March 12: 'Most Worrying Day' For Thailand

[elcent]

Many interesting observations and arguments -- thank you all -- you have added to my education .

I continue to believe in the red movement -- I continue to believe that the poor need a voice, and that they most need a world class education and decent health care/nutrition -- not only more cooking and carpentry classes.

Most Thai poor are child like in their knowledge and approach to life -- they should have opportunity for more if they want more.

I am self-educated in English and many other subjects , but I had opportunity and motivation. Most rural poor do not have these. I wish I had access to decent health care and nutrition when I was young -- but now I will always have illness and no childeren -- but I have good life. My husband is farang and we provide free clinic in our village.

Ballpoint, you say: "What an arrogant, insulting, and above all patronising statement. You know nothing about what I want. You know nothing about my situation. You red lovers assume that anyone against you is against the poor. When someone points out the fact that they are not one homogeneous mass with one brain and one mouth, but are actually individuals, with individual preferences, it upsets you. You'd prefer to think of the poor as a miserable, down trodden group who are just waiting for someone to come along and redeem them. Sorry to blast a hole in your perfect world, but as I said before, there are groups who support the reds, groups who despise them and groups who are indifferent."

I am sorry you think I am arrogant and patronizing -- I don't want to know what you want or your situation. I can only say that some of us need to speak for the poor -- better that I speak than they have no voice -- better I speak than a farang speak for them -- whether farang has the name ballpoint or K. Abhisit.

The red movement will endure through this phase of identification with K. Thaksin and many thugs.

I do not go to Bangkok for the protest - we have work to do here in Tambon Ban Hong

Be careful the junta may put you under house arrest for the next 20+years like it happened in Burma with Aung San Syu Kyi just kidding

[cavelight]

<br />I'm hoping all this turmoil will weaken the baht a few percentage points.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

That can't happen, because the Baht is pegged to the Dollar. Sorry - I wish it could. Perhaps eventually when enough Thai exporters have gone bust, the gov will repeg it to make Thai goods more affordable for Western countries.

[webfact]

UPDATE

ISA mulled to keep lid on red shirts

By THE NATION

BANGKOK: -- Invoking the Internal Security Act to pre-empt possible violence during the upcoming red-shirt rally remains an option for the government, top security officials said yesterday.

A meeting of the Security Situation Monitoring Committee will be held on Monday, during which the need to impose the ISA will be reviewed.

The government has declined to comment on the necessity of invoking the ISA, but recent developments, including open threats of violence by pro-Thaksin hardliners, have caused considerable anxiety among the public.

"If we conclude there is a high chance of violence, we may propose the Cabinet invoke the ISA," said General Pirun Paewpolsong, Army chief of staff and secretary-general of the Internal Security Operations Command.

The ISA authorises the government to deploy troops to control potentially explosive situations, restrict the public's movements and regulate the media.

The committee is concerned about possible acts of sabotage aimed at creating chaos, he said, adding that security units were already prepared and on alert.

Army chief General Anupong Paochinda said Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, who is in charge of national security, would have the final say on whether to invoke the ISA.

"There are many considerations, such as the possible effect on Thailand's image and the economy," he said.

Meanwhile, General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, chairman of the opposition Pheu Thai Party, cautioned any talk about violence would only hurt Thailand's image.

"If you ask me, the government should not jump to the conclusion that the ISA is needed. But the government must do what it must do. Just don't go around advertising it. The more you talk, the more the whole world knows about it," Chavalit said.

The red shirts have threatened to "shut Bangkok down" during the planned rally in a bid to bring about political change.

However, protest organiser and red-shirt leader Natthawut Saikua yesterday pledged an orderly and peaceful protest and dismissed fears of violence.

"We've mapped out a detailed plan, and our protests will intensify day by day in order to achieve our objective of forcing a House dissolution," he said.

"Thai citizens must decide to shut down Bangkok for a few days if the country is to move forward."

Natthawut said the crowds would be well behaved but relentless in pushing for the collapse of the government. The red shirts do not condone violence as alleged by the authorities.

