The Stock Market

[zorro1]

Time to talk about the markets again since we have "blood on the streets"

Who is ready for the plunge? As of Friday we have completed the 2nd biggest rally in U.S stock history. My position has been strong buy since November 2008 and have a very substantial holding

Here are a few charts on gold, silver, etc and more importantly where the DOW is heading. The charts arnt mine but this guy knows his stuff

http://docs.google.com/present/view?id=dcfxhq6g_89c9d2q3f7

[Abrak]

Time to talk about the markets again since we have "blood on the streets"

Who is ready for the plunge? As of Friday we have completed the 2nd biggest rally in U.S stock history. My position has been strong buy since November 2008 and have a very substantial holding

Here are a few charts on gold, silver, etc and more importantly where the DOW is heading. The charts arnt mine but this guy knows his stuff

http://docs.google.com/present/view?id=dcfxhq6g_89c9d2q3f7

While not arguing with your stats I just would like to point out that the only time that the DJ did have such a significant bounce in a bear market it was because it was the only time that it was so oversold.

All the other bear markets have taken much longer to reach lower lows. Obviously whether you see this as the bottom or a bear market rally, if you do have a very fast fall, you do have a very significant rally. And when I say it was obvious, it wasnt obvious enough to me unfortunately.

Here are some big bear markets in the last 120 years.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/lundeen101308.html

As far as I can tell all you can see is Zorro's point which is that by November 2008 the DJ was either a trading buy against a bear market or a buy because it was near the bottom of the bear market itself. I cant see the bounce tells us much of very much at all from these levels.

[flying]

definitely at a crossroad

[zorro1]

Time to talk about the markets again since we have "blood on the streets"

Who is ready for the plunge? As of Friday we have completed the 2nd biggest rally in U.S stock history. My position has been strong buy since November 2008 and have a very substantial holding

Here are a few charts on gold, silver, etc and more importantly where the DOW is heading. The charts arnt mine but this guy knows his stuff

http://docs.google.com/present/view?id=dcfxhq6g_89c9d2q3f7

While not arguing with your stats I just would like to point out that the only time that the DJ did have such a significant bounce in a bear market it was because it was the only time that it was so oversold.

All the other bear markets have taken much longer to reach lower lows. Obviously whether you see this as the bottom or a bear market rally, if you do have a very fast fall, you do have a very significant rally. And when I say it was obvious, it wasnt obvious enough to me unfortunately.

Here are some big bear markets in the last 120 years.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/lundeen101308.html

As far as I can tell all you can see is Zorro's point which is that by November 2008 the DJ was either a trading buy against a bear market or a buy because it was near the bottom of the bear market itself. I cant see the bounce tells us much of very much at all from these levels.

Agree 100% oversold then over bought. I beleieve the bearish instos have been forced in taking a postion only recently which will give the rally some more legs till 2010 as the gap in the Dow chart clearly shows. Personally the trend is your friend will keep me holding medium term

[vedantafx]

definitely at a crossroad

Very interesting chart that Flying, did you construct that yourself? I have been observing the similarities between the two previous bears, but havent seen the overlay of all three...We are at a crossroads for sure. I m kind of the mind, that we will se a 1929 style collapse, but cannot be sure of course. The money printing and the USD liquidity could drive stocks much higher in nominal terms, of course at the expense of a very weak USD and we could get a market thats looks more like the 1970's with the huge trading range.

The point that makes me lean more towards a 1929 style fall is of course that the debt load is huge, and credit(in the private sector) is being destroyed much faster than the QE programs. We still have a highly leveraged consumer and the banks are hoarding money from the real economy. Inflation is also for now in check...I think the stockmarket is pricing in a V shaped recovery which will not happen in my opinion. Peoples attitudes to debt have changed. The US economy is 70% consumer spending, when the markets realise the US consumer will not be coming back (one only has to look at the savings rate, they have no savings and the savings rate is going up) as they have in other recessions in 1991 and 2002/03, then I think stocks will fall hard. Once this is realised then I think the stockmarket will price this in accordingly. Perhaps we could get a mix of the two bear markets of the past, perhaps stocks will test the previous lows without making new lows, though I think if we get down to those support levels again they will be broken.

