Thai Protesters Defy State Of Emergency

[ChiangMaiThai]

well I;m still watching the red channel - and without a proxy server. If you have internet and want to watch it, its not difficult. Before they move in, I'm sure they will kill the signal. Could be a sad day for Thailand.

[WillArzonia]

"......forcibly entering government buildings is not an appropriate means of protest."

Number one, who cares what the US Govt. says. Their double-standard in the way they treated the Honduras coup from the Thailand coup makes their pronouncement meaningless.

Was there a coup in Honduras? Did USA treat Thailand differently?

Yes and no

[Indo-Siam]

Here is how I see the big picture:

The real UDD Red Shirt power brokers are about 20 persons, with maybe 80 more second tier players. They could care less about Democracy - they want power - for themselves. They are probably happy to take Thaksin's money, but would prefer that he not return.

There are then four cadres of important operatives below the top tier. These are the folks who received intense training over the past year. One cadre is the Red Shirt Republican Guard - young, smart, strong, disciplined - who were trained to maintain order within Red Shirts mobs, and restrain overenthusiastic "soldier ants". These guards never participated directly in the "incidents" - they just hovered on the edges of all activities, policing the Red Shirt thugs, to keep them from going overboard. The second cadre were the cell or team leaders for the "rent a mob" - who acted as paymasters, and through whom all instructions passed. They were trained to recruit teams, and arrange for them to get to the main rally site in Bangkok.

There was also another cadre - a shadowy logistics group who arranged for food, water, toilets, electricity, etc. They did a good job. The fourth cadre were the PR and media people - printing shirts, banners, running radio and TV stations, handling the press, and orchestrating the stage/lighting/sound systems.

All of the above were well financed, and not at all "down-trodden peasants." These were smooth manipulators.

You then had two sets of totally expendable "grunts". One group were the photogenic, smiling rice farmer peasants - women, old people, children - waving and smiling, and banging their clackers. Rural folk with nothing to do back home, being paid daily what they would otherwise be unable to earn in a month. Clueless about the deep politics - all they know is Thaksin and TRT/PPP/PTP. Contrary to how they were portrayed - they were really just one thing: human shields for the fighters. They also projected a populist multitude - but their only real function was as human shields to protect the fighters from being engaged.

The final set of grunts were the thugs - mostly from Bangkok - the motorcycle taxi drivers, taxicab drivers, security guards, construction workers. These were the "muscle" who executed all of the stunts and incidents. Operating alone, they would have been shut down at every turn. But - at each event, they were blended into groups of human shield "innocents" - making them difficult to engage.

There was one other population involved - that being sincere Bangkokians who either loved Thaksin, or simply feel solidarity with the claimed Red Shirt objective of "cleaning up" Thai politics, and encouraging economic justice. They were a fortuitous bonus to the Red Shirt leaders - more smiling, well-behaved human shields.

Bottom line: All of the "cannon fodder" low-level players were just pawns being duped by the Red Shirt power brokers. There isn't a snowball's chance in hel_l that the Red Shirt leaders will ever deliver any significant change to their lives. They were simply used by the Red Shirts Dons to create "space" for the insurrectionists to carry out their thuggery.

Frankly - the overall Red Shirt plan, and execution, were masterful. They actually invented out of nothing a winning - even textbook quality - strategy for carrying out a diplomatic coup - executed by an overall force that was miniscule, in relation to the population of the actual electorate - within an urban environment.

I consider the ends that they support to be completely unworthy - but the execution was really quite masterful. And - I suspect - by tomorrow, they will emerge victorious.

Edited April 8, 2010 by Indo-Siam

[WillArzonia]

This is a joke. I think by now the government has lost credibility completely. They talk 3 or 4 time on TV claiming of actions, etc.

And now they are all hiding in safe places while people near these idiots Red Shirt are still suffering.

Mr. Ahbisit just resign and let someone who can run government takeover,

Sub-contract the task to the Burmese Generals

Then you and all your friends would be out of here -- what a glib comment with no understanding of what your comment actually means. Yeah, let a bunch of brutal old men who have no compunction about killing anyone in charge and that would solve the problem in Thailand. You are sick ... or just incredibly stupid

[anotherpeter]

The SOE actually gives more control of the army/police to the government. Under the ISA, it was the army's/police's decisions in what to do, and they didn't want to be the cause of any violence.

Under the SOE, the cabinet now makes the decisions. The army/police won't be the cause of anything, it now falls on the cabinet.

Anyway, that's how it was explained to me by someone who had it explained to them by one of the ministers.

That is how I understand it, although I would add that under the SOE the government can skip the police and give orders directly to the military. Of course, at the end of the day, the military may not obey. Anupong refused to disperse the PAD when Samak ordered him to. Hence, the decision to act or not act is ultimately up to the military.

Was there a SOE under Samak (or Somchai then wasn't it?) Did the SOE (if in effect) mean that the army weren't liable if they followed Samak/Somchai's orders?

If there was no SOE or the SOE didn't protect the army for following Samak/Somchai's orders, then that would be why they didn't go in to disperse them.

[Thai at Heart]

Here is how I see the big picture:

The real UDD Red Shirt power brokers are about 20 persons, with maybe 80 more second tier players. They could care less about Democracy - they want power - for themselves. They are probably happy to take Thaksin's money, but would prefer that he not return.

