The Stock Market

[teletiger]

It seems to me that there's too much short interest in gold to let the market run away north. Adding to the shorts with a $2Trillion gorilla on the put, doesn't seem like an attractive option. Tanking the market could be a win win for the US. Everybody runs into US treasuries and bonds, gold pulls back. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Regards.

[lannarebirth]

where is every one? gee a couple of good nights and the bears back in the cave. Midas you dont stop just because you getting it wrong again, thought you were a stayer or you just pop in when the dow red?

Aren't you the only one on this thread that owns stocks? Maybe some others trade them, i don't know. What is it you're looking for, someone to chat with?

that's ridicules Im looking for consistency, not weak hands that only post to suit there entry exit points. Im the only one here so far that has the balls to call long positions. apparently every one else is a trader ? think about that ... not one single person has declared a long position, very poor form , unless of course Im surrounded by super day traders. I doubt that very much

I make about 500 trades per year +/-, three since the last time we chatted, none of which are stocks. I do belong to a private board where I discuss these things. Why would you expect people would do that here on a Thailand forum?

Personally, I have no great insight into the global economy ar even global markets. I'm pretty good at pulling money out of them though, using methods I've worked with for a very long time. I understand you're doing well, and I think that's fantastic. Congratulations.

[zorro1]

congrats to you to. But WHERE is everyone else? I have held my ground and made my calls , maybe I expect to much from a trading forum on TV. Im on hotcopper.com.au hard core trading forum and get 20 responses in a few hours and so does every one else. I put it down to the general negative sentiment on TV re anything to do with any type of recovery. Will post lest frequently from now , most have a hard core view and I have made my point, hopefully helping a few on the way (actually lots of pm.s thanking me, that's enough reward for me)

[flying]

In hindsight

GS being the market controlling scum they are was the trade to buy eh?

Edited October 6, 2009 by flying

[Abrak]

where is every one? gee a couple of good nights and the bears back in the cave. Midas you dont stop just because you getting it wrong again, thought you were a stayer or you just pop in when the dow red?

Zorro, a question for you.

If you look at Lannaberth's chart of the Dow to Gold you will see over time it is inversely correlated to a high degree. You can take that chart back through the 1970s and it would be true (gold went up, stocks were dogs). So it would seem strange (not wrong) that you are bullish of gold and the Dow. I mean the inverse correlation is massive.

So why do you think you are weighted that way (apart from the fact that you think you will be right)?

And I am not trying to make the point that as there has been an inverse correlation in the past you are bound to wrong on one or other. I personally think you will be right on both or wrong both. But I am interested as to why you think there is a positive correlation now.

Edited October 6, 2009 by Abrak

[Naam]

where is every one? gee a couple of good nights and the bears back in the cave. Midas you dont stop just because you getting it wrong again, thought you were a stayer or you just pop in when the dow red?

i'm here but i don't touch stocks. like Midas i think stocks are disgusting there are many ways to invest and make money. rice fields and subordinate bonds are two of them.

[badge]

Id be impressed if the ASX can get over 4800

[zorro1]

where is every one? gee a couple of good nights and the bears back in the cave. Midas you dont stop just because you getting it wrong again, thought you were a stayer or you just pop in when the dow red?

Zorro, a question for you.

If you look at Lannaberth's chart of the Dow to Gold you will see over time it is inversely correlated to a high degree. You can take that chart back through the 1970s and it would be true (gold went up, stocks were dogs). So it would seem strange (not wrong) that you are bullish of gold and the Dow. I mean the inverse correlation is massive.

So why do you think you are weighted that way (apart from the fact that you think you will be right)?

And I am not trying to make the point that as there has been an inverse correlation in the past you are bound to wrong on one or other. I personally think you will be right on both or wrong both. But I am interested as to why you think there is a positive correlation now.