He said the planned rally would project an impressive show of force and that the prime minister would see for himself the strength of the opposition before departing for an official visit to Australia.

From the main rally site in Sanam Luang, the crowds will surge into Rajdamnoen Avenue, passing the main rally stage at the Phan Fah Bridge on their way to the Royal Plaza, Natthawut said.

The red shirts will install loudspeakers on both sides of the avenue to enable the protesters to follow the speeches from the stages. Guard posts, first-aid tents and food- and water-distribution centres will be set up at designated locations throughout the rally site.

The plan is to confine the rally to the main site, but the red shirts will announce in advance if they decide to hold mini-rallies at other locations.

A week before the mass rally starts, the red shirts have already notified organisers they will bring at least 35,000 pickups to the rally site.

They have also threatened to seize any tow trucks the authorities use to try to remove the vehicles from the streets.

The red-shirt faction, led by Natthawut, Jatuporn Promphan and Veera Musigapong, insists it is not linked to the violence-prone clique of Maj-General Khattiya "Seh Daeng" Sawasdipol and Panlop Pinmanee.

It does admit to an alliance with the Pheu Thai Party but says it maintains an independent leadership.

-- The Nation 2010-03-06

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[anotherpeter]

Many interesting observations and arguments -- thank you all -- you have added to my education .

I continue to believe in the red movement -- I continue to believe that the poor need a voice, and that they most need a world class education and decent health care/nutrition -- not only more cooking and carpentry classes.

Most Thai poor are child like in their knowledge and approach to life -- they should have opportunity for more if they want more.

...

The red movement will endure through this phase of identification with K. Thaksin and many thugs.

...

I think most people here support the poor. It's Thaksin (and his many thugs) that most of us don't support, and the reds are too intertwined with Thaksin.

[brahmburgers]

The Red leaders have pushed presumptuousness to ever lower levels. They keep saying they 'speak for the poor.' Granted, they're predecessors (TRT and its newer incarnations) got a good number of votes from Issan, but that was years ago. However, there are poor people throughout Thailand who voted for other parties, and not all poor Issanites voted the way their pu yai ban (who was likely paid by TRT types) ordered them to vote.

The Red leaders have a lot less followers than they purport to have - as has been proven by low turn-outs, cancelled protests, and will be borne out by low turn-out for their upcoming demonstration. If outside money was not greasing their political machine, they'd have far fewer numbers.

Either way, there will be an election coming. That's the venue to show numbers of supporters, and the lead-up to elections is the time and venue to have spirited debates about real issues.

[jdinasia]

I am self-educated in English and many other subjects , but I had opportunity and motivation. Most rural poor do not have these. IMany interesting observations and arguments -- thank you all -- you have added to my education .

I am sorry you think I am arrogant and patronizing -- I don't want to know what you want or your situation. I can only say that some of us need to speak for the poor -- better that I speak than they have no voice -- better I speak than a farang speak for them -- whether farang has the name ballpoint or K. Abhisit.

The red movement will endure through this phase of identification with K. Thaksin and many thugs.

I do not go to Bangkok for the protest - we have work to do here in Tambon Ban Hong

Hmmmmmm I aint buying it.

The writing you show constantly (other than the last line) is not that of someone "self educated" in English. The use of the word farang shows a lack of understanding of its meaning etc ...

You no more speak for the poor than TRT or PPP or PTP does.

[jayboy]

Either way, there will be an election coming. That's the venue to show numbers of supporters, and the lead-up to elections is the time and venue to have spirited debates about real issues.

Quite so.Let's hope that the elections will be conducted fairly without interference or attempted interference by any of the state's agencies.The record in previous elections was very poor on this point.

[jdinasia]

Either way, there will be an election coming. That's the venue to show numbers of supporters, and the lead-up to elections is the time and venue to have spirited debates about real issues.

Quite so.Let's hope that the elections will be conducted fairly without interference or attempted interference by any of the state's agencies.The record in previous elections was very poor on this point.

I hope that the elections are fair too! That includes the EC watching closely and doing their job. That includes the courts doing their job etc. The history that is most questionable isn't state interference it is parties participating in wide-spread massive elctoral fraud.

