Censure Debate Will Set The Tone For Thai Election

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Censure debate will set the tone for election

By Avudh Panananda

The Nation

Pheu Thai MP Mingkwan Saengsuwan has emerged as a serious contender for the post of prime minister at the upcoming election.

In terms of charisma, Mingkwan is no match for incumbent Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, though their competition involves issues that are far more complicated than just individual attributes.

The outcome of the election will hinge on the comparative strength of the Democrat and Pheu Thai parties, and Abhisit and Mingkwan share one weakness - despite their popularity with people in urban areas, they are relatively unknown to rural voters.

The Democrats have been running the show for two years now, and have been concentrating on social welfare via benefits like 15 years of free schooling and allowances for the elderly. The ruling party is doing what it can to reach out to the grassroots level. The Democrats experienced a bitter defeat during the last general election due to a lack of rural support.

The main opposition party is also trying to win over grassroots voters to catapult itself back into power. Also, the no-confidence motion to be filed today should set the tone for Pheu Thai's campaign strategy.

Mingkwan has been designated as the replacement prime minister for the censure motion, which means the opposition has decided to prop him up as the figurehead to try to dethrone Abhisit.

Outspoken opposition lawmakers, including Chalerm Yoobamrung and Jatuporn Promphan, have been slated to spearhead the election campaign and sway rural voters, to compensate for Mingkwan's lack of popular appeal outside large cities. To offset the Democrat Party's economic team, fugitive ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra plans to release a book on the economy.

In the censure debate, Pheu Thai Party will target the prime minister and nine Cabinet members from both the Democrat and Bhum Jai Thai parties. Since the grilling will touch on alleged irregularities, nine of 10 targets also face impeachment. Unless the opposition can uncover fresh evidence against the coalition, the censure is likely to end up looking like a political theatre where coalition and opposition lawmakers strictly follow a script.

Since an early election is likely to follow the censure debate, the opposition will most likely grill the government as a curtain raiser to sway voters. Likewise, the coalition will expect its rebuttals to undermine the opposition ahead of the actual campaign.

Since the censure is targeted just at Democrat and Bhum Jai Thai, it will come as no surprise if Pheu Thai ends up trying to woo junior coalition partners, such as Chart Thai Pattana and Ruam Chart Pattana. Based on projections, there is practically no possibility of a single-party government. The Democrat and Pheu Thai parties will just have to outwit one another in forming the next coalition.

The Democrats appear to be keeping cards close to their chest, while the main opposition party has clearly burned all its bridges with Bhum Jai Thai. It is targeting four party members in the censure debate, which covers both factions.

The first person to undergo a grilling will be Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai, from the Somsak Thepsuthin faction, while Interior Minister Chaovarat Chanweerakul from the Newin Chidchob faction is no stranger to censure.

The upcoming debate will cover hot issues like the Thai-Cambodian border dispute, the country's economic woes and last year's riots involving the red-shirt movement. The coalition is expected to survive the debate, but the side that comes out on top will get momentum for the election campaign.

-- The Nation 2011-03-01

[KKvampire]

When attacked by Poo Thai and its Red shirt terrorist support , Abhisit and allies remember 'Return fire with interest" Lots of ammunition to use against the Hypocrites and liars of the former disbanded illegal party.

Edited March 1, 2011 by KKvampire

[virtualtraveller]

It's interesting, the timing of this. With an dissolution pledged imminently, and the oil and food prices set to go haywire in the next few months, it might have been wiser for the Dems to abandon the mid year budget milestone and instead call an earlier election before it gets worse. They could have trumped Puea Thai by avoiding this censure, which is nothing more than a pre-election mud slinging match.

Peua Thai's censures generally focus on one of two scandalous issues (like the temple shootings last time) and bang on and on, often with sketchy evidence that the educated urbanites scoff at while the rural folk take as fact. The Dems must have calculated that on this basis they can probably come out of the debate with interest by exposing the lies of Jatuporn Prompan et al. With Mingwan's soft debating and Chalerm threatening to keep quiet it's a good calculated gamble, hopefully it doesn't backfire for them, or the oil and cooking oil prices don't go bezerk in the next three months.

[Arkady]

Jathuporn has also claimed he will reveal irrefutable evidence that Abhisit made use of his British nationality while studying in the UK. Now that revolting Robert Amsterdam's argument about the ICC seems to have lost all credibility, Jathuporn's remaining point is apparently that knowingly being British as well as Thai is a breach of political ethics, since it is not illegal for a dual national to be PM. LOL. What are political ethics in Thailand or anywhere else? The real point is of course to whip up nationalist and racist sentiments by portraying Abhisit as less Thai and more of an elitist forcing foreign ideas on the people.

Anyway things are not looking at all good for PT in this debate. Mingkwan is ineffectual and Jathuporn has a one track mind that only focuses on red shirt issues. Even if Chalerm agrees to join in, he has lost his magic touch in digging up dirt and Abhisit easily runs rings round his old fashioned style of presentation and debate. The Dems and PJT will have to work hard to lose this one.

Edited March 1, 2011 by Arkady