approx. 12 billion for the day.

That is just fumes , amigos. It ain't the real thing.

Unless we see some heavy, high octane fuel, she ain't goin nowhere!

I'm not saying that buyers will not step in and shoot up the volume and therefore take the SET higher -- I'm saying that we just have not seen it yet -- that to me is a big NO, NO and adds to the current level of treachery in the market!

Best of luck,

Adios

[thedude]

many thanks Harmy for the great charts and your clairvoyance.

yes the thin volume suggests that the resurgance has weak support but nonetheless i rushed in and made a little these past few days particularly in the banking sector. money is money and i'll take it whichever way it comes, as long as the exit door is wide open.

[Butterfly]

many thanks Harmy for the great charts and your clairvoyance.

yes the thin volume suggests that the resurgance has weak support but nonetheless i rushed in and made a little these past few days particularly in the banking sector.  money is money and i'll take it whichever way it comes, as long as the exit door is wide open. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You would have to be insane to invest in Banking sector now ???? with all shaky loans Thai banks are doing, I wouldn't want to touch those with a 10'' pole

[thedude]

many thanks Harmy for the great charts and your clairvoyance.

yes the thin volume suggests that the resurgance has weak support but nonetheless i rushed in and made a little these past few days particularly in the banking sector.  money is money and i'll take it whichever way it comes, as long as the exit door is wide open. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You would have to be insane to invest in Banking sector now ???? with all shaky loans Thai banks are doing, I wouldn't want to touch those with a 10'' pole

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

the banking sector is far better regulated now than many give it credit for. i for one have very high regard for the BOT governor, whom i respect as a man of high integrity. in any case, bank liquidity remains very high and overall NPLs as a % of bank loans is reducing across the board, so i really don't know what you are talking about. things are okay from a sector perspective. if you watch the big banks for long enough, you will recognise the pricing trend and the gaps in market valuation. i accumulated SCB 3 weeks ago at near 52-week low prices and sold it all over last thursday and friday, averaging 12% gain. i don't know about you, but thats real $$ profits which i am enjoying while all the backseat drivers continue to talk.

[Harmonica]

Harmy, its happened again.  Massive net foreign buying propping up the SET today while the Baht continued to slide.....wh wh whats happening!    

Because even though Baht might strengthen to 41.2 to 41.35 again, thereby encouraging SET to rally some more -- the TIGER is still in the backroom -- who/what is he?

Hehehehe

Thai Baht has strengthened to 41.38 as we speak and as expected, SET is rallying.

Dollar started a correction on July 8th and Baht has taken this opportunity to strengthen -- she should take advantage of this to the fullest because when its complete, she will once again continue weakening & shoot past 42 and on to 43. This will cause SET to retrace all current gains.

Nevertheless SET should take this opportunity to tack on some gains!

Small, little Land of Smiles continues to smile.

[Butterfly]

the banking sector is far better regulated now than many give it credit for.  i for one have very high regard for the BOT governor, whom i respect as a man of high integrity.  in any case, bank liquidity remains very high and overall NPLs as a % of bank loans is reducing across the board, so i really don't know what you are talking about.  things are okay from a sector perspective.  if you watch the big banks for long enough, you will recognise the pricing trend and the gaps in market valuation.  i accumulated SCB 3 weeks ago at near 52-week low prices and sold it all over last thursday and friday, averaging 12% gain.  i don't know about you, but thats real $$ profits which i am enjoying while all the backseat drivers continue to talk.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I got those same comments from brokers and analysts right before the collapse of the banking system in 1997. Not very reassuring. Banks love to hide their numbers, and today with the new regulations (not fully implemented I might add) is no exception.

Making a quick profit on bank stocks doesn't reflect how healthy a sector is. Good for you if you did, but I hold my stocks for more than a few weeks and like to have gains of 25% or even 50% before making a sale. 10% return is not enough for me for that that kind of bet. Above all as risky as a bank stock. To each its own I guess.

[Harmonica]

many thanks Harmy for the great charts and your clairvoyance.

yes the thin volume suggests that the resurgance has weak support but nonetheless i rushed in and made a little these past few days particularly in the banking sector.  money is money and i'll take it whichever way it comes, as long as the exit door is wide open. 

