The Stock Market

[midas]

Ouch....Looks like the market is not buying the repair of Greece/Euro Debt Contagion

of course not. it's not the dough made available by the €U for repairs but the willingness of the greek citizens to accept the necessary reforms to repair the situation. where is the acceptance? i don't see any acceptance but Molotov-cocktails thrown at policemen! how long will Papandreou's government last?

:D Your right of course & it did make me smile... That Molotov cocktail remark.

I was just watching a few clips & pics of that action over there.

Rowdy bunch them Greeks eh?

So what is it they want? Repair with no reform? Repair with no increase in taxes to pay for it?

Do they feel like some Americans that they should not be given a bill for that which they *feel* they did not create?

Just curious as I have not really delved into it. Too much to depress us right here at home

Well one Navy officer was on tv yesterday in a very angry state saying he would agree to having his salary

slashed by 50% if the polies also do the same. " We have all have the same mouths to feed " he said.

But of course we know there is as much chance of that happening as Naam joining us in the doom and gloom brigade

[Naam]

But of course we know there is as much chance of that happening as Naam joining us in the doom and gloom brigade

Midas, in october 2008 i received some information which made me think doom&gloom² 25 hours a day (i skipped lunch break) and prepared for a worst case scenario. six weeks later, after spending a couple of days in an ICU, because they sawed open my chest and put new coronary plumbing, i was more relaxed but still very cautious in my approaches. it took another month or so till i made my first financial moves. from april 2009 onwards i was completely relaxed but until this very day i am fully aware that another crisis wave can hit us any time, albeit not as severe or paralysing as the one in 2008. i also agree that there will be some sort of doom&gloom for years to come. next year more than this year and in 2012 more than in 2011. BUT not for those who are prepared!

[midas]

But of course we know there is as much chance of that happening as Naam joining us in the doom and gloom brigade

Midas, in october 2008 i received some information which made me think doom&gloom² 25 hours a day (i skipped lunch break) and prepared for a worst case scenario. six weeks later, after spending a couple of days in an ICU, because they sawed open my chest and put new coronary plumbing, i was more relaxed but still very cautious in my approaches. it took another month or so till i made my first financial moves. from april 2009 onwards i was completely relaxed but until this very day i am fully aware that another crisis wave can hit us any time, albeit not as severe or paralysing as the one in 2008. i also agree that there will be some sort of doom&gloom for years to come. next year more than this year and in 2012 more than in 2011. BUT not for those who are prepared!

i didnt know that Naam

So will you be posting " Alex Lah " style cryptic warnings including dates of course ?

[AlexLah]

Told ya!

Remember?

......

[Parvis]

Watch out for the turn around - potentially tonight. I don't want to have to tell you "Told Ya".

I like your inspiring pictures where can I get a hold of them?

[jcon]

little bit of catching up to do, haven't been posting - was too busy engulfed in the "XXXXXX is rumored dead" thread(s). NOT.

Parvis, I suppose you answered my question sufficiently enough for me. It was kind of a rhetorical question, though - Naam-style.... U know, the type that usually end in a combination of the words "idea" "wealth" "facking" "no." Whatever works, though, horses for courses. Congrats to you. I can't 'predict' when my next bowel movement is going to be, let alone a massive market 7 days in advance.

Naam reminds me of the old hands in the Eurodollar options pit. I never had any 'facking' clue what those guys were doing, I would just see them in the office for the end of day P&L whip-round. But they knew their stuff, inside-out. Anybody who was anybody in the SPX options came from the Eurodollar pit. Of course, I was a little late to the game, so I cut my teeth in "AOL." Looking back, now that's funny. (Back then, AOL was a roaring pit).

Myself - I only knew one game - long gamma, long delta. That's the way I was taught to trade. Trade the position (paying for the gamma, day in, day out) and just wait it out for Vol(atility) to explode. Don't fight the trade, it is what it is. So I kind of side with lanna on his outlook of "price and time." The rest is just noise.

