The Stock Market

[loong]

Err,

Hasn't Midas been saying that he has stayed out of the market?

In my opinion, if you think that market conditions are not right to risk your capital, bull or bear, then you can't be wrong. A good investor/speculator will only take the risk when he feels that conditions are in his favour.

Midas has been down ramping all the way through the rally. predicting a crash all the way through one of the quickest rallies in history . Midas never entered and probably never will. Down ramping however even as a non investor holds him accountable. down ramping to suit your entry point is not tolerated on all hard core trader forums such as hot copper. My ramping was in line with the market, big difference Loong and Im surprised at your response re Midas

Sorry that you are surprised, but if you two may have a history, I am unaware of it. You started this thread 2 months ago, and it is this thread that I refer to. The Dow is a bit more than 3% higher than when you started this thread, been up a bit and now falling back. Just normal market moves if looked at in the short term.

For the last 2 months, since you started this thread, I have been of the same mind as Midas and have taken no real part in this market.

Well, I have actually shorted the Dax twice, both times my position moved into profit and I was able to move my stoploss to break even.

You have continued being bullish even through the recent 5% decline, but I wouldn't say that you were wrong just because the market has dropped back. Just a normal market movement, and I, for one am happy to see any sort of normal market movement. It may give me some opportunity to spot some swing trades.

[bkkexplorer]

Can you please share where I can get this list from. tks.

April 1st Faber advised investors to slowly accumulate all Asian markets. May 1st he recommended 25 stocks out of the 10,000 in the world and 7 were from Thailand. Doesnt sound like a bear to me.

[zorro1]

Err,

Hasn't Midas been saying that he has stayed out of the market?

In my opinion, if you think that market conditions are not right to risk your capital, bull or bear, then you can't be wrong. A good investor/speculator will only take the risk when he feels that conditions are in his favour.

Midas has been down ramping all the way through the rally. predicting a crash all the way through one of the quickest rallies in history . Midas never entered and probably never will. Down ramping however even as a non investor holds him accountable. down ramping to suit your entry point is not tolerated on all hard core trader forums such as hot copper. My ramping was in line with the market, big difference Loong and Im surprised at your response re Midas

Sorry that you are surprised, but if you two may have a history, I am unaware of it. You started this thread 2 months ago, and it is this thread that I refer to. The Dow is a bit more than 3% higher than when you started this thread, been up a bit and now falling back. Just normal market moves if looked at in the short term.

For the last 2 months, since you started this thread, I have been of the same mind as Midas and have taken no real part in this market.

Well, I have actually shorted the Dax twice, both times my position moved into profit and I was able to move my stoploss to break even.

You have continued being bullish even through the recent 5% decline, but I wouldn't say that you were wrong just because the market has dropped back. Just a normal market movement, and I, for one am happy to see any sort of normal market movement. It may give me some opportunity to spot some swing trades.

Loong I disclosed I entered in November and took a big hit on blue chip in the first month. they recovered and I switched to penny stock which went ballistic some with 300% gains. however they can fall just as hard. Me n Midas ha ha we have history, you can scroll through the property threads etc but all in good fun, he getting a whipping for now but the tables may turn and he will be relentless his relentless even when his wrong Loong is it just the last 2 months that made you hesitant? some of my biggest gains have happened in that period. To put it into perspective the rally has been raging since April so I dont know what your postion was then. why am I still bullish after the recent decline? i have every right to be. Major trend lines still intact. we both know the market will correct up or down but untill we have a major break out surley I shouldnt be crtitised for remaing bullish. Tell me if Im wrong happy to learn something new

[loong]

Loong is it just the last 2 months that made you hesitant? some of my biggest gains have happened in that period. To put it into perspective the rally has been raging since April so I dont know what your postion was then. why am I still bullish after the recent decline? i have every right to be. Major trend lines still intact. we both know the market will correct up or down but untill we have a major break out surley I shouldnt be crtitised for remaing bullish. Tell me if Im wrong happy to learn something new

Zorro, I refer to the bit of my post....

You have continued being bullish even through the recent 5% decline, but I wouldn't say that you were wrong just because the market has dropped back. Just a normal.....

I would hope that you don't read that as criticism.

To be honest with you, I'm more of a range trader for the short term. I hold shares in my portfolio for the long term, but prefer ranging markets for the short term. I like to see support/resistance tested 2 times before entering a trade within the range. When I trade breakouts, I like to see support/resistance broken followed by a failed attempt to break back through those levels. So you can see that long trends are not ideal for my method of short-term trading.