There are then four cadres of important operatives below the top tier. These are the folks who received intense training over the past year. One cadre is the Red Shirt Republican Guard - young, smart, strong, disciplined - who were trained to maintain order within Red Shirts mobs, and restrain overenthusiastic "soldier ants". These guards never participated directly in the "incidents" - they just hovered on the edges of all activities, policing the Red Shirt thugs, to keep them from going overboard. The second cadre were the cell or team leaders for the "rent a mob" - who acted as paymasters, and through whom all instructions passed. They were trained to recruit teams, and arrange for them to get to the main rally site in Bangkok.

There was also another cadre - a shadowy logistics group who arranged for food, water, toilets, electricity, etc. They did a good job. The fourth cadre were the PR and media people - printing shirts, banners, running radio and TV stations, handling the press, and orchestrating the stage/lighting/sound systems.

All of the above were well financed, and not at all "down-trodden peasants." These were smooth manipulators.

You then had two sets of totally expendable "grunts". One group were the photogenic, smiling rice farmer peasants - women, old people, children - waving and smiling, and banging their clackers. Rural folk with nothing to do back home, being paid daily what they would otherwise be unable to earn in a month. Clueless about the deep politics - all they know is Thaksin and TRT/PPP/PTP. Contrary to how they were portrayed - they were really just one thing: human shields for the fighters. They also projected a populist multitude - but their only real function was as human shields to protect the fighters from being engaged.

The final set of grunts were the thugs - mostly from Bangkok - the motorcycle taxi drivers, taxicab drivers, security guards, construction workers. These were the "muscle" who executed all of the stunts and incidents. Operating alone, they would have been shut down at every turn. But - at each event, they were blended into groups of human shield "innocents" - making them difficult to engage.

There was one other population involved - that being sincere Bangkokians who either loved Thaksin, or simply feel solidarity with the claimed Red Shirt objective of "cleaning up" Thai politics, and encouraging economic justice. They were a fortuitous bonus to the Red Shirt leaders - more smiling, well-behaved human shields.

Bottom line: All of the "cannon fodder" low-level players were just pawns being duped by the Red Shirt power brokers. There isn't a snowball's chance in hel_l that the Red Shirt leaders will ever deliver any significant change to their lives. They were simply used by the Red Shirts Dons to create "space" for the insurrectionists to carry out their thuggery.

Frankly - the overall Red Shirt plan, and execution, were masterful. They actually invented out of nothing a winning - even textbook quality - strategy for carrying out a diplomatic coup - executed by an overall force that was miniscule, in relation to the population of the actual electorate - within an urban environment.

I consider the ends that they support to be completely unworthy - but the execution was really quite masterful. And - I suspect - by tomorrow, they will emerge victorious.

If true, very interesting. It would be interesting to know some specific names, but for now, that can wait.

Maybe Sondhi dropped his playbook on the way to the airport.

[anotherpeter]

Here is how I see the big picture:

<snip>

I consider the ends that they support to be completely unworthy - but the execution was really quite masterful. And - I suspect - by tomorrow, they will emerge victorious.

Excellent analysis.

But I think this will be going on for a few days yet, and IMO they will be going home empty handed.

Edited April 8, 2010 by anotherpeter

[Thai at Heart]

The SOE actually gives more control of the army/police to the government. Under the ISA, it was the army's/police's decisions in what to do, and they didn't want to be the cause of any violence.

Under the SOE, the cabinet now makes the decisions. The army/police won't be the cause of anything, it now falls on the cabinet.

Anyway, that's how it was explained to me by someone who had it explained to them by one of the ministers.

That is how I understand it, although I would add that under the SOE the government can skip the police and give orders directly to the military. Of course, at the end of the day, the military may not obey. Anupong refused to disperse the PAD when Samak ordered him to. Hence, the decision to act or not act is ultimately up to the military.

Was there a SOE under Samak (or Somchai then wasn't it?) Did the SOE (if in effect) mean that the army weren't liable if they followed Samak/Somchai's orders?

If there was no SOE or the SOE didn't protect the army for following Samak/Somchai's orders, then that would be why they didn't go in to disperse them.

As far as I understand, the army refused the order.

The ISA (and the SOE if I understand) gives immunity to actions committed by the army, and essentially under the ISA the army is running the show wherever the ISA is in force. All members of government have to carry out the army's orders under the ISA. The army can command all government agencies under the ISA. What changes under an SOE I don't know.

[WillArzonia]

Here is how I see the big picture:

The real UDD Red Shirt power brokers are about 20 persons, with maybe 80 more second tier players. They could care less about Democracy - they want power - for themselves. They are probably happy to take Thaksin's money, but would prefer that he not return.

There are then four cadres of important operatives below the top tier. These are the folks who received intense training over the past year. One cadre is the Red Shirt Republican Guard - young, smart, strong, disciplined - who were trained to maintain order within Red Shirts mobs, and restrain overenthusiastic "soldier ants". These guards never participated directly in the "incidents" - they just hovered on the edges of all activities, policing the Red Shirt thugs, to keep them from going overboard. The second cadre were the cell or team leaders for the "rent a mob" - who acted as paymasters, and through whom all instructions passed. They were trained to recruit teams, and arrange for them to get to the main rally site in Bangkok.