I must admit, though, that nowadays I do not "know" that market - nor do I really want to - my best friend went to Citadel - we sold our seats in 2002 and both of us regret it (check the "last sale" for a seat at the CBOE - insane - talk about selling the low....). Right now, he's still making a mint at Citadel but I get some of the real "bunda" every single day (not just the pictures that Alex posts - good though plarex, this thread needs some stuff like that once in awhile).

Midas - are you like this in real life???? Be happy, man - you only get one go at this life....

Naam - never knew about your condition. Be well

edit: forgot to give props to zorro - good luck with that.

Edited May 5, 2010 by jcon

[AlexLah]

The pictures I post I find from the weirdest places on the net Parvis and with a bit of Google hacking, heh heh.

Hi J the Conman hows life in the states? Nice to see ya back again.

[midas]

Midas - are you like this in real life???? Be happy, man - you only get one go at this life....

I am extremely happy .........but I am also a realist and I dont seem meet many others who are

"You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality."

- Ayn Rand (1905-1982)

[jcon]

Hi plarex,

The only State I'm in right now is the State of Emergency right here in Bangkok!

Came back from the USA some time ago - housekeeping in Thailand for now.

Midas: I'm with you on being a realist. I fully agree with a pragmatic/realistic view of life (with some idealism in there for balance). But to read your posts about the sky about to fall - yet it hasn't (you may say, "yet" - but that's beside the point)... well it's just kind of sad. You were successful in your business, yes? Can't you go out and play some golf???? If my father was in here moaning about things all day I'd shoot myself!

Yeah I know some gents are on here because they are looking after their positions and what not - so they have free time to post...... but..... dam_n......

[Gambles]

I probably only know a fraction of what you know but the reason I follow Wall street is

I am more interested in watching the degree to which people are now prepared to bend the

rules to continue make money rather than the actual movements of the actual markets themselves.

It will be interesting for me to see what if anything comes out of the criminal probe of GS.

I used to trade options in my spare time in Sydney and did very well pursuing the

movements of just one stock in great detail because it as excellent volatility. That was

Newscorp – until Murdoch transferred it over from the Sydney exchange to New York and

then the rules changed totally and I stopped.But we never heard about half the stuff in

those days that is going in the financial world today – mark to fantasy, bailouts,

fraud etc etc. If you are telling me that people can push to the limit and be

downright dishonest but the " markets " just keep "oscillating " as Parvis said,

then I will never understand the new rules and I am not particularly interested in learning them either.

But my question is are you and Parvis saying that if there was for example a pre- emptive strike by

Israel on Iran followed by pandemonium in countries like Pakistan, Syria, Lebanon etc and the

price of oil absolutely went to the moon, that the " oscillations " referred to will still remain very predictably

within pre-determined boundaries ?

Oh make no mistake, people 'bending the rules' is'nt a new phenomenon.

HFT, program trading, algos etc are not bending the rules much; its not on par with insider trading for example, its essentially a way for the broker to 'clip' client orders, something thats been going on since markets began. If you dont like being clipped, become a member of the exchange yourself.

I couldnt comment on Parvis' oscillations.

My point has simply been newsbites bemoaning manipulation are 99% 'noise' and are not worth worrying about. If someone tries to really manipulate a market they'll fail. Infact any gov'mint body that ever tries to move a market fails so often its a buying/selling signal, e.g. BOJ - weaking JPY, SNB - weakening CHF, SEC/FSA - financial share short sale ban etc etc

Is there such a thing as the PPT? Probably. Was the equity markets collapse in '07-'09 'manipulation'? Of course not. Is the equity markets continued rise 'manipulation'? Of course not. Are Chinas official statistics reliable? As reliable as their toys/pet food/toothpaste etc.... Does any of this effect my trading in anyway? Nope.

I probably only know a fraction of what you know but the reason I follow Wall street is

I am more interested in watching the degree to which people are now prepared to bend the

rules to continue make money rather than the actual movements of the actual markets themselves.