The battle of the bears and bulls at the bottom of the market suited me fine, I made a lot of money (by my standards) in February and March. Since then, my portfolio has done well, but day trading - no!. I'm not saying that I lost day trading - but just trod water.

As for 2 months ago, yes that was when I turned bearish to a degree. I have very little left in my portfolio now as I have been steadily closing positions.

For 2 months, I have not trusted the market to continue with the bull rally and at the same time, not enough evidence to go short for the long term.

I have been studying Forex for about the last 5 months as that seems to be a good market for technical analysis. I've traded the stockmarkets for 10 years using a mixture of fundamental and technical analysis and finally realised that fundamentals mean squat.

You can pick a stock based on fundamentals and you can be absolutely right, eventually that stock will go the way you expect, but to quote someone else (don't remember who!) The markets can remain irrational longer than you have money in your account.

My take on fundamentals, bearing in mind that the indices take into account expected performance in the future, not the present, is that the indices should be nearer their year lows than year highs. The western economy is balancing on a knife edge. There has been no recovery, it's just that there was an over-reaction, followed by a correction. Now, there is an over-reaction on the bullish side.

[zorro1]

have a feeling there is a a rabbit in a hat , would be kind of strange if we fell apart now after all that stimulas. Now is the time for panick for those that are drawn in by the Fabers. We are going to break hard one way or the other. My money is on 11500 on the dow. Im backing myself but still smart enough to have a stop. if I drop 15% I will still be happy chappy

Oh brother ........now he is relying on wabbits

And you said earlier fundamentals didn't matter - 't was all on setiment and momentum So now you can see the momentum is swinging the other way.

And the green futures will be red by tonight..........give it up now zorro before you sustain serious damage

'if I drop 15% I will still be happy chappy"

futures? dunno Midas they looking very green up 40 not long open bell why are they up? must be confusing for you markets should be going down today and tomorrow in theory right?, hope you finally didn't create the courage to back your self and go short... nah what am i saying you just enjoy the game you havnt the stomach for trading

Edited October 5, 2009 by zorro1

[zorro1]

Loong is it just the last 2 months that made you hesitant? some of my biggest gains have happened in that period. To put it into perspective the rally has been raging since April so I dont know what your postion was then. why am I still bullish after the recent decline? i have every right to be. Major trend lines still intact. we both know the market will correct up or down but untill we have a major break out surley I shouldnt be crtitised for remaing bullish. Tell me if Im wrong happy to learn something new

Zorro, I refer to the bit of my post....

You have continued being bullish even through the recent 5% decline, but I wouldn't say that you were wrong just because the market has dropped back. Just a normal.....

I would hope that you don't read that as criticism.

To be honest with you, I'm more of a range trader for the short term. I hold shares in my portfolio for the long term, but prefer ranging markets for the short term. I like to see support/resistance tested 2 times before entering a trade within the range. When I trade breakouts, I like to see support/resistance broken followed by a failed attempt to break back through those levels. So you can see that long trends are not ideal for my method of short-term trading.

The battle of the bears and bulls at the bottom of the market suited me fine, I made a lot of money (by my standards) in February and March. Since then, my portfolio has done well, but day trading - no!. I'm not saying that I lost day trading - but just trod water.

As for 2 months ago, yes that was when I turned bearish to a degree. I have very little left in my portfolio now as I have been steadily closing positions.

For 2 months, I have not trusted the market to continue with the bull rally and at the same time, not enough evidence to go short for the long term.

I have been studying Forex for about the last 5 months as that seems to be a good market for technical analysis. I've traded the stockmarkets for 10 years using a mixture of fundamental and technical analysis and finally realised that fundamentals mean squat.

You can pick a stock based on fundamentals and you can be absolutely right, eventually that stock will go the way you expect, but to quote someone else (don't remember who!) The markets can remain irrational longer than you have money in your account.

My take on fundamentals, bearing in mind that the indices take into account expected performance in the future, not the present, is that the indices should be nearer their year lows than year highs. The western economy is balancing on a knife edge. There has been no recovery, it's just that there was an over-reaction, followed by a correction. Now, there is an over-reaction on the bullish side.

woops i missed the normal bit ,

just want to say enjoy your posts you dont mind passing on your experience and knowledge which is a bit rare here, Im still very green but a fast learner and have learnt that day trading is only for the very knowledgeable few, all my day trades wiped out buy commission or panic sell after buying back in after a big profit and so it goes on, the reason i believe some of biggest gains were last few months is that most like to buy near the top of the rally, call it fear of missing out maybe. Or are they big boys buying and are we only 2 thirds from the top? time will tell

edit

"The markets can remain irrational longer than you have money in your account."

read somewhere that the markets mostly move randomly except for the obvious catastrophic or euphoric events on the dow or a particular stock. makes sense or we would all be very rich.