There was also another cadre - a shadowy logistics group who arranged for food, water, toilets, electricity, etc. They did a good job. The fourth cadre were the PR and media people - printing shirts, banners, running radio and TV stations, handling the press, and orchestrating the stage/lighting/sound systems.

All of the above were well financed, and not at all "down-trodden peasants." These were smooth manipulators.

You then had two sets of totally expendable "grunts". One group were the photogenic, smiling rice farmer peasants - women, old people, children - waving and smiling, and banging their clackers. Rural folk with nothing to do back home, being paid daily what they would otherwise be unable to earn in a month. Clueless about the deep politics - all they know is Thaksin and TRT/PPP/PTP. Contrary to how they were portrayed - they were really just one thing: human shields for the fighters. They also projected a populist multitude - but their only real function was as human shields to protect the fighters from being engaged.

The final set of grunts were the thugs - mostly from Bangkok - the motorcycle taxi drivers, taxicab drivers, security guards, construction workers. These were the "muscle" who executed all of the stunts and incidents. Operating alone, they would have been shut down at every turn. But - at each event, they were blended into groups of human shield "innocents" - making them difficult to engage.

There was one other population involved - that being sincere Bangkokians who either loved Thaksin, or simply feel solidarity with the claimed Red Shirt objective of "cleaning up" Thai politics, and encouraging economic justice. They were a fortuitous bonus to the Red Shirt leaders - more smiling, well-behaved human shields.

Bottom line: All of the "cannon fodder" low-level players were just pawns being duped by the Red Shirt power brokers. There isn't a snowball's chance in hel_l that the Red Shirt leaders will ever deliver any significant change to their lives. They were simply used by the Red Shirts Dons to create "space" for the insurrectionists to carry out their thuggery.

Frankly - the overall Red Shirt plan, and execution, were masterful. They actually invented out of nothing a winning - even textbook quality - strategy for carrying out a diplomatic coup - executed by an overall force that was miniscule, in relation to the population of the actual electorate - within an urban environment.

I consider the ends that they support to be completely unworthy - but the execution was really quite masterful. And - I suspect - by tomorrow, they will emerge victorious.

This is about as accurate an analysis as I have seen anywhere. This is great organizing and, if it was done for real people progress, would be fantastic. Unfortunately, it's been done for profit

[animatic]

Here is how I see the big picture:

The real UDD Red Shirt power brokers are about 20 persons, with maybe 80 more second tier players. They could care less about Democracy - they want power - for themselves. They are probably happy to take Thaksin's money, but would prefer that he not return.

There are then four cadres of important operatives below the top tier. These are the folks who received intense training over the past year. One cadre is the Red Shirt Republican Guard - young, smart, strong, disciplined - who were trained to maintain order within Red Shirts mobs, and restrain overenthusiastic "soldier ants". These guards never participated directly in the "incidents" - they just hovered on the edges of all activities, policing the Red Shirt thugs, to keep them from going overboard. The second cadre were the cell or team leaders for the "rent a mob" - who acted as paymasters, and through whom all instructions passed. They were trained to recruit teams, and arrange for them to get to the main rally site in Bangkok.

There was also another cadre - a shadowy logistics group who arranged for food, water, toilets, electricity, etc. They did a good job. The fourth cadre were the PR and media people - printing shirts, banners, running radio and TV stations, handling the press, and orchestrating the stage/lighting/sound systems.

All of the above were well financed, and not at all "down-trodden peasants." These were smooth manipulators.

You then had two sets of totally expendable "grunts". One group were the photogenic, smiling rice farmer peasants - women, old people, children - waving and smiling, and banging their clackers. Rural folk with nothing to do back home, being paid daily what they would otherwise be unable to earn in a month. Clueless about the deep politics - all they know is Thaksin and TRT/PPP/PTP. Contrary to how they were portrayed - they were really just one thing: human shields for the fighters. They also projected a populist multitude - but their only real function was as human shields to protect the fighters from being engaged.

The final set of grunts were the thugs - mostly from Bangkok - the motorcycle taxi drivers, taxicab drivers, security guards, construction workers. These were the "muscle" who executed all of the stunts and incidents. Operating alone, they would have been shut down at every turn. But - at each event, they were blended into groups of human shield "innocents" - making them difficult to engage.

There was one other population involved - that being sincere Bangkokians who either loved Thaksin, or simply feel solidarity with the claimed Red Shirt objective of "cleaning up" Thai politics, and encouraging economic justice. They were a fortuitous bonus to the Red Shirt leaders - more smiling, well-behaved human shields.

Bottom line: All of the "cannon fodder" low-level players were just pawns being duped by the Red Shirt power brokers. There isn't a snowball's chance in hel_l that the Red Shirt leaders will ever deliver any significant change to their lives. They were simply used by the Red Shirts Dons to create "space" for the insurrectionists to carry out their thuggery.

Frankly - the overall Red Shirt plan, and execution, were masterful. They actually invented out of nothing a winning - even textbook quality - strategy for carrying out a diplomatic coup - executed by an overall force that was miniscule, in relation to the population of the actual electorate - within an urban environment.

