How Can The Pound Still Be Falling Vs. Baht

[stevehaigh]

this is crazy, everyone i talked to before the UK election said 'don't worry, the pound will go up after the election'

now Cameron/Kleg are in office, Thailand is entering into a civil war, so please explain to me how the pound can keep falling and more importantly, where is it going next?

[gotlost]

Because the UK's economy sucks worse than Thailand can screw things up.

[Naam]

currencies are special animals. no accurate methods to forecast their behaviour. now putting on my flak-jacket and wait for incoming from tech-anals

[Naam]

Because the UK's economy sucks worse than Thailand can screw things up.

definitely one valid reason of many

[flying]

everyone i talked to before the UK election said 'don't worry, the pound will go up after the election'

Yes well everyone in the US claimed hope & change was on its way nearly 1.5 years ago

Yet we are still eating Cream of Nothing here today

[nakachalet]

relax.... friends....

the THB is range bound, that i can assure you....

if you have extra money in the bank....

change it into physical gold, but NOT GOLD COINS, won't be a bad idea....

[luangtom]

Remember how well the baht fared in exchanges prior to the collapse in 1997-1998? Well, it may just be propped up again until they can no longer support it. How in the world can the Thai economy be better off than those others mentioned? Surely with the loss of revenue during the time since the coup in 2006 until now the baht is artificially inflated. If not, why is Thailand still a Third World Country with its turmoil and upheavals and not a world or at least an ASEAN powerhouse?

Edited May 15, 2010 by luangtom

[losworld]

It's called MANIPULATION same as the stock market. Do the opposite of what rational and you'll make a lot of money.

[flying]

How in the world can the Thai economy be better off than those others mentioned?

It is not just how your economy is doing today..... Takes time for reactions to occur.

But also it is based on Debt not just economy. US & Euro are in debt up to their eyeballs...That does not translate into a strong currency

[thaigold]

It's called MANIPULATION same as the stock market. Do the opposite of what rational and you'll make a lot of money.

Actually, material wealth never vanishes. Case in point, the US housing market. All of the real estate is still there. These lovely new homes are still standing, but vacant. What has vanished are the debt bombs that created this wealth. So, extending this line of thought, it’s the promise to pay the debt that has vaporized. This same mindset works with money. Money, be it baht; pounds; dollars; or shekels, this paper is only worth what the cumulative gray matter between the ears of the holders believe it to be. It’s a confidence game.

Soon, if the Thais can’t find common ground, the baht will fall. The best gauge is the forex, or better yet, insider information on the Bank of Thailand’s balance sheet. The real one – if you get my drift.

[jefro]

relax.... friends....

the THB is range bound, that i can assure you....

if you have extra money in the bank....

change it into physical gold, but NOT GOLD COINS, won't be a bad idea....

Why NOT GOLD COINS ?

[thailife69]

There is always a simple explanation.

The UK economy is built on little substance. Thatcher changed it to a finiancial based economy. The UK economey colapsed as did the worlds. But because the UK economy does not produce anything and then borrowed heavily to save it's banks and politicians, investors have decided that the pound is of little value to the world and will continue to slide.

Add to the fact that the UK is in europe and now has to help bail out the lazy Greeks, then most likely Portugal, Ireland and Spain, it is very unlikely the pound will rebound soon.

The hung parliment is just a short side show. Similar to putting a few coins in a slot machine hoping for a pay out.

The Thai enconomy on the other hand actually produces tangible products, along with the Bank of Thailand's policy attempting to track the US dollar has helped to keep the Baht strong. Have you seen the exch. rate of pound/dollar. Even in it's weakest state the Thai Economy continues to grow. Even through roits, military coups, bloodshed and death.

I cannot imagine the pound could manage the same scenario.

Also keep in mind currencies are prone to political and central bank interference. Hence the goal posts are always moving.

Thus the pound is worthless.

So what should you do with your pounds? Convert them into gold 2 years ago would be my advice or hope that the ten year investor cycle will return the pound to strenght. It would certainly help my bank balance.

[simcity]

relax.... friends....

the THB is range bound, that i can assure you....

if you have extra money in the bank....

change it into physical gold, but NOT GOLD COINS, won't be a bad idea....

Why NOT GOLD COINS ?

you paying a premium for it, less easy to sell as Thai gold bar bought in china town, the Opp could buy other currencies as well if he think the thai baht will go down.

edit, the gold part are if you live in thailand

Edited May 15, 2010 by simcity

[Naam]

Remember how well the baht fared in exchanges prior to the collapse in 1997-1998? Well,

1. it may just be propped up again until they can no longer support it. How in the world can the Thai economy be better off than those others mentioned?

