Thai Baht Will Further Rise Despite Measures: Korn

[kuffki]

What goes up must come down again. I'm sure the Baht - Euro / - GBP / - USD etc. will return (more or less) to its' former value. It's just a question of time (or another crisis).

Do you mean the 25 Baht to the Dollar and 38 Baht to the GBP that it was in the early 90's ?

Thats the one, and what happened in late 90's??? a crash.

In my opinion, the one coming this time will be much worse then the previous one.

[sandythejock]

the Baht getting stronger is great for me. I would help me able to afford going to study in U.S. My saving is now worth more in USD so no complaint here. i would be even better if it gets to 25-27 Baht/Dollar

Not for me, i get paid in USD and live in Phuket :-(

[Scandalous]

Unless Thailand is an undercover powerhouse like China or India, which they not.

Baht will get stronger and stronger and stronger and then just crash, little like the last crisis in 1997, from memory it was $1=23-34baht.

Despite what many believe i am firm believer that BOT and the gov manipulate THB and should it be allowed to trade freely on the market i have a feeling things would look very different.

Keep in mind that during those times the top 10% of Thailand benefits while the rest 90% suffers.in other words, rich are getting richer, while poor stay the same or poorer.:jap:

Indeed the value of thai baht is manipulated..

Deliberately keeping it week which is assisting Export and tourism industries.

Despite all the complaints about the strength of the Baht, it is currently way undervalued

48% of Thai economy is derived from export of just 3 products, auto, electronic and mechanical parts a further 8% from tourism

this represents a huge balancy of trade and foreign currency surplus.

It may disturb many to learn that economists once again consider USD 1 = 23 baht as the true value

so hold on to your hats guys (though am sure after getting this good news many will suggest I should eat mine)

[Scandalous]

The problem is easy to solve. Convert all Thai Baht to US Dollar, then abolish the Thai Baht. There will be no currency fluctuation ever ever again. http://answers.yahoo...22010551AAuJHoh

Pardon me

I think you were having a blond moment there

The US Dollar is the most traded currency in the world

it has been loosing value against GB Pound, Euro, Chinese Yuan, Japanese Yen and many other currencies over last few years

if we adopted USD price of our imports would still be affected

America imports a huge range of products and US citizens have been complaining about higher prices

[rayw]

Never 50% win, 50% loose. Use your head and think about it!!! If the Baht is more stronger the Tourists go otherwhere to a cheaper place. The export of Thailand go down because the Import-Countries buy the product in a cheaper country. And last but not least the "normal" Thaipeople never become a higher income but everything start be much more expensive. Thai thinking!!! If my income go down I must sell my products more expensive!!!

A lot of food are now 15-20% more expensive than 2-3 years ago. But the people still earn only 8.000 - 15.000 Baht.

The only who win about a higher Baht are the companys who import products. But they don't give the "cheaper" import prices to the customer, so the products are not cheaper. They have a higher income in their bankaccount.

Your point that imported products should be cheaper is a fair point and it hasn’t gone unnoticed with me that Thai consumer product importers and retailers are failing to pass on the savings as a result of a favorable exchange rate. But since the Thai government is not concerned about controlling the prices of imported consumer products, retailers here can charge whatever they like and add to their already healthy profit levels.

Agree RHCP that is exactly what I have been watching and waiting for, and why doesn't petrol/diesel prices fall at the pumps as they are imported for US dollars so should be much cheaper per barrel to import here. SO yes indeed when a currency increases in strength against the other major world currencies (and particularly the US dollar which is still I believe the primary currency for international trade) then imported goods become cheaper of course and it therefore does NOT lead to inflation but the complete opposite. When a currency devalues then import costs go through the roof and inflation results, however a cheaper currency means generally better export trade (if unlike the UK you still have a manufacturing or service industry left) and thus more work and more wealth to pay for the inflated prices from imported products and raw materials. However a weak currency in a country that also needs to import its raw materials will mean production costs will soon start to rise so the cheaper exports in a year or two become just as expensive again, advantage gone but the poor get poorer of course from high inflation. Something is logically wrong in the UK where the pound has devalued about 25% against the dollar over the past 3 years yet they are seeing low consumer price inflation there ???? This is a crazy and illogical situation and of course is a lot to do with import companies (most companies in the UK fit this category) and those retailing imported products (most retailers) having to cut their profits to a minimum or even a loss to stay in business and keep their stock turning over, result is staff cutbacks and indeed many companies having to close as you see now in the UK and elsewhere. I still predict that UK inflation has to rise considerably within the next year or two or you just stop all inflation by killing the economy i.e. no growth, less jobs, little consumer spending, almost what we have now in the UK.