I consider the ends that they support to be completely unworthy - but the execution was really quite masterful. And - I suspect - by tomorrow, they will emerge victorious.

Excellent post.

Well all before the last comma...

I can hear the screaming at it already winding up.

Edited April 8, 2010 by animatic

[Brocher]

Here is how I see the big picture:

The real UDD Red Shirt power brokers are about 20 persons, with maybe 80 more second tier players. They could care less about Democracy - they want power - for themselves. They are probably happy to take Thaksin's money, but would prefer that he not return.

There are then four cadres of important operatives below the top tier. These are the folks who received intense training over the past year. One cadre is the Red Shirt Republican Guard - young, smart, strong, disciplined - who were trained to maintain order within Red Shirts mobs, and restrain overenthusiastic "soldier ants". These guards never participated directly in the "incidents" - they just hovered on the edges of all activities, policing the Red Shirt thugs, to keep them from going overboard. The second cadre were the cell or team leaders for the "rent a mob" - who acted as paymasters, and through whom all instructions passed. They were trained to recruit teams, and arrange for them to get to the main rally site in Bangkok.

There was also another cadre - a shadowy logistics group who arranged for food, water, toilets, electricity, etc. They did a good job. The fourth cadre were the PR and media people - printing shirts, banners, running radio and TV stations, handling the press, and orchestrating the stage/lighting/sound systems.

All of the above were well financed, and not at all "down-trodden peasants." These were smooth manipulators.

You then had two sets of totally expendable "grunts". One group were the photogenic, smiling rice farmer peasants - women, old people, children - waving and smiling, and banging their clackers. Rural folk with nothing to do back home, being paid daily what they would otherwise be unable to earn in a month. Clueless about the deep politics - all they know is Thaksin and TRT/PPP/PTP. Contrary to how they were portrayed - they were really just one thing: human shields for the fighters. They also projected a populist multitude - but their only real function was as human shields to protect the fighters from being engaged.

The final set of grunts were the thugs - mostly from Bangkok - the motorcycle taxi drivers, taxicab drivers, security guards, construction workers. These were the "muscle" who executed all of the stunts and incidents. Operating alone, they would have been shut down at every turn. But - at each event, they were blended into groups of human shield "innocents" - making them difficult to engage.

There was one other population involved - that being sincere Bangkokians who either loved Thaksin, or simply feel solidarity with the claimed Red Shirt objective of "cleaning up" Thai politics, and encouraging economic justice. They were a fortuitous bonus to the Red Shirt leaders - more smiling, well-behaved human shields.

Bottom line: All of the "cannon fodder" low-level players were just pawns being duped by the Red Shirt power brokers. There isn't a snowball's chance in hel_l that the Red Shirt leaders will ever deliver any significant change to their lives. They were simply used by the Red Shirts Dons to create "space" for the insurrectionists to carry out their thuggery.

Frankly - the overall Red Shirt plan, and execution, were masterful. They actually invented out of nothing a winning - even textbook quality - strategy for carrying out a diplomatic coup - executed by an overall force that was miniscule, in relation to the population of the actual electorate - within an urban environment.

I consider the ends that they support to be completely unworthy - but the execution was really quite masterful. And - I suspect - by tomorrow, they will emerge victorious.

An excellent description of the present situation but I don't agree with your conclusion the Red Shirts will emerge victorious. The government is being led by a very capable and decent PM who has sensibly refused to be drawn into violent reaction and as a result the Red Shirts are becoming more and more frustrated and angry that they have been unable to provoke retaliation. As pointed out by a young student, reasonable people who were originally sympathetic to the cause of the rural poor are not happy with the increasingly violent and disruptive tactics of the Red Shirt mobs. I don't see them winning the current struggle politically or physically and Thaksin is now seen abroad in his true light as a corrupt egocentric bully.

[Redsunset]

This is a joke. I think by now the government has lost credibility completely. They talk 3 or 4 time on TV claiming of actions, etc.

And now they are all hiding in safe places while people near these idiots Red Shirt are still suffering.

Mr. Ahbisit just resign and let someone who can run government takeover,

Sub-contract the task to the Burmese Generals

Then you and all your friends would be out of here -- what a glib comment with no understanding of what your comment actually means. Yeah, let a bunch of brutal old men who have no compunction about killing anyone in charge and that would solve the problem in Thailand. You are sick ... or just incredibly stupid

Will, I think your response to the original post is a bit harsh. I, too, believe that the government has lost credibility. Certainly when you come out several times in words and deeds that you are going to control and prevent the protesters from disrupting life in Bangkok and then back down, you lose credibility. For example, restricting the red shirts from 11 areas in Bangkok, and then letting them frolick and block some of these areas... banning meetings of over five people, then allowing thousands to still gather and bash the governement. This is unacceptable...

The HUMAN SHIELD post is accurate. I can't speak for that poster's description of the hierarchy of red shirt management, but for sure, mixing old people, women and children has got to be a huge deterrent in using force. Thaksin's plan to use these people in the protest is brilliant, although I'm sure it just happened and he did not plan it out.

