Is The Us$ Destined To Collapse?

[badge]

DXY has support at 75.6, 74.5 and 74

EURUSD has res at .4905 and .5015, and USDCHF supp at .0120 and .0050

USDCHF bounced 100+ pips from .0117, EURUSD hasnt made it to .5015, likewise DXY hasnt made it to 74.5 or 74.0(low was around 75.20).

DXY 74.5 is ideal

[sokal]

Notional derivative amounts are'nt particularly relevant.

How do you prove that ?

The reason Lehman caused so much turmoil was because its derivative book went down.

I dont have the inclination to explain, and have no need to prove it.

Its difficult to know quite how simplistic your being with your second statement.

Yes I am sure you where shocked to see the notional derivative numbers too but some anchor on CNBS like Steve Liesman told you that derivatives don't matter.

Rick Santelli, who is the only guy with a brain on CNBS would disagree.

[henryalleman]

p.s. did you know we have a value added tax of 19% on ALL goods and services (only a few with a 50% exemption) and talk is to increase it to 21 or even 23%?

Hence your living where you are

Same will occur elsewhere when taxation beats those with means into exit. I have no doubt that if they wish to turn Amerika into a poverty stricken nation they have the means. But it will always be the middle & lower classes that suffer. The rest will leave or find one of the hundred ways to skin the cat.

my taxes in Germany (assuming that i'd be stupid enough and declare each and every penny of income) would amount to more than double the dough i spend in Thailand for an extremely comfortable lifestyle. the "saved" taxes on this year's capital gains are covering 11 years of "Thai expenditure". look at the size of the two flags!

As a German you are still a very lucky fellow. In belgium you have to work till 15 october for the government, from 16 october on, you can keep your money for yourself.

[ThailandLovr]

<snip>In belgium you have to work till 15 october for the government, from 16 october on, you can keep your money for yourself.

Assuming you are not joking, then please I beg ask a simple question: Why no revolt?

Edited October 21, 2009 by ThailandLovr

[flying]

<snip>In belgium you have to work till 15 october for the government, from 16 october on, you can keep your money for yourself.

Assuming you are not joking, then please I beg ask a simple question: Why no revolt?

I have no idea but my guess would be.......

Same as any country that does such taxation.

An underground economy springs up & can average 20% or more of the legal<sic> GDP

Edited October 21, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

As a German you are still a very lucky fellow. In belgium you have to work till 15 october for the government, from 16 october on, you can keep your money for yourself.

Henry, the highest income tax bracket in Belgium is 50%. in Germany it is 43+4.3+2.15 = 49.45%, virtually no difference.

[Naam]

<snip>In belgium you have to work till 15 october for the government, from 16 october on, you can keep your money for yourself.

Assuming you are not joking, then please I beg ask a simple question: Why no revolt?

I have no idea but my guess would be.......

Same as any country that does such taxation. An underground economy springs up & can average 20% or more of the legal<sic> GDP

an underground economy does not lower the taxes of an employee who's taxes are deducted when his salary is paid.

[flying]

an underground economy does not lower the taxes of an employee who's taxes are deducted when his salary is paid.

True but I would guess like any economy there are also jobs.

Many work under the table even in the GNOE

[ThailandLovr]

As a German you are still a very lucky fellow. In belgium you have to work till 15 october for the government, from 16 october on, you can keep your money for yourself.

Henry, the highest income tax bracket in Belgium is 50%. in Germany it is 43+4.3+2.15 = 49.45%, virtually no difference.

Assuming (hoping) Henry did not grab this statement from nowhere, he was probably summing up all money making it to the government in one way or another (VAT, gasoline taxes, real estate, etc.).

I'm trying to find the source for something I read some time ago whereby all this was included and the total percentage was downright scary.

[henryalleman]

<snip>In belgium you have to work till 15 october for the government, from 16 october on, you can keep your money for yourself.

Assuming you are not joking, then please I beg ask a simple question: Why no revolt?

sadly enough its not a joke, and why there is no revolt? I don't understand it also.

[henryalleman]

As a German you are still a very lucky fellow. In belgium you have to work till 15 october for the government, from 16 october on, you can keep your money for yourself.

Henry, the highest income tax bracket in Belgium is 50%. in Germany it is 43+4.3+2.15 = 49.45%, virtually no difference.

there is a difference, we have an VAT of 21%, even on food, In France its 6% on mineral water in belgium 21 %, also hidden taxes are higher. Don't forget that we also have to pay 13.07 % social security on our salary, and we have an additionel 2% solidarity tax if you earn more than 1900 Euro bruto salary.

the total labour costs are 12% higher than in germany.