It will be interesting for me to see what if anything comes out of the criminal probe of GS.

I used to trade options in my spare time in Sydney and did very well pursuing the

movements of just one stock in great detail because it as excellent volatility. That was

Newscorp – until Murdoch transferred it over from the Sydney exchange to New York and

then the rules changed totally and I stopped.But we never heard about half the stuff in

those days that is going in the financial world today – mark to fantasy, bailouts,

fraud etc etc. If you are telling me that people can push to the limit and be

downright dishonest but the " markets " just keep "oscillating " as Parvis said,

then I will never understand the new rules and I am not particularly interested in learning them either.

But my question is are you and Parvis saying that if there was for example a pre- emptive strike by

Israel on Iran followed by pandemonium in countries like Pakistan, Syria, Lebanon etc and the

price of oil absolutely went to the moon, that the " oscillations " referred to will still remain very predictably

within pre-determined boundaries ?

Oh make no mistake, people 'bending the rules' is'nt a new phenomenon.

HFT, program trading, algos etc are not bending the rules much; its not on par with insider trading for example, its essentially a way for the broker to 'clip' client orders, something thats been going on since markets began. If you dont like being clipped, become a member of the exchange yourself.

I couldnt comment on Parvis' oscillations.

My point has simply been newsbites bemoaning manipulation are 99% 'noise' and are not worth worrying about. If someone tries to really manipulate a market they'll fail. Infact any gov'mint body that ever tries to move a market fails so often its a buying/selling signal, e.g. BOJ - weaking JPY, SNB - weakening CHF, SEC/FSA - financial share short sale ban etc etc

Is there such a thing as the PPT? Probably. Was the equity markets collapse in '07-'09 'manipulation'? Of course not. Is the equity markets continued rise 'manipulation'? Of course not. Are Chinas official statistics reliable? As reliable as their toys/pet food/toothpaste etc.... Does any of this effect my trading in anyway? Nope.

I agree - you can't manipulate a major liquid market; the hardest markets to influence tend to be currencies and certain commodities where the huge traded daily volumes are primarily trading and not investment balances. Even here you can have an impact of course but it tends to be limited in scale and also very short term. The same trade factors will generally play tomorrow on USD:THB irrespective of whether the BoT intervene today or not. Over time consistent intervention can influence commercial activity - the BoT keeps buying Dollars indefinitely and keeping the Baht lower than it should be then Thai exports look cheap and attract orders but of course that creates the Dollar inflows and to some extent cancels itself after a while too. You can maybe brush off the invisible hand for a while but it keeps on coming back....the same ultimately applies to big picture interventions like banning shorts, pegging currencies - eventually pressures build up that force their way out of the system. The difference that I perceive with the PBOC is not so much that they are constantly monitoring the system and releasing the pressures in all kinds of other ways (they are but they're not unique in that) but that they are very clearly focused on jumping off at the point that best suits them. Clearly Thailand doesn't have that kind of clout globally or regionally but maybe sub-regionally it can play a game of outsmarting MY, ID, PH & VN central banks. That could be an extremely profitable game.

A couple of other points -

1) the way that most systemic trades (and I don't pretend to understand Parvis' oscillations) let themselves down is risk management - most ways of making a return focus on just that. The minute that you lose sight of covering your backside, then you're embarking on a path to getting toasted sooner or later whether you're LTCM, Bear Stearns, LBKL, Barings, RBS etc etc

2) I agree with Midas' implication that there's a very thin line between immoral and illegal and we need to make sure that the capital markets retain integrity for them to function. I think that whatever the outcome of the current investigations into GS, Wall Street needs to rediscover the business ethos that it once had - "doing first class business in a first class way" otherwise it ceases to have any meaning. You don't deal unless you can trust. The 19th century was built on the British code of my word is my bond. The 20th was built on the American code of defined contractual obligations to other parties. The 21st century needs a defining basis of doing business - a century built on Asian integrity and values? We sure need something because with Wall Street having lost its moral compass, the world appears to be horribly adrift right now. Scott Campbell made the point last week that the one thing that GS seem to be guilty of is playing the system better than anyone else did; it's not that they did anything differently to anyone else; they just did it moreso. It may have been morally reprehensible but Wall Street stopped dancing to a moral tune years ago. If this was immoral but legal then we can either

i) just give up and accept that this is the way of the world (Yuk!)