Here is a solution... why not just turn Rajprasong into a tourist walking street like Patpong? (Just kidding folks!)

[Redsunset]

Women, children, old folks.... all human shields... that is why the military and police will not use violence. The pictures circulating around the world would be disasterous for individuals and the country, including Abhisit. I don't blame the guy for delaying... but he should still take action.... do what it takes to take down the trouble-makers. Arrest the leaders. I'm sure they have to sleep at night and I'm sure the military can find a creative way of making it happen. It's not like they are hiding out like Osama bin Laden.

[Redsunset]

Will Thaksin make it back to Thailand???

I know the women, children and old folks are preventing the governement from forcefully dispersing the crowds, but if it does not do something, we might as well have the red shirts running this country. They would put a welcome mat out at the airport for Thaksin. Then the proverbial sh*t would hit the fan, as the yellow shirts would have to play the role of enforcement of the State of Emergency government. Still, the man might be booking his flight from who knows where back to Suvarnabhumi as I type this!

[BKjohn]

"Leaders of the tens of thousands of supporters of ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra"

The domestic media ongoing attempt to diminish this Democracy movement to being an exclusive Thaksin thing never abates.

"I want to warn those who want to crack down on democracy protesters"

But they are Thaksin followers.....I am confused?

"several senior government figures to be airlifted to safety".

The Red Shirts are speaking loudly about weapons being found in the Parliament and Suthep's car.......

"Tourist chiefs and business leaders have urged the demonstrators to end their action"

They are from the Amataya. I wouldn't expect anything else.

"......forcibly entering government buildings is not an appropriate means of protest."

Number one, who cares what the US Govt. says. Their double-standard in the way they treated the Honduras coup from the Thailand coup makes their pronouncement meaningless.

"The Red Shirts say the government is illegitimate because it came to power with army backing through a parliamentary vote"

Right.....so lets get off this self-serving nine-month pedestal and get serious.

"The mainly poor and rural followers of Thaksin"

Where do the thousands of Bangkokians who support the Reds, and all the monks fit into this demographic description. Or is this narrow demographic description designed to be discreditting. You be the judge.[

\----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You must be a red shirt supporter with a serious lack of IQ - those thousands of red shirt supporters in Bangkok are Isaanies who happen to be in Bangkok as motorcycle taxi or some taxidrivers, cleaners etc. cheering their mates from home.

The red shirts have nothing at all to do with democracy since they are being paid to demonstrate by Mr. T and have been paid in the past to vote for him in the first place. If anything, they are the poison that causes democracy not to work here.

The government came to power with army backing because a coup had just stopped Mr. T from turning Thailand into his own private country with him as president for life - get your facts right - facts do not lie - if you do not understand his financial manipulations - example - the government under him buys land for 2.4 billion baht and than sells the same land a few weeks later to his wife for 800 Million - if you do not see anything fishy here , well move to Isaan because there they don't seem to ........ of well, lets stay polite ...

[saintofsilence]

"Leaders of the tens of thousands of supporters of ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra"

The domestic media ongoing attempt to diminish this Democracy movement to being an exclusive Thaksin thing never abates.

"I want to warn those who want to crack down on democracy protesters"

But they are Thaksin followers.....I am confused?

"several senior government figures to be airlifted to safety".

The Red Shirts are speaking loudly about weapons being found in the Parliament and Suthep's car.......

"Tourist chiefs and business leaders have urged the demonstrators to end their action"

They are from the Amataya. I wouldn't expect anything else.

"......forcibly entering government buildings is not an appropriate means of protest."

Number one, who cares what the US Govt. says. Their double-standard in the way they treated the Honduras coup from the Thailand coup makes their pronouncement meaningless.

"The Red Shirts say the government is illegitimate because it came to power with army backing through a parliamentary vote"

Right.....so lets get off this self-serving nine-month pedestal and get serious.

"The mainly poor and rural followers of Thaksin"

Where do the thousands of Bangkokians who support the Reds, and all the monks fit into this demographic description. Or is this narrow demographic description designed to be discreditting. You be the judge.[

\----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You must be a red shirt supporter with a serious lack of IQ - those thousands of red shirt supporters in Bangkok are Isaanies who happen to be in Bangkok as motorcycle taxi or some taxidrivers, cleaners etc. cheering their mates from home.

The red shirts have nothing at all to do with democracy since they are being paid to demonstrate by Mr. T and have been paid in the past to vote for him in the first place. If anything, they are the poison that causes democracy not to work here.

The government came to power with army backing because a coup had just stopped Mr. T from turning Thailand into his own private country with him as president for life - get your facts right - facts do not lie - if you do not understand his financial manipulations - example - the government under him buys land for 2.4 billion baht and than sells the same land a few weeks later to his wife for 800 Million - if you do not see anything fishy here , well move to Isaan because there they don't seem to ........ of well, lets stay polite ...

Well said

[Insight]

Here is how I see the big picture:

The real UDD Red Shirt power brokers are about 20 persons, with maybe 80 more second tier players. They could care less about Democracy - they want power - for themselves. They are probably happy to take Thaksin's money, but would prefer that he not return.

