Marc Faber: Take Your Money Out Of Stocks Now

[LaoPo]

I think people have been referring to the use of debt to invest in houses and businesses in China The government surplus doesn't prevent individuals from overpaying or levering too much. I don't have an opinion, but that's my understanding of what some besides Marc Faber have been saying.

I don't think so since the government has been tightening the rules for buying a first home in the past few months and even more strict in the past few weeks.

Mortgages always had to have a down payment already of at least, between 15-20% if not higher depending on the income.

They're also cracking down on present speculators in the realty sector now.

All in all they're on top of it, trying to prevent overheating.

LaoPo

Whatever way you want to look at it, it is still using leverage (borrowed) money to buy into property. The potential for a correction is still there.

And it is a little complacent to think that "they're" on top of it. That just the type of congratulatory praise that was dished out to the world's greatest central banker Al Greenspan, before runaway bank mortgage lending brought the stack of cards down.

Well, what I was trying to say in my previous post is that they are indeed on top of it, trying to cope with the immense challenges they have to deal with in the largest populated country in the world.

It is very easy to comment, whether positive or negative but the latter is quite normal here on TV if it comes to China.

But, writing is easy...to get the job done something else and the article below, from today, is precisely as I wrote in my posts:

China tries to curb lending and avoid overheating

SHANGHAI/BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese authorities ordered some big banks to curb lending for the rest of January, intensifying their efforts to prevent the world's third-largest economy from overheating.

here: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60J0...usbeforethebell

IF China wouldn't do what they're doing now (and cut down on lending) the financial system would indeed collapse. The results of all this was the unexpected high success of the stimulus plans the government set in place last year to promote local -country- spending in order to make up for the decreased exports. And that worked.

It now works both ways: the consumer spending went sky high (and has to be controlled now) and on the other side exports are growing again.

To find the balance is easy to comment on, but again, complicated to do.

Also: the Chinese do NOT spend their money with credit cards, they spend the cash/money they have in the bank and they still have a lot of savings, unlike most people in the west BECAUSE they save 30% of their income whether low, medium or high; it's a norm in China

LaoPo

[flying]

What's he say about the Baht this year? I'm about to transfer a large sum of money into Thailand and would love to see the exchange rate better.

Well if it is USD your changing to Baht you may get a boost from now till end of month.......at least it is looking that way today

I am probably going to send some over myself

Edited January 20, 2010 by flying

[jackinbkk]

What's he say about the Baht this year? I'm about to transfer a large sum of money into Thailand and would love to see the exchange rate better.

Well if it is USD your changing to Baht you may get a boost from now till end of month.......at least it is looking that way today

I am probably going to send some over myself

Haha mnbcm, you need to tell us what you are changing into Baht. If it's North Korean Won I'd say do it now

The problem with statements like Faber's is that they are self fulfilling. Like a bank run. If everyone wants to sell together

prices will collapse.

I like the idea on Wheat. If you are starving you cant eat gold

I would actually be in favour of select currencies and commodities like copper.

[flying]

The problem with statements like Faber's is that they are self fulfilling. Like a bank run. If everyone wants to sell together

prices will collapse.

I like the idea on Wheat. If you are starving you cant eat gold

I would actually be in favour of select currencies and commodities like copper.

True but a bank run causes collapse due to banking practices. The fact that they do not in fact have your savings but have loaned it out 10x over. Where as a market is supply & demand controlling prices......Well in that respect I guess you could be saying the demand at the bank for the supply they do not hold But it was suppose to be a savings.....

As for wheat yes but most who suggest *investing* in wheat only hold a paper IOU for wheat & that tastes no better than gold. Yet the gold (if held physically) may be useful to buy things.

Edited January 20, 2010 by flying

[SantiSuk]

Marc Faber has made some really good calls in the past...he was right on the button about the baht in 1997...called the tech wreck in 2000 and was imploring people early 2007 to get out of the US and European markets ...I enjoy and always pay attention when he is on CNBC Asia

But has he correctly called any bull markets? There are a few commentators out there whose trick is to always take the negative. Of course they are going to be right when any downturn comes along, but that says nothing about all the money you lose by missing bull markets when following their negativity.

[crusader79]

Marc Faber has made some really good calls in the past...he was right on the button about the baht in 1997...called the tech wreck in 2000 and was imploring people early 2007 to get out of the US and European markets ...I enjoy and always pay attention when he is on CNBC Asia

But has he correctly called any bull markets? There are a few commentators out there whose trick is to always take the negative. Of course they are going to be right when any downturn comes along, but that says nothing about all the money you lose by missing bull markets when following their negativity.

