For The Redshirts To Win....

[jdinasia]

IF there was an election now, would the PTP (or whoever Thaksin's party is) "win"?

Assuming they win the most seats, they won't (or VERY unlikely) win more than 50% of the seats, so they will have to form a coalition.

How will that be any different to now?

Don't the PTP have more MPs than any other party? Why can't they form a coalition now? Why couldn't they after the PPP was disbanded?

They can't form a coalition now because the Democrats and possibly other influences "enticed" people who were previously in the TRT/PTP party over to their side. It's pretty obvious that those people will have to make a move fairly soon, or else their electorate will rip them a new one come next elections and they don't want that. That'll be the end of the current government and will likely bring PTP back "on top".

It however changes NOTHING in the overall way the country is managed. Thai democracy (or what passed for it) was set back a decade or so since the coup, and I see nothing to indicate that this ground is going to be made back up and that's sad or all people in all parts of the country and in (almost) every echelon of society, bar the very top.

Thai democracy was set back about 75 years when Thaksin bought the 2005 elections. Thailand was in now way ready for a PM that could not be censured by Parliament.

If you think that the political machines that changed sides to form the coalition with the Democrats will not be re-elected in their constituencies then I personally believe you will be shocked next year when the elections are held. Those same parties ran on a platform that included NOT forming a coalition with PPP.

I see indication that the Democrats are listening to the real concerns of the populace and trying to put sustainable systems in place to help out the rural poor. This is NOT an overnight kinda fix. It will take time. I hope they get the time to show they care.

[anotherpeter]

IF there was an election now, would the PTP (or whoever Thaksin's party is) "win"?

Assuming they win the most seats, they won't (or VERY unlikely) win more than 50% of the seats, so they will have to form a coalition.

How will that be any different to now?

Don't the PTP have more MPs than any other party? Why can't they form a coalition now? Why couldn't they after the PPP was disbanded?

They can't form a coalition now because the Democrats and possibly other influences "enticed" people who were previously in the TRT/PTP party over to their side. It's pretty obvious that those people will have to make a move fairly soon, or else their electorate will rip them a new one come next elections and they don't want that. That'll be the end of the current government and will likely bring PTP back "on top".

It however changes NOTHING in the overall way the country is managed. Thai democracy (or what passed for it) was set back a decade or so since the coup, and I see nothing to indicate that this ground is going to be made back up and that's sad or all people in all parts of the country and in (almost) every echelon of society, bar the very top.

You seem to forget that most of the parties that formed a coalition with the PPP campaigned prior to the election that they were not going to do that.

Was there money and other influences that caused them to form a coalition with the PPP?

[WinnieTheKhwai]

> Thai democracy was set back about 75 years when Thaksin bought the 2005 elections.

I think you will find that the 2005 elections were the least corrupt in Thai history, primarily because the need for vote buying was reduced primarily due to:

1. Unification of regional power brokers under TRT

2. Populist policies / "making good on promises for the first time" so people knew that they had more to expect from a TRT government than a couple hundred baht on election day!

[jdinasia]

> Thai democracy was set back about 75 years when Thaksin bought the 2005 elections.

I think you will find that the 2005 elections were the least corrupt in Thai history, primarily because the need for vote buying was reduced primarily due to:

1. Unification of regional power brokers under TRT

2. Populist policies / "making good on promises for the first time" so people knew that they had more to expect from a TRT government than a couple hundred baht on election day!

Everyone claims whatever election they are pushing is the cleanest in history. Note that I did NOT say vote buying. You also cut out the conclusion of that phrase (including my type of "in now way" which should have been "in no way")

The "Unification" of regional power brokers --- political machines in other words is exactly how he bought that unassailable place which made him think he could get away with his Temasek deals and whitewashing TRT.

Populist policies that could only damage the rural population unless the loans were forgiven or carried over was in effect buying the election too. Thaksin set up a Patron/Client system with the voters because they could not afford to pay back loans and needed him in office.