Edited October 5, 2009 by zorro1

[midas]

futures? dunno Midas they looking very green up 40 not long open bell why are they up? must be confusing for you markets should be going down today and tomorrow in theory right?, hope you finally didn't create the courage to back your self and go short... nah what am i saying you just enjoy the game you havnt the stomach for trading

I actually have a serious question for you zorro ( or Abrak or loong or anyone that might know the answer ).

It's commonly known that there is a Working Group on Financial Market (commonly known as

the " plunge protections team " ).

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/busin...ackm/plunge.htm

I assume that Timothy Geithner would be the one responsible for these activities. Now they

have managed to pump up the market to just under 10,000 ( a psychologically acceptable level -

not outrageous ) what would it cost the U.S. government to now keep it around this level for the foreseeable future.

i.e. throw everything they have at supporting it at that level no matter what ? Do they have enough money to do this?

I ask this because the behaviour and performance of the stock market is an obession to so many average people

so even if Obama is powerless to stop the gradual decay of the real economy and even if

there are early stages of further social decay in US, he could keep the sheeple happy by at least

supporting the market so that it it's engineered to go sideways for a longtime ?

This is actually another reason I refuse to go short because who knows what they have been

working out in the war room ?

[zorro1]

Midas thats difficult to answer, your posts suggests manipulation and "men in black theory"

If we dropped 300 points tonight you wouldn't be asking that question. The markets are always "manipulated" when they go against your own plan, when they dont its just common folk behaving with common sense

Edited October 5, 2009 by zorro1

[midas]

Midas thats difficult to answer, your posts suggests manipulation and "men in black theory"

If we dropped 300 points tonight you wouldn't be asking that question. The markets are always "manipulated" when they go against your own plan, when they dont its just common folk behaving with common sense

Of course there is manipulation of the market.

Its you that is not doing your reaearch If you did you would see there has been nothing normal

whatsoever regarding the participants or the volume in this rally

That is exactly my question. even if there were very volatile moves it doesnt mean

they would not be behind the scenes trying desparately to keep it up.

Could they do this ? Do they have enough money to do this ?

[zorro1]

Midas thats difficult to answer, your posts suggests manipulation and "men in black theory"

If we dropped 300 points tonight you wouldn't be asking that question. The markets are always "manipulated" when they go against your own plan, when they dont its just common folk behaving with common sense

Of course there is manipulation of the market.

Its you that is not doing your reaearch If you did you would see there has been nothing normal

whatsoever regarding the participants or the volume in this rally

That is exactly my question. even if there were very volatile moves it doesnt mean

they would not be behind the scenes trying desparately to keep it up.

Could they do this ? Do they have enough money to do this ?

"Of course there is manipulation of the market. "

totally agree with you there which is a first but totall manipulation of the dow? thats a big call

interesting rouhbini (spell check) just stated the economy has bottomed but the markets have overbought in relation. good news really but his just an anal ist what would he know? if by chance he is correct then just leave your shares and come back in 3 months. noticed the dow jumped on news that Iran caves in to nuclear demands . What a crazy market ! the trend is still up. some one give me a reason to sell ?

[zorro1]

wow look at the dow again, clawing back losses. Still a ways to go but looking strong for a green finish. ASX up today and green finish will see another up day tomorrow breaking 7 day losing streak. If it happens will confirm support on my chart and a buy signal unless you believe 3x test of support then give it a few days. 2x will do me not crazy to find absolute bottom or high

hmmmm what is going on? maybe midas men in black hard at work. Dont flame me in the morning if we down Im the only one making calls so some respect puleez

[Abrak]

errrm it was this year right after the red shirts stormed pattaya 11/4/09. I meant this year he called a big sell due to declining politicial stability, please forgive me mighty one how many times should I say " I meant this year?" he obliviously switched back in August. Wouldnt have a clue about 13 years ago since we are discussing the current state of affairs why would I quote something that Anal to prove a point? one more time "this year" just to avoid any more confusion . Now thats valid since he jumped the fence soon after so I dont take his word as gospel as some here do so I will not be selling because of Faber n co.

The thread is about who is in the markets. Midas isnt , he got it wrong wrong wrong. It has absolutely nothing to do with research . It has everything to do with investing . Midas chose Analysts and took them for their word and lost the game. It doesn't matter why your in or out it only matters if you missed the rally

Oh come on zorro you cant accuse someone of making an anal prediction and then say it is so anal that you dont need to show he made it. Especially when this prediction is supposed to show Midas isnt doing his research when in fact you have being suggesting that he would have been better off throwing fundamentals out of the window and getting in the market.

