If Taksin Resigned In One Month

[Ajarn]

I think we have drifted off topic.  This topic is about what would replace Taksin not just about him.  Of course discussing his government is relevent since he is creating (to a great extent) the political landscape which eventually will have to be dealt with after he is gone....he will not live forever.  Even though his actions are relevant to the discussion I think that the discussion is focusing too much on what he is doing for the good and bad instead of focusing on what would happen when he is gone.

I'm getting the feeling that no one here (myself included) really has much understanding of politics in Thailand.  There has been no discussion of factions within Thai Rak Thai which might struggle for control...who heads up these factions...etc.etc. 

It doesn't take much analysis to say you either like or don't like what he's doing...all you have to do is get some news and vent your feelings.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You may not value my opinions, but I did respond directly to the question, including the details which you touched upon. If you wanted a discussion on that topic, you could have easily responded to it...

edit.. I just realized my words about Sanoh Thienthong and his TRT faction were written in another thread yesterday... I'm still able to discuss that here with you, if you'd care to.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'd like to hear your opinion of what Sanoh Thienthon and his TRT faction would do if Tahksin resigned. Also can you give me a link to your previous discussion?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thaksin resign when he's holding ALL the cards still? Highly unlikely, even with the threats from a dinosaur like Sanoh...

In the beginning, Sanoh was critical to Thaksin as a tool to attract the monied politicians. Rather than using his own money, he, like all political party heads, relies on the 'generiousity' of party donors... Sanoh has money, and so do his friends, so an alliance is born. Same story with Newin Chichob, and others...

Bringing in Sanoh was also the big clue that Thaksin's "I'll have no bad guys in my administration" went out the window, for pragmatic reasons which he later admitted to. I tend to doubt that Thaksin's earliest statements were the result of inexperienced thinking, for Thaksin is no stranger to politics...

Sanoh, having played out his role of financier and guard dog (ala Chalerm Yoobamrung) for TRT, is now having his 'KingMaker' role cut down to size by Thaksin and, so far, Thaksin is ahead on points, and Sanoh is left with blustering comments. Sanoh still has friends, but Thai politicians are notorious for following the winds, and the winds are still in Thaksin's favor, I feel, on all accounts... 50% of Sanohs group just jumped shit when Thaksin gave the bottom lines for them... His withdrawl of party support. The biggest club in his arsenal. 'Money Talks, Bullshit Walks' would be the perfect title for that story.

Who could replace him? Anybody. Most have never been their own men, anyway, but Thaksin is the first one elected democratically that has successfully manoeuvred himself into a position of bottom-line legal control of everything, including the constitution. All the power, ultimately, if he keeps singular control of the house...

As in the game King of the Hill, the object is to knock him on his ass. Lots of posturing means something could happen, but, based on recent history, it won't, it seems...

Still, never say never. It only took MP Suthep to take out Chuan's government. But then Chuan's government didn't control the Parlimentry Process or the Constitution, either.

Personally, I'd like to see Jaruvan Maintaka, and pray her christian guilt will keep her on track, as money checker.... Anand Panyarachun as PM, Khun Surin Pitsuwan as Foreign Minister, and Ajarn KhonNii as Minister of the Interior and all-around fixer

When I first moved here, I didn't have anything except Thai TV, and books and newspapers, for many years. I soon found the books and papers a much better way to spend my time, even keeping scrap books of interesting articles/photos on a variety of fronts.. A lot to keep from being bored, frankly. So many names had no meaning to me, but the stories and photos in the papers were often quite revealing windows on Thailand. Now, it's interesting to see the marriages and connections that occur here. Everyone seems 'related', either by blood or 'pii/nong' relationships... I find it entertaining and educational, mostly. A bit disappointing at times, too, but my own hopes and faith in Thailand still remain.

Yes, given the choice between glasses that are shit-coloured, or rose-coloured, I'll likely choose the rose-coloured glasses most times. Like TM said, it's all mostly out of our control here (to paraphrase), so no point in getting stuck in the shit constantly. Happiness is better than saddness, if there's a choice, and there has always been an alternative choice here, in my experience.

Edited May 29, 2005 by Ajarn

[Richard Hall]

Richard, The vast majority of postings here in TV.com are just such hypothetical ponderings (often referred to as 'opinions' by others). In your opinion, it sounds like you feel that since it's not in anyone's interest or benefit, then why bother coming here, right?