As for me on a UK pension my plan for a comfortable retirement here after over 40 years hard working in the UK has had to change to just a reasonable but pretty plain existence but at least mustn't complain too much. So sure I want to see the Baht/£ back over 60, and/or UK inflation rise giving my pension a bigger annual increase to catch up with the poor exchange rate, and/or Thai retail prices to drop or at least stabilise, or of course any combination of those three. Whilst many greedy fat caps and corrupt a'holes are creaming it all off I hold little hope of any of those wishes coming to fruition.

Edited September 23, 2010 by rayw

[Gonsalviz]

As long as Obama is spending the US silly the dollar will decline. Thailand does not have enough money to overcome that machine. Everything is up against the dollar.

The dollar is down, oil prices go up.

You conspiracy theorists can go back to sleep now.

[slim]

Are they trying to make thailand so expensive no one will come here ? Why don't they follow japan and try to de value the baht !

Anyone should have figured out by now that the Baht is directly tide to the yen. A strong Yen= strong Baht but it is killing Japan exports.

Here it always takes awhile for them to wake up and smell the coffee and usually until it is to late.

No it isn't.

The Thai baht was floated on July 1997 when the currency was pegged at 25 to the USD. It isn't "tide" (you mean tied) to any currency. It follows the fortunes of the dollar as does every currency. Dollar weak=Thai baht strong its the same for the Yen. When(if) the USA pulls out of its current economic woes the baht will begin to fall against the dollar.

[hardy1943]

What no one has mentioned so far is the elephant in the middle of the room. It's not that the Thai Baht is so strong. It's just another fiat currency like almost all currencies since 1971 when the final connection between the USD and gold and silver was severed. Since then the scams and schemes of the international bankers of London, New York, Switzerland, etc. have multiplied and expanded to the point where now the fiat currencies of all countries are being devalued at an increasingly accelerated rate.

It is like a race to the bottom. It's difficult to keep up with which currencies are actually devaluing faster than the others. Certainly the USD is near the top of the list of the fastest devaluing currencies. In recent years Thailand has tried to devalue their currency at the same pace as the USD in order to support exports and tourism. Now they are understandably starting to rethink that strategy. Perhaps they are following the lead of China which recently allowed it's currency to rise against the USD a little bit.

The global picture is bleak. There are no obvious healthy choices within the mainstream spectrum of "conventional wisdom" -- mostly Keynesian thinking. The only option which would eventually put the world on solid economic footing again would be a global return to sound money. It would be painful initially, but in the long run there would be the potential for economic fairness and an end to runaway government spending and always the richest 1% dominating the economies of the world.

The last 10 Economist that won a Nobel price will sharply disagree with you. Maybe you should try to proof your point after all they still pay 1 million US$ if you win.

Yes, well in order to even be considered for a Nobel prize for Economics, one must have his head ensconced where "the sun don't shine". Krugman is the classic case in point. He still asserts that the US gov't can borrow and spend its way out of this mess. Long ago the Nobel prize lost all credibility. They even gave the emperor, Barry Soetoro (Obama), the Nobel peace prize at the same time that he was escalating military activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The Nobel prize is a joke.

Your wisdom is greater then theirs? Or you just can not handle an Intelligent man in the White House that is part Black?