I would be hedged accordingly for either scenario as we just don't know yet. I m short sterling/gpy, not short any indexes yet, but looking to short when price gives some confirmation. In the event I short the index, I would take out a call option/warrant on the S+P 500 as at least this would provide a hedge in the event markets continue higher into next year... SG Call Warrant strike price 1000, effective gearing of 5.4 percent meaning that for every 1% movement in the underlaying, your position will change by 5.4%....this warrant still has plenty of time value, and shouldnt suffer too much from time decay for quite afew months, but as I say it might be an idea for ahedge if going short, of course if one is holding stocks and is bullish and thinks the market will move up, a "put" on the index would be a good hedge also.

[nakachalet]

zorro1

i just wonder from whom did you get that reference chart?

in order to read the market with any degree of accuracy, accurate enough to invest into the products/markets, he/she must possess the ability to foresee future.

i always find it somewhat cynical to hear or see a broker, be it local thai or farang broker, showing various charts to support his/her theory or assumption that a certain product or market is heading north or south.... once during my post-graduate study tenure in the us around 1980, there was an unfair contest between an unnamed wallstreet broker using all the available charts against a four legged monkey who was allowed only a throwing dart to throw at wallstreet jornal--to pick a market to invest in.

at the end of the contest period, it was announced that human's picking of the stocks did not flare any better than the ones picked by our four legged friend. it was a real insult to those humans working in brokerage firms across the us and the world as well.

pls do not take me wrong, i have no intention to belittle brokers around the world. most are too wealthy for my taste any way.... lol

but think of it from individual investors' point of view though,

how can you be sure that the brokers that you select from a bunch will be able to trade your acc't profitably for you and your family?

before you open a trading acc't with any brokerage firm, you must ask that individual broker to show you some current proof that he/she can really trade for profit, ok?

pls do not accept the broker's verbal assurance that he has insurmountable experiences in the market and that he has been trading even before you were born....

specifically, you as a private investor and a potential client, do have all the rights in the world to ask him for his last year trading results which is normally taxonomized by month, from month to month summary....

if your potential broker wisely refuses or gives you different excuses as to why his prior trading results can not be shown to you or that you may have a copy of his trading performance AFTER you sign up with him or his firm....

as a human with money in your own pocket, you know what to do, right?

i am not revealing any deep dark secret of investment here. what i am trying to do is to help potential future individual investors to ask intelligent questions which might help to weed out brokers who prey on investors' timidity and eagerness to make money in the stock market or futures commodity markets both locally and abroad.

thai, chinese, indian, malay, s'porean potential investors BEWARE.... brokerage commission could eventually suck you dry and their convenient trading on your acc't could also bleed your cash position to a zero sum game--as most brokers already claimed.

again, pls do not get me wrong--there are numerous brilliant brokers and traders out there, who could make your acc't grow month after month.... but they are so difficult to find... it is even more difficult than finding a needle on a freeway.... lol

you must exercise due diligence before depositing your hard earned cash into someone else's acc't.... it is so easy for eager investors to do upon the promise of the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.... lol

but i can assure you one thing, when you want to ask for your money back, it would be a surprise to discover how much really is left....

normally, i am not accustomed to writing negative and oppressive post like this. but i just feel the urge that i must say something like this, something negative like this to warm my fellow investors to be extremely cautious of the likelihood of losing your cash and seeing your acc't diminishing right under your nose. at that time, do not expect your wonderful broker to help you, most won't refund you, not even one cent.

if you are still eager to invest like a hopeless romantic on the prowl at kow san road, that is ok too.... lol

just remember that more than 90% of those who invested in the stock market lost, only about 10% reap profitably.

speaking from personal experience: it is not easy even for brokers to make money in the market; most of the time, most of the money that they claimed to make comes from commissions and from your acc't....

am i a licensed broker? no. am i investing in the market? yes. am i making money? yes. who is my broker? none.

