Hard Currencies

[gobkk]

if one believes the dollar will continue downwards,would one buy euros or swiss francs?wouldn't the euro benefit the most as the world switches from the dollar to the euro?would almost every other currency go up versus the dollar?how would the yen be affected as they hold most of america's debt and dollars?

do sovereign ratings from moodys,standard and poors, and fitch indicate that countries with higher rarings are better and safer to invest in?

[TRIPxCORE]

I recommend going into Euro and I am not just talking out of my ass here. I also have the bulk of my investment money in Euros as it should benefit the most from the USD decline. If for no other reason, because it is now the only reserve currency used by other countries not called USD.

[johnnyk]

If you are now in $ it's quite late to be buying euros as gains of 30%+ have already been made and the downside possibilities may be more likely than much increased upside.

Just my 2 satangs.

[~G~]

If the question is Euro or Swiss Frank, I'd recommend Euro. Not because I have a reason to believe that it will do better then the Swiss Frank. Just because it represent a larger, more diverse economy than the Swiss Frank and therefor less risky investment.

The fact that the $ went down doesn't mean that it will go up soon. It can continue falling much more. Watching Greenspan's testimony in the congress 2 days ago, I didn't see that the US is doing anything to stop the $ from falling further. Stronger $ will make the trade deficit even worse than it is now. Raising interest rates will be a serious blow to all those Americans who like to buy everything now and pay later.

It seems as if Greenspan believes that China and Japan will never stop buying US bonds, will never stop lending money to the US to finance its overwhelming hunger for consumption. He says the government should make the citizens consume less. A difficult task, if you'd ask me, since many Americans percieve unlimited consumption as a basic, undeniable right.

[aaaaaa]

sorry for my ignorance: Swiis franks stille dbeing functionalbel there? isn't Switzerland a part of EU and uses Euro ?

[~G~]

sorry for my ignorance: Swiis franks stille dbeing functionalbel there? isn't Switzerland a part of EU and uses Euro ?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Switzerland is not a part of the EU and yes, they still use Swiss Franks.

Anyway, being part of the EU does not automatically mean using Euro. UK is part of the EU but does not use Euro.

[Spee]

if one believes the dollar will continue downwards,would one buy euros or swiss francs?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Why would anyone in their right mind invest in currency trading, unless they were an expert in the field?

Even if we take the large assumption that currency trading is the best investment (e.g., better than stocks, utilities, commodities, etc.), then what decision criteria have you used to select the Euro and the Swiss Franc above all others?

Like any other investment, you either buy it and sit on it, with the hope that it will appreciate, or you try to time the market to buy low and sell high.

What makes you think that you know enough about currency trading to be able to do either one of these successfully?

If you can't answer that question openly, honestly and correctly, then you might be better off investing in Bangkok sidewalk foodstands.

[~G~]

if one believes the dollar will continue downwards,would one buy euros or swiss francs?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Why would anyone in their right mind invest in currency trading, unless they were an expert in the field?

Even if we take the large assumption that currency trading is the best investment (e.g., better than stocks, utilities, commodities, etc.), then what decision criteria have you used to select the Euro and the Swiss Franc above all others?

Like any other investment, you either buy it and sit on it, with the hope that it will appreciate, or you try to time the market to buy low and sell high.

What makes you think that you know enough about currency trading to be able to do either one of these successfully?

If you can't answer that question openly, honestly and correctly, then you might be better off investing in Bangkok sidewalk foodstands.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sometimes investment in currencies is just an efficient way to minimize risks. For example, if you live in Thailand and receive all your income from the US, than you are already invested in the $. You didn't actually perform any action of trading currencies (apart from converting it to baht every time your receive it) but practically your income is completely dependent on the $ being high. That's a high risk.

In this case you are in the currencies market, whether you like it or not.

Buying some Euro or orher currencies will minimize your risk.

Edited February 20, 2005 by ~G~

[LaoPo]

sorry for my ignorance: Swiis franks stille dbeing functionalbel there? isn't Switzerland a part of EU and uses Euro ?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Switzerland is not a part of the EU and yes, they still use Swiss Franks.

Anyway, being part of the EU does not automatically mean using Euro. UK is part of the EU but does not use Euro.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And Sweden.....still use the Swedish Crown...

LaoPo

[Harmonica]

Dump both the Euro and Sw fr.

Then load up on USD bigtime -- and hold for at least 2005, perhaps 2006 and into early 2007 -- to be re-evaluated after Dec 2005.

Start buying now as the $ is going down!!! That takes cahunas but that's the way to play!