[lovelomsak]

Hardy1943 you are correct on this part if I may please quote you here quoteIt is like a race to the bottom. It's difficult to keep up with which currencies are actually devaluing faster than the others. Certainly the USD is near the top of the list of the fastest devaluing currencies. In recent years Thailand has tried to devalue their currency at the same pace as the USD in order to support exports and tourism. Now they are understandably starting to rethink that strategy. Perhaps they are following the lead of China which recently allowed it's currency to rise against the USD a little bit. unquote Thailand is aware now of the value of a strong currency in this changing economic world. Watch and learn folks.Thailand will be in a position in the future that none of you would ever have thought possible. Many people in the future will say I never seen that coming. Well they never seen the crises coming either.Too many people keep listening to financial gurus that are pissing in the wind. Thailand is giving a clinic here.Pay attention you may learn something.

[schmutzie]

I haven't really followed the USD vs THB rates that closely, as my money is in GBP. And that currency seems to be on a bumper ride that I don't see with even the USD.

Having 10% wiped out of my savings is not the end of the world. More like a hard lesson learned.

I don't see how the appreciation of the THB will affect tourism numbers that much. Again referring to a 10% difference, I can't see how that will put off your average tourist.

I'd say a family coming here for two weeks on a budget of maybe 2000-3000GPB will not stay at home in order to save. They'll be aware that they've lost out a bit, but they'll come: Thailand still offers great value in terms of climate and options for any kind of budget. The backpackers spend so little it won't make a difference to them either.

The main threat to tourism is the political violence. And I'm seeing lots of white faces in Sukhumvit, even though that was at its height only a few months back.

I am concerned that Thailand appears to be a little ahead of the curve in Asia. And still not convinced low income population stands to gain in any way, unless the government starts pouring billions of baht into the education system.

As for the UK and the GBP I fear the worst. But she'll sort herself out eventually.

Edited September 23, 2010 by schmutzie

[schmutzie]

What goes up must come down again. I'm sure the Baht - Euro / - GBP / - USD etc. will return (more or less) to its' former value. It's just a question of time (or another crisis).

Do you mean the 25 Baht to the Dollar and 38 Baht to the GBP that it was in the early 90's ?

Thats the one, and what happened in late 90's??? a crash.

In my opinion, the one coming this time will be much worse then the previous one.

That's a pretty vague prediction. I guess you're not betting millions on this actually happening.

[keith7777]

What no one has mentioned so far is the elephant in the middle of the room. It's not that the Thai Baht is so strong. It's just another fiat currency like almost all currencies since 1971 when the final connection between the USD and gold and silver was severed. Since then the scams and schemes of the international bankers of London, New York, Switzerland, etc. have multiplied and expanded to the point where now the fiat currencies of all countries are being devalued at an increasingly accelerated rate.

It is like a race to the bottom. It's difficult to keep up with which currencies are actually devaluing faster than the others. Certainly the USD is near the top of the list of the fastest devaluing currencies. In recent years Thailand has tried to devalue their currency at the same pace as the USD in order to support exports and tourism. Now they are understandably starting to rethink that strategy. Perhaps they are following the lead of China which recently allowed it's currency to rise against the USD a little bit.

The global picture is bleak. There are no obvious healthy choices within the mainstream spectrum of "conventional wisdom" -- mostly Keynesian thinking. The only option which would eventually put the world on solid economic footing again would be a global return to sound money. It would be painful initially, but in the long run there would be the potential for economic fairness and an end to runaway government spending and always the richest 1% dominating the economies of the world.

The last 10 Economist that won a Nobel price will sharply disagree with you. Maybe you should try to proof your point after all they still pay 1 million US$ if you win.

Yes, well in order to even be considered for a Nobel prize for Economics, one must have his head ensconced where "the sun don't shine". Krugman is the classic case in point. He still asserts that the US gov't can borrow and spend its way out of this mess. Long ago the Nobel prize lost all credibility. They even gave the emperor, Barry Soetoro (Obama), the Nobel peace prize at the same time that he was escalating military activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The Nobel prize is a joke.