April 1st Faber advised investors to slowly accumulate all Asian markets. May 1st he recommended 25 stocks out of the 10,000 in the world and 7 were from Thailand. Doesnt sound like a bear to me.

that was before his political instability sell after red shirt drama. He is allowed to change his mind which he clearly did

So lets get this straight - the riots happened on the 11th April. He was bullish on the 1st of April. Bullish on the first of May but call a big sell (for which Midas and apparently the remains of the world didnt notice) imbetween.

I do not know anyone who owns more stocks in Thailand than him. So when you say he is 'allowed to change his mind which he clearly did' I would love to see either a bearish call or I have changed my mind call.

[zorro1]

.well i did read it in the bkk post from memory , maybe i was wrong, maybe the bkk post was wrong maybe cnbc was wrong, will try to find a link but dont care much either way dow flying again, faber already rich good luck to him

Edited October 5, 2009 by zorro1

[lannarebirth]

From the horses mouth: He likes Asia.

http://marcfaberblog.blogspot.com/search?u...;max-results=50

[zorro1]

errrm it was this year right after the red shirts stormed pattaya 11/4/09. I meant this year he called a big sell due to declining politicial stability, please forgive me mighty one how many times should I say " I meant this year?" he obliviously switched back in August. Wouldnt have a clue about 13 years ago since we are discussing the current state of affairs why would I quote something that Anal to prove a point? one more time "this year" just to avoid any more confusion . Now thats valid since he jumped the fence soon after so I dont take his word as gospel as some here do so I will not be selling because of Faber n co.

The thread is about who is in the markets. Midas isnt , he got it wrong wrong wrong. It has absolutely nothing to do with research . It has everything to do with investing . Midas chose Analysts and took them for their word and lost the game. It doesn't matter why your in or out it only matters if you missed the rally

Oh come on zorro you cant accuse someone of making an anal prediction and then say it is so anal that you dont need to show he made it. Especially when this prediction is supposed to show Midas isnt doing his research when in fact you have being suggesting that he would have been better off throwing fundamentals out of the window and getting in the market.

April 1st Faber advised investors to slowly accumulate all Asian markets. May 1st he recommended 25 stocks out of the 10,000 in the world and 7 were from Thailand. Doesnt sound like a bear to me.

that was before his political instability sell after red shirt drama. He is allowed to change his mind which he clearly did

So lets get this straight - the riots happened on the 11th April. He was bullish on the 1st of April. Bullish on the first of May but call a big sell (for which Midas and apparently the remains of the world didnt notice) imbetween.

I do not know anyone who owns more stocks in Thailand than him. So when you say he is 'allowed to change his mind which he clearly did' I would love to see either a bearish call or I have changed my mind call.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

dated 8th jan, he recommends not buying for a few months just as the set motors up into a rally

Faber also advises investors stay away from shares in Thailand, where he and his family are based. The nation's SET Index has been the world's worst-performing benchmark in the past month, sliding 15 percent as currency controls introduced by the central bank and bombs in Bangkok spooked investors.

``Valuations in Thailand are very inexpensive but I wouldn't buy tomorrow,'' said Faber. `` We have some political problems in Thailand right now. I'd wait for a couple of months.''

The SET is valued at 10 times estimated earnings, the lowest among 14 Asia-Pacific markets tracked by Bloomberg. MSCI's regional index is valued at 18 times.

edit. I got the dates wrong but he got the rally wrong a few months would be 2 -4 and being bullish in April /may <deleted> ? the set was screaming and outperforming most of world markets. Wonder if Faber was buying in Jan when he said dont buyLOL

Edited October 5, 2009 by zorro1

[Abrak]

Look Zorro Marc Faber is known for being very boring about two things Thailand and gold. I mean the number of so called gurus who have loved Thailand over the last 10 years can be counted on one finger of one hand. He has obviously been right about gold but he was probably recommending 20 years ago for all I know. He has done very well this year, you know the Dow bottomed in March and while you say the SET has been screaming ahead (you,I think you are comparing with the Dow which has been a dog) the SET only started outperforming the MSCI about 2 months ago. Might be wrong havent checked the figures after basically underperforming for 15 years.

And at least he was on the buy tack near the bottom of the markets and the SET didnt move from January to March. And I think he was about the only mega bear to turn bullish at the bottom. Actually I agree with one of the comments you made that markets actually bottomed in November (apologies if you didnt say it) even though say the Dow was 1000 points lower in March. But if you say look at Vix. The March move down was very surprising imho. This a fancy way of saying I called things far

too early.