In general we have one of the highest labour costs in the EU and one of the lowest netto salaries.

Why do you think I retire in Thailand.

[henryalleman]

As a German you are still a very lucky fellow. In belgium you have to work till 15 october for the government, from 16 october on, you can keep your money for yourself.

Henry, the highest income tax bracket in Belgium is 50%. in Germany it is 43+4.3+2.15 = 49.45%, virtually no difference.

Assuming (hoping) Henry did not grab this statement from nowhere, he was probably summing up all money making it to the government in one way or another (VAT, gasoline taxes, real estate, etc.).

I'm trying to find the source for something I read some time ago whereby all this was included and the total percentage was downright scary.

Indeed I include all kind of taxes the bandit government taking out of our pockets.

[Naam]

Indeed I include all kind of taxes the bandit government taking out of our pockets.

then a comparison is not possible without an indepth research. needless to say that Germans pay social security and health insurance. but these are not taxes as the premiums for any insurance can't be called taxes (except in the Greatest Nation on Earth™).

what i know for sure is that as a none working individual -living on my own means- my income tax in Belgium would be less than half than the one in Germany. the problem is that our "bandit" governments take from the pockets of hard working citizens and give it (not in all but in most cases) to lazy bastards.

[flying]

the problem is that our "bandit" governments take from the pockets of hard working citizens and give it (not in all but in most cases) to lazy bastards.

[henryalleman]

Indeed I include all kind of taxes the bandit government taking out of our pockets.

then a comparison is not possible without an indepth research. needless to say that Germans pay social security and health insurance. but these are not taxes as the premiums for any insurance can't be called taxes (except in the Greatest Nation on Earth™).

what i know for sure is that as a none working individual -living on my own means- my income tax in Belgium would be less than half than the one in Germany. the problem is that our "bandit" governments take from the pockets of hard working citizens and give it (not in all but in most cases) to lazy bastards.

If you are saying that taxes on capital are much lower than in Germany you are 100 % correct. The same go's for Holland. That's why many wealthy Germans and Dutch move just across the border into Belgium. In some small villages the percentage go's up to 40% Dutch or German people. Native people are not able to by land anymore to build or buy house due to the rocketing real estate prices in that areas.

In Belgium its the salary man (white or blue color) who who are sucked dry by taxes, for instance holliday money, Cristmass bonusses and OT are taxed away by 65 %. I can proof that with my salary slips from the time I wass still active.

The lucky ones are the ones who are living of social security, fugitives and people living from their capital or investments.

[lannarebirth]

That's one:

[flying]

That's one:

Always interested in your tech view......One what?

One candle broke the downtrend?

Thanks

[lannarebirth]

That's one:

Always interested in your tech view......One what?

One candle broke the downtrend?

Thanks

One level of resistance the $USD managed to close above. Heretofore, in this most recent downtrend, it has managed to close above none. Every journey starts with a single step and IF the dollar is to reverse in any way you could say it has taken one. It could take two steps backwards later in the week but it is what it is, for now. When the dollar bottomed in March '08 it had MUCH more resistance to overcome than it does now and it made an IT significant move. If one cares about such things I'm only noting that it's time to pay attention.

[flying]

One level of resistance the $USD managed to close above. Heretofore, in this most recent downtrend, it has managed to close above none. Every journey starts with a single step and IF the dollar is to reverse in any way you could say it has taken one. It could take two steps backwards later in the week but it is what it is, for now. When the dollar bottomed in March '08 it had MUCH more resistance to overcome than it does now and it made an IT significant move. If one cares about such things I'm only noting that it's time to pay attention.

Thanks always interesting

[lannarebirth]

We'll see:

[badge]

DXY has support at 75.6, 74.5 and 74

Well I still have DXY supp at 75.6(pretty much where it is right now), then 74.5 and 74.

EURUSD has res at .4905 and .5015, and USDCHF supp at .0120 and .0050

EURUSD high was .5062, USDCHF low was .0034.

They have both reversed 50 and 15 pips respectively from my cited levels, and have since traveled 300 and 200 pips respectively. Thus far

Not as accurate as usual(e.g citing on Global Financial Markets thread EURUSD resistance at .4850, which ushered in a 400pip reversal, 6 months beforehand), but I dont recall seeing any other fortune telling worth mentioning? Other than Captin Ark, which is more a punchline

DXY reversing has made life hard for Oil, Copper, AU & AG, equities etc

Bon Chance gentlemen.