I am visiting outside of Thailand right now to check if there are other places that are cheaper to live and surprise surprise all prices are going up everywhere in asia.

Man talk about a damned if you do and damned if you don't.

I live in Thailand and would love to see the baht settle in at about 33 per dollar as that would keep me in the right financial place to live very well with my Thai lady.

Like the other person said, I have purchased her a car, land, cattle and things in her name, if I have to leave she will be set, except the car is not paid for and also the coubata that I just recently bought for her to work her rice field.

She could not pay if I leave and would lose both, how sad.

But as I say the prices go up and never go down when things change.

I do get the feeling that someone or some group some where is doing in the world economy for reasons beyond my small mind comprehension.

Some countries are thriving and some are going into the toilet and all will come into tolrance once the economics are worked out by these groups and all of us low paid employees all over the world will be paid 3 to 4 dollars an hour and only the groups remain well paid and can become rich.

Wonder who is leading that charge to one world order, where everyone is supposed to be equal.

[SamritT]

OK. If every country use a single currency, there will be no such problem. Should be all use gold instead?

[12DrinkMore]

What no one has mentioned so far is the elephant in the middle of the room. It's not that the Thai Baht is so strong. It's just another fiat currency like almost all currencies since 1971 when the final connection between the USD and gold and silver was severed. Since then the scams and schemes of the international bankers of London, New York, Switzerland, etc. have multiplied and expanded to the point where now the fiat currencies of all countries are being devalued at an increasingly accelerated rate.

It is like a race to the bottom. It's difficult to keep up with which currencies are actually devaluing faster than the others. Certainly the USD is near the top of the list of the fastest devaluing currencies. In recent years Thailand has tried to devalue their currency at the same pace as the USD in order to support exports and tourism. Now they are understandably starting to rethink that strategy. Perhaps they are following the lead of China which recently allowed it's currency to rise against the USD a little bit.

The global picture is bleak. There are no obvious healthy choices within the mainstream spectrum of "conventional wisdom" -- mostly Keynesian thinking. The only option which would eventually put the world on solid economic footing again would be a global return to sound money. It would be painful initially, but in the long run there would be the potential for economic fairness and an end to runaway government spending and always the richest 1% dominating the economies of the world.

That pretty much sums up the picture. From the West the UK, Ireland, Portugal, Iceland, Greece, Spain have screwed up their economies, although maybe the PIGS were always basket cases in one way or another. The US is also a basket case, not only are they suffering because of the sub-prime debacle, and because they have happily exported manufacturing jobs out to Asia, but also because they have the world's reserve currency.

As long as none of the Asian currencies goes out of line with the others, then we will see a slow appreciation of the Asian currencies, where things are chugging along fine, and a slow depreciation of the GBP, USD and EUR. I sincerely hope that the current managed float of the THB, SGD, JPY etc will continue, and we don't see any "beggar my neighbour" bullshit that Gordo tried.

Before the 1997 Asian crisis the THB was at 25/USD. I cannot see any reason why that should not return, with the GBP somewhere in the high 30's to low 40's. Nobody wants UK debt, and I expect that Merv will be buying up more bonds to keep the appearance up, that the auctions are successful.

Tourism is well under 10% of the Thai GDP, and I have noticed an increased number of Asian tourists, notably from Singapore, Malaysia, India, Hong Kong, China and Australia. For these guys the THB is more or less around the same level is was a few years ago. The only way forward for Asia is to develop the internal markets and invest here, gradually allowing the populations to become more affluent and enjoy the fruits of their own labour; and to stop subsidising the profligate western debtors' existence.

[ballpoint]

I'm waiting for it to go 1:1 so I can change all my baht to $ and buy Texas.

[fxe1200]

OK. If every country use a single currency, there will be no such problem. Should be all use gold instead?

Sure, let's use GOLD!!! My Ol' Lady has enough of it!!