[craigt3365]

Many interesting observations and arguments -- thank you all -- you have added to my education .

I continue to believe in the red movement -- I continue to believe that the poor need a voice, and that they most need a world class education and decent health care/nutrition -- not only more cooking and carpentry classes.

Most Thai poor are child like in their knowledge and approach to life -- they should have opportunity for more if they want more.

...

The red movement will endure through this phase of identification with K. Thaksin and many thugs.

...

I think most people here support the poor. It's Thaksin (and his many thugs) that most of us don't support, and the reds are too intertwined with Thaksin.

Most people do support the poor...except the politicians...who just want more money. This is all crazy. Everybody knows where the money comes from to support these red shirt events. Without T's money, this would not be happening. Both sides are like little kids fighting. It is really childish. Except when you are a politician (or army or police) and it hurts your pocketbook. They are using the poor as pawns. Preying on their desire to get out of debt, educate their kids, etc. Unfortunately, with so much corruption, that will never happen. All the available money ends up in a few rich peoples pockets.

I was driving down Suk yesterday. There is a huge billboard for the Puea Thai party. It promises 3 things to the people. 1. get rid of your debt 2. bring back your happiness 3. well, was driving too fast...couldn't get the last one. Again, preying on the poor....

Like I mentioned on another thread, the latest "rumor" in the village is that if Taksin comes back, everybody will get 1MM baht. No wonder they want him back!

[Valentine]

Goerge Orwell would have been proud of the FB thread by the UDD.

[way2muchcoffee]

Quite so.Let's hope that the elections will be conducted fairly without interference or attempted interference by any of the state's agencies.The record in previous elections was very poor on this point.

Agreed.

Military interference.

Government interference from whatever side is controlling gov't.

Vote buying from both sides.

Positioning of booths so observers can see the votes made Thaksin gov't.

Inability to campaign for fear of violence (Udon Lovers, RCM51, DAAD, etc.)

Campaign Donation Fraud (Dems allegedly)

Edited March 6, 2010 by way2muchcoffee

[jayboy]

Either way, there will be an election coming. That's the venue to show numbers of supporters, and the lead-up to elections is the time and venue to have spirited debates about real issues.

Quite so.Let's hope that the elections will be conducted fairly without interference or attempted interference by any of the state's agencies.The record in previous elections was very poor on this point.

I hope that the elections are fair too! That includes the EC watching closely and doing their job. That includes the courts doing their job etc. The history that is most questionable isn't state interference it is parties participating in wide-spread massive elctoral fraud.

I don't disagree though which is the greatest concern is a matter for debate among reasonable people.I'm not sure why you single out the courts.To the extent they will be involved I'm sure they will perform with the same degree of independence, lack of corruption and absence of partisanship for which they have been famed far and wide for so long.

[jdinasia]

I certainly hope so! After all, they have certainly given plenty of information on the why's and how's of all the major decisions they have made in the past few years. I have to go back to about 2001 to find a court decision that I don't fully understand how they arrived at a decision.

I really think the EC should be funded enough to produce PSA's that are required to be broadcast on all radio and TV channels in Thailand about the duties of citizens when it comes to voting and vote buying etc. (Remember that not voting is not an option in Thailand)

[jayboy]

I certainly hope so! After all, they have certainly given plenty of information on the why's and how's of all the major decisions they have made in the past few years. I have to go back to about 2001 to find a court decision that I don't fully understand how they arrived at a decision.

I really think the EC should be funded enough to produce PSA's that are required to be broadcast on all radio and TV channels in Thailand about the duties of citizens when it comes to voting and vote buying etc. (Remember that not voting is not an option in Thailand)

The EC itself needs to be very closely scrutinised.Without taking a position here there were very credible reports of its partisanship not so much because it was a creation of the Junta but because of the dubious nature of many of its decisions. particularly the dissolution of entire parties as opposed to guilty individuals.They will be watched like hawks, but there's no alternative mechanism so they should be given a chance to redeem a very mixed reputation.Personally I'm more concerned at the potential threats from the army and the state's security apparatus including the infamous (for anyone who knows their disgusting behaviour in the 1970's) ISOC.The compromised elite hates the concept of the Thai people as a whole deciding on its political future and if past evidence is anything to go by will move heaven and earth to thwart the majority - whether by brute force (rather unlikely) or (more likely) some spurious quasi-legal way.