2.Surely with the loss of revenue during the time since the coup in 2006 until now the baht is artificially inflated. If not, why is Thailand still a Third World Country with its turmoil and upheavals and not a world or at least an ASEAN powerhouse?

1. the Baht is not propped up but the Bank of Thailand has been (and is still) selling Baht and buying US-Dollars on a daily basis in order to keep the currency down! take a look how the country's reserves have increased during the last 24 months.

2.what loss pray tell?

3. our wishful thinking (and that includes my [not so] humble self) will not generate a depreciation of the Baht vs. our home currencies

[lonewolf99]

If any one believes a Government spokesperson in any country in all the world today...they must be living in airy fairy gah gah land in rose cottage lane....

They are all a bunch of lying skunks determined to line their own pockets with all the money they can embezzle and steal.

Why else are the streets of Greece and Thailand full of protesters ?

I have seen endless debate on the value of the Thai baht and never seen a definitive answer.

I saw a report today stating that Britain will NOT be helping to bail out any EU country....why? ...because they do not have the funds to help even themselves.

Britain is stony broke.

And lurking in the background is the good ol' U S of A....

how much longer can they go on lobbing bombs in Afghanistan before they run out of bombs and money.

If there was a single global currency and it was based on Bullsh*t...the politicians would still be the better off amongst us...

[sarahsbloke]

The UK economy is in bad shape, the USA is worse, and Europe is the worst of the lot.

But a country about to have a revolution, with soldiers shooting it's own citizens in the street is perfectly fine.

............ until the value of its currency 1/2s overnight ............

If the Euro keeps going down and the Baht keeps going up I may have to move to Spain or Greece, lucky that I have a years worth of Baht in the bank.

[somtampet]

Just worked out my next 7 years before government pension and serps 2,and based it on 40 baht to the gbp.Anything else is a bonus,and luckily i am ok but realy feel for the pensioners who came here for a better life and now have to cut costs.

WE can all cut costs and it wont be the end of the world,and i could cut back at least 4,000 baht a week,so if the shit hits the fan i am still ok,and much better then retiring at 50 in uk

[djayz]

The main difference is that many (if not most) countries in the west have a serious debt problem. This problem is fundamental and will take a lot longer to solve than the problem currently facing Thailand. Thailand has not yet slipped into civil war and the probability of civil war breaking out here is low. The problem still only affects a small (-ish) number of people in Thailand - the rest of the country is - for now - quiet and not involved in the conflict.

The Thais will have solved their political problems long before the west has solved it's debt crisis. That's probably the main reason why the Bath is so strong compared to the British Pound and Euro (or US Dollar for that matter).

The BOT may also be propping up the Bath - but that has a minimum effect on the value of the Bath.

It'll take a few years until the west has seriously reduced it's debt.

[jackdawson]

i remember the pound

[djayz]

Now that we are on the topic... I still have about Euros 75,000 which I regretably didn't exchange at the beginning of the year. With the Thai bath being so strong and the Euro so weak there's no way I want to exchange this money now. I'm still free to move to another country and don't have any ties to Thailand. Can anybody suggest other countries OR currencies IN ASIA where I would still get a fair / decent value for my Euros without loosing too much on the exchange rate? What other currencies in Asia are not so strong? Any suggestions? Am willing to move anywhere in Asia...

[tijnebijn]

Now that we are on the topic... I still have about Euros 75,000 which I regretably didn't exchange at the beginning of the year. With the Thai bath being so strong and the Euro so weak there's no way I want to exchange this money now. I'm still free to move to another country and don't have any ties to Thailand. Can anybody suggest other countries OR currencies IN ASIA where I would still get a fair / decent value for my Euros without loosing too much on the exchange rate? What other currencies in Asia are not so strong? Any suggestions? Am willing to move anywhere in Asia...

Vietnam or Philippines or cambodia I would say , even with a weak euro we could sing it out a lot longer

for value is my guess .

By the way several posters refer as bath but it is THE BAHT .

Edited May 15, 2010 by tijnebijn

[djayz]

Now that we are on the topic... I still have about Euros 75,000 which I regretably didn't exchange at the beginning of the year. With the Thai bath being so strong and the Euro so weak there's no way I want to exchange this money now. I'm still free to move to another country and don't have any ties to Thailand. Can anybody suggest other countries OR currencies IN ASIA where I would still get a fair / decent value for my Euros without loosing too much on the exchange rate? What other currencies in Asia are not so strong? Any suggestions? Am willing to move anywhere in Asia...

Vietnam or Philippines or cambodia I would say , even with a weak euro we could sing it out a lot longer

for value is my guess .

By the way several posters refer as bath but it is THE BAHT .