You would have to be insane to invest in Banking sector now ???? with all shaky loans Thai banks are doing, I wouldn't want to touch those with a 10'' pole

the banking sector is far better regulated now than many give it credit for. i for one have very high regard for the BOT governor, whom i respect as a man of high integrity. in any case, bank liquidity remains very high and overall NPLs as a % of bank loans is reducing across the board, so i really don't know what you are talking about. things are okay from a sector perspective. if you watch the big banks for long enough, you will recognise the pricing trend and the gaps in market valuation. i accumulated SCB 3 weeks ago at near 52-week low prices and sold it all over last thursday and friday, averaging 12% gain. i don't know about you, but thats real $$ profits which i am enjoying while all the backseat drivers continue to talk.

Butterfly, thedude is actually correct to be playing the Banking sector short-term because it is currently outperforming other large sectors -- except for the Energy sector.

Long-term, as my chart below shows, the Banking sector has been a terrible place to be as the the ratio of Banks divided by SET (shown in chart) has been in a long-term downtrend. But each step of the way down there have been rallies and actually since October 2004 Banks have held their own versus SET -- this is easily visible on the chart provided.

Energy has been the lead horse for quite some time now, but Comun and Banks switch for 2nd place every now and then and if one is vigilant, one can capitalize on some worthwhile percentage gains.

We are talking short-term ( 1 week to 6 weeks timeframe)

And for thedude and yourself -- do NOT forget that my buddy TMB, who every mothers' son has relegated to the doghouse, is going to come forth from the dungeon and shine like a star!

When? Plot a graph of TMB versus SCB (ratio chart, use a logarithmic scale) and you will see what nobody else is watching. I'm risking my visa here, but let me make it clear that I am NOT telling you to buy; just to watch the movie unfolding! OK?

God bless both of you with profits!

[TRIPxCORE]

The Dollar Rally is Done

Looking at the monthly returns, July was good for the currency markets with all of the major currencies up except the Japanese Yen which was down only .05% vs. the US$. The rand was the best performer in July with a 4.33% gain, followed by the nordic currencies of Sweden (+3.12%), Norway (+2.61%), and Denmark (+2.2%). The Euro, which was down over 10% for the year, rose just over 2% during the month of July.

A confirmation of the end of this long dollar rally came on Friday, when GDP was reported at 3.4% for the second quarter of 2005. This is the ninth straight quarter exceeding 3 percent, something we haven't seen since the Reagan years of January 1983 through March 1986. Adding fuel to what should have been a red hot dollar rally Friday was San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen calling for more aggressive rate hikes in the US. Despite all of this data and talk, the currency markets actually took the dollar down. As Chuck has pointed out in past Pfennigs, when the dollar is rallying it goes up no matter what the data shows, and the opposite is also true. Even the hedge funds were selling dollars. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported that hedge funds and other large speculators pared bets on the dollar's gain recently. So the trading action we saw Friday, confirms to me that this 2005 dollar rally, which lasted longer and went further than we expected, is finally over.

Sadly, a man many credit with the creation of the Euro, the first ECB President William Duisenberg, died yesterday. Duisenberg was responsible for the introduction of euro notes and coins throughout Europe in 2002 and created a foundation of trust among the population in the euro.

Data coming out of the European Union show the economic growth in the region is picking up. European manufacturing expanded in July, adding to reports on business confidence and employment which all signaled a strengthening economy. These latest reports should keep the ECB, which meets this week, from lowering interest rates despite calls from Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi to the contrary. Economists at both Deutsche Bank and Bear Stearns announced this morning that an ECB rate cut would do more harm than good, and economists are now predicting European rates to remain where they are until the third quarter of 2006 when it will start to increase them by .25%.

The BOE will also meet this week and a rate cut of .25% is being predicted by most economists. A rate cut was narrowly avoided last month by only one vote, but most economists believe the BOE will cut the rate for the first time in more than two years to spur growth. In spite of this predicted rate cut, currency strategists are expecting the British pound to gain some lost ground back this week due to a short squeeze after the rate cut announcement. Even after the expected cut, the Pound will maintain a nice positive yield advantage to the Euro.

We have started to see some signs that deflation in Japan is beginning to dissipate. Japan's wages had their biggest gain in seven months in June, and land prices in Tokyo rose for the first time in 13 years in 2004. Wages rose 1.1% according to a report released today, and land prices in Tokyo rose .4% last year according to another government report released today. The Bank of Japan is becoming more confident that an economic recovery is sustainable because consumer spending is improving at a faster pace and export growth may accelerate later this year, the bank's top economist said. Hideo Hayakawa, who heads the bank's research and statistics department said "Japan's economic recovery is becoming sustainable". However, Governor Toshihiko Fukui, agreeing with what our own Chuck Butler said Friday, stated that the bank won't change its policy until it is certain deflation won't return and the economy is expanding steadily.

