Gbp Vs Thb

[inthepink]

I don't want to stray too far off topic here but the UK unemployment figures were actually marginally better than expected: 7.9% as opposed to forecast of 8% and a claimant count change of -30.9k as opposed to forecast of -23.2k. Also if events worsen in Europe any flight to safety will not benefit GBP in my opinion. Firstly the EU is the UK's largest export market and secondly it was a flight to safety that saw sterling and the euro drop so precipitously in the first place.

Anyway, it's all conjecture as you say, which is why I stick with day trading.

[chiang mai]

I don't want to stray too far off topic here but the UK unemployment figures were actually marginally better than expected: 7.9% as opposed to forecast of 8% and a claimant count change of -30.9k as opposed to forecast of -23.2k. Also if events worsen in Europe any flight to safety will not benefit GBP in my opinion. Firstly the EU is the UK's largest export market and secondly it was a flight to safety that saw sterling and the euro drop so precipitously in the first place.

Anyway, it's all conjecture as you say, which is why I stick with day trading.

Yes, the claimant count was better but the ILO figures were much worse which is why I specifically qualified this in my post. ILO looks at the broader set of numbers of people out of work including those that are not claiming benefits and does, I think, present a truer representation - both sets of numbers are reproted at the same time.

As for flight to safety issues: I was refering to a fairly recent but brief flight from Euro to GBP and not the flight from everything into USD that took place earlier, that exedous from the Euro saw GBP strengthen as a result.

Edited June 16, 2010 by chiang mai

[sarahsbloke]

No one can tell you what the government will do, but if the past 5 years are any indications at all... it looks rather bad...

Why look at the worst chart?

Why not look at the 15-20 year chart and then you will feel happy!

I last changed at 54bht to the 1 UKP, I intend to hold out until at least 50bht ..... 6-9 months is my prediction.

[inthepink]

I don't want to stray too far off topic here but the UK unemployment figures were actually marginally better than expected: 7.9% as opposed to forecast of 8% and a claimant count change of -30.9k as opposed to forecast of -23.2k. Also if events worsen in Europe any flight to safety will not benefit GBP in my opinion. Firstly the EU is the UK's largest export market and secondly it was a flight to safety that saw sterling and the euro drop so precipitously in the first place.

Anyway, it's all conjecture as you say, which is why I stick with day trading.

Yes, the claimant count was better but the ILO figures were much worse which is why I specifically qualified this in my post. ILO looks at the broader set of numbers of people out of work including those that are not claiming benefits and does, I think, present a truer representation - both sets of numbers are reproted at the same time.

As for flight to safety issues: I was refering to a fairly recent but brief flight from Euro to GBP and not the flight from everything into USD that took place earlier, that exedous from the Euro saw GBP strengthen as a result.

As you can see from my above post that you quoted, I mentioned both the ILO unemployment figure (actual 7.9%, forecast 8%) and the claimant count. Both were better than forecast.

Edited June 17, 2010 by inthepink

[ChiangMaiFun]

I have noticed 'blips' upwards in August on the five years charts - shall I wait or change now? I have to change a substantial amount before 1st Oct according to a contract.

[phomsanuk]

If this is any indication there's not much light at the end of the tunnel, The US$ is stronger than the GBP currently.

"The markets are willing to accept virtually the same yield from the Thai government as they do from the American." Economist. Does this mean that investors have as little confidence in the USA as it has for a country in strife and the leader of the Asian crisis of the late 90's?

If the Chinese currency strengthens so will the baht.

[chiang mai]

I have noticed 'blips' upwards in August on the five years charts - shall I wait or change now? I have to change a substantial amount before 1st Oct according to a contract.

Difficult to know, why not do half now at a known half way decent rate and wait on the other half until closer to the time, that way you've hedged as best you are able.

[jay1980]

double post

Edited June 17, 2010 by jay1980

[jay1980]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/7833890/Budget-2010-Bank-of-Englands-Mervyn-King-gives-clearest-warning-yet-of-interest-rate-rise.html

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=506411&in_page_id=2&ct=5]

Few articles in the press saying UK interest rates will be going up soon, I am no expert but would this help the pound?

Edited June 17, 2010 by jay1980

[chiang mai]

Budget 2010: Bank of England's Mervyn King gives clearest warning yet of interest rate rise - Telegraph

]http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=506411&in_page_id=2&ct=5]

Few articles in the press saying UK interest rates will be going up soon, I am no expert but would this help the pound?