He makes positive recommendations all the time, one of the best having been strongly urging investors into gold and commodities from about 2001-2, when there was zero interest in them.

Since he's a colorful character and one of the few who anticipates busts, those dire predictions get picked up by the media, which gives the impression he only makes negative calls. If you subscribe to his monthly report (expensive) you get the full picture, but setting up a Google search is also useful. The single best source for his detailed picks is the twice yearly Barron's Roundtable, which you can access for free.

[crusader79]

Here's the article on the Jan 2010 Roundtable, click the link '2009 Roundtable Report Card' to see those results (the picks he made at the Jan 2009 Roundtable):

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB126359...nel_article%3D1

Maybe I'm doing something wrong but I can't find it.

LaoPo

Hmmm, that was supposed to link to the full article, but I see Barron's computer has reverted to a password page. If you Google 'Barron's 2010 Faber report card' you'll get the full article, and the link to Faber's report card is in there.

[LaoPo]

Here's the article on the Jan 2010 Roundtable, click the link '2009 Roundtable Report Card' to see those results (the picks he made at the Jan 2009 Roundtable):

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB126359...nel_article%3D1

Maybe I'm doing something wrong but I can't find it.

LaoPo

Hmmm, that was supposed to link to the full article, but I see Barron's computer has reverted to a password page. If you Google 'Barron's 2010 Faber report card' you'll get the full article, and the link to Faber's report card is in there.

Thank you! Found it.

In that report Dr. Marc Faber gave 11 picks; 9 positive and 2 negative over a period of 6 months in the 2nd half of 2009 (June 10th> Dec 31st); average profit of the total of 11 stocks was +21.30% over 6 months; quite impressive I might say.

Interesting is that he had 4 Thai stocks on his list: MCOT +29.7% - Dynasty Ceramic +63.4% - Airports of Thailand +40.5% & Thai Airways Int'l + 32.9% which is an average of + 41,63% in 6 months!

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB126363059092930421.html

LaoPo

[basjke]

Here's the article on the Jan 2010 Roundtable, click the link '2009 Roundtable Report Card' to see those results (the picks he made at the Jan 2009 Roundtable):

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB126359...nel_article%3D1

Maybe I'm doing something wrong but I can't find it.

LaoPo

Hmmm, that was supposed to link to the full article, but I see Barron's computer has reverted to a password page. If you Google 'Barron's 2010 Faber report card' you'll get the full article, and the link to Faber's report card is in there.

Thank you! Found it.

In that report Dr. Marc Faber gave 11 picks; 9 positive and 2 negative over a period of 6 months in the 2nd half of 2009 (June 10th> Dec 31st); average profit of the total of 11 stocks was +21.30% over 6 months; quite impressive I might say.

Interesting is that he had 4 Thai stocks on his list: MCOT +29.7% - Dynasty Ceramic +63.4% - Airports of Thailand +40.5% & Thai Airways Int'l + 32.9% which is an average of + 41,63% in 6 months!

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB126363059092930421.html

LaoPo

Is there some way where you can check the current picks of any of those guys?It's is quite easy to publish today what they picked 6 months ago,even I can show a profit that way.

Anyway if I'm not mistaken his average is lower the market index rise over the same period.

[LaoPo]

Is there some way where you can check the current picks of any of those guys?It's is quite easy to publish today what they picked 6 months ago,even I can show a profit that way.

Anyway if I'm not mistaken his average is lower the market index rise over the same period.

Of course; go to the local (country) stock markets websites and check upon any particular stock.

Is his average lower than the market rise over the same period ?....in those 6 months? Which markets rise are you referring to?

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Faber: Portugal Debt Default Would Kill Euro

Wed, 20 Jan 2010 01:36 PM

By: Ellen Chang

Investors should expect to see more sovereign debt defaults, says Marc Faber, the editor of The Gloom Boom & Doom Report.

He said sovereign debt defaults occur after a financial crisis.

The countries to look out for now are Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain.

Countries will have problems paying their debt, he told Yahoo Tech Ticker.

Portugal and other countries have a great likelihood of defaulting occurring even as soon as the next two years, he said.

Defaults from those countries could also kill the euro, Faber said.

Confidence in Greece is waning as its deficit rises and credit ratings are slashed, Reuters reported. Greek’s weak economy is affecting the euro.

“What is really crushing the euro is additional concern about the serviceability of the massive amount of debt rung up in Greece,” said Dan Cook, a senior market analyst at IG Markets in Chicago.