[SamritT]

"Before the 1997 Asian crisis the THB was at 25/USD. " Wow, really? So now 30 Baht, still a long way to go before it hit 25.

Edited September 23, 2010 by SamritT

[loser1]

As long as Obama is spending the US silly the dollar will decline. Thailand does not have enough money to overcome that machine. Everything is up against the dollar.

The dollar is down, oil prices go up.

You conspiracy theorists can go back to sleep now.

Hi, who are the people in the avatar picture?

Edited September 23, 2010 by loser1

[swerver]

Never 50% win, 50% loose. Use your head and think about it!!! If the Baht is more stronger the Tourists go otherwhere to a cheaper place. The export of Thailand go down because the Import-Countries buy the product in a cheaper country. And last but not least the "normal" Thaipeople never become a higher income but everything start be much more expensive. Thai thinking!!! If my income go down I must sell my products more expensive!!!

A lot of food are now 15-20% more expensive than 2-3 years ago. But the people still earn only 8.000 - 15.000 Baht.

The only who win about a higher Baht are the companys who import products. But they don't give the "cheaper" import prices to the customer, so the products are not cheaper. They have a higher income in their bankaccount.

Food are higher - How right you are

Late yesterday afternoon driving back from BKK my system told me I had to eat something so I stopped at McThai at the Motorway Service area.

I ordered a Nugget Meal and nealy did fall over, 133 Baht.

A year or so ago that Nugget Meal cost 89 Baht.

[SteveB2]

I'm hoping the Baht goes to 38 Baht to the US dollar. I will stay more than the usual 4 months and maybe even marry a bar girl whom I have only known 5 days.

Oh No, not me, never done that, ever

[golferchin76]

Speaking for those who live, work, and earn Thai baht -

why have u had a pay rise??? unless you import or travel or change your currency you will not feel any effect. ie if you earn 50k baht every month, its still worth the same in thailand. no more no less. If a thai person earns 10k and spends it all in Thailand they are no better off.

Not necessarily all true. A strong Bahtt keeps the cost of living at check. First and most important, cost of fuel is cheaper for a good few months already, which itself stabilize cost of goods on the market. (I am in logistics, and it is a fact that material, semi-finished, finished goods, all needs transportation, in addition the power (electricity, which comes from fossil fuel again) to produce, and thus price of fuel will have a big impact on cost of living).

So, you might have notice that a bottle of Pepsi or milk, was not as expensive as it was when the oil was extremely expensive.

A strong Baht, works good for the majority of the population, hence the votes, that's very important for the current government. It may hurt the export sector, I say 'may' here, because Baht is not yet as strong as 29:1 (that would really hurt the exporters), and there's still room for the export sector to struggle and survive at the moment (but it is almost up to the neck, borderline now). Unfortunately I am in the export sector and I see my dollars change to Baht becomes less each month. I export more each month, but my profit become smaller every month. On the other hand, my logistics company is enjoying the benefit of stable and relatively cheap B5 price, and the two companies balance each other out.

[Kwasaki]

Baht will further rise despite measures.

Not a good idea.

[12DrinkMore]

Food are higher - How right you are

Late yesterday afternoon driving back from BKK my system told me I had to eat something so I stopped at McThai at the Motorway Service area.

I ordered a Nugget Meal and nealy did fall over, 133 Baht.

A year or so ago that Nugget Meal cost 89 Baht.

You call that FOOD????

[golferchin76]

the Baht getting stronger is great for me. I would help me able to afford going to study in U.S. My saving is now worth more in USD so no complaint here. i would be even better if it gets to 25-27 Baht/Dollar

See, someone actually gain.

You have been making what I call non-sense idiotic posts. It is one thing to read posts that are simply just venting, but reading something composed with idiocy and without logic is just too much to bear.