There are then four cadres of important operatives below the top tier. These are the folks who received intense training over the past year. One cadre is the Red Shirt Republican Guard - young, smart, strong, disciplined - who were trained to maintain order within Red Shirts mobs, and restrain overenthusiastic "soldier ants". These guards never participated directly in the "incidents" - they just hovered on the edges of all activities, policing the Red Shirt thugs, to keep them from going overboard. The second cadre were the cell or team leaders for the "rent a mob" - who acted as paymasters, and through whom all instructions passed. They were trained to recruit teams, and arrange for them to get to the main rally site in Bangkok.

There was also another cadre - a shadowy logistics group who arranged for food, water, toilets, electricity, etc. They did a good job. The fourth cadre were the PR and media people - printing shirts, banners, running radio and TV stations, handling the press, and orchestrating the stage/lighting/sound systems.

All of the above were well financed, and not at all "down-trodden peasants." These were smooth manipulators.

You then had two sets of totally expendable "grunts". One group were the photogenic, smiling rice farmer peasants - women, old people, children - waving and smiling, and banging their clackers. Rural folk with nothing to do back home, being paid daily what they would otherwise be unable to earn in a month. Clueless about the deep politics - all they know is Thaksin and TRT/PPP/PTP. Contrary to how they were portrayed - they were really just one thing: human shields for the fighters. They also projected a populist multitude - but their only real function was as human shields to protect the fighters from being engaged.

The final set of grunts were the thugs - mostly from Bangkok - the motorcycle taxi drivers, taxicab drivers, security guards, construction workers. These were the "muscle" who executed all of the stunts and incidents. Operating alone, they would have been shut down at every turn. But - at each event, they were blended into groups of human shield "innocents" - making them difficult to engage.

There was one other population involved - that being sincere Bangkokians who either loved Thaksin, or simply feel solidarity with the claimed Red Shirt objective of "cleaning up" Thai politics, and encouraging economic justice. They were a fortuitous bonus to the Red Shirt leaders - more smiling, well-behaved human shields.

Bottom line: All of the "cannon fodder" low-level players were just pawns being duped by the Red Shirt power brokers. There isn't a snowball's chance in hel_l that the Red Shirt leaders will ever deliver any significant change to their lives. They were simply used by the Red Shirts Dons to create "space" for the insurrectionists to carry out their thuggery.

Frankly - the overall Red Shirt plan, and execution, were masterful. They actually invented out of nothing a winning - even textbook quality - strategy for carrying out a diplomatic coup - executed by an overall force that was miniscule, in relation to the population of the actual electorate - within an urban environment.

I consider the ends that they support to be completely unworthy - but the execution was really quite masterful. And - I suspect - by tomorrow, they will emerge victorious.

Excellent post.

Well all before the last comma...

I can hear the screaming at it already winding up.

Agree, excellent analysis, except the "winning" bit.

Like such a "Red Shirt Republican Guard" will go unopposed here!? Obviously its existence needs to be suspected at the least, but if it is here then I'm pretty sure it is up above.

Looks like we're in for a rocky time regardless.

[Jingthing]

Agreed. Good analysis. Especially the human shields part. They also make great propaganda pictures.

[BKjohn]

"Natthawut said he saw the government as a dictotorship for shutting down PTV. The state of emergency will fuel the anger of the red shirts and might trigger a no-holds-barred fight, he added." end quote

The words of of a peace-full leader of a peace-full demonstration ??

Using mindbogglingly stupid Women and old folks who have no clue what is actually happening and how they are manipulated .... as human shields... is a typical tactic of terrorists because they know if there is a crackdown, the media loves pictures of hurt women and grandma's - makes great headlines - while the terrorists throw the bombs at their targets from behind those women and children ....

By the way, if those ignorant "demonstrators for democracy" were not paid by Mr. T and his henchmen, the streets of Bangkok would be full of the normal traffic with barely a red shirt in sight

Edited April 8, 2010 by BKjohn

[cmsally]

The SOE actually gives more control of the army/police to the government. Under the ISA, it was the army's/police's decisions in what to do, and they didn't want to be the cause of any violence.

Under the SOE, the cabinet now makes the decisions. The army/police won't be the cause of anything, it now falls on the cabinet.

Anyway, that's how it was explained to me by someone who had it explained to them by one of the ministers.

Really? what changes? The military still holds the "government" positions. General Prawit at Defense. General Prem as President of the Privy Council and a couple other ranks holding positions. Are you telling me that General Anupong is going to start taking orders now from General Prawit? Outside of some specific situations, a junior ranking officer does not give orders to a senior rank. Something about the chain of command. Unless of course the change in decrees means that General Prem et al come under the command of the government and I don't think that's the case.

The mystery player is General Anupong and I think he is going to surprise alot of people.

General Anupong often seems to lose his hearing aid when he needs to listen to the "mothership". Maybe someone reprogrammed it this time.

[MellowYellow]

Here is how I see the big picture:

The real UDD Red Shirt power brokers are about 20 persons, with maybe 80 more second tier players. They could care less about Democracy - they want power - for themselves. They are probably happy to take Thaksin's money, but would prefer that he not return.