[Spee]

Sometimes investment in currencies is just an efficient way to minimize risks.

In this case you are in the currencies market, whether you like it or not.

Buying some Euro or orher currencies will minimize your risk.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Your point is interesting, but how does it minimize risk?

Every time you change currency, you are giving up anywhere from 1.5-5% to the business that does the conversion. That's a pretty big house vig to overcome.

I just try to minimize the number of times that I have to do conversions. One or two extra conversions more or less wipe out any gains from changes in exchange rates.

The only way around this would be to get your employer to pay you in a few different currencies, which most likely they are unable or unwilling to do.

[~G~]

Sometimes investment in currencies is just an efficient way to minimize risks.

In this case you are in the currencies market, whether you like it or not.

Buying some Euro or orher currencies will minimize your risk.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Your point is interesting, but how does it minimize risk?

Every time you change currency, you are giving up anywhere from 1.5-5% to the business that does the conversion. That's a pretty big house vig to overcome.

I just try to minimize the number of times that I have to do conversions. One or two extra conversions more or less wipe out any gains from changes in exchange rates.

The only way around this would be to get your employer to pay you in a few different currencies, which most likely they are unable or unwilling to do.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If you keep some of your savings in Euro, or Euro-based accounts (change from USD one time) then you have minimized risk. Your salary is still in USD, not much you can do about that, but some of your other savings are in Euro (for example), to balance that.

The changes in the rates are much more risky than the commision you might pay. When the USD goes down by 30% (as it happened) and you have big savings in USD, which will be converted and used in another currency, then you lost 30% of your money. On the other hand, when you carefully check all your options of changing the money, you will find out that you can pay much less then 1%.

[Spee]

If you keep some of your savings in Euro, or Euro-based accounts (change from USD one time) then you have minimized risk. Your salary is still in USD, not much you can do about that, but some of your other savings are in Euro (for example), to balance that.

The changes in the rates are much more risky than the commision you might pay. When the USD goes down by 30% (as it happened) and you have big savings in USD, which will be converted and used in another currency, then you lost 30% of your money. On the other hand, when you carefully check all your options of changing the money, you will find out that you can pay much less then 1%.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't get it. If I am already getting paid in USD, and the US dollar is already at historical lows against the Euro, then why in the world would I want to start buying Euros?

Fluctuations in the USD's value versus other currencies only makes a difference if one is going to be buying and selling or otherwise exchanging large amounts of currency on a regular basis, or holding one currency versus the other for long periods of time. If I have no intention or only limited plans to do something like this, then why am I concerned about currency fluctuations?

[LaoPo]

Dump both the Euro and Sw fr.

Then load up on USD bigtime -- and hold for at least 2005, perhaps 2006 and into early 2007 -- to be re-evaluated after Dec 2005.

Start buying now as the $ is going down!!!  That takes cahunas but that's the way to play!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What you'r saying is very dangerous and pure SPECULATION . You are advising people here to put ALL of their money into 1 basket...

Very dangerous indeed and I certainly hope nobody follows your advise!

I suggest you'd be more careful with your advises.

I've been following your comments and advises a bit lately and you 'profile' yourself as a kind of big roller who knows everything about finances and economics.

I wonder than why you're looking for renting a house in CM between Baht 5/10.000 if you're such an expert on finances and making big bucks?

LaoPo

[Harmonica]

Dump both the Euro and Sw fr.

Then load up on USD bigtime -- and hold for at least 2005, perhaps 2006 and into early 2007 -- to be re-evaluated after Dec 2005.

Start buying now as the $ is going down!!!  That takes cahunas but that's the way to play!

What you'r saying is very dangerous and pure SPECULATION . You are advising people here to put ALL of their money into 1 basket...

Very dangerous indeed and I certainly hope nobody follows your advise!

I suggest you'd be more careful with your advises.

I've been following your comments and advises a bit lately and you 'profile' yourself as a kind of big roller who knows everything about finances and economics.

I wonder than why you're looking for renting a house in CM between Baht 5/10.000 if you're such an expert on finances and making big bucks?

LaoPo

Repeat -- dump euros and sw fr. and load up on $.

Speculation? Amen!

OK stalker -- actually the house I was looking for was for 5,000 Baht -- unlucky that I found one for 10,000 and couldn't find one for less.

[LaoPo]

Dump both the Euro and Sw fr.

Then load up on USD bigtime -- and hold for at least 2005, perhaps 2006 and into early 2007 -- to be re-evaluated after Dec 2005.