Edited August 1, 2009 by nakachalet

[zorro1]

nakachalet

I'm a member of a forum called hotcopper dot com. au (cant post link)

80,000 members and the charts come from a guy with nic Robbbbbbb. He does a video and slide presentation every weekend and is the number one rated poster on the site. Hes predictions are accurate and hes not a broker as they are banned from the site. Hes entry and exit points particularly with s/t BHP trades are truly beyond belief.

EDIT

I dont really know many who use a broker these days. The trend now is join a real time platform like E trade PRO and DYOR. $20/ trade and a sensible use of stop loss will see your hard earned well protected.

Edited August 1, 2009 by zorro1

[nakachalet]

zorro1

thx much for your updated info.

now i become intensely interested to follow his trading, only at a distance of course.

could you pls pm me the link, so i may follow his trading and which i'll be very grateful.

don't worry about the time, it is only 01:45 here, and i'll be up a while yet waiting for some confirmation on currencies.

thx again

high regards

[nakachalet]

zorro1

at this time of the night, it seems like we are the only two humans left on this whole wide world.... lol

what does it mean 20 dollars/trade? is it roundturn--both getting in and getting out at 20 dollars?

is is aus dollars or us dollars pls?

thx again

[nakachalet]

zorro1

no need to pm. the site is discovered. will read with immense interest.

if there is something beyond my limited understanding, may i call on you for help, pls?

thx again.

[zorro1]

zorro1

at this time of the night, it seems like we are the only two humans left on this whole wide world.... lol

what does it mean 20 dollars/trade? is it roundturn--both getting in and getting out at 20 dollars?

is is aus dollars or us dollars pls?

thx again

nakachalet only reason I'm here is its keeping me off the streets of Bangkok and out of mischief lol. Its a sliding scale , your first 20 trades are at around $35 in AND $35 out and the drops to $20 in AND $20 out. I trade withe directshares.com.au so you can check out their prices on line , in OZ dollars. Avoid brokers like the plague.

[zorro1]

zorro1

no need to pm. the site is discovered. will read with immense interest.

if there is something beyond my limited understanding, may i call on you for help, pls?

thx again.

no probs anytime

[flying]

Very interesting chart that Flying, did you construct that yourself? I have been observing the similarities between the two previous bears, but havent seen the overlay of all three...We are at a crossroads for sure. I m kind of the mind, that we will se a 1929 style collapse, but cannot be sure of course. The money printing and the USD liquidity could drive stocks much higher in nominal terms, of course at the expense of a very weak USD and we could get a market thats looks more like the 1970's with the huge trading range.

The point that makes me lean more towards a 1929 style fall is of course that the debt load is huge, and credit(in the private sector) is being destroyed much faster than the QE programs. We still have a highly leveraged consumer and the banks are hoarding money from the real economy. Inflation is also for now in check...I think the stockmarket is pricing in a V shaped recovery which will not happen in my opinion. Peoples attitudes to debt have changed. The US economy is 70% consumer spending, when the markets realise the US consumer will not be coming back (one only has to look at the savings rate, they have no savings and the savings rate is going up) as they have in other recessions in 1991 and 2002/03, then I think stocks will fall hard. Once this is realised then I think the stockmarket will price this in accordingly. Perhaps we could get a mix of the two bear markets of the past, perhaps stocks will test the previous lows without making new lows, though I think if we get down to those support levels again they will be broken.

I would be hedged accordingly for either scenario as we just don't know yet. I m short sterling/gpy, not short any indexes yet, but looking to short when price gives some confirmation. In the event I short the index, I would take out a call option/warrant on the S+P 500 as at least this would provide a hedge in the event markets continue higher into next year... SG Call Warrant strike price 1000, effective gearing of 5.4 percent meaning that for every 1% movement in the underlaying, your position will change by 5.4%....this warrant still has plenty of time value, and shouldnt suffer too much from time decay for quite afew months, but as I say it might be an idea for ahedge if going short, of course if one is holding stocks and is bullish and thinks the market will move up, a "put" on the index would be a good hedge also.

HI vedantafx

No it is not mine I saw it online

Probably just a merge of this famous graph that is updated often...

At this site

http://www.dshort.com/articles/2009/bear-turns-to-bull.html

Like I said definitely a crossroad but logically I am 99% certain we have nowhere to go but down. I can even pretend I dont see the debt as we as a country have always had debt..Of course no where near the amounts we have now but still...That aside it is just so many factors. Like all the negative factors you listed & more.