There are then four cadres of important operatives below the top tier. These are the folks who received intense training over the past year. One cadre is the Red Shirt Republican Guard - young, smart, strong, disciplined - who were trained to maintain order within Red Shirts mobs, and restrain overenthusiastic "soldier ants". These guards never participated directly in the "incidents" - they just hovered on the edges of all activities, policing the Red Shirt thugs, to keep them from going overboard. The second cadre were the cell or team leaders for the "rent a mob" - who acted as paymasters, and through whom all instructions passed. They were trained to recruit teams, and arrange for them to get to the main rally site in Bangkok.

There was also another cadre - a shadowy logistics group who arranged for food, water, toilets, electricity, etc. They did a good job. The fourth cadre were the PR and media people - printing shirts, banners, running radio and TV stations, handling the press, and orchestrating the stage/lighting/sound systems.

All of the above were well financed, and not at all "down-trodden peasants." These were smooth manipulators.

You then had two sets of totally expendable "grunts". One group were the photogenic, smiling rice farmer peasants - women, old people, children - waving and smiling, and banging their clackers. Rural folk with nothing to do back home, being paid daily what they would otherwise be unable to earn in a month. Clueless about the deep politics - all they know is Thaksin and TRT/PPP/PTP. Contrary to how they were portrayed - they were really just one thing: human shields for the fighters. They also projected a populist multitude - but their only real function was as human shields to protect the fighters from being engaged.

The final set of grunts were the thugs - mostly from Bangkok - the motorcycle taxi drivers, taxicab drivers, security guards, construction workers. These were the "muscle" who executed all of the stunts and incidents. Operating alone, they would have been shut down at every turn. But - at each event, they were blended into groups of human shield "innocents" - making them difficult to engage.

There was one other population involved - that being sincere Bangkokians who either loved Thaksin, or simply feel solidarity with the claimed Red Shirt objective of "cleaning up" Thai politics, and encouraging economic justice. They were a fortuitous bonus to the Red Shirt leaders - more smiling, well-behaved human shields.

Bottom line: All of the "cannon fodder" low-level players were just pawns being duped by the Red Shirt power brokers. There isn't a snowball's chance in hel_l that the Red Shirt leaders will ever deliver any significant change to their lives. They were simply used by the Red Shirts Dons to create "space" for the insurrectionists to carry out their thuggery.

Frankly - the overall Red Shirt plan, and execution, were masterful. They actually invented out of nothing a winning - even textbook quality - strategy for carrying out a diplomatic coup - executed by an overall force that was miniscule, in relation to the population of the actual electorate - within an urban environment.

I consider the ends that they support to be completely unworthy - but the execution was really quite masterful. And - I suspect - by tomorrow, they will emerge victorious.

Well at least your choice of language doesn't demonstrate any bias, stereotypes or bigotry....

-Soldier ants

-rent a mob

-down trodden peasants

-expendable grunts

-smiling rice farmer peasants

-Rural folk with nothing to do back home

-Clueless about the deep politics

-thugs

-human shields

And so, the other sides strategy, as shown by this post, and many others.

STEP 1) SHOUT "THAKSIN THAKSIN THAKSIN! reallly loud....sell the strawman

STEP 2) SHOUT "THAKSIN THAKSIN THAKSIN! reallly loud.... sell the strawman some more (it can't be oversold enough)

STEP 3) Discredit all protestors with lengthy attacks on:

-their humanity (just look thru this forum for references as ants, buffaloes, water buffaloes, whores, sons of whores, peasants, lazy cattle, etc etc etc)

-their intelligence (yep. keep calling them dumb dumb dumb. Not smart enough to understand the oh so complicated government or complicated terms like "democracy")

-dignity

-their rights ( you thought you had rights to protest. Nahhhhhhh. That's more reserved for higher social classes and different colour shirts)

-their social status

STEP 4) SHOUT "THAKSIN THAKSIN THAKSIN! reallly loud...Seriously. It never gets old. Keep selling.

STEP 5) Put on a show of bad faith negotiation....and then, obviously, Snap-declare the other side is acting in bad faith.

STEP 6) SHOUT "THAKSIN THAKSIN THAKSIN! reallly loud...No. I mean it. It never, ever gets old.

STEP 7) Enact a state of emergency of internal security of the crackdowniest crackdowns of all times.

STEP 8) Soften up the opponents with some more attacks on humanity, dignity, intelligence, patriotism, rights

STEP 9) Use force and lots of it.

STEP 10) Fail anyway.

Well. They are up to step 8. The force is imminent after all the softening and preparatory steps are out of the way.

[Redsunset]

The poor leadership on all fronts just confirms that the seniority system is useless. I'll bet the majority of Thai leaders in the government/military are corrupt. Seems like the only way to make money in Thailand is to either be corrupt or in senior management for a multinational.... screw working hard!!!

[TAWP]

The Abhisit regime came in existence through abuse of power by the military and then abuse of power by a court , both having no business banning a political party in any country that calls itself democratic .

You are confused. Your sentence should be 'vote-buying should have no business in a political party that would like to call itself democratic'. Hence the irony of the Red Shirts.

[kurtgruen]

Get's boring, reading the same old converations over and over again. Does anyone have any current pictures of the protests? I'd never thought I'd hear myself saying this, but I am starting to miss Koo

[Old Man River]

The SOE actually gives more control of the army/police to the government. Under the ISA, it was the army's/police's decisions in what to do, and they didn't want to be the cause of any violence.