Abrak

originally purchased gold as a hedge of sorts but since my portfolio is heavily weighted in uranium in the long term I believe both will do well. Also i keep a close eye on sectors and gold has been hot hot hot for quite a few weeks now.

here is a good read for gold bugs http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/oct062009_gold.html

Today gold unleashed those seven league boots again, crashing right through $1,020 resistance and running to a high at $1,043.50. The GOLD PRICE closed up $21.90 at $1,038.60. Nope, that's not a misprint. It's also a clean breakout, so stop worrying and buy.

Also as you can see both can rise together but only in times of extreme recovery. sorry cant post the link to my reasoning cant find it however the markets are supporting the theory, that's all I need to know

[zorro1]

where is every one? gee a couple of good nights and the bears back in the cave. Midas you dont stop just because you getting it wrong again, thought you were a stayer or you just pop in when the dow red?

i'm here but i don't touch stocks. like Midas i think stocks are disgusting there are many ways to invest and make money. rice fields and subordinate bonds are two of them.

come on midas its okay you can sell the rice for what you payed for it... On the street working 24/7 for a few years

(im assuming you were talking tonnage right ) or just cop the loss and buy gold, but you cant now cause you missing the rally theoretically both should rise in value right? doesn't seem to be the case unless of course the markets got it wrong? but they never do

[loong]

Gold has been rising primarily because of the weakening US$

Although the US$ is finding some strength now against the Eurpean currencies, It is still weakening against the yen and of course the Australian$ is doing very well the last few days after the interest rate decision.

If your home currency is AUS$ you won't be benefitting so much from the rise in the price of gold.

In fact an Australian investor should be looking very carefully at any Australian company that trades in US$

Since the Stockmarket low in March, the AU$ has risen some 40% against the US$ - this will impact those companies whose earnings are in US$; seems strange to me that the market ignores that fact.

[teletiger]

Bit of a dive in Europe. What good news caused that?

Regards.

[Abrak]

Also as you can see both can rise together but only in times of extreme recovery. sorry cant post the link to my reasoning cant find it however the markets are supporting the theory, that's all I need to know

Well I agree the markets are showing that they can both rise together. But the positive correlation is reasonably unusual.

Your theory may well be right although it would just seem odd for a non-productive asset to perform well into 'extreme recovery'.

My reasoning would be that the recovery of the two is due to an economic policy of 'trashing cash'. I mean if you trash the value of cash then all non-cash assets will rise in the value of the trashed cash. Now if you want to 'trash crash' what would you do 1) reduce interest rates to zero 2) throw in some quasi QE and 3) run a large budget deficit. On that basis they are doing all the right things.

My point being that when people say assets look expensive it is only relative to a cash value that economic policy is trying to render worthless.

Still, in my view, there is likely to be a consequence. Namely the Fed has exhausted monetary policy (it cant lower rates) and the treasury has exhausted fiscal policy (it cant increase the deficit) so that economic policies were exhausted to prevent collapse. Theoretically they need to reinstall policy traction - namely the ability to BOTH raise and lower rates or increase/decrease spending. So that's the bummer - recovery is essentially capped much above current levels because there will be a policy response to restore economic traction.

Or put another way consider what the consequencies of the bubble would have been like without a very sharp reduction in rates and the deficit. So recreating another bubble based on ZIRP and huge deficits would be utter madness because there could be no policy response.

[Abrak]

BTW I did try to look if gold prices and stocks correlated into a strong recovery but the answer is that you dont get far.

Here are the job (not unemployment) charts for recessions since WW2.

The current data is obviously out by around 100%. Anyways you can see the sharp recoveries and there hasnt been one for 30 years or so. The problem then you find is that there was a gold standard, gold price was manipulated and as a result the price didnt move into a recovery or a downturn. So it is really impossible to know whether gold would have gone up or down in an 'extreme recovery'. Only thing I would note is that the last 'extreme recovery' was in 1958 although the last sort of 'extreme recession' I guess was the 1930s.

[lannarebirth]

I wonder if Bernanke has the balls to do an intermeeting rate change like Greenspan has done. Probably would spook the market, huh?