Start buying now as the $ is going down!!!  That takes cahunas but that's the way to play!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What you'r saying is very dangerous and pure SPECULATION . You are advising people here to put ALL of their money into 1 basket...

Very dangerous indeed and I certainly hope nobody follows your advise!

I suggest you'd be more careful with your advises.

I've been following your comments and advises a bit lately and you 'profile' yourself as a kind of big roller who knows everything about finances and economics.

I wonder than why you're looking for renting a house in CM between Baht 5/10.000 if you're such an expert on finances and making big bucks?

LaoPo

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Repeat -- dump euros and sw fr. and load up on $.

Speculation? Amen!

OK stalker -- actually the house I was looking for was for 5,000 Baht -- unlucky that I found one for 10,000 and couldn't find one for less.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So...you're going to sit in your backyard, right on top of your US $'s for 1-2 years and sit still?...and advise many people to do the same?

What if you'r wrong?. Are you going to refund them?

And YES, you are a dangerous speculator; that's OK if you are playing with your own money, but don't advise that to others. They might want to have a 'chat' with you, proving wrong

Stalker?...I thought this was an open Forum

LaoPo

Edited February 21, 2005 by LaoPo

[gobkk]

Dump both the Euro and Sw fr.

Then load up on USD bigtime -- and hold for at least 2005, perhaps 2006 and into early 2007 -- to be re-evaluated after Dec 2005.

Start buying now as the $ is going down!!!  That takes cahunas but that's the way to play!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What you'r saying is very dangerous and pure SPECULATION . You are advising people here to put ALL of their money into 1 basket...

Very dangerous indeed and I certainly hope nobody follows your advise!

I suggest you'd be more careful with your advises.

I've been following your comments and advises a bit lately and you 'profile' yourself as a kind of big roller who knows everything about finances and economics.

I wonder than why you're looking for renting a house in CM between Baht 5/10.000 if you're such an expert on finances and making big bucks?

LaoPo

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Repeat -- dump euros and sw fr. and load up on $.

Speculation? Amen!

OK stalker -- actually the house I was looking for was for 5,000 Baht -- unlucky that I found one for 10,000 and couldn't find one for less.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

it doesnt take CAJONES to buy and hold dollars for years,it takes a lobotomy.

dollars will be pesos in a couple years.

speculation isnt investing its gambling.

dont anyone listen to harmonica unless they want a one way ticket into the poorhouse alongside him.

repeat--dump dollars along with the whole world and load up on any other currency and gold.

[Harmonica]

>>>>>So...you're going to sit in your backyard, right on top of your US $'s for 1-2 years and sit still?...<<<<<

Actually investors hold positions for far longer than 2 years -- some regularly hold for even 10 years and more. Once a trend is established, especially in the realm of currencies, it tends to go on for long durations. The real disagreement between the likes of you and me is that I am calling for a trend change in the US Dollar and you fellas are calling for the downtrend to continue ad infinitum. You stand in a crowd and I stand alone (almost so). If anybody should be scared it should be me, but it appears that my lone position is extremely bothersome to you. Why?

>>>>>and advise many people to do the same?

What if you'r wrong?. Are you going to refund them?<<<<<

Advice? hehehe, on a bulletin board? Inhabited by amateurs (including myself) and expressing their ideas, opinions etc.? My opinions, albeit strongly expressed are only opinions and are actions that I myself am taking and have taken -- each of you still has to pull the trigger (or not) for entering, exiting or whatever -- that action you do all by yourselves and BEAR full responsibility for!

>>>>And YES, you are a dangerous speculator<<<<<<

Its all speculation, even the itty-titty bit you're doing -- placing eggs in multiple baskets? Bah!

[Harmonica]

>>>>>it doesnt take CAJONES to buy and hold dollars for years,it takes a lobotomy.

dollars will be pesos in a couple years.

speculation isnt investing its gambling.

dont anyone listen to harmonica unless they want a one way ticket into the poorhouse alongside him.

repeat--dump dollars along with the whole world and load up on any other currency and gold. <<<<<<<

Then let the Games begin!

[~G~]

I don't get it. If I am already getting paid in USD, and the US dollar is already at historical lows against the Euro, then why in the world would I want to start buying Euros?

Because nobody can tell for sure whether the current level will not be much lower in a year. The macro-economics data indicates that there can be a serious decline in the next year.

I don't recommend to dump USD and buy Euro, or vice versa. I recommend keeping a balanced portfolio and not relying only on one.

Fluctuations in the USD's value versus other currencies only makes a difference if one is going to be buying and selling or otherwise exchanging large amounts of currency on a regular basis, or holding one currency versus the other for long periods of time.