[jdinasia]

The EC (Election Commision) a creation of the Junta? I think you might be mistaken there and fing the Assets Examination Commission to have been brought back by the Junta.

[jayboy]

The EC (Election Commision) a creation of the Junta? I think you might be mistaken there and fing the Assets Examination Commission to have been brought back by the Junta.

Apologies. I think you are right but as I said its provenance isn't really a matter of great concern.

[mackayae]

Anyone have a schedule/timetable of events for next weekend (12-14), showing day, time and location. Just curious as to what areas to avoid.

[toptuan]

Got to love this place, theres always another 'D' day, just around each corner.

Time to stock up on baked beans again

Got your own explosive devices, eh?

[Ricardo]

The red shirts have threatened to "shut Bangkok down" during the planned rally in a bid to bring about political change.

However, protest organiser and red-shirt leader Natthawut Saikua yesterday pledged an orderly and peaceful protest and dismissed fears of violence.

<snip for brevity>

They have also threatened to seize any tow trucks the authorities use to try to remove the vehicles from the streets.

-- The Nation 2010-03-06

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

How can a demonstration "seize any tow trucks" while also being totally peaceful, as claimed ?

The EC itself needs to be very closely scrutinised.Without taking a position here there were very credible reports of its partisanship not so much because it was a creation of the Junta

A glance at Wikipedia shows that the E.C. was formed under the 1997 Constitution, a decade before the September-2006 coup, so it cannot have been "a creation of the Junta" as you suggest. Perhaps you meant to refer to the current people on the commission, who were appointed post-coup, instead ?

The steady work of the E.C., holding individual MPs & occasionally entire party-executives to account, for cheating & corruption, has IMO been one of the positive changes in the political-process over the past several years. Of course this has led those committed democrats the Red-Shirts to protest, outside their offices, at the progress !

But cleaning-up elections is surely essential to a less-biased system ? Perhaps the E.C. deserves the support, not condemnation, of farangs wanting change ?

[Insight]

When you read "the red shirts will be peaceful", think of Thaksin and "I will accept the verdict" or "I will stay out of politics" .... or "the red shirts have moved beyond Thaksin" ...

[jayboy]

A glance at Wikipedia shows that the E.C. was formed under the 1997 Constitution, a decade before the September-2006 coup, so it cannot have been "a creation of the Junta" as you suggest. Perhaps you meant to refer to the current people on the commission, who were appointed post-coup, instead ?

The steady work of the E.C., holding individual MPs & occasionally entire party-executives to account, for cheating & corruption, has IMO been one of the positive changes in the political-process over the past several years. Of course this has led those committed democrats the Red-Shirts to protest, outside their offices, at the progress !

But cleaning-up elections is surely essential to a less-biased system ? Perhaps the E.C. deserves the support, not condemnation, of farangs wanting change ?

Yes you are right about the EC.I think that the appointing committee is mostly made up now of a (surprise surprise) a bunch of judges who as we all know of course preserve a careful non partisan position.

You misunderstand my position.I fully support the Electoral Commission but it has to be fair and seen to be fair.You do not even mention the problems associated with EC decisions in the past which have been widely condemned and not just by Thaksinites.Ignoring or playing down these problems don't make them disappear and in fact just feeds the view of many that the system is rigged in favour of the elite.But the institution needs to be supported by all albeit with a degree of scepticism given its patchy record to date.

[jdinasia]

Pardon me? "widely condemned" by by whom?

It is probably important to consider the damage done to the checks and balances that were damaged by Thaksin to have a real conversation on this. The not too subtle digs at the judiciary don't seem to take into account the 2001 assets concealment decision etc.

The amazing thing is yet again we have those mysterious "elites" showing up in a conversation about laws that are pretty much black and white..................

