Are We On The Brink Of A Major Global Stock Market(S) Crash?

[ExpatJ]

Reading the financial press it seems that there is a growing consensus that the Ireland bailout will spread to Portugal and Spain. Spain would need at least a 500 billion Euro bail out if it came to that which would likely break up the Euro system. The korean unrest has also upset the markets.

I am invested in BRIC and Thai stock markets- i am really considering selling out and taking a loss to prevent even greater expected losses if any of the above issues get worse- anyone else thinking or have already sold out their stocks?

[ExpatJ]

This is the worse case scenario according to the Financial Times today:

The Irish rescue package fails to restore confidence, and its banks haemorrhage deposits. Contagion spreads to other countries, blowing out risk premiums on Portuguese, Spanish and Italian sovereign debt to untenable levels. With Greece struggling to meet its tough IMF conditions, it becomes clear that the peripheral countries are deep in trouble.

The eurozone and IMF try to cobble together a rescue package for Portugal, but rising public discontent in Germany brings negotiations to a halt. Finally, Angela Merkel announces Berlin cannot support any more bail-outs without imposing debt restructuring on bondholders of both banks and sovereigns.

The Greek and Irish rescue programmes are suspended and governments in the peripheral countries default on at least some of their debts and announce forced debt writedowns. The knock-on effects on the balance sheets of banks elsewhere in the European Union which hold the bonds force governments in Germany, France and the UK into another public recapitalisation of banks.

Public fury forces the defaulting countries out of the eurozone and they set up their own currencies or band together in a new peripheral euro. The new currencies plunge against the core euro, forcing big defaults on euro-denominated mortgages and corporate bonds. Demonstrations erupt across Europe. The union becomes ungovernable.

The US dollar and the gold price shoot higher as investors seek havens. Global imbalances widen again, a wave of protectionism sweeps the US and the world plunges into full-scale currency and trade war.

[flying]

Actually I was kind of surprised at how long it took for Ireland's turn at bat.

Agreed also thought will spread to Portugal and Spain next.... possibly another I in there for Italy?

What you say in your 2nd post about the USD safe haven is funny isn't it? All things considered I mean.

But it is true as you say....folks always run to it...

[BigBikeBKK]

Wow, sounds kind of cool. Now if only the contagion would spread to Thailand and knock the dam_n Baht off it's pedestal...

[chainarong]

Something is gonna happen, no bale out this time , a lot of good people will get hurt and the fat pigs with their snouts in the trough, stiff tits ol chap.

[el jefe]

The korean unrest has also upset the markets.

I've sold all my North Korean holdings.

[Naam]

The korean unrest has also upset the markets.

I've sold all my North Korean holdings.

i am looking for a buyer for that seaside resort i own in North Korea

[ExpatJ]

Well i was seriously thinking of selling my thai stocks this morning- turns out to have been one of my best days for some time- weird!

[djayz]

I hope not, this is just too BIG to fail...

[phaethon]

Are We On The Brink Of A Major Global Stock Market(S) Crash?

Yes. And a nuclear exchange between the Koreas, and an influenza pandemic and a major volcanic event in Indonesia and an Atlantic megatsunami and... Eric Clapton is coming...

Remember, cock the hammer before you put the barrel in your mouth...

[thrilled]

Some of the asia countries are in better shape than the dow jones,I would look toward india.The whole world is A little shakey.Remember cash is king.

[Trickcyclist]

massive equity bull market on the way-there is nowhere else for money to go unless you can find some alternative investment opportunity.

This should rejuvenate other markets and buoy - up the banks and get the merry-go-round moving again.

[Bakseedaa]

Wow, sounds kind of cool. Now if only the contagion would spread to Thailand and knock the dam_n Baht off it's pedestal...

Within 6 months the Thai Baht will be 25 to the 1 US$ wait and see but nothing is surer ..!!!!

[thaihome]

...I am invested in BRIC and Thai stock markets- i am really considering selling out and taking a loss...

If you are taking a loss if you sell now, you must have come in very late.

You might want to do a bit of research on what is called the "Greed-Hope-Fear Cycle" or the Individual Investor Cycle or the Small Investor Syndrome

TH

[midas]

massive equity bull market on the way-there is nowhere else for money to go unless you can find some alternative investment opportunity.

This should rejuvenate other markets and buoy - up the banks and get the merry-go-round moving again.

but if what you are saying is correct, why would the " insiders " be selling

right now ?

Insider Selling To Buying Ratio Approaches Five Digits, Hits Record 8,280x In Week Ending November 19.

In the first full week of the latest iteration of post-QE2 POMO, which was supposed to see a dramatic ramp in stocks, we have seen the biggest insider buying to selling imbalance since the data has been tracked. Overall, selling by S&P500 insiders was 8,279.5x times greater than buying (per Bloomberg). There were 5 insider buys for a total of $150,673, and 117 sales for a total of $1,247,500,249.