I still notice that both the folks in this thread complaining do plenty of such hypothetical pondering themselves in other threads, it seems. 

Well Ajarn, I think main reason for taking part in a forum is to obtain information and provide information that are of possible value and ideally based on knowledge and experiences. Also seeking advice from others when in doubt by discussing a subject and receive new possible overlooked angles of view.

Somehow it is kind of doubtful that there is any benefit from "what if...." topics because various unforeseeable circumstances need also to be taken into account to actually end up with reasonable and useful assumptions. Situations can change pretty quickly from one day to the other and what may holds true and is expectable today may suddenly change overnight and all that energy and hard effort put into hypothetical pondering turns out to have been totally in vain.

A natural or human caused disasters which we had examples of in not too distant past can turn everything upside down.

What if I had not taken that road where I ended up in a car accident, what if I never had come to Thailand, what if my wife cheats on me, what if all foreigners get kicked out of Thailand tomorrow, what if a meteorite stricks the world tomorrow, what if I hit the jackpot next week...

Sitting in front of the computer screen and engage in hypothesis and facing the exact situation in real life are two totally different shoes. Also usually things tend to turn out always differently than one ever predicted.

What a waste of brain power not really getting anyone anywhere. Isn't it better to deal with actual true life situations and get prepared for them? Tax payment is due at the beginning of next month, staying permit expires in a few weeks or there is no beer left in the refrigerator. Rather cope with those duly rather than pondering what you gonna do if you have overstayed or if you run out of Singh and it is Visakha Bucha Day.

But last but not least to benefit this thread and swim in the hypthetical stream here my answer to the initial question: "If Khun Thaksin resigns in one month he will be replaced by another person and the sun will still rise the same way over Thailand (or replace with Siam at your own discretion) as it did the month before". Nothing less nothing more can be expected.

Nevertheless, I keep firmly believing that facts beat hypotheses.

Just a thought and my own personal unimportant opinion.

Cheers,

Richard

[chownah]

Richard, The vast majority of postings here in TV.com are just such hypothetical ponderings (often referred to as 'opinions' by others). In your opinion, it sounds like you feel that since it's not in anyone's interest or benefit, then why bother coming here, right?

I still notice that both the folks in this thread complaining do plenty of such hypothetical pondering themselves in other threads, it seems. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well Ajarn, I think main reason for taking part in a forum is to obtain information and provide information that are of possible value and ideally based on knowledge and experiences. Also seeking advice from others when in doubt by discussing a subject and receive new possible overlooked angles of view.

Somehow it is kind of doubtful that there is any benefit from "what if...." topics because various unforeseeable circumstances need also to be taken into account to actually end up with reasonable and useful assumptions. Situations can change pretty quickly from one day to the other and what may holds true and is expectable today may suddenly change overnight and all that energy and hard effort put into hypothetical pondering turns out to have been totally in vain.

A natural or human caused disasters which we had examples of in not too distant past can turn everything upside down.

What if I had not taken that road where I ended up in a car accident, what if I never had come to Thailand, what if my wife cheats on me, what if all foreigners get kicked out of Thailand tomorrow, what if a meteorite stricks the world tomorrow, what if I hit the jackpot next week...

Sitting in front of the computer screen and engage in hypothesis and facing the exact situation in real life are two totally different shoes. Also usually things tend to turn out always differently than one ever predicted.

What a waste of brain power not really getting anyone anywhere. Isn't it better to deal with actual true life situations and get prepared for them? Tax payment is due at the beginning of next month, staying permit expires in a few weeks or there is no beer left in the refrigerator. Rather cope with those duly rather than pondering what you gonna do if you have overstayed or if you run out of Singh and it is Visakha Bucha Day.

But last but not least to benefit this thread and swim in the hypthetical stream here my answer to the initial question: "If Khun Thaksin resigns in one month he will be replaced by another person and the sun will still rise the same way over Thailand (or replace with Siam at your own discretion) as it did the month before". Nothing less nothing more can be expected.

Nevertheless, I keep firmly believing that facts beat hypotheses.

Just a thought and my own personal unimportant opinion.