We have reported that the South African Rand is one of the most volatile currencies we deal with, and recent trading patterns continue to reinforce this. While the rand is the worst performing currency vs. the US$ year to date, it was the best performer in July, and continues to strengthen on speculation a growing economy will prevent the central bank from cutting interest rates and reducing the yield advantage. Data released Friday show South Africa's manufacturing output rose to a record in July. The rising price of gold has also helped the rand. Gold rose to a one-month high in London as the dollar weakened.

[Harmonica]

The Dollar Rally is Done

Looking at the monthly returns, July was good for the currency markets with all of the major currencies up except the Japanese Yen which was down only .05% vs. the US$.  The rand was the best performer in July with a 4.33% gain, followed by the nordic currencies of Sweden (+3.12%), Norway (+2.61%), and Denmark (+2.2%).  The Euro, which was down over 10% for the year, rose just over 2% during the month of July. 

A confirmation of the end of this long dollar rally came on Friday, when GDP was reported at 3.4% for the second quarter of 2005.  This is the ninth straight quarter exceeding 3 percent, something we haven't seen since the Reagan years of January 1983 through March 1986.  Adding fuel to what should have been a red hot dollar rally Friday was San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen calling for more aggressive rate hikes in the US.  Despite all of this data and talk, the currency markets actually took the dollar down.  As Chuck has pointed out in past Pfennigs, when the dollar is rallying it goes up no matter what the data shows, and the opposite is also true.  Even the hedge funds were selling dollars.  The Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported that hedge funds and other large speculators pared bets on the dollar's gain recently.  So the trading action we saw Friday, confirms to me that this 2005 dollar rally, which lasted longer and went further than we expected, is finally over.

Sadly, a man many credit with the creation of the Euro, the first ECB President William Duisenberg, died yesterday.  Duisenberg was responsible for the introduction of euro notes and coins throughout Europe in 2002 and created a foundation of trust among the population in the euro.

Data coming out of the European Union show the economic growth in the region is picking up.  European manufacturing expanded in July, adding to reports on business confidence and employment which all signaled a strengthening economy.  These latest reports should keep the ECB, which meets this week, from lowering interest rates despite calls from Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi to the contrary.  Economists at both Deutsche Bank and Bear Stearns announced this morning that an ECB rate cut would do more harm than good, and economists are now predicting European rates to remain where they are until the third quarter of 2006 when it will start to increase them by .25%. 

The BOE will also meet this week and a rate cut of .25% is being predicted by most economists.  A rate cut was narrowly avoided last month by only one vote, but most economists believe the BOE will cut the rate for the first time in more than two years to spur growth.  In spite of this predicted rate cut, currency strategists are expecting the British pound to gain some lost ground back this week due to a short squeeze after the rate cut announcement.  Even after the expected cut, the Pound will maintain a nice positive yield advantage to the Euro. 

We have started to see some signs that deflation in Japan is beginning to dissipate.  Japan's wages had their biggest gain in seven months in June, and land prices in Tokyo rose for the first time in 13 years in 2004.  Wages rose 1.1% according to a report released today, and land prices in Tokyo rose .4% last year according to another government report released today.  The Bank of Japan is becoming more confident that an economic recovery is sustainable because consumer spending is improving at a faster pace and export growth may accelerate later this year, the bank's top economist said.  Hideo Hayakawa, who heads the bank's research and statistics department said "Japan's economic recovery is becoming sustainable".  However, Governor Toshihiko Fukui, agreeing with what our own Chuck Butler said Friday, stated that the bank won't change its policy until it is certain deflation won't return and the economy is expanding steadily.

We have reported that the South African Rand is one of the most volatile currencies we deal with, and recent trading patterns continue to reinforce this.  While the rand is the worst performing currency vs. the US$ year to date, it was the best performer in July, and continues to strengthen on speculation a growing economy will prevent the central bank from cutting interest rates and reducing the yield advantage.  Data released Friday show South Africa's manufacturing output rose to a record in July.  The rising price of gold has also helped the rand.  Gold rose to a one-month high in London as the dollar weakened.

Did you write this, or is it from your company or from some other source?

Just to differentiate, what is your opinion?

Much obliged if you would make an unequivocal statement of YOUR own, stating YOUR call on the US Dollar.