While that issue remains up in the air, “we will likely see a lot of selling pressure on the euro,” he said.

Last month, Moody’s Investors Service and two other major agencies decreased Greece's debt rating, Dow Jones reported.

Moody’s said that Portugal and Greece, which both have high levels of debt, could experience a “slow death” while much of the countries’ money is needed to pay back its debt.

Investor sentiment about the ability of Greece to repay its debt is waning.

“The central bank has clearly chosen to maintain its pressure on the Greek government, rather than easing the heightened tensions in bond markets,” said Laurent Bilke, a former ECB economist now at Nomura International PLC in London.

http://moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Faber-Port...01/20/id/347465

LaoPo

[basjke]

Is there some way where you can check the current picks of any of those guys?It's is quite easy to publish today what they picked 6 months ago,even I can show a profit that way.

Anyway if I'm not mistaken his average is lower the market index rise over the same period.

Of course; go to the local (country) stock markets websites and check upon any particular stock.

Is his average lower than the market rise over the same period ?....in those 6 months? Which markets rise are you referring to?

LaoPo

I think we are not on the same wave.What I had in mind was where can we check what are his picks today as being the stocks of choice for the next 6 months.It is easy to say you should have bought Mcot 6 months ago but it is a different story to tell us what we should buy today.

The market rises I was referring to are shown below.It seems that copy and paste doesn't work the way I want so I include a link to the source.To put it short,for example the Thai market has risen 63.3 % over the year 2009.Keep in mind that the rise occurred between march and december then I consider 41.63 % a poor performance or at least not something to write home about.Keep in mind that those guy's just name a lot of stocks but don't actually buy them.It is easy to publish performances from market indexes and individual stocks after they happened but there will not be too many portfolios which show the same performance over the same period.

Following are Asian stock markets' moves over full year

2009.

MARKET Index level % gain

2009

Sri Lanka (Colombo All-share) .CSE 3385.55 125.3

Indonesia (JSX) .JKSE 2534.36 87

India (Sensex) .BSESN 17464.81 81

China (Shanghai Composite) .SSEC 3277.14 80

Taiwan (Taiex) .TWII 8188.11 78.3

Singapore (FT Straits Times) .FTSTI 2897.62 64.5

Thailand (SET) .SETI 734.54 63.3

Philippines (PHS Composite) .PSI 3052.68 63.0

Pakistan (Karachi 100) .KSE 9386.92 60

Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh) .VNI 494.77 56.8

Hong Kong (Hang Seng) .HSI 21872.5 52.0

South Korea (KOSPI) .KS11 1682.77 49.7

Malaysia (KLSE Composite) 1269.89 44.8

Australia (S&P/ASX 200) 4870.64 30.9

Tokyo (Nikkei average) .N225 10546.44 19.0

New Zealand (NZX 50) .NZ50 3230.15 18.9

A link to the reuters article.

[LaoPo]

I think we are not on the same wave.What I had in mind was where can we check what are his picks today as being the stocks of choice for the next 6 months.

OK, sorry if I misunderstood.

Picks for the future; I don't know but suppose they would be here?

http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/public/pSTD.cfm?pageSPS_ID=2010

Seems reasonable.

LaoPo

[basjke]

I think we are not on the same wave.What I had in mind was where can we check what are his picks today as being the stocks of choice for the next 6 months.

OK, sorry if I misunderstood.

Picks for the future; I don't know but suppose they would be here?

http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/public/pSTD.cfm?pageSPS_ID=2010

Seems reasonable.

LaoPo

Sorry but do you mind to provide your password for the link you provided or do you suggest I shell out 200$ to find out if he publish future predictions or just keep telling us about his 6 months old ideas.

By the way while you are posting that password do you mind to reply also to the answer I provided on your second question you asked me in your previous post?

[LaoPo]

Sorry but do you mind to provide your password for the link you provided or do you suggest I shell out 200$ to find out if he publish future predictions or just keep telling us about his 6 months old ideas.

By the way while you are posting that password do you mind to reply also to the answer I provided on your second question you asked me in your previous post?

Why ask me such a childish question if you have the opportunity to write an email to his website yourself? I just handed you the link since you were too lazy to look for it yourself.

If you can't spare a mere $ 200 why ask about his predictions for 2010 by Doctor Faber anyway ?

Surely you know better than anyone, so start an investing website yourself: "getrichcheaplywithbasjke" just $ 100/year

LaoPo

[basjke]

Sorry but do you mind to provide your password for the link you provided or do you suggest I shell out 200$ to find out if he publish future predictions or just keep telling us about his 6 months old ideas.