[brahmburgers]

I'd assume the Election Commission doesn't have a heavy work load right now. How about they take this opportunity to educate the Thai people on what democracy is. Start with students. They could arrange to have a tabloid written which talks about democracy, and possibly have some historical vignettes. I'm western educated, so I lean to the Magna Carta, and the French and American Revolutions as some interesting examples of the passionate history that led to democracies. Regardless of historical references, Thais need to know that who they vote for is completely their personal decision. Their pu yai ban and others can suggest things, but that's it.

The reminder of how there were some voting booths positioned so officials could see how individuals were voting is a rattling reminder of how much room there is for improvements in Thai elections. I wonder if one voter complained at the time. Oh, excuse me, this is Thailand - common people never ever complain to higher ups - .....would hate to have anyone lose face.

Got to love this place, theres always another 'D' day, just around each corner.

Time to stock up on baked beans again

Got your own explosive devices, eh?

Reminds me of a time, long ago, when I shared a crash pad in Wash DC. It was during the Flower Power days/daze when house mates would bring home all sorts. One strange fellow (a very fat black guy named Leprakan), brought home an ex-con who had just got out of prison. At the time, I had a cat and, to save on cat food expenses, I cooked beans, put them in a jar, then stored it in a wooden cabinet. One night, the jar exploded and knocked the cabinet door open with a loud bang. The ex con, who was sleeping in a 2nd story room, literally dove out the window - thinking the cops were coming for him. We never saw him again.

[frodo]

UPDATE

ISA mulled to keep lid on red shirts

By THE NATION

The red shirts have threatened to "shut Bangkok down" during the planned rally in a bid to bring about political change.

However, protest organiser and red-shirt leader Natthawut Saikua yesterday pledged an orderly and peaceful protest and dismissed fears of violence.

They have also threatened to seize any tow trucks the authorities use to try to remove the vehicles from the streets.

The red-shirt faction, led by Natthawut, Jatuporn Promphan and Veera Musigapong, insists it is not linked to the violence-prone clique of Maj-General Khattiya "Seh Daeng" Sawasdipol and Panlop Pinmanee.

It does admit to an alliance with the Pheu Thai Party but says it maintains an independent leadership.

(edited for brevity)

-- The Nation 2010-03-06

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

Threats, threats, and more threats.

In another article, not mentioned here from the Nation, they continually talk about it being peaceful and orderly. I have yet to see the words, LEGAL. The threats of overthrowing the government or seizing tow trucks that need to tow illegally parked vehicles isn't legal. Then again, I can only consider the source and their paymaster. Legal has never existed in their equation.

[jayboy]

Pardon me? "widely condemned" by by whom?

It is probably important to consider the damage done to the checks and balances that were damaged by Thaksin to have a real conversation on this. The not too subtle digs at the judiciary don't seem to take into account the 2001 assets concealment decision etc.

The amazing thing is yet again we have those mysterious "elites" showing up in a conversation about laws that are pretty much black and white..................

If it is news to you that EC decisions have been widely questioned, you are either being disingenuous or it is too late for you to be educated.

I actually agree with you about the damage done by Thaksin to such checks and balances that existed.I also agree it's always helpful to have a broad context in which to debate.Otherwise it just becomes a bit "tu quoque", and I'm not lacking in guilt in this area myself.

Yeah, yeah "mysterious elites"....do you really want to have a discussion on this? Probably best to review the overwhelming evidence first.

[webfact]

UPDATE

Thailand's Thaksin urges supporters to join anti-gov rally

BANGKOK (AFP) -- Thailand's fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra on Saturday used his Twitter page to call on his supporters to join a mass anti-government rally, after a court seized most of his fortune.

Thaksin's loyal "Red Shirts", so-called for the clothes they wear, will gather in Bangkok on March 14 to demand the return of the populist leader, who was ousted in a military coup in 2006, and that the government quit.

"I would like to urge those who love democracy, justice, equality, and those who think that I have been bullied without mercy and humanity, to join the rally," wrote Thaksin on Saturday.