Yes it would but I seriously doubt that interest rates will go up sufficently, any time soon.

[neil324]

Budget 2010: Bank of England's Mervyn King gives clearest warning yet of interest rate rise - Telegraph

]]http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=506411&in_page_id=2&ct=5]

Few articles in the press saying UK interest rates will be going up soon, I am no expert but would this help the pound?

Yes it would but I seriously doubt that interest rates will go up sufficently, any time soon.

Indeed watch what i do, not what i say. Rates are going no where.

[hansum]

Budget 2010: Bank of England's Mervyn King gives clearest warning yet of interest rate rise - Telegraph

]]http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=506411&in_page_id=2&ct=5]

Few articles in the press saying UK interest rates will be going up soon, I am no expert but would this help the pound?

Yes it would but I seriously doubt that interest rates will go up sufficently, any time soon.

They wish to inflate their way out of this debt, if the BOE were doing there job properly theyd be putting interest rates up to fight inlation my take on it from listening to BOE decision makers is we're more likely to get more QE or money printing in the coming months then higher rates, as there is about to be another 500,000 on the dole thus they claim it'll bring inflation down.

Pity we didnt have the sense to do as the Americans done and just let the property market crash, there is an unhealthy obsession with people who have a self interest in keeping the prices artificially high.

Edited June 18, 2010 by hansum

[neil324]

Budget 2010: Bank of England's Mervyn King gives clearest warning yet of interest rate rise - Telegraph

]]]http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=506411&in_page_id=2&ct=5]

Few articles in the press saying UK interest rates will be going up soon, I am no expert but would this help the pound?

Yes it would but I seriously doubt that interest rates will go up sufficently, any time soon.

They wish to inflate their way out of this debt, if the BOE were doing there job properly theyd be putting interest rates up to fight inlation my take on it from listening to BOE decision makers is we're more likely to get more QE or money printing in the coming months then higher rates, as there is about to be another 500,000 on the dole thus they claim it'll bring inflation down.

Pity we didnt have the sense to do as the Americans done and just let the property market crash, there is an unhealthy obsession with people who have a self interest in keeping the prices artificially high.

You need wage inflation though.

[hansum]

Budget 2010: Bank of England's Mervyn King gives clearest warning yet of interest rate rise - Telegraph

]]]]http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=506411&in_page_id=2&ct=5]

Few articles in the press saying UK interest rates will be going up soon, I am no expert but would this help the pound?

Yes it would but I seriously doubt that interest rates will go up sufficently, any time soon.

They wish to inflate their way out of this debt, if the BOE were doing there job properly theyd be putting interest rates up to fight inlation my take on it from listening to BOE decision makers is we're more likely to get more QE or money printing in the coming months then higher rates, as there is about to be another 500,000 on the dole thus they claim it'll bring inflation down.

Pity we didnt have the sense to do as the Americans done and just let the property market crash, there is an unhealthy obsession with people who have a self interest in keeping the prices artificially high.

You need wage inflation though.

Isnt QE going to see to wage inflation, despite the growing number of people soon to be out of work?

It'll just mean as wage inflation is lower then price inflation people will have a lower standard of living.

Wages are still rising, surely with the millions on the sick/dole this shouldnt be the case.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE6446DE20100505

Edited June 18, 2010 by hansum

[neil324]

Means less disposable income to spend though, retail will crash.

If they do let wage inflation go any UK competitveness left will be lost, jobs & investment will be lost at an alarming rate.

There is never a free lunch.

Just to touch on your link, construction in the UK is seeing 40% wage cuts from the 2007 peak, where does that fit into that survey.

Edited June 18, 2010 by neil324

[hansum]

Means less disposable income to spend though, retail will crash.

It has crashed already you just need to walk through most town centres to see the amount of empty shops, but when the retail sector was financed by credit that was inevitable.

If they do let wage inflation go any UK competitveness left will be lost, jobs & investment will be lost at an alarming rate.

There is never a free lunch.

We are losing jobs at an alarming rate, and its about to get worse in the public sector, but sterling has already fallen on average 30% against most currencies to help with competition.

