PM confident Democrat to win 240 seats next election

[webfact]

PM confident Democrat to win 240 seats next election

BANGKOK: -- (NNT) – Prime Minister and Democrat Party Leader, Abhisit Vejjajiva, has voiced confidence in the potential of his Democrat Party to win about 240 seats in the upcoming election due to rising popularity.

The prime minister stated that his party had targeted to win 240 seats for its MPs in the next election, based on a recent survey. He said such an estimation is realistic, although he admitted that he could not set up a single party government.

Prime Minister Abhisit confirmed that the estimation was not groundless as the Democrat Party could win more seats in many areas, especially in the central and northern part of Thailand. As for the northeastern part, he said popularity was on the rise, but he admitted that it would be difficult in terms of the candidates.

The prime minister continued to say that the policies of the government also played a vital role in the people's decisions during an election. He therefore stated that he had no fear and did not mind a house dissolution.

-- NNT 2010-02-05

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[hammered]

Quite a claim although certainly in the lower north they have performed very well in recent local elections. Whether this will be translated to national ones remains to be seen and quite a lot depends on the reds. If they go beserk the Dem popularity increases. It will also depend on deals with BJT as in say parts of the East of Thailand they could be competing agaisnt each other. Also Banharn hasnt yet been punished by voters for forming the coalition with PPP after stating he wouldnt pre-the last election which upset a lot who voted for CT. My guess is that the elction will be pretty much even more between Dems and PTP than ever with smaller parties squeezed more but with the wily BJT maintaining influence

[jdinasia]

From 165 to 240 would be a major gain for them! If Abhisit continues to function well I think something in that range is possible. The question then becomes are the gains from the Red side or from his current coalition partners? Either way works but it would be better if they came from the main opposition party.

[geriatrickid]

Well, he certainly can't say he will lose seats. Now all he needs to do is ask the military for permission to hold an election, right?

[Ricardo]

I admire PM-Abhisit's confidence, but wonder at the timing of this, an election is surely several months away, unless Thaksin's PATsies are planning an election straight after their civil-war ?

Seriously I would doubt that anyone will get an overall majority, at the next election, unless it is run by Thaksin of course !

Coalition-politics are here for a while yet.

[animatic]

Larger minority certainly, a majority no, but how big it goes is up to Thaksin.

If he goes over the top and doesn't take control, he loses points with more people.

Having Thaksin lose enough money, to go over the top, but cause minimal damage and lose,

might be the better of several bad situations, if it can erase his prevailing influence in some corners.

Could be better for all, including the legitimate aims of some Pro-democracy/Equality Red Shirts.

In light of the current health issue, sooner is better to settle things down....

Sort of an anti-Thasin vaccine, to make you sick for a bit, but never deathly ill afterwards

If Thaksin does take control an election is not likely, indefinite 'marshal law until he can,

put down dissent' would be the more likely scenario. He was heading that way in 2006,

and things would appear worse. 240 seats in a legislature that rubber stamps for Thaksin...

and can't bring censure motions and the press truly hobbled... worse case scenario.

Especially in light of the current health issue....

Interesting is the alleged split off of Pallop... but could be a ruse.

Edited February 6, 2010 by animatic

[webfact]

One nonsensical post bordering libel deleted

[animatic]

One nonsensical post bordering libel deleted

And the day is still young...

You mods may need combat pay this month...

[lensta]

"upcoming election" I didn't know there was an election on the horizon.

I doubt that Abhasit will call an election til he absolutely has to.

[jdinasia]

Well, he certainly can't say he will lose seats. Now all he needs to do is ask the military for permission to hold an election, right?

Nope he CAN call an election anytime he wants. The question would be why would he do so before this elected Parliament's term is finished?

Much of the current difficulties can be directly linked to Thaksin prematurely dissolving Parliament to try and get around the dissolution of his political party. (Then again after the shincorp sale etc he had lots of reasons to try and get a new Parliament and government in place.)

Elections are not THAT far off even if he holds the current coalition together.

[hammered]

"upcoming election" I didn't know there was an election on the horizon.

I doubt that Abhasit will call an election til he absolutely has to.

I doubt he will go the wire. Jan 2011 should see the economy back leaving the most advantageous position for the government. He would probably prefer not to go this year but with infighting in PTP and the red movement he could risk going for it.

[Siripon]

Some say the assets case won't hurt Thaksin politically, if the court seizes the lot he'll get a lot of sympathy in the next election, helped by having a credible face such as Pridiyathon leading Pheua Thai.

If he gets to keep some, he can continue to control the party to fight the next election.

[animatic]

Pridiyathon Devakula writes for The Nation now.

Somehow I see his days of supporting Thaksins aims are well behind him.

[CLOD]

Interesting to see that "abisit the abuser" has no fear about democrat party dissolution, makes you wonder where he gets his confidence from considering the 258million baht court case.

The real issue here is that an election could come before the court has come up with a verdict.

What a disgracefull mess abisits military coups and double standards are causing, but who gives a toss about democracy and the people electorate.

[animatic]

Ah, back to pushing the Dems dissolution case, anything to try and get a new election,

and bring Thaksin back to power...

Of course if he loses the money case and the Reds run riot,

this will make it much harder to buy another NE election mandate.

Isn't using that name just above for the PM, counter to forum rules by the way.

Certainly HRW never used this name, and proper names are capitalized.

No newspaper is calling him that as used just above.

Fair play, if I get warned on changing names, why not this one too?

Edited February 10, 2010 by animatic

[Ricardo]

What a disgracefull mess abisits military coups

PM-Abhisit has led or instigated or encouraged in any way multiple-coups by the military ?

[way2muchcoffee]

What a disgracefull mess abisits military coups

PM-Abhisit has led or instigated or encouraged in any way multiple-coups by the military ?

You will never get any answer from CLOD. He is a serial propagandist with no interest in discussion.

[hammered]

According to Suttichai Yoon on his blog a recent poll suggests throughout Thailand the poltically neutral come out on top. Dems second and others combined third. In the Isaan poltically neutral and PTP tied on 40% each with Dems doubling their popularity, which doesnt say a lot.

Indicates a boredom with the current situation I guess. No doubt though we will see.

The PTP loss of Isaan popularity tallies with the very very small win in the assumed red heartland of Mahasarakham. Still things can change.

[jdinasia]

Interesting to see that "abisit the abuser" has no fear about democrat party dissolution, makes you wonder where he gets his confidence from considering the 258million baht court case.

The real issue here is that an election could come before the court has come up with a verdict.

What a disgracefull mess abisits military coups and double standards are causing, but who gives a toss about democracy and the people electorate.

Yes .. we understand that you are upset that you can't actually link the Dems to scandal, that you can't link the Dems to coups, and that the 2 main bodies dealing with the purported Dem scandal have issued reports clearing them. Yes I think the final decision has not been announced but the folks that determine the issue have made statements. I think the current issue is whether to dismiss the charges for lack of evidence, or to acquit them.