[Naam]

Insider Selling To Buying Ratio Approaches Five Digits, Hits Record 8,280x In Week Ending November 19.

you keep on focussing on the Greatest Nation on Earth™ Midas as if other countries/economic areas do not exit

[Naam]

Wow, sounds kind of cool. Now if only the contagion would spread to Thailand and knock the dam_n Baht off it's pedestal...

Within 6 months the Thai Baht will be 25 to the 1 US$ wait and see but nothing is surer ..!!!!

and the LORD keeps on sending prophets. HALLELUJAH AMEN!

[Chunky1]

The day the dollar died

Edited November 25, 2010 by george

[midas]

Insider Selling To Buying Ratio Approaches Five Digits, Hits Record 8,280x In Week Ending November 19.

you keep on focussing on the Greatest Nation on Earth™ Midas as if other countries/economic areas do not exit

that is because when Trickcyclist referred to a " massive equity bull market on the way " -I assumed he

was talking about the stockmarket in the Greatest Nation on Earth™ as opposed to The Mongolian Stock Exchange

[roamer]

This is the worse case scenario according to the Financial Times today:

The Irish rescue package fails to restore confidence, and its banks haemorrhage deposits. Contagion spreads to other countries, blowing out risk premiums on Portuguese, Spanish and Italian sovereign debt to untenable levels. With Greece struggling to meet its tough IMF conditions, it becomes clear that the peripheral countries are deep in trouble.

The eurozone and IMF try to cobble together a rescue package for Portugal, but rising public discontent in Germany brings negotiations to a halt. Finally, Angela Merkel announces Berlin cannot support any more bail-outs without imposing debt restructuring on bondholders of both banks and sovereigns.

The Greek and Irish rescue programmes are suspended and governments in the peripheral countries default on at least some of their debts and announce forced debt writedowns. The knock-on effects on the balance sheets of banks elsewhere in the European Union which hold the bonds force governments in Germany, France and the UK into another public recapitalisation of banks.

Public fury forces the defaulting countries out of the eurozone and they set up their own currencies or band together in a new peripheral euro. The new currencies plunge against the core euro, forcing big defaults on euro-denominated mortgages and corporate bonds. Demonstrations erupt across Europe. The union becomes ungovernable.

The US dollar and the gold price shoot higher as investors seek havens. Global imbalances widen again, a wave of protectionism sweeps the US and the world plunges into full-scale currency and trade war.

Worst case scenario maybe but even the most optimistic of us would have to admit there are some very shaky domino's in there.

[lannarebirth]

I wish more people thought like you. A lot more preferably.

[MikeOKitches]

Public fury forces the defaulting countries out of the eurozone and they set up their own currencies or band together in a new peripheral euro. The new currencies plunge against the core euro, forcing big defaults on euro-denominated mortgages and corporate bonds. Demonstrations erupt across Europe. The union becomes ungovernable.

The US dollar and the gold price shoot higher as investors seek havens. Global imbalances widen again, a wave of protectionism sweeps the US and the world plunges into full-scale currency and trade war.

Living here in the USA, this would be welcomed by most Americans. Our USA dollar has been pummeled badly in the past several years while other world currencies have gained. It appears the pendulum may be swinging back?

[MikeOKitches]

Within 6 months the Thai Baht will be 25 to the 1 US$ wait and see but nothing is surer ..!!!!

Hope not.

[MikeOKitches]

Outstanding video! Very sobering and scary for us here in the USA! Thanks for sharing.

I'm getting out of here (USA) ASAP! My taget date for emmigration to LOS through either a Retirement Visa or Marriage Visa - year 2011 for certain.

[Chunky1]

it's funny how the mayan 2012 could come true.

[flying]

Outstanding video! Very sobering and scary for us here in the USA! Thanks for sharing.

I'm getting out of here (USA) ASAP! My taget date for emmigration to LOS through either a Retirement Visa or Marriage Visa - year 2011 for certain.

Just remember if your taking that video to heart......Your leaving the US? Your funds are? USD? Future income/pension/SS is via? USD?

If so you have some things to consider.....If taking that video to heart I mean.

[jazzbo]

I enjoy these 'When Did You Stop Beating Your Wife"-type headlines on ThaiVisa -- You can be assured that anybody who really knows and/or could precipitate such a crash does not post on this Forum.

[ExpatJ]

I enjoy these 'When Did You Stop Beating Your Wife"-type headlines on ThaiVisa -- You can be assured that anybody who really knows and/or could precipitate such a crash does not post on this Forum.

"You can be assured that anybody who really knows and/or could precipitate such a crash"

Until recently i would have agreed with this. But one thing the economic crash (fall of Lehman, bears etc) showed -its that even the best financial brains had no idea that it was coming until it was happening- thats one of the scariest aspects.