Under the SOE, the cabinet now makes the decisions. The army/police won't be the cause of anything, it now falls on the cabinet.

Anyway, that's how it was explained to me by someone who had it explained to them by one of the ministers.

That is how I understand it, although I would add that under the SOE the government can skip the police and give orders directly to the military. Of course, at the end of the day, the military may not obey. Anupong refused to disperse the PAD when Samak ordered him to. Hence, the decision to act or not act is ultimately up to the military.

Was there a SOE under Samak (or Somchai then wasn't it?) Did the SOE (if in effect) mean that the army weren't liable if they followed Samak/Somchai's orders?

If there was no SOE or the SOE didn't protect the army for following Samak/Somchai's orders, then that would be why they didn't go in to disperse them.

As far as I understand, the army refused the order.

The ISA (and the SOE if I understand) gives immunity to actions committed by the army, and essentially under the ISA the army is running the show wherever the ISA is in force. All members of government have to carry out the army's orders under the ISA. The army can command all government agencies under the ISA. What changes under an SOE I don't know.

Under the ISA, both the police and military are involved. Under the SOE, only the military is involved (the police are bypassed). This is understandable since during an emergency situation no need to waste time trying to coordinate with both groups. Quick actions are required. The SOE is more repressive than the ISA, how repressive depends on the which regulations are added to it.

A good example of how much more repressive the SOE can be is that in less than 24 hours since the SOE was declared, Suthep has been able to completely dismantle the Red's communication lines.

[Thai at Heart]

Under the ISA, both the police and military are involved. Under the SOE, only the military is involved (the police are bypassed). This is understandable since during an emergency situation no need to waste time trying to coordinate with both groups. Quick actions are required. The SOE is more repressive than the ISA, how repressive depends on the which regulations are added to it.

A good example of how much more repressive the SOE can be is that in less than 24 hours since the SOE was declared, Suthep has been able to completely dismantle the Red's communication lines.

That was more or less how I saw it. However, my understanding is also that under an ISA the army is in no way obligated to use the police force at all. The situation that we saw for the last couple of days was simply because everyone decided it would be better to have the police involved than not at all.

As for the SOE being behind the ability of someone to close the TV channels down, this is also feasible under the ISA, but presumably no one had the resolve to do it. Or are the BIB proving to be more of a hindrance than a help?

As for Suthep being responsible for deciding to do this, I don't believe it for one second. The Army is pulling the strings now, and I would imagine that whilst all the major strategic decisions will involve Suthep, the plan isn't being submitted by him, rather approved.

[Old Man River]

Under the ISA, both the police and military are involved. Under the SOE, only the military is involved (the police are bypassed). This is understandable since during an emergency situation no need to waste time trying to coordinate with both groups. Quick actions are required. The SOE is more repressive than the ISA, how repressive depends on the which regulations are added to it.

A good example of how much more repressive the SOE can be is that in less than 24 hours since the SOE was declared, Suthep has been able to completely dismantle the Red's communication lines.

That was more or less how I saw it. However, my understanding is also that under an ISA the army is in no way obligated to use the police force at all. The situation that we saw for the last couple of days was simply because everyone decided it would be better to have the police involved than not at all.

As for the SOE being behind the ability of someone to close the TV channels down, this is also feasible under the ISA, but presumably no one had the resolve to do it. Or are the BIB proving to be more of a hindrance than a help?

As for Suthep being responsible for deciding to do this, I don't believe it for one second. The Army is pulling the strings now, and I would imagine that whilst all the major strategic decisions will involve Suthep, the plan isn't being submitted by him, rather approved.

On the ISA and SOE my understanding is a bit different, but it is irrelevant. On who is in control now, I think it is Abhisit with advice from the senior Democratic advisers who have long standing relationships with current and retired military officials. Suthep has the job, he has the authority, he has the responsibility, but I agree he isn't the main decision maker. In fact, he probably has the least amount of input into these decisions.

[euro82]

Get's boring, reading the same old converations over and over again. Does anyone have any current pictures of the protests? I'd never thought I'd hear myself saying this, but I am starting to miss Koo

I put some here if you are interested: http://www.flickr.com/photos/cyrilleandres/

Im going back there now. Hope Ill get some nice content

[TAWP]

Get's boring, reading the same old converations over and over again. Does anyone have any current pictures of the protests? I'd never thought I'd hear myself saying this, but I am starting to miss Koo

I put some here if you are interested: http://www.flickr.com/photos/cyrilleandres/

Im going back there now. Hope Ill get some nice content

Thank you. But perhaps less editorial-style posed pics and more news-style in the coverage?

I mean, an old couple in red is cute, but says nothing about the demonstration, its impact, how wide-spread it is, what is going on in a time-line etc etc.

Thanks in advanced.

[animatic]

Get's boring, reading the same old converations over and over again. Does anyone have any current pictures of the protests? I'd never thought I'd hear myself saying this, but I am starting to miss Koo

yeah me too.

Her pictures seemed quite real and reflected her views.

She was early on clearly sincere and rather starry eyed about it,

till somebody got their hooks in her, to feed their hooks in here.