If you live in the US, you're right. But if you live in Thailand and get paid in USD, then you are doing exactly what you described.

If I have no intention or only limited plans to do something like this, then why am I concerned about currency fluctuations?

How many bahts can you get for 1 USD today? How many bahts could you get for it in the past? what would have happend if you held Euro?

[Yangpuss]

Dump both the Euro and Sw fr.

Then load up on USD bigtime -- and hold for at least 2005, perhaps 2006 and into early 2007 -- to be re-evaluated after Dec 2005.

Start buying now as the $ is going down!!!  That takes cahunas but that's the way to play!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What you'r saying is very dangerous and pure SPECULATION . You are advising people here to put ALL of their money into 1 basket...

Very dangerous indeed and I certainly hope nobody follows your advise!

I suggest you'd be more careful with your advises.

I've been following your comments and advises a bit lately and you 'profile' yourself as a kind of big roller who knows everything about finances and economics.

I wonder than why you're looking for renting a house in CM between Baht 5/10.000 if you're such an expert on finances and making big bucks?

LaoPo

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Lao Po, I want to hear all opinions on these matters and don't believe in censoring anyone's point of view. Harmonica's view is interesting, and I'm not going to blindly follow his recommendations, but will make up my own mind. But it's good to hear a diversity of viewpoints. He's not "dangerous" at all. Search the net and you'll find all kinds of predictions on these issues...one can consider these viewpoints but ultimately it's everyone's responsibility to make up their own minds.

Keep telling us what you think, Harmonica. If you are wrong, we'll all know it eventually.

[LaoPo]

Dump both the Euro and Sw fr.

Then load up on USD bigtime -- and hold for at least 2005, perhaps 2006 and into early 2007 -- to be re-evaluated after Dec 2005.

Start buying now as the $ is going down!!!  That takes cahunas but that's the way to play!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What you'r saying is very dangerous and pure SPECULATION . You are advising people here to put ALL of their money into 1 basket...

Very dangerous indeed and I certainly hope nobody follows your advise!

I suggest you'd be more careful with your advises.

I've been following your comments and advises a bit lately and you 'profile' yourself as a kind of big roller who knows everything about finances and economics.

I wonder than why you're looking for renting a house in CM between Baht 5/10.000 if you're such an expert on finances and making big bucks?

LaoPo

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Lao Po, I want to hear all opinions on these matters and don't believe in censoring anyone's point of view. Harmonica's view is interesting, and I'm not going to blindly follow his recommendations, but will make up my own mind. But it's good to hear a diversity of viewpoints. He's not "dangerous" at all. Search the net and you'll find all kinds of predictions on these issues...one can consider these viewpoints but ultimately it's everyone's responsibility to make up their own minds.

Keep telling us what you think, Harmonica. If you are wrong, we'll all know it eventually.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So, Yangpuss, why don't you follow Harmonica then and be happy?

You are asking for advice for weeks and weeks already and still don't know what to do...

So: Put/keep all your money in US $''s and wait for 1 or 2 years. Let's find out then what has happened in the meantime, OK?

I, for myself, still thinks that anyone who advices to put ALL of his money into 1 currency, stock, gold or whatever, to be a dangerous player, but of course I agree with you that everyone is entitled to do whatever he wants with his own money.

To advice the same on an open forum like this is dangerous, but that's merely my own conclusion and I doubt if Harmonica has many followers.

Intelligent players, whether on the stockmarket, in currencies, goldmarket or anything else would consider his advice as EXTREMELY RISKY.

What, for instance, will happen to the $ if there would be another major attack on the USA by terrorists like the one on 9/11...? What (and God may prevent it) if the rumors are true that there are some 'suitcase-b...s' already in the US and could be set-off....? A horrorfying scenario, but I just wanted to make clear that almost ANYTHING could happen in the world today or in the future whereby a 'spread' in assets is more intelligent than putting all your money at risk.

But: good luck to you and Harmonica anyway

LaoPo

[chuchok]

A friend of mine sat next to a Chief Economist of a very well known International bank on a long haul flight from NZ.

This guy told him that the bank are picking that the USD will be low for at least a year.

Believe if you want, but the guy I know is not full of &lt;deleted&gt; and is a very successful business man.

[Harmonica]

Dump both the Euro and Sw fr.

Then load up on USD bigtime -- and hold for at least 2005, perhaps 2006 and into early 2007 -- to be re-evaluated after Dec 2005.

Start buying now as the $ is going down!!!  That takes cahunas but that's the way to play!