Cheers,

Richard

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If Bush (the president of the USA) resigned in one month it is easy to hypothesize what would happen. I guess because the USA is a gov't of laws...primarily and predictable political processes. In the USA there are abundant political analysts and they are constantly keeping an eye on the political process and how the popularity of people and ideas is waxing and waning. If you asked any of these political analysts what would happen if Bush resigned in one month, many of them would gladly answer this 'what if' question. But, to each his own. They would gladly answer these questions and you would not. You are saying that things in Thailand are too chaotic for you to be able to predict what would happen and you find it a waste of time to discuss what parameters make this 'what if' scenerio so unpredictable. Fair 'nuff.

[Ajarn]

Oops. Misread the post...

Edited May 29, 2005 by Ajarn

[Richard Hall]

If Bush (the president of the USA) resigned in one month it is easy to hypothesize what would happen. I guess because the USA is a gov't of laws...primarily and predictable political processes. In the USA there are abundant political analysts and they are constantly keeping an eye on the political process and how the popularity of people and ideas is waxing and waning. If you asked any of these political analysts what would happen if Bush resigned in one month, many of them would gladly answer this 'what if' question. But, to each his own. They would gladly answer these questions and you would not. You are saying that things in Thailand are too chaotic for you to be able to predict what would happen and you find it a waste of time to discuss what parameters make this 'what if' scenerio so unpredictable. Fair 'nuff.

Interesting and indeed amazing post beyond any of my expectations. Normally I know what I' m saying and also why but well, if I am supposed to have said "in Thailand things are too chaotic for me to be able to predict..." I gotta suffer on Alzheimer or maybe it's just my poor command of the English language 'coz I absolutely cannot relate myself to this statement.

Okay let's rephrase and ease it a little bit. I'm just a human being and like any other of this species my predictions are just as useful as spitting against the wind. Therefore, I do not believe in the "skills" of fortune tellers nor in political analysts, economists or whatever type of hypothetical "experts" roam this planet independant from their nationality. A theorist is usually a person excellent in showing off as a rhetorical ace but if it comes to simple practical real life excercises such as finding the own butt with both hands well, darn that has never been taught in university.

Predictions may gain quite a bit in value if there are based on fundamentals rather than pure assumptions. Well, let me give you an example. You brought up the case of a certain president in a country other than Thailand and raised the "what if" question which I will try to answer by relying on facts. "If the said case happens the IQ level in government will temporarily drop by about 100 points max." End of my analysis over to the "experts".

Again back to the original subject. If Khun Thaksin resigned in one month NOTHING of significance would change. Why do I dare to say that? Well, it's a pretty simple conclusion. If there is a regular change in leadership by let's say an election changes, if at all, usually occur on a very slow path. Can only imagine of a very drastic change namely in case of a military coup or at very best if Peter Pan or a look alike of Saddam will take over from Khun Thaksin.

Or have those aforementioned politcial analysts some inside information by their never failling intelligence office such as despite being in arrest a former dictator is eyeing to gain leadership in a country famous for rice exports and magnificient smiles?

Where do we stand now with the results of this thread and what actions are supposed to be taken. If the hypothetical case occurs what we are supposed to do? Run for our lives, look for a new home, chaos, disaster or paradise on earth with goodies such as visa good for ten years, right of landownership for foreigners...?

Once there was an African county practising horrible apartheid policies for decades but then this nightmare was over. Justice moved in and a man of the peoples took over and the road to a much better live was supposed to be paved over night. A justified assumption when the devil leaves and the angel moves in, isn't it? What's your theory on this?

With heaps of regards to the rural part of LOS from the restless capital.

Richard

[Thomas_Merton]

....

If Bush (the president of the USA) resigned in one month it is easy to hypothesize what would happen.  I guess because the USA is a gov't of laws...primarily and predictable political processes.  In the USA there are abundant political analysts and they are constantly keeping an eye on the political process and how the popularity of people and ideas is waxing and waning.  If you asked any of these political analysts what would happen if Bush resigned in one month, many of them would gladly answer this 'what if' question.  But, to each his own.  They would gladly answer these questions and you would not.  You are saying that things in Thailand are too chaotic for you  to be able to predict what would happen and you find it a waste of time to discuss what parameters make this 'what if' scenerio so unpredictable. Fair 'nuff.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

With all due respect, LOS is not the United States of America.

It is the Kingdom of Thailand.