His overall track record is patchy but he has lots of interesting ideas combined with journalist front liners and a certain amount of lunacy. My guess is that if he didnt have that ridiculous pony tail he would be a very rich man.

BTW he makes ridiculous predictions (super hyperinflation), strange ones - half the world will die of swine flu but you can read some of his work 5 or 10 years back that were spot on to what is happening now.

Well telling people to wait a couple of month on the 8th of January generally worked - Dow bottomed on March 9th.

But I believe the only guy who has got it pretty well spot on (with arguments so convincing that if you are not right today you will be tomorrow) is Robert Shiller.

Edited October 5, 2009 by Abrak

[midas]

noticed the dow jumped on news that Iran caves in to nuclear demands .

If you believe that you believe anything

[midas]

a picture says a thousand words zorro

[zorro1]

a picture says a thousand words zorro

is a good day today Midas, just sold my major gold holding bcn after she jumped 30% today but get all my shares back at 30% less when SPP is finalised. Avery good day indeed Midas. enjoy your postings here Im off for the day for a very long lunch

[badge]

a picture says a thousand words zorro

Sorry, what are we supposed to be seeing? That screen shot is so small its unreadable.

[lannarebirth]

Putting the technical and fundamental arguments aside for a moment and getting down to how markets work, ie: thinking like a criminal. How soon till the since March buyers frontrun the folks who bought last November and are holding for preferential capital gains treatment?

Edited October 6, 2009 by lannarebirth

[Naam]

a picture says a thousand words zorro

Sorry, what are we supposed to be seeing? That screen shot is so small its unreadable.

the head&shoulders>tits>pussy line is clearly visible and it bears bad and bearish news.

[Naam]

a picture says a thousand words zorro

is a good day today Midas, just sold my major gold holding bcn after she jumped 30% today but get all my shares back at 30% less when SPP is finalised. Avery good day indeed Midas. enjoy your postings here Im off for the day for a very long lunch

disgusting... as usual... i rest my case

[zorro1]

a picture says a thousand words zorro

is a good day today Midas, just sold my major gold holding bcn after she jumped 30% today but get all my shares back at 30% less when SPP is finalised. Avery good day indeed Midas. enjoy your postings here Im off for the day for a very long lunch

disgusting... as usual... i rest my case

burp excuse me they didn't have champers so a large bottle of chung was in order, I to can see an inverted pussy in Midas very poor quality photo.Why one would post a pic of one is a bit odd. The g/f said its bad news so sold down some of my stock, just the ones that were green ,difficult to choose since they all green

[zorro1]

futures on fire ! the dow is rejecting support so far, tomorrow will or should confirm a strong buy. didnt Faber recommend a sell? not that I listen to him anywayz

[zorro1]

where is every one? gee a couple of good nights and the bears back in the cave. Midas you dont stop just because you getting it wrong again, thought you were a stayer or you just pop in when the dow red?

[lannarebirth]

where is every one? gee a couple of good nights and the bears back in the cave. Midas you dont stop just because you getting it wrong again, thought you were a stayer or you just pop in when the dow red?

Aren't you the only one on this thread that owns stocks? Maybe some others trade them, i don't know. What is it you're looking for, someone to chat with?

[teletiger]

At what gold price do they tank the DOW?

Regards.

[lannarebirth]

At what gold price do they tank the DOW?

Regards.

I'm not sure they would, it's the ratio that''s significant, for those who follow those things. I think(vague recollection) during the Great Depression the DJI fell 90% versus Gold. You can do the math on what that might mean now. Personally I don't think it could happen again, but you never know. Don't have a chart that goes back that far but this is kind of interesting:

As an aside, I see a lot of people here refer to the Dow or INDU. It's really not a market worth watching IMO. If one does watch, understand it is a price weighted index and you should really see what all 30 stocks are doing on a given day. I've seen the Dow end positive with 5 stocks in the green and 25 in the red. Dow breadth is good thing to follow for market turns if you're not too picky a timer.

Edited October 6, 2009 by lannarebirth

[zorro1]

where is every one? gee a couple of good nights and the bears back in the cave. Midas you dont stop just because you getting it wrong again, thought you were a stayer or you just pop in when the dow red?

Aren't you the only one on this thread that owns stocks? Maybe some others trade them, i don't know. What is it you're looking for, someone to chat with?

that's ridicules Im looking for consistency, not weak hands that only post to suit there entry exit points. Im the only one here so far that has the balls to call long positions. apparently every one else is a trader ? think about that ... not one single person has declared a long position, very poor form , unless of course Im surrounded by super day traders. I doubt that very much