Im badly putting my point across, basically without QE /low interest rates we'd have deflation which imo would be a great thing as it'd enable property, wages to go to their natural level, thus meaning the banks assets would fall and IMO property would fall far more then wages as wages havnt rose at the same rate in the last 12 yrs ... but with QE/low interest rates, wage inflation is still rising, asset/property prices are kept artificially high and unbelievably going up, thus the govt is inflating its way out of the problem. (apologies that wording isnt the best but i hope you get my drift)

[jay1980]

Under the new government I think QE will be a thing of the past. Also they are taking the deficit much more seriously. I am currently due to be finishing an IT contract for a government department and I can say there has been a huge change of direction within weeks of Labour being kicked out towards cost saving. I think the emergency budget could help the pound. Maybe interests rates will not go up significantly in the next few months, but even a 1/4 % increase will be an indicator to the markets that should help the pound.

That said I cannot see things going much past 50 baht per pound for a while unless things get worse for USD or baht its self.

cheers

[sarahsbloke]

.......... but sterling has already fallen on average 30% against most currencies to help with competition.

Please name any major currency that sterling has fallen against.

The US dollar ........... about the same as it was 10 years ago, maybe a slight gain

The Euro ...... about the same as it was when the Euro started, maybe a slight gain

[chiang mai]

.......... but sterling has already fallen on average 30% against most currencies to help with competition.

Please name any major currency that sterling has fallen against.

The US dollar ........... about the same as it was 10 years ago, maybe a slight gain

The Euro ...... about the same as it was when the Euro started, maybe a slight gain

What an odd post, comparing Sterling against USD when it was near par in the '90's or against USD in the '70's when it was around 2.40 is a waste of time, ditto any comparisons that are ten or twenty years old.

I do think that when discussing exchange rate variances it's sensible to look at only recent years otherwise the exercise becomes meaningless, a five year timescale is I think indicative of a trend and is reasonable.

[Naam]

We are losing jobs at an alarming rate, and its about to get worse in the public sector, but sterling has already fallen on average 30% against most currencies to help with competition.

finally we know the real reason why Sterling has fallen

[hansum]

We are losing jobs at an alarming rate, and its about to get worse in the public sector, but sterling has already fallen on average 30% against most currencies to help with competition.

finally we know the real reason why Sterling has fallen

Cant help being a condescending old man can you.

Change it to, it may help .., it could help.. , it should help, its expected to help ..

[Naam]

We are losing jobs at an alarming rate, and its about to get worse in the public sector, but sterling has already fallen on average 30% against most currencies to help with competition.

finally we know the real reason why Sterling has fallen

Cant help being a condescending old man can you.

Change it to, it may help .., it could help.. , it should help, its expected to help ..

can't help writing rubbish first and then try to correct it, can you?

[hansum]

...then 70 end of 2011 and 95 end of 2012

Rude Old man, im thinking this is rubbish, or is it your devastatingly witty humour?

Now write something constructive or go away old man, youre boring.

[chiang mai]

...then 70 end of 2011 and 95 end of 2012

Rude Old man, im thinking this is rubbish, or is it your devastatingly witty humour?

Now write something constructive or go away old man, youre boring.

"Rude", best look in the mirror based on what I see here! There's really no need for it.

[hansum]

...then 70 end of 2011 and 95 end of 2012

Rude Old man, im thinking this is rubbish, or is it your devastatingly witty humour?

Now write something constructive or go away old man, youre boring.

"Rude", best look in the mirror based on what I see here! There's really no need for it.

Now look back and see who was being condescending at several people for no reason, im merely biting back... and he is old.

Edited June 21, 2010 by hansum

[ChiangMaiFun]

Can everyone get back on topic please?

How will China's action today effect (if at all) GBP vs. THB? we arew stuck around 47.7 - was hoping for a minor boost

[chiang mai]

My guess is that if the Chinese start to sell off their US bond holdings then USD will start to fall and regional currencies will strengthen, don't know, I'm out of my depth here. On a more positive point, GBP is starting to look fairly healthy (as in less anaemic), the next day or so should tell the story on that front as the UK budget and the implications of it become more clear. Regardless, I'm not expecting to see anything better than 50 for the foreseeable future.

[ChiangMaiFun]

I'm expecting a small bounce as the US housing market is reporting such poor results

[jay1980]

http://www.thisismon..._page_id=3&ct=5

First sign interest rates will move up soon?

Edited June 23, 2010 by jay1980

[ChiangMaiFun]

approaching 49 on the 'bounce' - I'll change today as it probably won't last this 'bounce' and will dip next week