As forum rules state, categorically:

No disrespect of the King of Thailand or The Thai Royal Family! Discussion of topics concerning the King or other current or deceased members of the Thai Royal Family is forbidden.

It is therefore I say, IMHO, this is an impossible thread to discuss here, because there are matters, events and possible actions, the nature of which are way beyond the remit of Thaivisa.

[The_Moog]

QUOTE

No disrespect of the King of Thailand or The Thai Royal Family! Discussion of topics concerning the King or other current or deceased members of the Thai Royal Family is forbidden.

It is therefore I say, IMHO, this is an impossible thread to discuss here, because there are matters, events and possible actions, the nature of which are way beyond the remit of Thaivisa.

Not talking about the Royals, talking about Thaksin....and even thought he's coated with Teflon , it is far from implausible that he could get tabbed with something that means he loses his job..

Who takes over ----which of the 10 Deputy PMs ? Or a new election? Its a fair question

This is a good topic Thomas. If every hypothetical topic was removed, there would be no 'what ifs ' at all. 'Gay for a day' is equally hypothethical. This topic breaks NO rules.

[chownah]

QUOTE

No disrespect of the King of Thailand or The Thai Royal Family! Discussion of topics concerning the King or other current or deceased members of the Thai Royal Family is forbidden.

It is therefore I say, IMHO, this is an impossible thread to discuss here, because there are matters, events and possible actions, the nature of which are way beyond the remit of Thaivisa.

Not talking about the Royals, talking about Thaksin....and even thought he's coated with Teflon , it is far from implausible that he could get tabbed with something that means he loses his job..

Who takes over ----which of the 10 Deputy PMs ? Or a new election? Its a fair question

This is a good topic Thomas. If every hypothetical topic was removed, there would be no 'what ifs ' at all. 'Gay for a day' is equally hypothethical. This topic breaks NO rules.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ah, you are an oasis in the wilderness. Back to the topic, and moving in the direction you have initiated....So if Thaksin was gone all of a sudden, who would immediately take over the PM's duties? Is there a Vice PM? Would elections be called? Would TRT just elect another PM?

[The_Moog]

So if Thaksin was gone all of a sudden, who would immediately take over the PM's duties? Is there a Vice PM? Would elections be called? Would TRT just elect another PM?

Many factions in TRT.......I think they would try to carry on in Government - one of the many Deputies takes over - then the factions squabble, break up the party and call new elections.

Take about a year.

Given the nature of Thailand and the recent history of its democracy, there are certain influences and possible actions that simply cannot be discussed on Thaivisa.

This is a Free country, where people are allowed luckily to talk about these things. Just check out the Nation and Bangkok Post.

Constitutional matters (with the exception of the Royal family) and political matters can be discussed openly in Thailand, without fear of jail or censorship.

Edited May 29, 2005 by The_Moog

[Thomas_Merton]

QUOTE

No disrespect of the King of Thailand or The Thai Royal Family! Discussion of topics concerning the King or other current or deceased members of the Thai Royal Family is forbidden.

It is therefore I say, IMHO, this is an impossible thread to discuss here, because there are matters, events and possible actions, the nature of which are way beyond the remit of Thaivisa.

Not talking about the Royals, talking about Thaksin....and even thought he's coated with Teflon , it is far from implausible that he could get tabbed with something that means he loses his job..

Who takes over ----which of the 10 Deputy PMs ? Or a new election? Its a fair question

This is a good topic Thomas. If every hypothetical topic was removed, there would be no 'what ifs ' at all. 'Gay for a day' is equally hypothethical. This topic breaks NO rules.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It is not the hypothetical nature of the topic that is problematic.

Given the nature of Thailand and the recent history of its democracy, there are certain influences and possible actions that simply cannot be discussed on Thaivisa.

Discuss all you will, but denying the influence within the nature of the state, does not help to legitimise any conclusions reached.

[The Gentleman Scamp]

For one month most of the poor people would not believe whatever he said and most of the rich people would not have a leader to dislike.

I am not Thai so I don't care, he is good for Thailand but bad for us farangs which is why most of us dislike him which, although being selfish, is a little understandable but at the end of the day it's not our country and we have no right to say who should lead it.

I wonder if his replacement would have such a flat heat, he brings a whole new meaning to the term - level headedness.