Do you not realize that there's a fine line between too much and too little for everything? At 25-27 Baht to a dollar, the export and tourism sector would fall first (which combines to be more than 70% of your country's economy), the subsequent high rate of unemployment would mean the domestic sector would fall second. Make it simpler for you, you have 25 baht in your pocket, very strong Baht nah can change to 1 dollar wah, but you are out of a job... How's that sound for you? Still fancy a Baht so strong that it exchanges at 25-27 to a dollar ?

Baht up or down, 50% of the people will loose, and 50% will gain. Why not let the view of those who gain be made public? . . . Dhanin Chearavanont, chairman and CEO of the Charoen Pokphand (CP) Group, said "the government should not intervene in the baht to make it weaker. This would benefit only some groups."

What's the logic in you writing that a currency fluctuation results 50% gain, 50% lose? A relatively strong Baht (the word is "relatively") would benefit more than 90% of Thai population, because cost of fuel (imported) becomes a bit cheaper. So, 1st your gasohol 91 is cheaper, and 2nd the logistics and power to produce everything is lower so prices of everything would be cheaper.

You suggested why not let the view of those who gain be made public... what's your point here? anyone who gain from currency fluctuation is a sinner, anyone who gains anything in Thailand is a sinner?

CEO of CP group of course would say something like "the government should not intervene in the baht to make it weaker. This would benefit only some groups." Instead of saying something to the media, he really should just shut the <deleted> up, because he is not a financial minister of this country. CP is the largest business conglomerate in Thailand, serving mostly domestic markets. A weak Baht would mean increase in the corporation's cost of goods sold, resulting a worse financial statement, and of course, his income as a CEO.

[golferchin76]

The problem is easy to solve. Convert all Thai Baht to US Dollar, then abolish the Thai Baht. There will be no currency fluctuation ever ever again. http://answers.yahoo...22010551AAuJHoh

<deleted> is this about? the forum support freedom of speech, but not idiotic posts.

OK. If every country use a single currency, there will be no such problem. Should be all use gold instead?

you are helplessly stupid and shame on you thinking this is fun or in anyway cute.

"Before the 1997 Asian crisis the THB was at 25/USD. " Wow, really? So now 30 Baht, still a long way to go before it hit 25.

When it is approaching 25 Baht to a dollar, prepare to lose your job. You might not be so happy after all. And if you still think stupid foolish posts sound cute to farangs, think again.

[jacobus]

What no one has mentioned so far is the elephant in the middle of the room. It's not that the Thai Baht is so strong. It's just another fiat currency like almost all currencies since 1971 when the final connection between the USD and gold and silver was severed. Since then the scams and schemes of the international bankers of London, New York, Switzerland, etc. have multiplied and expanded to the point where now the fiat currencies of all countries are being devalued at an increasingly accelerated rate.

It is like a race to the bottom. It's difficult to keep up with which currencies are actually devaluing faster than the others. Certainly the USD is near the top of the list of the fastest devaluing currencies. In recent years Thailand has tried to devalue their currency at the same pace as the USD in order to support exports and tourism. Now they are understandably starting to rethink that strategy. Perhaps they are following the lead of China which recently allowed it's currency to rise against the USD a little bit.

The global picture is bleak. There are no obvious healthy choices within the mainstream spectrum of "conventional wisdom" -- mostly Keynesian thinking. The only option which would eventually put the world on solid economic footing again would be a global return to sound money. It would be painful initially, but in the long run there would be the potential for economic fairness and an end to runaway government spending and always the richest 1% dominating the economies of the world.

The last 10 Economist that won a Nobel price will sharply disagree with you. Maybe you should try to proof your point after all they still pay 1 million US$ if you win.

Yes, well in order to even be considered for a Nobel prize for Economics, one must have his head ensconced where "the sun don't shine". Krugman is the classic case in point. He still asserts that the US gov't can borrow and spend its way out of this mess. Long ago the Nobel prize lost all credibility. They even gave the emperor, Barry Soetoro (Obama), the Nobel peace prize at the same time that he was escalating military activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The Nobel prize is a joke.

Your wisdom is greater then theirs? Or you just can not handle an Intelligent man in the White House that is part Black?