ii) find a way to restore morality so people will forego opportunities that are within the law but aren't ethically defensible (Great but how can you get people to do that)

iii) change the law to outlaw this kind of stuff (actually much harder than many people realize - especially in an American rules-based system than a European values based code)

The world changed - in the 1980s it became good to be greedy and the IPO of the old Wall Street partnerships signified this. Also the pre-dominance of the rules-based system made it easier to just look at a deal and ask "is this legal?" and if the answer was yes, then sadly all the morality issues seem to have gone by the by.

Sorry if that's straying too far off topic.

Paul

[lannarebirth]

I probably only know a fraction of what you know but the reason I follow Wall street is

I am more interested in watching the degree to which people are now prepared to bend the

rules to continue make money rather than the actual movements of the actual markets themselves.

It will be interesting for me to see what if anything comes out of the criminal probe of GS.

I used to trade options in my spare time in Sydney and did very well pursuing the

movements of just one stock in great detail because it as excellent volatility. That was

Newscorp – until Murdoch transferred it over from the Sydney exchange to New York and

then the rules changed totally and I stopped.But we never heard about half the stuff in

those days that is going in the financial world today – mark to fantasy, bailouts,

fraud etc etc. If you are telling me that people can push to the limit and be

downright dishonest but the " markets " just keep "oscillating " as Parvis said,

then I will never understand the new rules and I am not particularly interested in learning them either.

But my question is are you and Parvis saying that if there was for example a pre- emptive strike by

Israel on Iran followed by pandemonium in countries like Pakistan, Syria, Lebanon etc and the

price of oil absolutely went to the moon, that the " oscillations " referred to will still remain very predictably

within pre-determined boundaries ?

Oh make no mistake, people 'bending the rules' is'nt a new phenomenon.

HFT, program trading, algos etc are not bending the rules much; its not on par with insider trading for example, its essentially a way for the broker to 'clip' client orders, something thats been going on since markets began. If you dont like being clipped, become a member of the exchange yourself.

I couldnt comment on Parvis' oscillations.

My point has simply been newsbites bemoaning manipulation are 99% 'noise' and are not worth worrying about. If someone tries to really manipulate a market they'll fail. Infact any gov'mint body that ever tries to move a market fails so often its a buying/selling signal, e.g. BOJ - weaking JPY, SNB - weakening CHF, SEC/FSA - financial share short sale ban etc etc

Is there such a thing as the PPT? Probably. Was the equity markets collapse in '07-'09 'manipulation'? Of course not. Is the equity markets continued rise 'manipulation'? Of course not. Are Chinas official statistics reliable? As reliable as their toys/pet food/toothpaste etc.... Does any of this effect my trading in anyway? Nope.

Oh make no mistake, people 'bending the rules' is'nt a new phenomenon.

HFT, program trading, algos etc are not bending the rules much; its not on par with insider trading for example, its essentially a way for the broker to 'clip' client orders, something thats been going on since markets began. If you dont like being clipped, become a member of the exchange yourself.

I couldnt comment on Parvis' oscillations.

My point has simply been newsbites bemoaning manipulation are 99% 'noise' and are not worth worrying about. If someone tries to really manipulate a market they'll fail. Infact any gov'mint body that ever tries to move a market fails so often its a buying/selling signal, e.g. BOJ - weaking JPY, SNB - weakening CHF, SEC/FSA - financial share short sale ban etc etc

Is there such a thing as the PPT? Probably. Was the equity markets collapse in '07-'09 'manipulation'? Of course not. Is the equity markets continued rise 'manipulation'? Of course not. Are Chinas official statistics reliable? As reliable as their toys/pet food/toothpaste etc.... Does any of this effect my trading in anyway? Nope.