What you'r saying is very dangerous and pure SPECULATION . You are advising people here to put ALL of their money into 1 basket...

Very dangerous indeed and I certainly hope nobody follows your advise!

I suggest you'd be more careful with your advises.

I've been following your comments and advises a bit lately and you 'profile' yourself as a kind of big roller who knows everything about finances and economics.

I wonder than why you're looking for renting a house in CM between Baht 5/10.000 if you're such an expert on finances and making big bucks?

LaoPo

Lao Po, I want to hear all opinions on these matters and don't believe in censoring anyone's point of view. Harmonica's view is interesting, and I'm not going to blindly follow his recommendations, but will make up my own mind. But it's good to hear a diversity of viewpoints. He's not "dangerous" at all. Search the net and you'll find all kinds of predictions on these issues...one can consider these viewpoints but ultimately it's everyone's responsibility to make up their own minds.

Keep telling us what you think, Harmonica. If you are wrong, we'll all know it eventually.

God bless you Yangpuss!

and to LaoPo -- consider this extract from Yangpuss' statement .. "one can consider these viewpoints but ultimately it's everyone's responsibility to make up their own minds" -- do you have a problem with this, LaoPo?

[britmaveric]

In order to win big you need gamble big, so faire play to Harmonica. I'd have to agree trends tend to point to an upward dollar rather than a further decline.

Edited February 22, 2005 by britmaveric

[LaoPo]

God bless you Yangpuss! 

and to LaoPo -- consider this extract from Yangpuss' statement .. "one can consider these viewpoints but ultimately it's everyone's responsibility to make up their own minds" -- do you have a problem with this, LaoPo? 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I hope God will bless me too

and...

No, I have no problems whatsoever with that statement, Harmonica, and: God bless you too.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

In order to win big you need gamble big,......

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Or loose big most of the time the Casino (market) wins, right?

LaoPo

[Harmonica]

Hehehehe LaoPo, take a whiff of what you're shovelling, amigo.

>>>>>

What, for instance, will happen to the $ if there would be another major attack on the USA by terrorists like the one on 9/11...? <<<<<<

Here's a slap on the wrist for spewing out BS -- fact is that the US Dollar started a decisive rally on Sept 17th, 2001 that blasted off to the March 1st, 2002 TOP -- an almost 6 month long rally AFTER 9/11 . Remember that the market was closed for a week immediately following 9/11.

and then,

>>>>>>What (and God may prevent it) if the rumors are true that there are some 'suitcase-b...s' already in the US and could be set-off....? A horrorfying scenario, but I just wanted to make clear that almost ANYTHING could happen in the world today or in the future whereby a 'spread' in assets is more intelligent than putting all your money at risk. <<<<<<

Hehehehe, based on past experience, the Dollar might again shoot up like a rocket -- but then again it might not; why? because there is really no correlation! It could go either way -- as the 9/11 incident clearly demonstrates.

Check chart below.

[Harmonica]

God bless you Yangpuss! 

and to LaoPo -- consider this extract from Yangpuss' statement .. "one can consider these viewpoints but ultimately it's everyone's responsibility to make up their own minds" -- do you have a problem with this, LaoPo? 

I hope God will bless me too

and...

No, I have no problems whatsoever with that statement, Harmonica, and: God bless you too.

LaoPo

Thanks LaoPo and all the best to you.

Just as a reminder -- and this is something that seems to be too easily forgotten -- back in mid 1999 to Feb 2000 when the stock markets were rallying to dizzying heights and even taxi drivers were making money, what were the experts saying all the way to September 2000?

" Buy, buy, buy big -- refi your house, borrow to get cash and pump it all into the Nasdaq for it is going to go to 10,000 for sure -- there is no chance of even a correction; the market is so strong and the fundamentals are sound"

And what happened then? Nasdaq collapsed from 5400 in March 2000 to 1150 thereabouts in October 2002 and many, many investors are STILL waiting to recoup losses -- many died of heart attacks -- others hope that somebody will put them out of their misery!

[Yangpuss]

So, Yangpuss, why don't you follow Harmonica then and be happy? :

BECAUSE I DON'T WANT TO LOSE MY SHIRT!

You are asking for advice for weeks and weeks already and still don't know what to do...

I'M DELIBERATING!

I, for myself, still thinks that anyone who advices to put ALL of his money into 1 currency, stock, gold or whatever, to be a dangerous player

YOU MAKE A LOT OF SENSE!

But: good luck to you and Harmonica anyway

THANKS, BUT DON'T ASSUME I'M FOLLOWING HARMONICA.