Sad but true, funny man. Understanding this situation does not require a great deal of intelligence though. It's really just common sense. Unfortunately, the longer these yoyos like Krugman go to school, the stupider they get. This is especially true in the field of economics. They can parrot economics textbooks chapter and verse, but could not see the financial crisis coming.

One of the main reasons why the US economy is in such dire trouble is because of too much government debt and too much government spending. This clown, Krugman, thinks that you can solve the problem by more borrowing and more spending. That's like saying help the alcoholic by giving him more booze. It just does not make sense.

And it figures you would play the race card. I am a black man from the USA, myself. Can you handle a black man seeing through the bull__t this well? Can you handle a black man understanding this economic situation so much better than you do? Obama is an uncle tom, tap-dancing fool, owned by the wall street bankers.

Start understanding what's really going on with the economy. You're not going to learn from Krugman. Try reading a few articles at lewrockwell.com, for some good lessons in economics.

It's common sense that is needed to solve this mess, not noble [sic] prize winners.

[RKASA]

If it were not for a weaker dollar and euro would they be able to claim economic success as a result of the exchange - how much investment is repatriated baht in flight from weaker currencies and how long will this last if the strong baht is just a lagging indicator of a weaker currency with your best trading outlets. If the problem is weaker partners then softer baht won't change a thing, sales will still fall at some point as your customers still need disposable cash or credit.

Spend spend spend - goes around comes around - manage the surplus - after all you can't take in with you. Your exports are paid for with imports - did they not pound that into your head during macro 101

You will see Wen and Obama are having some close talks and China said trade infrastructure needs adjustment i.e. they are going to buy stuff and keep the debts they have worth something.

The dollar will slowing recover and Thailand will survive. Nothing to do with any magic government here.

[quiksilva]

I just got back from an Asian economic brief by Dataconsult, who predict that Yuan could appreciate 4% over the next year and that the other Asian economies will follow it up at about the same rate, although the the Won and Baht could appreciate quicker, and will find it hard to counter that pressure.

They painted a good overall outlook for Asian economies despite this. Exports should continue to grow in Thailand, recent growth has been due to the fact that exports to China is not purely for assembly and export but because they are consuming these products, and so is ASEAN.

They warned that in their estimation a 30% probability of a double dip recession in US and Europe could see Asian Pac growth cut by approx one third.

[Acharn]

Are they trying to make thailand so expensive no one will come here ? Why don't they follow japan and try to de value the baht !

It's nothing to do with the Thai government. The dollar is weakening because the Chinese government is moving into the Japanese yen rather than dollars. Given the persistent trade deficit under Bush's economic policies, it looks like the only way America can restore its balance of trade is to let the dollar weaken further. Now the question is will the Japanese and the EOCD let them, or will they prop up the dollar by buying more of them? I guess the Thai government could do more buying of U.S. dollars, but I don't think the government share of GDP here is high enough to give them real clout in the forex market. Yeah, it's going to make Thailand more expensive for Americans, but it's been coming for years and is really long overdue. The prolonged depression in the U.S. means that few people have enough money for foreign travel, anyway.

[12DrinkMore]

I just got back from an Asian economic brief by Dataconsult, who predict that Yuan could appreciate 4% over the next year and that the other Asian economies will follow it up at about the same rate, although the the Won and Baht could appreciate quicker, and will find it hard to counter that pressure.

They painted a good overall outlook for Asian economies despite this. Exports should continue to grow in Thailand, recent growth has been due to the fact that exports to China is not purely for assembly and export but because they are consuming these products, and so is ASEAN.

They warned that in their estimation a 30% probability of a double dip recession in US and Europe could see Asian Pac growth cut by approx one third.

So without the "double dip"

(which IMO is <deleted>, as the statisticians are splitting hairs over one or two percent and the respective governments are simultaneously putting up purchase tax/VAT and fiddling the fiugres anyway)

what is the projected growth rate from Dataconsult for Asia?