Many thanks

[Firefan]

It was taken from here: http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Butl...icles/0801.html

I read Daily Reckoning most days with my morning coffee. Smart people but like to bring up doomsday scenarios so mix it slightly with the always bullish talking heads on CNBC and you have a nice cocktail!

Cheers!

[Harmonica]

It was taken from here: http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Butl...icles/0801.html

I read Daily Reckoning most days with my morning coffee. Smart people but like to bring up doomsday scenarios so mix it slightly with the always bullish talking heads on CNBC and you have a nice cocktail!

Cheers!

Thanks for that, Firefan.

If you haven't already, give Bloomberg a try -- better than CNBC and a different sort of take on the whole scene, but ultimately a bunch of dodo birds IMHO. But the raw data they provide is an outstanding service and I love them for that.

[Firefan]

He,he - yeah I enjoy the Bloomberg dodos too!

[meelousee]

He,he - yeah I enjoy the Bloomberg dodos too!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I know how it is wish I could do the same, I'm living so far beyond my income that we may almost be said to be living apart.

[Firefan]

He,he - good one Meelousee!

[TRIPxCORE]

It was taken from here: http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Butl...icles/0801.html

I read Daily Reckoning most days with my morning coffee. Smart people but like to bring up doomsday scenarios so mix it slightly with the always bullish talking heads on CNBC and you have a nice cocktail!

Cheers!

Actually, it wasn't taken from there. Daily Reckoning copied it from it's original source which is where I got it from.

Harmonica, I wouldn't put it on here for everybody to read if I had opposing feelings on the matter. My stand has been, and will continue to be, that the USD rally was temporary and long-term the Euro is the place to put your money. As I write this as a matter of fact, the Euro has shot up from the 1.21 range yesterday all the way into the 1.23 range right now.

We have differing opinions on this but we'll see what happens. I literally have my money on the EUR so I am putting my money where my mouth is.

[britmaveric]

Sterling and dollar is the way to go Trippy!!!

[TRIPxCORE]

Sterling and dollar is the way to go Trippy!!!

For the very near-term, you might be correct but for the longer-term, Euro is the horse and not the dollar.

[Harmonica]

It was taken from here: http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Butl...icles/0801.html

I read Daily Reckoning most days with my morning coffee. Smart people but like to bring up doomsday scenarios so mix it slightly with the always bullish talking heads on CNBC and you have a nice cocktail!

Cheers!

Actually, it wasn't taken from there. Daily Reckoning copied it from it's original source which is where I got it from.

Harmonica, I wouldn't put it on here for everybody to read if I had opposing feelings on the matter. My stand has been, and will continue to be, that the USD rally was temporary and long-term the Euro is the place to put your money. As I write this as a matter of fact, the Euro has shot up from the 1.21 range yesterday all the way into the 1.23 range right now.

We have differing opinions on this but we'll see what happens. I literally have my money on the EUR so I am putting my money where my mouth is.

I understand -- thanks for stating your position clearly; if it was stated before & I missed it, my apologies.

Differing opinions are not a problem -- that's what makes a market and therefore a game.

[Harmonica]

Harmy, its happened again.  Massive net foreign buying propping up the SET today while the Baht continued to slide.....wh wh whats happening!    

Because even though Baht might strengthen to 41.2 to 41.35 again, thereby encouraging SET to rally some more -- the TIGER is still in the backroom -- who/what is he?

Hehehehe

Thai Baht has strengthened to 41.38 as we speak and as expected, SET is rallying.

Dollar started a correction on July 8th and Baht has taken this opportunity to strengthen -- she should take advantage of this to the fullest because when its complete, she will once again continue weakening & shoot past 42 and on to 43. This will cause SET to retrace all current gains.

Nevertheless SET should take this opportunity to tack on some gains!

Small, little Land of Smiles continues to smile.

Hindsight is a great tool and we shall use it again here.

Nothing has changed w.r.t. Baht and SET Index. Baht is still due to go towards 50 when this current USD correction completes.

Below I'm presenting a chart of the SET Index to show why my suspicion has turned out to be correct; this, despite the fact that Foreigners stepped in to support the market, as thedude correctly gauged, and BUY the SET Index over the last several weeks.

Clear to see is the downsloping red line in the lower window showing the volume. This verifies my suspicion that the rally would be feeble and nowhere near the vigor of the bull run in 2003, which shows some huge voloume and therefore, fuel.

That was why I stayed out of the SET.

None of this detracts from the fact that thedude & Butterfly , my 2 favorite SET players made lots of cash during my abstinence.

[Harmonica]

Sorry! Here's the chart.