Like you I hope for the best & prepare for the worst

V shaped recovery? Like you I think not.

U shaped recovery? Doubt it

W shaped? Looks more like it these days. But not a proportionate W

I had to laugh about the L shaped recovery of the Nikkei just sounded funny

http://www.dshort.com/articles/2009/mega-bear-quartet.html

August will be interesting

Good Luck with the markets

Edited August 1, 2009 by flying

[Abrak]

Nakachalet,

I dont think anyone is claiming anything from this chart.

Zorro1 is simply claiming momentum is in the favour of the market going up, imho, he can also claim sentiment, as most people dont seem bullish the market is likely to go up also.

Fundamentals would seem against the market - the 10 year MVA of earnings is at 54 and as, 'as reported' earnings are close to zero, so the MVA is moving down. The market is on 17x against an average PE of 15.5x while the MVA is unlikely to be higher in 5 years.

So personally I do think you can show things by charts. For instance if you made a simple assumption that you bought the DJI when it had fallen 2/3rds in real terms from its peak or sold it, if it increased 3x in real terms from its lows, you would always have made money (obviously not in the short term but say on a 5 year view).

[zorro1]

Nakachalet,

Zorro1 is simply claiming momentum is in the favour of the market going up, imho, he can also claim sentiment, as most people dont seem bullish the market is likely to go up also.

quote

Bingo, exactly what I mean. momentum and sentiment will drive the markets forward short to medium term. Just look at the way the DOW has chomped through horrific data and now we are actually getting snippets of good news forcing the bears to cover shorts. Trade whatever style you like but momentum trades are the most rewarding and no need to jump ship and buck the trend now. I really hope we dont start getting out dated cut n paste articles emerging here but its a free forum and bingo bongo will show up soon

[Abrak]

Like I said definitely a crossroad but logically I am 99% certain we have nowhere to go but down. I can even pretend I dont see the debt as we as a country have always had debt..Of course no where near the amounts we have now but still...That aside it is just so many factors. Like all the negative factors you listed & more.

Like you I hope for the best & prepare for the worst

V shaped recovery? Like you I think not.

U shaped recovery? Doubt it

W shaped? Looks more like it these days. But not a proportionate W

I had to laugh about the L shaped recovery of the Nikkei just sounded funny

http://www.dshort.com/articles/2009/mega-bear-quartet.html

Flying I tend to agree with you but I do increasingly see commentary like this....

Never has a bull market climbed a steeper wall of worry. In spite of a

proliferation of positive economic indicators, the consensus remains

gloomy. Bullish economists are rarer than hens' teeth.

The average forecast for third-quarter US gross domestic product growth

is a weak 0.8 per cent, which would be by far the slowest first quarter

of any recovery on record. Since 1945, the average annualised real US

growth rate in the first two quarters of recovery is 7 per cent. History

provides abundant evidence that the deeper the recession, the stronger

the bounce. Even the recovery from the Great Depression conformed to

this rule, real US GDP grew 10.8 per cent in 1934 and 8.9 per cent in

1935.

Yet today's consensus assumes this time things will be different. The

persistence of such pessimism is striking given a strong Asian recovery

is visible, with output, employment and demand all following V-shaped

trajectories, and regional industrial production rapidly bouncing back

above the previous peak. Yet this recovery is dismissed by western

analysts, who appear unable or unwilling to believe the region is

capable of endogenous growth. That 2009 will be the second year in a row

in which the increase in Chinese domestic demand exceeds that of the US

is a point roundly ignored.

The fate of the Chinese economy is supposedly in thrall to the US

consumer, in spite of clear and persistent evidence to the contrary. The

US economy, which provides a home to 17 per cent of China's exports, is

still seen as the arbiter of growth in Asia. This obstinate adherence to

an outdated assessment of economic dependence is not the only gaping

intellectual flaw.