Edited October 7, 2009 by lannarebirth

[flying]

Gold has been rising primarily because of the weakening US$

Not always...Like today both are up

But of course as the dollar has weakened gold priced in dollars has risen

But FWIW I would not be surprised to see gold rising this month in conjunction with the dollar.

Edited October 7, 2009 by flying

[zorro1]

Look at the futures up 80 hard to believe even for a bull. Still very early but gee it impressive to see

[zorro1]

Jobless rate in surprise turnaroundThursday Oct 08, 2009Australian businesses hired 35,000 workers last month, suggesting the worst of the job losses are behind us as the economy stages a recovery

http://ninemsn.com.au/

[flying]

I know I said for better or worse up or down I am not in the markets since 2000

But.... if things continue I may entertain trying some gold stocks/miners on the TSX in November.

But that is a big IF & I will see what transpires between now & then.

It is mainly sheer boredom that may drive me to it.

Not like anyone is building new homes nor do I see any future plans for them anytime soon.

I'm not going to spec raw land in this market either as I think prices will again fall this year.

[zorro1]

I know I said for better or worse up or down I am not in the markets since 2000

But.... if things continue I may entertain trying some gold stocks/miners on the TSX in November.

But that is a big IF & I will see what transpires between now & then.

It is mainly sheer boredom that may drive me to it.

Not like anyone is building new homes nor do I see any future plans for them anytime soon.

I'm not going to spec raw land in this market either as I think prices will again fall this year.

Why wait? could 1500 by then..It has broken out so now would be buy wouldn't it?

[flying]

Why wait? could 1500 by then..It has broken out so now would be buy wouldn't it?

I am in no rush & feel a pullback/dip is coming. Should be sorted in Nov.

Will start researching now & look at which ones I like.

If they give a go signal in Nov we will see.

Since physical for me is not for trading it will be nice to check this out.

I have a very nice spread sheet of 63 emerging gold mining companies.

[zorro1]

Midas?? come on dude jump the fence you know you want to praying for a depression and 3500 on the dow is bad for the soul me and you could have a group hug and you could join the winners circle, better late than never old boy. Im very concerned about your absence since your prolific postings have stopped. I like rice and would happily join you for a bowl in your 2 tonne shed. I will bring the chung as champers n rice dont relly appeal. Always good to see how the other half live, errrm no offence

[lannarebirth]

With my lack of charting skill & your obvious talent for it....

I would be interested to hear what the charts imply to you.

Just your interpretation or guess at where you think it is headed in the

near term. Not for investment advice but just out of interest.

If your inclined

The triangle breakout has a measured move to 1140-1150 I have no idea if it will get there. The last triangle breakout from 600ish did achieve its measured move, consolidated there and moved higher still.

Things would be looking a little better for the goldbugs if it had closed a little higher yesterday. No decisive close (though marginally higher) from previous weekly closing highs. It seems they're trying to draw both longs and shorts in here. That is often bullish, though sometimes not.

My bias is, because I'm expecting $USD lows in the next few weeks (which may turn out to be all wrong) is that Gold will spike to new highs and come back and test the breakout.. Just a guess.

That's still my view and I'm guessing it's done soon.

[teletiger]

1138 would be a 61.8% gain. 'Monica territory. Dow squeezing up into it's 10200/300 triangle. Last week in October is Flying territory.

Watch out for the "lukewarm fart" responses.

Regards.

[flying]

That's still my view and I'm guessing it's done soon.

I agree but will not be a seller of physical. I see no changes in the

financial sectors.....no real repair nor reform.

But it does make me relaxed about waiting till Nov to enter

the paper market & look for gold stocks/miners I like.

[midas]

Midas?? come on dude jump the fence you know you want to praying for a depression and 3500 on the dow is bad for the soul me and you could have a group hug and you could join the winners circle, better late than never old boy. Im very concerned about your absence since your prolific postings have stopped. I like rice and would happily join you for a bowl in your 2 tonne shed. I will bring the chung as champers n rice dont relly appeal. Always good to see how the other half live, errrm no offence

nothing to say zorro............