By the way while you are posting that password do you mind to reply also to the answer I provided on your second question you asked me in your previous post?

Why ask me such a childish question if you have the opportunity to write an email to his website yourself? I just handed you the link since you were too lazy to look for it yourself.

If you can't spare a mere $ 200 why ask about his predictions for 2010 by Doctor Faber anyway ?

Surely you know better than anyone, so start an investing website yourself: "getrichcheaplywithbasjke" just $ 100/year

LaoPo

Sorry but you just kicked the wrong leg.YOU started a topic about some guy who published recently,like all those market gurus,which stocks he recommended 6 months ago.

Ok,tell me what profit you have in mind and I will tell you within the next 20 minutes which stock you should have bought 6 months ago.If you like I will even say that it was a stock pick of me.Am I famous already now?

Then you provide me a link to a website,which requires a 200$ subscription,but which doesn't inform that it will provide any other bul__it then the one it publishes on any other free website.If you want some more of that kind of websites surf to Motley fool.I assume I don't have to explain what is written on that site as the name says it all.

Then you say he ,with his backdated predictions, made 41.63 % on the Thai stock market while the Thai market index made some 63.3 % over the same period.But till now you refuse,even after 2 requests, to reply to that FACT and just try to turn away the attention of the facts with some provocative replies.

It's not a fact that because you have a high post count and a signature in blue colour that your posts the truth and only the truth.

Edited January 21, 2010 by basjke

[LaoPo]

Sorry but do you mind to provide your password for the link you provided or do you suggest I shell out 200$ to find out if he publish future predictions or just keep telling us about his 6 months old ideas.

By the way while you are posting that password do you mind to reply also to the answer I provided on your second question you asked me in your previous post?

Why ask me such a childish question if you have the opportunity to write an email to his website yourself? I just handed you the link since you were too lazy to look for it yourself.

If you can't spare a mere $ 200 why ask about his predictions for 2010 by Doctor Faber anyway ?

Surely you know better than anyone, so start an investing website yourself: "getrichcheaplywithbasjke" just $ 100/year

LaoPo

1. Sorry but you just kicked the wrong leg.

2. YOU started a topic about some guy who published recently,like all those market gurus,which stocks he recommended 6 months ago.

Ok,tell me what profit you have in mind and I will tell you within the next 20 minutes which stock you should have bought 6 months ago.If you like I will even say that it was a stock pick of me.Am I famous already now?

3. Then you provide me a link to a website,which requires a 200$ subscription,but which doesn't inform that it will provide any other bul__it then the one it publishes on any other free website.If you want some more of that kind of websites surf to Motley fool.I assume I don't have to explain what is written on that site as the name says it all.

4. Then you say he ,with his backdated predictions, made 41.63 % on the Thai stock market while the Thai market index made some 63.3 % over the same period.But till now you refuse,even after 2 requests, to reply to that FACT and just try to turn away the attention of the facts with some provocative replies.

5. It's not a fact that because you have a high post count and a signature in blue colour that your posts the truth and only the truth.

1. You asked for it, ridiculing previous messages with facts and ridiculing not only me but a proven respectful and successful financial "Guru" as well.

2. Wrong. He didn't publish those data; another website did: Barrons.

And, I didn't start a topic about what stocks he recommended 6 months ago; look at the topic title: Marc Faber: Take Your Money Out Of Stocks Now

3. YOU asked: "Is there some way where you can check the current picks of any of those guys?" and I provided a link for you, related to Mr. Faber's website.

BTW: I reacted to the results, made in the second half of 2009*, in a link provided by another member, Crusader79, not my link.

4. You're wrong again. I just commented (also) to the results* whereby he (Dr. Faber) picked 4 Thai stocks as told in the Barrons website.

* The Thai stock market on June 10th, 2009* stood at 624.55 and on December 31st, 2009 the SET stood at 735 or around; that's a PLUS of + 17.7% and NOT +63.3% as you write; You're wrong again!

The results I was talking about were in the period, given in the other members' link: from June 10 - December 31; that's the second half of 2009.

5. Completely correct.

Have a nice day.

LaoPo

[crusader79]

Here's the article on the Jan 2010 Roundtable, click the link '2009 Roundtable Report Card' to see those results (the picks he made at the Jan 2009 Roundtable):

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB126359...nel_article%3D1

Maybe I'm doing something wrong but I can't find it.