The 9.5 per cent US unemployment rate is also viewed as an obstacle to

recovery. This objection ignores the many contrary examples of high

unemployment rates and subsequent recoveries, not least in the US. Thus

in 1982, US unemployment hit 10.8 per cent, yet GDP soared at an average

annual pace of 7.7 per cent over the next six quarters.

Similarly, few commentators consider the possibility that the large

post-Lehman rise in US unemployment was a mistake on the part of panicky

managements. Yet this is precisely what trends in labour productivity

growth, not to mention common sense, tell us occurred. In the first half

of 2008, labour productivity growth averaged 3.3 per cent, while the

unemployment rate rose to 5.6 per cent. At that point, there was no

evidence US companies were overstaffed. Thereafter, output collapsed,

yet business productivity growth remained positive, registering an

average yearly pace of over 2 per cent, as companies shed labour at a

faster pace than they reduced output. Businesses, like markets, panicked

after Lehman went under. Employment and output were both reduced far

more than it turned out to be necessary, as businesses temporarily and

understandably assumed a worst case scenario.

Just as global output is performing a V-shaped recovery, there is a big

risk US employment will do the same, with monthly payrolls showing

surprising growth by the end of 2009.

If unemployment is one half of the bearish consensus, de-leveraging is

seen as the other main obstacle to recovery. Yet increases in private

leverage never play a significant role in recoveries. Indeed, since

1950, US private sector borrowing ex-mortgages has declined an average

0.1 per cent of GDP in the first year of recovery, with non-financial

business borrowing declining 0.6 per cent of GDP.

A regression of the household savings rate on the wealth-to-income ratio

tells us the former has made the appropriate adjustment to declines in

the latter. In fact, the rally in the stock market, the low level of

interest rates and the stabilisation in house prices all tend to limit

the risk of a further sizeable increase in the savings rate. So over the

rest of this year, the standard cyclical timing of a US economic turning

point tells us pessimistic expectations are likely to collide with the

economic reality of a strong recovery. The net result is almost

inevitable, in the shape of an inexorable continuation of the equity

rally.

This comes from Barclays. While I dont see any reason for this sort of optimism, others seem to. I wonder to what extent he is making the facts - a big recovery in asset markets - fit his fundamentals. To the extent that the stockmarket has discounted a recovery, we are best to assume a recovery has happened rather than it is wrong.

[flying]

Flying I tend to agree with you but I do increasingly see commentary like this....

Never has a bull market climbed a steeper wall of worry. In spite of a

proliferation of positive economic indicators, the consensus remains

gloomy. Bullish economists are rarer than hens' teeth.

This comes from Barclays. While I dont see any reason for this sort of optimism, others seem to. I wonder to what extent he is making the facts - a big recovery in asset markets - fit his fundamentals. To the extent that the stockmarket has discounted a recovery, we are best to assume a recovery has happened rather than it is wrong.

I think we will see $$$ run from bonds to stock markets then stock markets to bonds as the markets tank again......rinse & repeat as many times as needed for the honest folks to get the message as their $$$ gets smaller with each pass.

Barclays said the optimistic part of your post quote? This optimism from them surprises you?

Barclays PLC (Barclays) is a global financial services provider engaged in retail and commercial banking, credit cards, investment banking, wealth management and investment management services

Folks have eyes they need only look around to see.

Edited August 1, 2009 by flying

[loong]

Although I tend to agree with "The trend is your friend" I would not advise anyone to jump on the bullmarket bandwagon at the moment. If you are already in and riding the profits all well and good, but I find it too difficult to call at the moment.

The German Dax in particular has over-reacted to every glimmer of good news from the US.

A fall of at least 10% is on the cards, it just needs a run of not so good news to instigate it.

In my opinion the Ftse and Dax are running out of steam, I'm getting no indication re the Dow at all.

Best just to watch for now I think. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see sharp declines in the markets this week coupled with a strengthening US$ vs GBP and Euro.

I'm not a big fan of stoplosses myself. Even large cap stocks are subject to occasional exceptionally large spreads that can trigger a stoploss!

[bjohn34]

I'm not a big fan of stoplosses myself. Even large cap stocks are subject to occasional exceptionally large spreads that can trigger a stoploss!

Different strokes for different folks.