The men in black are getting better at steering a steady course sideways - just my view

[zorro1]

men in black? everyone I know is buying while its still low. Analysts like faber have a big influence and only pop up at critical moments on the dow, short for 2 days probably with millions who knows and then short cover whilst the suckers load up the shorts looking for a 4 week plunge. Its so obviouse and the smell of burning shorts is soooooo sweet

[Abrak]

men in black? everyone I know is buying while its still low. Analysts like faber have a big influence and only pop up at critical moments on the dow, short for 2 days probably with millions who knows and then short cover whilst the suckers load up the shorts looking for a 4 week plunge. Its so obviouse and the smell of burning shorts is soooooo sweet

Why keep dreaming up Fabers analysis when you dont even listen to him ( your own words). To basically sum him up it is that he basically bullish on all assets verses a devalued cash.

Recently 02/10

'In general I think dollar-related assets are not terribly expensive.

Dollar-related assets are properties and equities in the US and in countries

which peg their currencies to the US dollar.'

But...

'My principal concern remains that asset markets are quite stretched.'

So he is hedging his bets. Of course he is still very bullish on Thailand and gold but he always is.

And if you believe he move markets I rank that as a conspiracy theory in line with the 'market push it up team' thing.

(BTW he seems to have blocked access to his website so I cant point you to his stuff.)

[midas]

men in black? everyone I know is buying while its still low. Analysts like faber have a big influence and only pop up at critical moments on the dow, short for 2 days probably with millions who knows and then short cover whilst the suckers load up the shorts looking for a 4 week plunge. Its so obviouse and the smell of burning shorts is soooooo sweet

" men in black? " Those were your own words in Post #608 ?

But honestly how do you sleep at night taking these risks ...................................

" Bernanke's gambit is that the devaluation he is engineering will remain controlled. Unfortunately he has managed to produce yet another asset bubble, this time in stocks which (for the S&P) are trading at an outrageous 122 times earnings on the last quarter's (2Q 2009) earnings.

This sort of parabolic pricing move (from the bottom in March of this year), of course, is unlikely to hold up. Consider that while P/Es have reached 60 during bear market "rollovers" in the past, they have never seen valuations like this in the history of the US market. Never mind Treasuries, with the IRX (13 week T-bill) pricing at a vast six (yes, six) basis points of yield as of the close today.

These levels are dramatically and ridiculously unsustainable. The only reason to loan the government money for 13 weeks for a near-literal zero cost (six basis point is a literally six cents per $100 annualized) is because you either believe massive and outrageous deflation is about to strike or you fear that a near-literal end of the world in other financial assets is shortly upon us. Yet this general level of yield on the IRX has persisted since late last year, with the "recent high" reaching a vast 33 basis points in January. "

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/si...,0,0,0,0,0.html

[zorro1]

Im just winding Midas up after he posted this last week. I didn't even read the link, At least faber has a face so comparing to men in black isn't a fair comparison. He is on record with his views right or wrong, Midas is suggesting there is an undercover gang (plunge protection team were his words= men in black )supporting the dow, BIG difference.. Midas is clutching at straws its embarrassing to watch but he insists on posting

"I nabbed this from another thread courtesy of churchill

Anyway zorro this quotes 4 dfiferent people ............can you give anyone ( just one ! ) person

who supports your bizzare outlook that things can keep going up ? in your dreams !!

CAUTION: Crash/Collapse Dead Ahead Say Faber, Rogers, Dent and Celente

http://www.shtfplan.com/marc-faber/caution...elente_10022009"

Edited October 9, 2009 by zorro1

[zorro1]

Midas thanks for the cut n paste, If mr Market takes notice so will I. firmly in an uptrend your way better off flooding the thread when and if we break the trading channel, will have a much stronger affect then. By the way " men in black " is just jargon for any type of manipulation just so you know

Apart from ozzies surprise job figures so too have the Canadians surprised to the upside just heard it on CNBC, heading off downtown bKK have a good weekend all

BREAKING NEWS

as i type on cnbc

Canada adds 30,000 new jobs

equivalent to 300,000 in the usa

One by One out they come