I agree - you can't manipulate a major liquid market; the hardest markets to influence tend to be currencies and certain commodities where the huge traded daily volumes are primarily trading and not investment balances. Even here you can have an impact of course but it tends to be limited in scale and also very short term. The same trade factors will generally play tomorrow on USD:THB irrespective of whether the BoT intervene today or not. Over time consistent intervention can influence commercial activity - the BoT keeps buying Dollars indefinitely and keeping the Baht lower than it should be then Thai exports look cheap and attract orders but of course that creates the Dollar inflows and to some extent cancels itself after a while too. You can maybe brush off the invisible hand for a while but it keeps on coming back....the same ultimately applies to big picture interventions like banning shorts, pegging currencies - eventually pressures build up that force their way out of the system. The difference that I perceive with the PBOC is not so much that they are constantly monitoring the system and releasing the pressures in all kinds of other ways (they are but they're not unique in that) but that they are very clearly focused on jumping off at the point that best suits them. Clearly Thailand doesn't have that kind of clout globally or regionally but maybe sub-regionally it can play a game of outsmarting MY, ID, PH & VN central banks. That could be an extremely profitable game.

A couple of other points -

1) the way that most systemic trades (and I don't pretend to understand Parvis' oscillations) let themselves down is risk management - most ways of making a return focus on just that. The minute that you lose sight of covering your backside, then you're embarking on a path to getting toasted sooner or later whether you're LTCM, Bear Stearns, LBKL, Barings, RBS etc etc

2) I agree with Midas' implication that there's a very thin line between immoral and illegal and we need to make sure that the capital markets retain integrity for them to function. I think that whatever the outcome of the current investigations into GS, Wall Street needs to rediscover the business ethos that it once had - "doing first class business in a first class way" otherwise it ceases to have any meaning. You don't deal unless you can trust. The 19th century was built on the British code of my word is my bond. The 20th was built on the American code of defined contractual obligations to other parties. The 21st century needs a defining basis of doing business - a century built on Asian integrity and values? We sure need something because with Wall Street having lost its moral compass, the world appears to be horribly adrift right now. Scott Campbell made the point last week that the one thing that GS seem to be guilty of is playing the system better than anyone else did; it's not that they did anything differently to anyone else; they just did it moreso. It may have been morally reprehensible but Wall Street stopped dancing to a moral tune years ago. If this was immoral but legal then we can either

i) just give up and accept that this is the way of the world (Yuk!)

ii) find a way to restore morality so people will forego opportunities that are within the law but aren't ethically defensible (Great but how can you get people to do that)

iii) change the law to outlaw this kind of stuff (actually much harder than many people realize - especially in an American rules-based system than a European values based code)

The world changed - in the 1980s it became good to be greedy and the IPO of the old Wall Street partnerships signified this. Also the pre-dominance of the rules-based system made it easier to just look at a deal and ask "is this legal?" and if the answer was yes, then sadly all the morality issues seem to have gone by the by.

Sorry if that's straying too far off topic.

Paul

If you've got enough capital you absolutely can manipulate markets, long enough to profit from it anyway. What are S&P futures buy programs at resistance, but sell stop runs to sell into? ETF's 2x 3x absolutely made for manipulating markets and fleecing retail buyers. Press releases, pro forma earnings, endless "one time charges" same same same. That said, badge is right, its got nothing to do with how you trade (though I often bet with the manipulators, but that''s what the T/A shows anyway).

[midas]

Hi plarex,

The only State I'm in right now is the State of Emergency right here in Bangkok!

Came back from the USA some time ago - housekeeping in Thailand for now.

Midas: I'm with you on being a realist. I fully agree with a pragmatic/realistic view of life (with some idealism in there for balance). But to read your posts about the sky about to fall - yet it hasn't (you may say, "yet" - but that's beside the point)... well it's just kind of sad. You were successful in your business, yes? Can't you go out and play some golf???? If my father was in here moaning about things all day I'd shoot myself!