Ah... that was just a typo... thanks anyway.

[gregb]

The crux of the matter is that the instability in Thailand is still viewed by most investors to be transient. In time, everyone expects the Thais to work out their difficulties and return to normalcy. (Yes NORMALCY, not NORMALITY. So there!)

What is happening in the West, by contrast, is structural and permanent. It can not be repaired, and a collapse is imminent. It is a matter of when, not if.

That is why even a Thai civil war will not dramatically affect the exchange rate trend as long as the war is a short one. Whatever happens here, the problems in the West are much, much worse.

As above, the way to protect yourself is gold. Coins if you are in the West, bars if you are in Thailand. You have to buy the right gold for the area you expect to live.

Gold will outperform every currency including the Baht. It is the only place left to run and hide.

[aussiebebe]

As above, the way to protect yourself is gold. Coins if you are in the West, bars if you are in Thailand. You have to buy the right gold for the area you expect to live.

Gold will outperform every currency including the Baht. It is the only place left to run and hide.

Hi, I asked this in another thread, how are people buying gold. I understand that coins carry a premium. One member suggested buying gold bars, another suggested www.goldmoney.com which charges 2.5% fee when buying and a further storage fee? Don't get it.

How are you proposing people buy and store gold bars? I wouldn't store any at my house (my wife's house technically) as home insurance doesn't cover theft and a safe would be a large outlay. Are bank security deposit boxes the way to go or is there another way. I read in the Bangkok Post about buying gold-backed bonds or mini-bonds - is this a way forward?

Cheers

Edit: I just edited this to add that I frequently watch Thai news where theives have removed the entire, unopened safe containing all the valuables from peoples houses. Happens to one celebrity of another every month.

Edited May 15, 2010 by aussiebebe

[el jefe]

Getting back to the OP's question:

UK = democracy, good political situation

Thailand = no democracy, horrendous political situation

This has little to do with the economy.

UK = poor economy, poor economic policies (much the same can be said for Europe and the US)

Thailand = pretty good economy and those in charge haven't made any major blunders recently

When the economic situation reverses, the Pound (Euro and Dollar too) will go up against the Baht.

[w11guy]

Add to the fact that the UK is in europe and now has to help bail out the lazy Greeks, then most likely Portugal, Ireland and Spain, it is very unlikely the pound will rebound soon.

The UK isn't in the eurozone, so isn't part of the Greek bailout plan. The GBP and Euro are separate currencies. If Greece has problems then that should strengthen the GBP not weaken it.

[neil324]

relax.... friends....

the THB is range bound, that i can assure you....

if you have extra money in the bank....

change it into physical gold, but NOT GOLD COINS, won't be a bad idea....

Why NOT GOLD COINS ?

you paying a premium for it, less easy to sell as Thai gold bar bought in china town, the Opp could buy other currencies as well if he think the thai baht will go down.

edit, the gold part are if you live in thailand

In the UK and most of the west you pay CGT on bullion, currently 18% but soon to be 40%. Best to pay the premium.

[w11guy]

Thus the pound is worthless.

It's worth about 47bhat or $1.45, so in fact is not worthless at all. It's very wek at the moment, but has been weaker. It is certainly not worthless. If you think it is, please give me all your pounds. I'll happily take them off your hands. In the Uk we can but things with the pound. They are vet valuable to us.

[neil324]

Add to the fact that the UK is in europe and now has to help bail out the lazy Greeks, then most likely Portugal, Ireland and Spain, it is very unlikely the pound will rebound soon.

The UK isn't in the eurozone, so isn't part of the Greek bailout plan. The GBP and Euro are separate currencies. If Greece has problems then that should strengthen the GBP not weaken it.

The pound tends to get pulled down with the Euro, Europe is its biggest trading partner.

[w11guy]

Getting back to the OP's question:

UK = democracy, good political situation

Thailand = no democracy, horrendous political situation

This has little to do with the economy.

UK = poor economy, poor economic policies (much the same can be said for Europe and the US)

Thailand = pretty good economy and those in charge haven't made any major blunders recently

When the economic situation reverses, the Pound (Euro and Dollar too) will go up against the Baht.

But surely the Thai economy must be suffering big time. Tourist numbers are way down and must be falling even faster now. Also, currencies often move because of knee jerk reactions. It's vert surprising that the bhat is so strong against the GBP. Yes, the UK is almost bankrupt, but it has been for a few years. So why should the bhat strengthen even further now that the UK is sorting out the economy and the Thai economy is on the slide. It just doesn't make sense. Maybe it will collapse some day soon. Or maybe people are just betting on the situation being resolved very soon and the tourists returning.