[MikeWill]

Glad to see you back, Harmonica.

We miss your elaborate and well decorated commentaries.

[Harmonica]

1. Foreigners Net Buying the SET has suddenly shown a weakness on October 7. Will this weakness, which is a crack in the hull, escalate into a floodgate? Don't know just yet!

2. SET has simultaneously shown a corresponding weakness on the same day in that she has broken her recent uptrendline.

Coincidence? Not hardly.

Is this a warning? It could be. But nothing is carved in stone. Just an alert.

Again, I seriously doubt any Thai broker has shown this "Foreigner" chart to his/her clients.

3. Furthermore one should watch the 40.84 support against the Dollar. If this support continues to hold firm, as it has so far since August 12, it could "fire" -- causing Baht to bolt northward again (=weaken) -- this will only add fuel to the fire mentioned in points 1 & 2 above. Confirmation will come only if Baht delivers a "daily" close above 41.24.

Adios.

[Harmonica]

1.  Foreigners Net Buying the SET has suddenly shown a weakness on October 7.  Will this weakness, which is a crack in the hull, escalate into a floodgate?  Don't know just yet!

2.  SET has simultaneously shown a corresponding weakness on the same day in that she has broken her recent uptrendline.

Coincidence?  Not hardly. 

Is this a warning?  It could be.  But nothing is carved in stone.  Just an alert.

Again, I seriously doubt any Thai broker has shown this "Foreigner" chart to his/her clients.

3.  Furthermore one should watch the 40.84 support against the Dollar.  If this support continues to hold firm, as it has so far since August 12, it could "fire" -- causing Baht to bolt northward again (=weaken) -- this will only add fuel to the fire mentioned in points 1 & 2 above.  Confirmation will come only if Baht delivers a "daily" close above 41.24.

Adios.

+10

SET has mini-crashed!

Well done, Harmonica!

The largest broker in Thailand was calling for SET 800; that means, UP!

I quietly told 2 nice Thai ladies who were sitting on 235,000 and 165,000 Baht profit respectively (in his office) to SELL and get out!

They asked me how certain I was?

I said to them, "it is a suspicion; if foreigners pull the plug SET cannot go up now"

I showed them the chart above. They asked the broker how significant the chart was. His reply? ... "it is very significant but this time its different; Institutions will support the market!"

The ladies looked bewildered. I left them my card, saying, "take your time to decide; no need to feel pressured; let the decision be your own"

I got a call 3 hours later. They both sold and even convined their father to sell his 3.6 million Baht short-term holding.

I now have an invitation to dinner with the 2 families.

God, do I love LOS!

[thedude]

harmy!

welcome back buddy. hate to say this, but everytime you re-appear, it means bad news for the SET.

the last run was awesome. made up to 40% on some energy stocks with the help of Katrina.

i'm sitting back a little bit now, keeping my positions on a few bigger cap stocks. there's a much talked about final quarter dash, and i'm sort of hopeful of a quick rally during november leading to x'mas. any thoughts on this?

[Harmonica]

harmy!

welcome back buddy.  hate to say this, but everytime you re-appear, it means bad news for the SET.

the last run was awesome. made up to 40% on some energy stocks with the help of Katrina.

i'm sitting back a little bit now, keeping my positions on a few bigger cap stocks.  there's a much talked about final quarter dash, and i'm sort of hopeful of a quick rally during november leading to x'mas.  any thoughts on this?

Hey buddy; sorry, no thoughts on playing SET for the forseeable future. SET cannot be shorted, so there is no room for me just now.

Bearish Baht and SET, contrary to you perhaps.

[TRIPxCORE]

My dear Harmonica, how we can just never agree stopped surprising me long ago. I don't know what data you're looking at to impart such a flawed opinion on these poor people. Let us read over this little tidbit about inflation:

Let's look at the report card this week... Retail Sales kicked some tail.... Inflation rose to the highest level in years... GDP is moving along nicely, and house prices aren't falling... Can you say, next rate move is higher? I thought you could!

You know, just 6 months ago, the Fed was the only Central Bank in town on a rate hike mission... Most of the industrialized countries had already been there, done that, bought the T-shirt, and were talking about rate cuts... But a funny thing happened on the way to the forum... Global inflation... And now... Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Thailand, the U.K., China, and more are talking rate hikes again... For countries like Australia and New Zealand, this just increases the rate differential they now enjoy VS the dollar, and should underpin these currencies for some time to come!