I use stoplosses on every equity position I have and if a particilar stock has moved up very rapidly, i move the stops up daily and keep them tight to protect as much profit as i can. Occasionally one gets triggered that I did not intend, but with commissions so low at $1-$3 each way, I can buy back in with little cost penalty if I decide to. It is cheap insurance to me.

[loong]

Bjohn, absolutely true, what is good for one is not necessarily good for everyone. Is that trading US stocks? About the best deal you can get in the UK is 10 pounds commission charge, so 20 pounds to buy and sell plus half % stamp duty on the buy. That's a total of about 45 pounds on an average deal or 75 $US.

I mainly only deal in stocks listed on the London stock exchange, maybe other exchanges don't suffer these occasional extremely large spreads?

When I trade the indices via CFDs, I do use stoplosses as the spreads do not alter unexpectedly.

eg. In my previous post I said that I'm inclined to think that the German Dax will fall, it's 5333 at the moment and so I would maybe short it with a stoploss at 5383. The spread on the Dax is always 2, so no nasty surprises.

The same with currency pairs, little change in the spread and so I use stoplosses. Mind you, I've only started currencies about 4 months ago, so still a lot to learn. Any expert advice on currency pairs would be much appreciated. I'm only concentrating on the Euro/US$ at the moment, learning to walk before I start running.

I deal CFDs with Cantours and Spreadbetting with MAN group. Unfortunately, neither have the facility to place a trailing stoploss. I feel that this could be very useful with currencies. Anybody have any recommendations? I believe that IG offer a trailing stoploss, anybody had any experience with them? I think that I will have to be in the UK to open a new account as they usually will send a contract and contact by telephone.

[midas]

Bingo, exactly what I mean. momentum and sentiment will drive the markets forward short to medium term. Just look at the way the DOW has chomped through horrific data and now we are actually getting snippets of good news forcing the bears to cover shorts. Trade whatever style you like but momentum trades are the most rewarding and no need to jump ship and buck the trend now. I really hope we dont start getting out dated cut n paste articles emerging here but its a free forum and bingo bongo will show up soon

bingo bongo didnt show up so i will instead

So big deal - " momentum and sentiment will drive the markets forward " proves nothing............its just the PPT at work

http://www.examiner.com/x-1528-Baltimore-P...he-stock-market

[bjohn34]

Bjohn, absolutely true, what is good for one is not necessarily good for everyone. Is that trading US stocks? About the best deal you can get in the UK is 10 pounds commission charge, so 20 pounds to buy and sell plus half % stamp duty on the buy. That's a total of about 45 pounds on an average deal or 75 $US.

I mainly only deal in stocks listed on the London stock exchange, maybe other exchanges don't suffer these occasional extremely large spreads?

When I trade the indices via CFDs, I do use stoplosses as the spreads do not alter unexpectedly.

eg. In my previous post I said that I'm inclined to think that the German Dax will fall, it's 5333 at the moment and so I would maybe short it with a stoploss at 5383. The spread on the Dax is always 2, so no nasty surprises.

The same with currency pairs, little change in the spread and so I use stoplosses. Mind you, I've only started currencies about 4 months ago, so still a lot to learn. Any expert advice on currency pairs would be much appreciated. I'm only concentrating on the Euro/US$ at the moment, learning to walk before I start running.

I deal CFDs with Cantours and Spreadbetting with MAN group. Unfortunately, neither have the facility to place a trailing stoploss. I feel that this could be very useful with currencies. Anybody have any recommendations? I believe that IG offer a trailing stoploss, anybody had any experience with them? I think that I will have to be in the UK to open a new account as they usually will send a contract and contact by telephone.

[/quotI

I trade US, London, Canada, Hong Kong and Australia. I use my Interactivebrokers account for all of these. As examples, commission on London stock transaction is 6 GBP each way up to 50000 GBP trade value. US stock commission is $0.005USD per share with minimum of $1.00US.

I use my IB account for forex trades also.

I also trade Shanghai B shares and Thai SET stocks but have separate accounts for these as they are not avaiable on my IB account.

[Naam]

it is comforting to know that the LORD has sent again prophets to this planet to guide us

[Gary A]

I can't get back in because I never got out. I am still down 39.6 percent and I'm not sure it will ever come back. In any case, it's just less money my kids will inherit.