LaoPo

Hmmm, that was supposed to link to the full article, but I see Barron's computer has reverted to a password page. If you Google 'Barron's 2010 Faber report card' you'll get the full article, and the link to Faber's report card is in there.

Thank you! Found it.

In that report Dr. Marc Faber gave 11 picks; 9 positive and 2 negative over a period of 6 months in the 2nd half of 2009 (June 10th> Dec 31st); average profit of the total of 11 stocks was +21.30% over 6 months; quite impressive I might say.

Interesting is that he had 4 Thai stocks on his list: MCOT +29.7% - Dynasty Ceramic +63.4% - Airports of Thailand +40.5% & Thai Airways Int'l + 32.9% which is an average of + 41,63% in 6 months!

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB126363059092930421.html

LaoPo

Just to avoid any confusion (of which this thread isn't in short supply), there were two results links in that Barron's link I posted, one for Faber's full year 2009 results (the percentage figures I posted), one for the second half of 2009 only (the figures you reference above).

His detailed 2010 picks will be published by Barron's this weekend or next (probably next).

These twice yearly Barron's roundtables remain the best free source for his detailed picks, without subscribing to the newsletters.

[Carmine6]

This call by Faber wasn't intended to be a timing call, but it happened to have been a good time to go short. The big question is does the sell off continue as Faber was thinking?

[basjke]

This call by Faber wasn't intended to be a timing call, but it happened to have been a good time to go short. The big question is does the sell off continue as Faber was thinking?

Did he say the sell of will continue?Oops only 50 days later he already has a completely different view on the situation.See here what the weatherman predicts today.

[Naam]

This call by Faber wasn't intended to be a timing call, but it happened to have been a good time to go short. The big question is does the sell off continue as Faber was thinking?

Faber's call was mid january. please tell us about the good time shorting what markets and where do you see any selloff since then?

[Carmine6]

This call by Faber wasn't intended to be a timing call, but it happened to have been a good time to go short. The big question is does the sell off continue as Faber was thinking?

Faber's call was mid january. please tell us about the good time shorting what markets and where do you see any selloff since then?

You'll note that my post was January 23rd, the end of that week. Monday, the day of the article was a US holiday. From Tuesday, the Dow declined 3 days in a row from about 10,700 to about 10,200. The S&P 500 declined those same 3 days from about 1,150 to about 1,090.

5% in 3 days isn't the end of the world. But if you look at a 3 month graph of the Dow, S&P 500, or Nasdaq, it's such a sharp break you can identify that week without looking at the date.

[Naam]

This call by Faber wasn't intended to be a timing call, but it happened to have been a good time to go short. The big question is does the sell off continue as Faber was thinking?

Faber's call was mid january. please tell us about the good time shorting what markets and where do you see any selloff since then?

You'll note that my post was January 23rd, the end of that week. Monday, the day of the article was a US holiday. From Tuesday, the Dow declined 3 days in a row from about 10,700 to about 10,200. The S&P 500 declined those same 3 days from about 1,150 to about 1,090.

5% in 3 days isn't the end of the world. But if you look at a 3 month graph of the Dow, S&P 500, or Nasdaq, it's such a sharp break you can identify that week without looking at the date.

that is corect, but a week means nothing if you are an investor. it means of course a lot if you are a daytrader. but Faber is not a daytrader. he is always quoted (ze zwizz Guru has shpoken) when he was right. those 50% when his forecasts were wrong are conveniently never mentioned, neither by him nor by the media which favours his sensational messages.

[Carmine6]

This call by Faber wasn't intended to be a timing call, but it happened to have been a good time to go short. The big question is does the sell off continue as Faber was thinking?

Faber's call was mid january. please tell us about the good time shorting what markets and where do you see any selloff since then?

You'll note that my post was January 23rd, the end of that week. Monday, the day of the article was a US holiday. From Tuesday, the Dow declined 3 days in a row from about 10,700 to about 10,200. The S&P 500 declined those same 3 days from about 1,150 to about 1,090.

5% in 3 days isn't the end of the world. But if you look at a 3 month graph of the Dow, S&P 500, or Nasdaq, it's such a sharp break you can identify that week without looking at the date.

that is corect, but a week means nothing if you are an investor. it means of course a lot if you are a daytrader. but Faber is not a daytrader. he is always quoted (ze zwizz Guru has shpoken) when he was right. those 50% when his forecasts were wrong are conveniently never mentioned, neither by him nor by the media which favours his sensational messages.

Hence, my notation that he hadn't intended to make a market timing call followed by my query on if the decline will continue.