Hey... You know the St. Louis Fed Head, Poole, who normally is a U.S. economy cheerleader might have thrown a dagger at the dollar yesterday, when he said... "inflation expectations are pretty well contained and the Fed should not just be on "auto pilot" but rather it should be open to reading incoming data and not just continue a policy course that was thought to be locked in". Hmmm... Interesting... Could he be a red herring? Or... More likely, he probably was just speaking his mind and not singing from the same song sheet as the other Fed Heads... He's not a voting member, by the way...

However, that makes 3 Fed Heads this week that have not blown the rah-rah trumpet for the economy and higher interest rates... Yes, they DO need to look at the data! Because the data I've seen tells me this slower economy, faster inflation economy is getting U-G-L-Y!

Rising interest rates in the U.S., while normally USD positive, really won't make much difference now because most other countries are way ahead of the game in recognizing inflation. With that, they all raised interest rates long before the U.S. to ward off inflation and the rate differential doesn't favor the U.S. because they are behind everyone else.

I don't wish anyone to lose money so for your well-being, I hope I am wrong and you are right about this. I am not debating with you because I like to fight with anyone. Rather, I really think my surmation is accurate. Good luck to all involved in this game nontheless.

Edited October 21, 2005 by TRIPxCORE

[Harmonica]

My dear Harmonica, how we can just never agree stopped surprising me long ago. I don't know what data you're looking at to impart such a flawed opinion on these poor people.  Let us read over this little tidbit about inflation:

I don't wish anyone to lose money so for your well-being, I hope I am wrong and you are right about this.  I am not debating with you because I like to fight with anyone.  Rather, I really think my surmation is accurate.  Good luck to all involved in this game nontheless. 

We do agree on plenty.

The Dollar is going and has been going, UP

The experts unanimously said it would go to he*l.

You were on the side of the experts.

You still are.

You are wrong.

Warren Buffet has just registered losses of 32 billion dollars.

You continue to insist that you are right.

The Dollar has been rallying for 10 months.

The Baht has been getting weaker since 38.24.

Now, if you flatout state that the above is not true, it will add one more notch to why I take painful note of the fact that Thaivisa has

provided a beautiful, 5-star hotel for people to enjoy, exchange ideas, socialize etc., -- but the calibre of the guests is incontrovertibly assinine.

But I live in Thailand and have to use the same roads as drunks, bums AND decent folk.

This is the reason why "mainland" folk will always consider this site to be nothing more than a bucketshop where drunks, bums, reprobates & retards come to congregate and make losing in life a social event!

But I do like you, Chief. You're one of the few I do like -- this, notwithstanding the fact that you told Dr. Pat Pong that you were happy to see me get banned. You could have masked your torrential pleasure, hehehehe?

God bless you.

[Firefan]

I must be the only one around here that believes that we will see a STRONGER Baht as part of riding on the Chinese back combined with less intervention from nat. bank and secret keeping-the-Baht-weak-to-increase-exports plans. Cheers!

[TRIPxCORE]

We do  agree on plenty. 

The Dollar is going and has been going, UP

The experts unanimously said it would go to he*l.

You were on the side of the experts.

You still are.

You are wrong.

Warren Buffet has just registered losses of 32 billion dollars.

You continue to insist that you are right.

The Dollar has been rallying for 10 months.

The Baht has been getting weaker since 38.24.

The above is correct but I strongly believe that it is a temporary situation and have claimed that for some time now.  I will never begin to predict how long it will last because I do not know that much.  Only will maintain that the current state of affairs are temporary.

-- but the calibre of the guests is incontrovertibly assinine. 

Let us remember the above quote for later use shall we?

But I do like you, Chief.  You're one of the few I do like -- this, notwithstanding the fact that you told Dr. Pat Pong that you were happy to see me get banned.  You could have masked your torrential pleasure, hehehehe? 

God bless you.

Did I mention something when you were banned?  I won't hide it, I did.  Don't believe I said I was happy necessarily or that it gave me torrential pleasure but said that it wouldn't sadden me at all.  Why did so many people make mention of your banning with pleasure though?  Could it have something to do with quotes of your's like the one above that I said to remember?  Perhaps.  I'm quite sure I dislike just as many things or people as you do but I do try to keep it quiet more or less.  Suppose this isn't something you practice and thats fine but you musn't wonder why people were happy about your temporary departure.  God bless you as well.  I appreciate debates among people with common interests. 

[britmaveric]

I do think $ is rising and def not in the short term - all indicators point to this. However if you look at the historical trends - dollar vs bht has pretty much remained flat.