Yeah I know some gents are on here because they are looking after their positions and what not - so they have free time to post...... but..... dam_n......

You will find ( and Naam will concur much to his annoyance ) the majority of my posts are links to articles from other sources - so you could say the authors of those articles and people like Gerald Celente and Mark Faber who I follow in depth are the sad ones ? Why do I post the link then , because I try to generate discussion PLUS where else can I vent my frustration ? Its a substitute for a therapist and its far far better than internalising it all and I wouldn’t dream of talking about these things in a bar or such setting.

The sky is NOT about to fall in but I am very sad about watching USA where I worked for 2 years in 1980’s and I had an incredibly happy time, falling apart. And its time to let nature run its course instead of this ridiculous “ extend and pretend “ wherever you look . then we can look forward to the new day.

I hate golf but I have many outdoor and indoor activities

[AlexLah]

How did I know Midas?

Or should the question be: Why?

[lannarebirth]

How did I know Midas?

Or should the question be: Why?

Well, it can't be for Greenspan, Rubin and Summers or those would be Star of David grave markers. How about the 3 wise men?

[midas]

there's a very thin line between immoral and illegal and we need to make sure that the capital markets retain integrity for them to function. I think that whatever the outcome of the current investigations into GS, Wall Street needs to rediscover the business ethos that it once had - "doing first class business in a first class way" otherwise it ceases to have any meaning. You don't deal unless you can trust. The 19th century was built on the British code of my word is my bond. The 20th was built on the American code of defined contractual obligations to other parties. The 21st century needs a defining basis of doing business - a century built on Asian integrity and values? We sure need something because with Wall Street having lost its moral compass, the world appears to be horribly adrift right now. Scott Campbell made the point last week that the one thing that GS seem to be guilty of is playing the system better than anyone else did; it's not that they did anything differently to anyone else; they just did it moreso. It may have been morally reprehensible but Wall Street stopped dancing to a moral tune years ago. If this was immoral but legal then we can either

i) just give up and accept that this is the way of the world (Yuk!)

ii) find a way to restore morality so people will forego opportunities that are within the law but aren't ethically defensible (Great but how can you get people to do that)

iii) change the law to outlaw this kind of stuff (actually much harder than many people realize - especially in an American rules-based system than a European values based code)

But Paul there is another dimension to this ( at least in USA anyway ) which is equally bad for their future and is both illegal and immoral and that is a growing perception that its no longer important to honour a written contract . Look at the GM bondholders, look at how many US citizens are being allowed with the governments blessing to squat in their own home or are being actively encouraged by companies to walk away from mortgages and credit card debt. There are even companies that have web pages and have been set up specifically for the purpose of giving advice on how to walk away. Its an an industry for Christ's sake - companies advertising how to break you contract. They have lost the plot. This is why the so called green shoots and " V " shaped recovery so often talked about in this thread up until recently seemed so sureal. I would expect these things in a banana republic but not the biggest economy in the world ?

[midas]

How did I know Midas?

Or should the question be: Why?

Well, it can't be for Greenspan, Rubin and Summers or those would be Star of David grave markers. How about the 3 wise men?

I would nomianate Bernanke, Blakfein and Geithner

[Naam]

How did I know Midas?

Or should the question be: Why?

Well, it can't be for Greenspan, Rubin and Summers or those would be Star of David grave markers. How about the 3 wise men?

I would nomianate Bernanke, Blakfein and Geithner

= three more Stars of David

[AlexLah]

That is interesting Jcon, let's have a drink someday once the "State" is over.

You guy's forgot Paulson, he was the guy screaming all hel_l would brake loose. Proposed bail out bill 789 Billion......and indeed as I said 7 ate 9.

Muhaaa haaaa haaaaaaa.......

Anyway, how is the Dow doing today?

