Investment Ideas

[churchill]

I have been invested in Gold but it seems to have stalled and I cannot see it going higher until we see inflation feeding through or a problem with the $ . Markets may correct , which means the $ may go up in the short term but I think $ is on a longterm downward path .

I see all commodities as a hedge against inflation and the $ - and agricultural commodities as a good bet even if there is no inflation with the prospect of El Nino effecting supplies . Oil may even be as good a bet as gold if inflation does appear ? it is around $70 now to double to $140 - not out of the question . Gold to double from here getting on for $2000 which is a riskier bet at this time , in my view .

If there is a market crash all markets will fall but I have been looking at India , Indonesia and Russia -

any views on any specialist funds .

Edited August 21, 2009 by churchill

[PatinBKk]

££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££..................although

, you know what a long term investment is....a short term investment gone wrong

[wordchild]

i would be in the camp that feel shares in many markets,incl Thailand, are still cheap. frankly i think you could do a lot worse( eg russia )than look at the Thai stock market. however much of the good value is outside the biggest cap stocks which in Thailand means away from the big oil co PTT and the banks,so funds may not be the answer do the work , find a few stocks you like ,it can be very rewarding.

[loverboy44]

Stocks at the moment are pretty risky IMO.

I prefer country securities and corporate bonds. Everyone has a big hunger for cash right now, so the interest rates are pretty high.

[Abrak]

I have been invested in Gold but it seems to have stalled and I cannot see it going higher until we see inflation feeding through or a problem with the $ . Markets may correct , which means the $ may go up in the short term but I think $ is on a longterm downward path .

I see all commodities as a hedge against inflation and the $ - and agricultural commodities as a good bet even if there is no inflation with the prospect of El Nino effecting supplies . Oil may even be as good a bet as gold if inflation does appear ? it is around $70 now to double to $140 - not out of the question . Gold to double from here getting on for $2000 which is a riskier bet at this time , in my view .

If there is a market crash all markets will fall but I have been looking at India , Indonesia and Russia -

any views on any specialist funds .

You know I am kind of with Churchill here (which if he doesnt take too much offense) could be read as it is bloody difficult to know where you are going to make money.

The inflation bet seems off and inflation is priced so lowly into the markets (1.7% over 10 years) that you dont want to bet on that. The commodity cycle looks to be dodgy/over. Equities have had their bounce although there might be a few selected plays. The dollar is due for a bounce but a lousy long term play, gold the opposite.

My guess is there is still money to be made in high yielding corporate bonds (but I dont understand them). I am buying yield in equities but not with much conviction.

[Naam]

i still believe in subordinated corporate bonds. of course the times when you could double or triple your investment within a few weeks (some months ago) are gone. but i consider capital gains of 10-15% plus accrued within a few weeks as not too bad. however, even these capital gains might very soon be a thing of the past and one cashes in interest only (which is also not too bad ).

[joe33]

The current consensus of most economic experts is that the $ (which most world commodities are priced in) will continue to go lower due to the huge us debt which needs to be funded(over the next few years till the us economy recovers, if it ever does) by selling treasury bonds(which mostly the Chinese and Japanese governments are more and more reluctent to purchase due to low interest rates) so who really knows which way to go in making new investments, or making new ones. Most commodity stocks have had a big appreciation run over the past several months and if one wants to "insure" these they can always go the options route(buy/sell puts or even calls). If the $ interest rates go due to inflation up then the high yield corporate bonds will normally fall in price as treasury bonds will begin to compete more favorably. Oil stocks(not natural gas at this time) seem attractive at to me at this time as a hedge against inflation and the declining dollar. One could always play the currency exchange futures/options route if you know the ropes. All I know is if one whould have played almost the currencies of most developed countries against the $ a few months ago they would have done OK. Afraid I'm not much help here but just my take on a coupla of things. Good luck. Regards, Joe

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

It seems like we might experience deflation before the inflation hits. So I wonder if there is something that will do well in either inflation or deflation? If there is deflation it could conceivable go on for years like it has done in Japan.

[cmsally]

This topic pretty much ties in with what I have been reading here:

Moneyweek

Unfortunately the article that tells you how to beat the bank's saving rate is locked

Anyone have subscription

On the main page it mentions lithium as a new energy source, so good to watch and also

mentions ThaiBev as a stock to watch. Maybe time for a dabble in those.

Anyone know what kind of dividend ThaiBev is paying?

[lannarebirth]

This topic pretty much ties in with what I have been reading here:

Moneyweek

Unfortunately the article that tells you how to beat the bank's saving rate is locked

Anyone have subscription

On the main page it mentions lithium as a new energy source, so good to watch and also

mentions ThaiBev as a stock to watch. Maybe time for a dabble in those.

Anyone know what kind of dividend ThaiBev is paying?

5.84%

http://thaibev.listedcompany.com/stock_fundamentals.html