Thailand's Supreme Court last month ordered the state seizure of most of Thaksin's 2.3-billion-dollar shares wealth that it ruled he accumulated illegally by abusing his power to benefit his telecoms firm.

He is currently living in Dubai to escape a two-year jail term from another corruption case. Several other graft charges are outstanding against him.

The Red Shirts say they expect up to 600,000 people to attend this month's rallies, with people starting to gather from around the country on March 12 before the main demonstration two days later.

Thai premier Abhisit Vejjajiva has said his trip to Australia would go ahead as planned on March 13-17 despite the rallies, but a slew of extra security measures are in place and he has said tougher laws may be invoked.

Thailand's pro- and anti-Thaksin camps have both conducted destabilising street campaigns since the twice-elected tycoon was ousted, with some of the demonstrations turning violent.

Red Shirt riots in April derailed a major Asian summit and left two people dead.

Thailand's social rifts sharply divide its Thaksin-loving poorer communities, largely in the north and northeast rural regions, from those in the Bangkok-based elite amongst the military, palace and bureaucracy.

-- ©Copyright AFP 2010-03-06

Published with written approval from AFP.

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[termad]

yawn. more scaremongering from the Nation

gutter newspaper, news makers, not news reporters, that's why I never buy it, BUT buy the Bangkok Post daily.

The Post reports pretty much the same thing but at least it does allow the so called analyst and distant rtelative of the PM to espouse red propaganda so I guess it is more suited to some tastes

I wonder how many remember the respective records of the two papers back in 92. That said a lot more about which was willing to stand up for what it believed in rather than tow the market driven dont take a risk line. Nothing wrong with a newspaper having a political line that at least is honest and not some we are independent lie. Still 92 was the big test and one paper failed it miserably in terms of sticking up for freedom of the press.

His article yesterday was a very good summing up of the current situation into which Abhisit has put his country and fellow Thais. Some Thai newspapers wrote very similar articles yesterday in that they all said that it was Abhisit's duty to call an election and so save the country from a potentially calamitous turn of events.

[termad]

I am self-educated in English and many other subjects , but I had opportunity and motivation. Most rural poor do not have these. IMany interesting observations and arguments -- thank you all -- you have added to my education .

I am sorry you think I am arrogant and patronizing -- I don't want to know what you want or your situation. I can only say that some of us need to speak for the poor -- better that I speak than they have no voice -- better I speak than a farang speak for them -- whether farang has the name ballpoint or K. Abhisit.

The red movement will endure through this phase of identification with K. Thaksin and many thugs.

I do not go to Bangkok for the protest - we have work to do here in Tambon Ban Hong

Hmmmmmm I aint buying it.

The writing you show constantly (other than the last line) is not that of someone "self educated" in English. The use of the word farang shows a lack of understanding of its meaning etc ...

You no more speak for the poor than TRT or PPP or PTP does.

Who are you to say that he isn't self taught in English? To the best of my knowledge Shakespear didn't go to University so I suppose you believe that he wasn't self taught in History, Geography and Playwriting?

My hat is off to any non Native English speaker who can write in such clear, grammatical and precise English.

[Scott]

A post using excessively large font and all caps has been deleted. Please post using normal fonts.

[termad]

Get out sometime and see for yourself -- get out of your comfort zone -- go where farang do not go -- where education, health care, standard of living and self esteem are all pathetically bad -- is it propaganda to want a decent future -- at least for their children !

Thaksin was PM for 5 1/2 years, followed by Somchai and Samak. That would seem to have been enough time to change education (he was Education Minister for a time as well as PM), health care, standard of living and self esteem for the poor. But he didn't. Instead he spent his time lining his own pockets. So exactly how is he and his hand-picked and paid for red crew saviors of the poor? They are just using "the poor" as pawns in a dangerous game of power and money.

Did the previous Democrat led Governments have enough time to change Education, Health Care and the poor's standard of living?

I thought that Thaksin did change Education, Health Care and also tried to give a better standard of living to the poor, OTOP for instance. As for self esteem for the poor can you tell of any time during the Democrat led Goverments of the past when the poor had enough self esteem to consider that they had as much right to choose their Government as the Bangkok middle classes.