[Gambles]

there's a very thin line between immoral and illegal and we need to make sure that the capital markets retain integrity for them to function. I think that whatever the outcome of the current investigations into GS, Wall Street needs to rediscover the business ethos that it once had - "doing first class business in a first class way" otherwise it ceases to have any meaning. You don't deal unless you can trust. The 19th century was built on the British code of my word is my bond. The 20th was built on the American code of defined contractual obligations to other parties. The 21st century needs a defining basis of doing business - a century built on Asian integrity and values? We sure need something because with Wall Street having lost its moral compass, the world appears to be horribly adrift right now. Scott Campbell made the point last week that the one thing that GS seem to be guilty of is playing the system better than anyone else did; it's not that they did anything differently to anyone else; they just did it moreso. It may have been morally reprehensible but Wall Street stopped dancing to a moral tune years ago. If this was immoral but legal then we can either

i) just give up and accept that this is the way of the world (Yuk!)

ii) find a way to restore morality so people will forego opportunities that are within the law but aren't ethically defensible (Great but how can you get people to do that)

iii) change the law to outlaw this kind of stuff (actually much harder than many people realize - especially in an American rules-based system than a European values based code)

But Paul there is another dimension to this ( at least in USA anyway ) which is equally bad for their future and is both illegal and immoral and that is a growing perception that its no longer important to honour a written contract . Look at the GM bondholders, look at how many US citizens are being allowed with the governments blessing to squat in their own home or are being actively encouraged by companies to walk away from mortgages and credit card debt. There are even companies that have web pages and have been set up specifically for the purpose of giving advice on how to walk away. Its an an industry for Christ's sake - companies advertising how to break you contract. They have lost the plot. This is why the so called green shoots and " V " shaped recovery so often talked about in this thread up until recently seemed so sureal. I would expect these things in a banana republic but not the biggest economy in the world ?

Unfortunately I can only agree which is why I was saying that we really need a new order because now we're really rudderless

Sadly I see Asia as the best hope for a path for 21st century guidance because the west seems to have abandoned its moral anchor

[Naam]

So will you be posting " Alex Lah " style cryptic warnings including dates of course ?

no, i will not Midas. unlike Alex i am not a masochist who seems to enjoy being ridiculed.

[AlexLah]

Dear Naam, you seem to have forgotten. It is OK, You are old and seem to have some problem remembering.

[midas]

How did I know Midas?

Or should the question be: Why?

Well, it can't be for Greenspan, Rubin and Summers or those would be Star of David grave markers. How about the 3 wise men?

I would nomianate Bernanke, Blakfein and Geithner

= three more Stars of David

= picture below yes / no ?

Oh my god we have well truly hijacked this thread. we have " migrated " from the other one

Ah well I don’t think anyone will be posting anything more about a “ v “ shaped recovery for a while

[AlexLah]

Check rule 153.....

[Naam]

Dear Naam, you seem to have forgotten. It is OK, You are old and seem to have some problem remembering.

i prefer to be old and well-off than young, dumb and poor like you Alex

[zorro1]

Anyone else trading the bounces? sit a few cents under the dump on open usually good for a quick trade just about any stock but nimble fingers required or be prepared to take a loss. But then again Day traders are able to take losses thats why only a handful succeed (long way to go but getting hang of it). Unless we are heading straight for 6500 it looks a bit oversold from here so back into the fire s/term

[badge]

I agree - you can't manipulate a major liquid market; the hardest markets to influence tend to be currencies and certain commodities where the huge traded daily volumes are primarily trading and not investment balances. Even here you can have an impact of course but it tends to be limited in scale and also very short term. The same trade factors will generally play tomorrow on USD:THB irrespective of whether the BoT intervene today or not. Over time consistent intervention can influence commercial activity - the BoT keeps buying Dollars indefinitely and keeping the Baht lower than it should be then Thai exports look cheap and attract orders but of course that creates the Dollar inflows and to some extent cancels itself after a while too. You can maybe brush off the invisible hand for a while but it keeps on coming back....the same ultimately applies to big picture interventions like banning shorts, pegging currencies - eventually pressures build up that force their way out of the system. The difference that I perceive with the PBOC is not so much that they are constantly monitoring the system and releasing the pressures in all kinds of other ways (they are but they're not unique in that) but that they are very clearly focused on jumping off at the point that best suits them. Clearly Thailand doesn't have that kind of clout globally or regionally but maybe sub-regionally it can play a game of outsmarting MY, ID, PH & VN central banks. That could be an extremely profitable game.