[Abrak]

I don't really understand currencies. But I do believe it is a mistake at present to associate the dollars fundamentals with the us. The us may have a c/a deficit but China and Thailand for that matter have large surpluses. it is easy to forecast a 30% depreciation in the dollar but at the same time you are forecasting a 30% depreciation in the yuan. The dollar is structurally overvalued. Do dollar currencies have a deficit or a surplus?

Personally I see the peg as mutually destructive and that it will go, China will subsidize lost growth through money creation of forex reserves of other countries and the lack of need to subsidize the us. The dollar will collapse and that will be the key to reflation of both the us and world economy.

[flying]

The dollar will collapse and that will be the key to reflation of both the us and world economy.

You are starting to sound Gold positive jk

Appropriate on the anniversary eve of the Crash of 29

Here is a interesting quote which makes the often used "if you bought Gold in 1980"

quote used by my Klingon buddy seem tame.

Anyone who bought stocks in mid-1929 and held onto them saw most of his or her adult life pass by before getting back to even.

Edited October 28, 2009 by flying

[Abrak]

The dollar will collapse and that will be the key to reflation of both the us and world economy.

You are starting to sound Gold positive jk

Appropriate on the anniversary eve of the Crash of 29

Here is a interesting quote which makes the often used "if you bought Gold in 1980"

quote used by my Klingon buddy seem tame.

Anyone who bought stocks in mid-1929 and held onto them saw most of his or her adult life pass by before getting back to even.

to be honest flying I don't have many views. It just seems to me that the conscencus that the dollar must go down when it is pegged to the yuan oil rich countries and competiors to China like Thailand might be wrong. The dollar by itself is probably 40% overvalued.

Btw noone really agrees with this idea of a yuan float - most economists I know believe the Chinese economy is too weak to sustain a float.

As for gold I just don't understand it...

[flying]

to be honest flying I don't have many views. It just seems to me that the consensus that the dollar must go down when it is pegged to the yuan oil rich countries and competitors to China like Thailand might be wrong. The dollar by itself is probably 40% overvalued.

Btw noone really agrees with this idea of a yuan float - most economists I know believe the Chinese economy is too weak to sustain a float.

As for gold I just don't understand it...

Personally my view is just that.......a view based on what I see & hear in the country I presently reside 10 out of 12 months a year.

I do not really have an opinion based on oil, pegs, other currencies etc.

My view tells me that the US has acted irresponsibly for a long time now.

Their answer to print more & more fiat in ever increasing insane amounts logically must have a reaction. The fact that they now one way or another....openly or secretly through banks buy their own markers can only go on for so long.

So I agree that the dollar is very much so overvalued.

I will not be surprised to see it in the low 60's next year. I have no idea nor answers for what would be the cure other than to let it collapse & default on their outstanding debts bringing with it the appropriate responses from the rest of the world. At least at that point a true recovery could begin....granted if it is not based on the same faulty policies.

As for gold & silver the more I see of the above the better I feel about it.

For me it does in fact give a feeling of secure reality. In a sense a don't pass bet

Seeing that I am now 50% vested minus one year expenses... of course I could lose one way or the other.

But for me that is still 50% better than going all in on the pass line for one or the other.

Edited October 28, 2009 by flying

[loverboy44]

Flying, i agree with very much what you're saying.

But i think you are too pessimistic.

If you see that that the US is still consuming 1/3 of the world economy and China 7% of it we have to think about the real relations!

[flying]

Flying, i agree with very much what you're saying.

But i think you are too pessimistic.

If you see that that the US is still consuming 1/3 of the world economy and China 7% of it we have to think about the real relations!

But I dont reside in China

I only see what I see here & the results.

If I lived in China & saw the same I would react the same & go 50/50 less one year expenses. Also although I do not live in China I have said before I think they will have the easier time ultimately.

It is easy for farmers & folks who have of lived a life of frugality to remain in a life they know. It will not be as easy for a country that has lived a life of excess consumption.... on credit to suddenly find themselves in a life they are ill prepared for.

Or if by relations you mean, in spite of our promises to pay..... China will willingly continue to offer goods for IOU's that remains to be seen &

how they will react to being repaid those IOU's in devalued dollars.

Edited October 28, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

Flying, i agree with very much what you're saying. But i think you are too pessimistic. If you see that that the US is still consuming 1/3 of the world economy and China 7% of it we have to think about the real relations!

But I dont reside in China

why not? state your reasons Flying!

[lannarebirth]

That's two, and the first four day run in the past six months:

It's always something:

[flying]

That's two, and the first four day run in the past six months:

It's always something:

I imagine the US Govt are pretty happy with this coinciding with their

record setting 123 Billion debt sale this week.

Edited October 29, 2009 by flying