[zorro1]

I'm not a big fan of stoplosses myself. Even large cap stocks are subject to occasional exceptionally large spreads that can trigger a stoploss!

Different strokes for different folks.

I use stoplosses on every equity position I have and if a particilar stock has moved up very rapidly, i move the stops up daily and keep them tight to protect as much profit as i can. Occasionally one gets triggered that I did not intend, but with commissions so low at $1-$3 each way, I can buy back in with little cost penalty if I decide to. It is cheap insurance to me.

I know the feeling, cheering a stock along even after its poked 3 inches above the bollinger and in your gut you just now it HAS to retrace so you turn a blind eye, then it does and then the ineveatble -220 on the dow and back to square one. I use the Iress Live platfrom everyday so I can drop out at any time but if Im away a day then a stop is firmly in place. Some of the super big $$$ traders use brokers to place a buy sell so its off the screen and out of their control.

The only problem is using stops on illiquid stock that swing 10% or more daily.

Im still amazed at the bears reluctance to re enter. Even at 8000 everyone was still saying a retrace to 6500 on the dow The rally has caught as many by surprise on the way up as it did on the way down.

[zorro1]

well well, another great day on the ASX and futures up 70 points

Really odd that majority of posts re markets and property on TV are around 80% NEG ,when its the opposite if you visit the related forums in other countries such as hotcopper.com.au , even hard core bears admit defeat, kid you not. Starting to think that people on here suffer depression or Asia fever as its commonly known

[midas]

well well, another great day on the ASX and futures up 70 points

Really odd that majority of posts re markets and property on TV are around 80% NEG ,when its the opposite if you visit the related forums in other countries such as hotcopper.com.au , even hard core bears admit defeat, kid you not. Starting to think that people on here suffer depression or Asia fever as its commonly known

You are starting to sound like a used car salesman zorro.

There is nothing to suggest people are depressed simply because they refuse to

participate in the upward movement. They could be patiently waiting for the

opportunity to sell short or buy put options because no market has ever stayed

up permanently.

And that is another reason not to listen to you about real estate because at least in stocks

you can make money on the downward leg but if you buy a condo now and things

dont stay positive as are 80 % expecting- you could just end with

an albatross

Edited August 3, 2009 by midas

[loong]

well well, another great day on the ASX and futures up 70 points

Really odd that majority of posts re markets and property on TV are around 80% NEG ,when its the opposite if you visit the related forums in other countries such as hotcopper.com.au , even hard core bears admit defeat, kid you not. Starting to think that people on here suffer depression or Asia fever as its commonly known

I don't really follow the Australian market, but the Ftse is up to on the back of gains by Banks and Miners. Banks and miners are not good indicators. Most times they make impressive gains only to retract a day or 2 later. Oil and commodities in particular are very volatile and tend to skew the markets.

I have seen nothing today that would tempt me to buy into this market. Saying that, I'd also want to see the US$ strengthening before shorting the market.

I've already shorted the Euro vs US$ once today and after moving the stop the position was closed with 60 pips profit. Euro strengthened again and so I now have another open position shorting Euro/US$ at 1.4300. Initially showed a loss, but I'd rather be trading currencies than the exchanges at the moment!

Of course, I may be wrong, I often am. It's impossible to get it right all the time. I just feel that there is too much downside risk in the stockmarket right now.

[zorro1]

LOL midas you stalking me, I Just lurvvv the attention futures up 98 points now http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html there is a monster rally happeneing as we speak. Who should we believe , the billions enetering the market tonight ot Midas? .......not midas lol

Started this thread so we could keep the 2 separate.

[midas]

LOL midas you stalking me, I Just lurvvv the attention futures up 98 points now http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html there is a monster rally happeneing as we speak. Who should we believe , the billions enetering the market tonight ot Midas? .......not midas lol

Started this thread so we could keep the 2 separate.

Enjoy zorro but just be aware of this :-

Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index is poised to plunge as much as 19 percent within three months, based on technical analysis by Chart Partners Group Ltd.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=azs3qhTNKwes