A couple of other points -

1) the way that most systemic trades (and I don't pretend to understand Parvis' oscillations) let themselves down is risk management - most ways of making a return focus on just that. The minute that you lose sight of covering your backside, then you're embarking on a path to getting toasted sooner or later whether you're LTCM, Bear Stearns, LBKL, Barings, RBS etc etc

2) I agree with Midas' implication that there's a very thin line between immoral and illegal and we need to make sure that the capital markets retain integrity for them to function. I think that whatever the outcome of the current investigations into GS, Wall Street needs to rediscover the business ethos that it once had - "doing first class business in a first class way" otherwise it ceases to have any meaning. You don't deal unless you can trust. The 19th century was built on the British code of my word is my bond. The 20th was built on the American code of defined contractual obligations to other parties. The 21st century needs a defining basis of doing business - a century built on Asian integrity and values? We sure need something because with Wall Street having lost its moral compass, the world appears to be horribly adrift right now. Scott Campbell made the point last week that the one thing that GS seem to be guilty of is playing the system better than anyone else did; it's not that they did anything differently to anyone else; they just did it moreso. It may have been morally reprehensible but Wall Street stopped dancing to a moral tune years ago. If this was immoral but legal then we can either

i) just give up and accept that this is the way of the world (Yuk!)

ii) find a way to restore morality so people will forego opportunities that are within the law but aren't ethically defensible (Great but how can you get people to do that)

iii) change the law to outlaw this kind of stuff (actually much harder than many people realize - especially in an American rules-based system than a European values based code)

The world changed - in the 1980s it became good to be greedy and the IPO of the old Wall Street partnerships signified this. Also the pre-dominance of the rules-based system made it easier to just look at a deal and ask "is this legal?" and if the answer was yes, then sadly all the morality issues seem to have gone by the by.

Sorry if that's straying too far off topic.

Paul

I agree too. I would however suggest Commodity markets would be rather simple to manipulate if that was your MO. And I dont think gov'mint meddling is a contra-indicator in anything but freely tradable markets, like the ones mentioned.

For PBOC or BOT to intervene to manage their currencies exchange rate is business as usual; they are not open and free 'markets'.

[lannarebirth]

Anyone else trading the bounces? sit a few cents under the dump on open usually good for a quick trade just about any stock but nimble fingers required or be prepared to take a loss. But then again Day traders are able to take losses thats why only a handful succeed (long way to go but getting hang of it). Unless we are heading straight for 6500 it looks a bit oversold from here so back into the fire s/term

I think almost everyone is playing the bounces. That's why its going lower.

[lannarebirth]

Anyone else trading the bounces? sit a few cents under the dump on open usually good for a quick trade just about any stock but nimble fingers required or be prepared to take a loss. But then again Day traders are able to take losses thats why only a handful succeed (long way to go but getting hang of it). Unless we are heading straight for 6500 it looks a bit oversold from here so back into the fire s/term

I think almost everyone is playing the bounces. That's why its going lower.

I'm not one to spike the footbal, but, ka-ching!!!

[flying]

PPT clean up ailse 6

Ah I see your on it....Good boys

Impressive too.... 10,200 to 9800 & back to 10200 in what 4 minutes?

Edited May 6, 2010 by flying

[Gambles]

For PBOC or BOT to intervene to manage their currencies exchange rate is business as usual; they are not open and free 'markets'.

Agreed